Iran: All Iran's restrictions in JCPoA are over

[TruthHurtz]

Just wait, when comes to self preservation or conflict, Republic picks self preservation everytime.

Nothing they have done has crossed any country’s major red line. Those thinking that Iran will leave NPT and race to a nuclear weapon are delusional.

Regardless of what Trump says, US was expecting a counter strike in accordance with international law and as long as it was minor US would let it slide.

Some material damage to an airbase in exchange for taking the most infamous commander of the Iranian legions off the board is an easy decision that any commander would make.

The US economy would collapse and the world would fall into a recession if they started another war in the Persian Gulf. It's not just Iran that needs self-preservation, Trumps entire presidency runs on his promise of no war.

Trump backed down after Iran's retaliation, despite explicitly stating that any retaliation would result in a response. He's all bluster, the US does not have nearly enough assets in the region to take Iran and her proxies.

The damage was not minor, the Danish soldier interviewed claimed multiple helicopters were cut in half. There was extensive damage to operational infrastructure for maintaining air assets such as drones. That was one of the key points of the operation, to reduce US operational capability in the ME and to demonstrate Iran's missile capabilities. EVERYONE now acknowledges the accuracy and devastation of Iran's missiles.

 

[Blue In Green]

The US economy would collapse and the world would fall into a recession if they started another war in the Persian Gulf. It's not just Iran that needs self-preservation, Trumps entire presidency runs on his promise of no war.

Trump backed down after Iran's retaliation, despite explicitly stating that any retaliation would result in a response. He's all bluster, the US does not have nearly enough assets in the region to take Iran and her proxies.

The damage was not minor, the Danish soldier interviewed claimed multiple helicopters were cut in half. There was extensive damage to operational infrastructure for maintaining air assets such as drones. That was one of the key points of the operation, to reduce US operational capability in the ME and to demonstrate Iran's missile capabilities. EVERYONE now acknowledges the accuracy and devastation of Iran's missiles.

I think everyone (or many at least) wanted a more 'definitive' or 'awe inspiring' missile strike, one that encompassed many more targets than the ones we got in this limited but resolute show of force.

Iran definitively could have gotten away with more visible structural damage if it had wanted to, that's a given.

 

[Ich]

I read in german press that Iran warns Germany/France/GB for leaving jcpoa. And then i read in german press that the MerkelHo said that Iran breache the jcpoa and so germany will side with trump "plans". And then i read in german press that after that Iran said it would even leave NPT if this happen.

 

[Blue In Green]

I read in german press that Iran warns Germany/France/GB for leaving jcpoa. And then i read in german press that the MerkelHo said that Iran breache the jcpoa and so germany will side with trump "plans". And then i read in german press that after that Iran said it would even leave NTP if this happen.

The JCPOA is dead but leaving the NPT is another ball game as that adds credence to the "Iran quickly building nuke" story.

Staying in the NPT but having an expanding Nuclear program is smart as it will allow Iran to generation and learn from nuclear research whilst having the option to go nuclear (however unlikely) when they deem it fit to do so. Obviously then the ball would be in America and Israel's court on how they would want to proceed in such a scenario since they've been saying ad nauseam how they will strike without hesitation if Iran is 'building a nuke', whatever that actually means.

 

[TruthHurtz]

I think we should adopt


I think everyone (or many at least) wanted a more 'definitive' or 'awe inspiring' missile strike, one that encompassed many more targets than the ones we got in this limited but resolute show of force.

Iran definitively could have gotten away with more visible structural damage if it had wanted to, that's a given.

Agreed, personally I would've preferred around 30 strikes on Al-Asad alone with token strikes on other bases. Maximise material, minimise personnel damage. But what's done is done, keep in mind there's only been a temporary deescalation, tensions are still very high and anything can happen in the following weeks. No one would've predicted Soleimani being illegally assassinated or Iran retaliating, it's been a crazy start to the new year.

 

[Blue In Green]

Agreed, personally I would've preferred around 30 strikes on Al-Asad alone with token strikes on other bases. Maximise material, minimise personnel damage. But what's done is done, keep in mind there's only been a temporary deescalation, tensions are still very high and anything can happen in the following weeks. No one would've predicted Soleimani being illegally assassinated or Iran retaliating, it's been a crazy start to the new year.

Yep, my sentiments exactly but not we have another flame war starting between Arabs and Iranians but this time it seems like it's going to get personal.

Care to join?

 

[TruthHurtz]

Yep, my sentiments exactly but not we have another flame war starting between Arabs and Iranians but this time it seems like it's going to get personal.

Care to join?

Already typing up my response.

 

[Ich]

The JCPOA is dead but leaving the NPT is another ball game as that adds credence to the "Iran quickly building nuke" story.

Staying in the NPT but having an expanding Nuclear program is smart as it will allow Iran to generation and learn from nuclear research whilst having the option to go nuclear (however unlikely) when they deem it fit to do so. Obviously then the ball would be in America and Israel's court on how they would want to proceed in such a scenario since they've been saying ad nauseam how they will strike without hesitation if Iran is 'building a nuke', whatever that actually means.

What is smart if the sanctions will iran not develop as good as she can and the US still bomb iranian troops in syria and elswhere? What kind of smart is it? If Iran anyway is sanctioned and get no help from other western countries but threats, then why should Iran be nice child if it suffer anyway?

 

[Blue In Green]

What is smart if the sanctions will iran not develop as good as she can and the US still bomb iranian troops in syria and elswhere? What kind of smart is it? If Iran anyway is sanctioned and get no help from other western countries but threats, then why should Iran be nice child if it suffer anyway?

The day-after Iran builds a bomb things will still be quite bad economically but the geo-political situation will change for sure. The thing is the United States will have the best reason to get many nations on board and the U.N. to really tighten the screw full-bore. Not building a nuke and leaving the prospect of another JCPOA (or something akin to) whilst expanding your nuclear capability, civilian only, is smart since you're aren't leaving the NPT (sticking to an accord shows consistency) and you aren't adding useless fear by outright detonating a nuke which many are just scared of Iran or any nation doing due to the stigma/fear around it.

I mean yes you're right, Iran is being punished but it was going to be punished no matter what it did. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

I don't know fully of what I say, I'm just riffing on this matter to be completely sincere with you so take my responses with a grain of salt lol.

 

[Ich]

to really tighten the screw full-bore.

It is already. There is no much increase possible. Even iranian ships were sized in open waters. The only way to lower the pressure is to build the bomb and ICBM. The "crying" of EU at the moment is that they know if Iran has the bomb then they have nothing more to say Iran this and Iran that. Its all about the bomb. If the bomb is there, then all shut up. Take a look at PRK.

 

[Blue In Green]

Already typing up my response.

This is a shit forum isn't?

Fucking man...

It is already. There is no much increase possible. Even iranian ships were sized in open waters. The only way to lower the pressure is to build the bomb and ICBM. The "crying" of EU at the moment is that they know if Iran has the bomb then they have nothing more to say Iran this and Iran that. Its all about the bomb. If the bomb is there, then all shut up. Take a look at PRK.

I can accept your take on it, I'm worried about the 'fallout' of all this bullshit. Trump's administration under the direct influence on Netanyahu are creating a really dangerous situation, one that many nations the world over will feel whether they want to or not.

But yes, there really isn't anything left to sanction, it's all been sanctioned if it was sanctionable. Idk what else they could put on the list, air maybe?

 

[OldTwilight]

Look like even the guys who really hurt me by calling me 'coward' because I was repeating 'Iran should have nukes' are reaching the moment which they understand my reasoning ....

http://www.military.ir/forums/topic...خاورمیانه/?page=4&tab=comments#comment-527985

 

[TruthHurtz]

The day-after Iran builds a bomb things will still be quite bad economically but the geo-political situation will change for sure. The thing is the United States will have the best reason to get many nations on board and the U.N. to really tighten the screw full-bore. Not building a nuke and leaving the prospect of another JCPOA (or something akin to) whilst expanding your nuclear capability, civilian only, is smart since you're aren't leaving the NPT (sticking to an accord shows consistency) and you aren't adding useless fear by outright detonating a nuke which many are just scared of Iran or any nation doing due to the stigma/fear around it.

I mean yes you're right, Iran is being punished but it was going to be punished no matter what it did. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

I don't know fully of what I say, I'm just riffing on this matter to be completely sincere with you so take my responses with a grain of salt lol.

Once and if Iran acquires nuclear weapons then many avenues for direct action now become possible. Closing the Hormuz strait and inflicting devastating attacks on US and gulfie forces now become possible without fear of nuclear retaliation. Iran could then bleed western European powers of desperately needed resources without military retaliation, due to the fear that it could culminate in nuclear war. Weakened Europe = weakened US. Iran could literally pull a UNO reverse card and muscle their way out of sanctions.

This is all obviously hypothetical and many parts of it can go wrong as it usually does. But prior to recent events I genuinely believed Iran had no desire for a nuclear weapon. Now I'm not too sure and I think I'm among the growing number of people that believe that if Iran is to survive, they must develop nuclear weapons.

 

[Blue In Green]

Once and if Iran acquires nuclear weapons then many avenues for direct action now become possible. Closing the Hormuz strait and inflicting devastating attacks on US and gulfie forces now become possible without fear of nuclear retaliation. Iran could then bleed western European powers of desperately needed resources without military retaliation, due to the fear that it could culminate in nuclear war. Weakened Europe = weakened US. Iran could literally pull a UNO reverse card and muscle their way out of sanctions.

This is all obviously hypothetical and many parts of it can go wrong as it usually does. But prior to recent events I genuinely believed Iran had no desire for a nuclear weapon. Now I'm not too sure and I think I'm among the growing number of people that believe that if Iran is to survive, they must develop nuclear weapons.

I mean I hope the nuclear card is indeed being thought about by Iranian officials since diplomatic overtures don't seem to be panning out as planned lol.

 

[Ich]

Me think Israel isnt a problem no more since the missiles hit the US bases and showed accuracy. So Israel knows now that even with conventional warheads it will be flatten. The bomb will just be on top cause there are only 2 or 3 needed for Israel. So Israel is no threat anymore cause they will die if anything goes wrong. So only US is left. And here Iran needs a 15000 km ICBM with the bomb. And then also US will think twice what to do. Also Iran can make defensive treaties with other bomb-countries like PRK. So there will be pressure from 2+ sides against US. For me it is only a matter of decades till US is broken.