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Indonesia Trade Data (Monthly basis), starting from January 2022

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I would to show Indonesia Trade data release and to compare it with prediction coming from Reuters with their economists pool. Reuters prediction usually release 2 days before Indonesia statistic bureau. We can see the tendency on the economists compiled by Reuters and the comparison with the real data.
 
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JANUARY 2022 (Very Pessimist prediction as if we only rely on coal export )

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Indonesia coal export ban nearly wipes out Jan trade surplus​

Reuters

JAKARTA, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Indonesia's monthly trade surplus is expected to plummet 80% to $190 million in January after the world's top coal exporter clamped down on shipments last month, and as imports gained momentum, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.

Polling by Vivek Mishra and Tushar Goenka
; Additional reporting by Fransiska Nangoy; Writing by Gayatri Suroyo; Editing by Kanupriya Kapoor


@Bilal9 if we see the name of the economists are Indian origin (Viviek Mishra and Tushar Goenka) has the say here to pick the selected economist...

I wonder how they like to be pessimist on Indonesian economy while we know many Indian economist has shown bias on their own India economy by showing very optimist prediction

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Real data

Indonesia recorded US$930 million trade surplus in January 2022: BPS​

15th February 2022

Jakarta (ANTARA) - Indonesia's trade balance recorded a surplus of US$930 million in January 2022, with an export value of $19.16 billion and imports worth $18.23 billion, according to Statistics Indonesia (BPS).

The amount of the surplus has increased 25.31 percent year-on-year.

"Our trade balance has recorded a surplus for 21 consecutive months," Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics at BPS, Setianto, noted during a virtual press conference here on Tuesday.

Setianto remarked that non-oil and gas commodities that mostly contributed to the surplus were animal and vegetable fats and oils, mineral fuels, as well as iron and steel.

 
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February Reuters Prediction ( again pessimist prediction and large deviation from real data )

POLL-Indonesia Feb trade surplus seen widening on strong commodity exports​

PUBLISHER
Reuters

PUBLISHED
MAR 14, 2022 1:46AM EDT



JAKARTA, March 14 (Reuters) - Indonesia's export growth likely accelerated in February due to high commodity prices, as the conflict between Ukraine and Russia fueled fears of supply squeezes and as authorities in Jakarta lifted a ban on coal exports, a Reuters poll showed.

The Southeast Asian country's trade surplus is expected to widen to $1.66 billion in February, up from around $930 million in January, according to the median forecast of 15 analysts.

The resource-rich country has been enjoying an export boom riding on an cyclical upswing of commodity prices, allowing it to record a trade surplus every month since May 2020.

February's exports are forecast to show a jump of 37.32% on a yearly basis, up from January's 25.31% rise, while February imports were seen up 40.04%, compared with 36.77% a month prior.

ANZ analysts, who predicted a $2.65 billion trade surplus for February, said exports received a boost from the lifting of the coal export ban, as well as higher prices of commodities such as coal and palm oil.

Indonesia, the world's biggest exporter of thermal coal, stopped shipments of the fuel for part of January due to low inventory levels at domestic power plants, in a move that wiped $2 billion of mineral fuel exports.

Analysts had previously forecast a moderation of commodity prices this year, but Bank Mandiri economist Faisal Rachman said the war in Ukraine could prolong the commodities' boom, which would help Indonesia's current account position this year.

"There is an increasing possibility that 2022 current account balance (will) record a narrower deficit than our initial forecast of -2.15% of GDP," Faisal said. Indonesia registered a current account surplus equivalent to 0.3% of GDP in 2021.

"The length of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will determine the matter."

(Polling by Arsh Mogre and Vivek Mishra in Bengaluru Writing by Gayatri Suroyo Editing by Ed Davies)

((gayatri.suroyo@thomsonreuters.com; +622129927609; Reuters Messaging: gayatri.suroyo.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))


Another Indian names :cool:

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Real Data


Indonesia Posts $3.83 Billion Trade Surplus in February: BPS​


Eko Nordiansyah • 15 March 2022 13:18

Jakarta: The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) announced today that Indonesia's trade balance recorded a surplus of USD3.83 billion in February 2022.

Last month, Indonesia's exports reached USD20.46 billion, while the country's imports were recorded at USD16.64 billion.

Head of BPS Margo Yuwono said Indonesia's trade balance continued its positive trend.

In fact, Indonesia has experienced a trade balance surplus for 22 months or almost two years.

"Indonesia's trade balance in February experienced a surplus of USD 3.83 billion," he said in a video conference, Tuesday, March 15, 2022

 
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March Data Reuters prediction

Indonesia's trade surplus seen narrowing in March - Reuters Poll​

14 Apr 2022 05:26PM(Updated: 14 Apr 2022 05:26PM)

JAKARTA : Indonesia likely registered a smaller trade surplus for March, as the rate of growth of both imports and exports slowed from the preceding month, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

The median forecast of 11 economists in the poll was for Southeast Asia's biggest economy to post a $2.89 billion trade surplus in March, down from February’s $3.82 billion.

(Polling by Swathi Nair in Bengaluru; Writing by Stefanno Sulaiman; Editing by Ed Davies)


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Real Data, this data hasnt been shown on news yet,

Export March : 26. 50 billion USD
Import March : 21.97 billion USD

Trade Surplus : 4.53 billion USD

Actually larger than February trade surplus, almost two times larger than their prediction, another prove Reuters prediction is not reliable
 
AlhamduliLLAH, so far we have beaten the pessimistic forecast for 3 consecutive months in the first 3 months of 2022.
 
@Bilal9 if we see the name of the economists are Indian origin (Viviek Mishra and Tushar Goenka) has the say here to pick the selected economist...

I wonder how they like to be pessimist on Indonesian economy while we know many Indian economist has shown bias on their own India economy by showing very optimist prediction

Sanghi Modi supporter scumbags operating on a global level.

You will be amazed to know the scale of the Modi-supported Godi-Media propaganda machine (WION is just one of these mouthpieces).

Maybe one of the Pakistani brothers has more information on these propaganda websites.

Sadly these low-rent Modi-supporter "journalist" scumbags have now infiltrated even reputed news organizations like Reuters, because they charge so little as compensation.

Indonesian govt. should question Reuters why low-rent journalists sitting in India can accurately "poll" news on Indonesian economy and why no one vets the accuracy of these third-rate journalists' biased work.

Hindutva idiots simply don't like good news in any Muslim majority country.
 
Sanghi Modi supporter scumbags operating on a global level.

You will be amazed to know the scale of the Modi-supported Godi-Media propaganda machine (WION is just one of these mouthpieces).

Maybe one of the Pakistani brothers has more information on these propaganda websites.

Sadly these low-rent Modi-supporter "journalist" scumbags have now infiltrated even reputed news organizations like Reuters, because they charge so little as compensation.

Indonesian govt. should question Reuters why low-rent journalists sitting in India can accurately "poll" news on Indonesian economy and why no one vets the accuracy of these third-rate journalists' biased work.

Hindutva idiots simply don't like good news in any Muslim majority country.

Actually the journalist is Indonesian as there is Reuters office in Jakarta, but the data pooling is managed by Indian economists, as I believe those Indians are economists instead of journalist.

Reuters basically hire best graduates within the country they are operating, as I have seen that Reuters office in Jakarta like to hire graduate from University of Indonesia Economic faculty, the best university for economics study as majority of our Finance Minister comes from there, including current Finance Minister, Sri Mulyani.

Indonesian economist prediction is much reliable and he is still not an over optimistic economist as we can see his prediction is not exceeding than actual data, and of course much much better than Reuters economist pooling projection.

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This is Yesterday news

Exports Soared, Indonesia's Trade Balance Surplus Could Be US$4 Billion Economists predict that Indonesia's trade balance surplus could be US$4 billion in March 2022.

1650262793691.png


Maria Elena - Bisnis.com 17 April 2022 | 14:20 WIB


Bisnis.com , JAKARTA - The trend of a high trade balance surplus is expected to continue in the March 2022 period.

Executive Director of the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Mohammad Faisal said the increase in the trade balance surplus will be influenced by the increase in commodity prices that will continue until March 2022. "With the extraordinary increase in commodity prices in March, actually since February due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the value of Indonesia's exports has increased, it will be even greater than February's exports," he said, Sunday (17/4/2022)

Thus, according to him, Indonesia's trade balance surplus in March 2022 has the potential to reach US$4 billion. "I believe that in March 2022 the surplus will be greater than in February, which was US$3.8 billion, so in March the surplus could be more than US$4 billion," said Faisal.


 
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Indonesia March exports, imports hit record highs amid commodity boom​

By Gayatri Suroyo
and Stefanno Sulaiman

April 18, 20221:36 AM PDT
Last Updated 23 min ago

1650272419246.png

A worker drives a reach taker vehicle past stacks of containers at the IPC Containter Terminal of Tanjung Priok port in Jakarta, Indonesia, November 4, 2021. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan

  • Summary
  • March exports at $26.5 bln, up 44.4% y/y
  • Imports at $22 bln, up 31% y/y
  • Trade surplus at $4.53 bln, vs $2.89 bln seen in poll

JAKARTA (April 18): Indonesia's exports and imports hit record highs in March amid rising commodity prices due to the impact of the Ukraine war, helping the resource-rich country book a wider-than-expected trade surplus, statistics bureau data showed on Monday (April 18).

March exports from Indonesia were worth US$26.5 billion (about RM112.8 billion), up 44.36% on a yearly basis and beating a 23.83% prediction in a Reuters poll. Imports were up 30.85% to US$21.97 billion, more than the 18.3% rise seen in the poll.

Southeast Asia's largest economy booked a US$4.53 billion surplus last month, the largest since October and far greater than the poll's forecast of a US$2.89 billion surplus.

Prices of Indonesia's top export products, such as coal, natural gas, palm oil, tin and nickel — which were already high due to recovering demand — surged further in global markets in March following Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb 24. Moscow calls its action a "special operation" to destroy its neighbour's military capabilities.

"Indonesia is on the right side of the ongoing commodity rally," said DBS senior economist Radhika Rao, adding that its trade surplus and an improved external position had kept the rupiah relatively stable compared to regional currencies.

Wisnu Wardana, an economist with Bank Danamon in Jakarta, revised his projection of the 2022 current account deficit to 0.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) from 1.9% of GDP due to the surplus.

He said that would help cushion the impact of US monetary tightening measures on Indonesian financial markets.

Coal, nickel shipments jump​

Among the most dramatic increases were Indonesia's coal exports, which rose nearly 150% on a yearly basis to US$3.9 billion. By volume, coal shipments were up about 22% annually to 35.3 million tonnes.

On a monthly basis, exports of coal jumped 41%, bought mostly by China, India and the Philippines, although shipments to European countries such as the Netherlands, Italy and Germany also rose, statistics bureau head Margo Yuwono said.

The European Union earlier this month imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia that included banning Russian coal imports from mid-August.

Nickel shipments also registered an annual increase of more than 600% by value to US$569.7 million and an 882% rise in volume to 66,900 tonnes.

However, Indonesia's palm oil sales slid 1.25% on a yearly basis, despite the price jump, to US$2.4 billion, with a 31% drop in volume to 1.7 million tonnes.

The bureau did not explain the drop. Indonesian authorities restricted exports of the edible oil between late January and mid-March to try to control domestic cooking oil prices.

High commodity prices also affected imports, with Indonesia a net oil importer and a major buyer of wheat and soybean.

The statistics bureau also recorded an increase in imports of meat, fruits and pharmaceutical products, some of which it said may be due to rising demand ahead of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which began in early April.

 
Indonesia imports, exports hit all-time high in March


1650297144467.png
A worker oversees the unloading of a container ship at Tanjung Emas Port in Semarang, Central Java, on Sept. 21, 2016. (Antara Photo/Aji Styawan)

Fadhil Haidar Sulaeman
(The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta ● Mon, April 18, 2022


BPS data shows that rising non-oil and gas exports were led by coal, followed by steel, CPO, nickel and precious metals. The rise in price of these commodities were exacerbated by the war between Russia and Ukraine, both of which are major commodity producers.

BPS noted that prices of these commodities were at least at one-year highs with coal at $294.4 per ton, nickel at $33,924 per ton and CPO at $1,777 per ton, as of March.

He added that the latest figures showed that Indonesia's exports were unaffected by the recent COVID-19 lockdowns in China. China remains Indonesia's main export destination with $5.48 billion worth of non-oil and gas exports. India and the United States trail behind with $2.83 billion and $2.06 billion, respectively.


 

Trade Balance Indonesia: Exports Soar Thanks to Coal & Palm Oil Shipments, Imports Rebound​

21 April 2022 |

1650694561814.png

Both Indonesia’s export and import performance was quite amazing in March 2022. While we expected imports to rebound ahead of the start of the Ramadan month (on 1 April 2022), a month that typically gives rise to a big increase in consumption, we did underestimate Indonesia’s export performance in last month’s forecast.

Based on the latest data released by Statistics Indonesia (in Indonesian: Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) on 18 April 2022, Indonesia’s export and import performance both touched new all-time record high levels in March 2022.

In this article we are going to take a look at the factors that explain this performance while also taking another look at the disrupted trade flows between Indonesia and Ukraine/Russia.

Indonesia’s Trade Balance in March 2022

Indonesia enjoyed a USD $4.53 billion trade surplus in March 2022. By Indonesian standards this is a great performance (and positive for the country’s current account balance, foreign exchange reserves, and rupiah). As usual, Southeast Asia’s largest economy saw a deficit in the oil and gas balance (of USD $2.09 billion). However, this deficit was fortunately more than compensated by the surplus in the non-oil and gas balance (USD $6.62 billion).

Trade-Tables-March-2022.jpg


The three tables above show that Indonesia’s trade balance has grown stronger in March 2022 compared to one month and one year earlier. Compared to one year ago (when the world was in an earlier recovery phase from the COVID-19 crisis), global economic activity had increased significantly by March 2022 (reflected in the huge jump in commodity prices).

What’s therefore more marked is the impressive growth in the March 2022 trade surplus compared to the preceding month. The sharp jump in coal and palm oil exports – which seem to have recovered after experiencing some export restrictions earlier in 2022 – is particularly noteworthy (which is discussed in more detail below).

Meanwhile, we continue to underline that – in terms of the oil and gas balance – Indonesia has to cope with a structural deficit, particularly because Indonesia has been a net importer of oil since 2004 (after years of falling domestic oil production, while domestic oil consumption soared structurally amid robust economic growth).

Considering Indonesia needs to import more oil when domestic economic activity increases, while global demand for oil has been growing amid the economic recovery (in combination with concern over adequate supply, including the Russo-Ukrainian war), global crude oil prices have skyrocketed and Indonesia’s oil and gas deficit has become significantly worse than it was one year ago. And unfortunately, this forms a situation that cannot change in the foreseeable future as Indonesia’s demand for crude oil simply remains rising while domestic production remains sliding.

As such, the country’s structural oil and gas might actually widen in the period ahead.
Over the past two decades, Indonesia has tried to limit the oil and gas deficit in a number of ways (such as trying to create a more conducive investment environment in the oil and gas industry, the biodiesel program, and by limiting distribution and sales of gasoline). However, the oil and gas deficit continues to widen.

Therefore, the energy transition (in which countries move away from fossil fuels, including oil, and move toward clean energy sources that generate energy domestically) should be the real problem-solver. This includes the electric vehicle that hopefully becomes more affordable (and user-friendly by having more charging stations available in society).
[...]

 
helps a lot when you are one of the largest producers of natural gas.
And a member of opec.
Even gulf countries with negligible skills do very well due to their oil fields.
Same with Indonesia.
In 2016 , Indonesia imported just 4 % of its oil needs.
Compare to India with its 84 % oil imported.
 
helps a lot when you are one of the largest producers of natural gas.
And a member of opec.
Even gulf countries with negligible skills do very well due to their oil fields.
Same with Indonesia.
In 2016 , Indonesia imported just 4 % of its oil needs.
Compare to India with its 84 % oil imported.

Wrong, look on the data, we have already been oil net importer country since 2004 and in this year you can see oil and gas trade shows deficit figure :

Only import 4 % of our oil domestic demand ??? Where your data come from ???

India is big exporter of refined oil, many of the imported oil will be processed to sell again to other country

PS: We are not OPEC member anymore

1650697396055.png
 
Wrong, look on the data, we have already been oil net importer country since 2004 and in this year you can see oil and gas trade shows deficit figure :

Only import 4 % of our oil domestic demand ??? Where your data come from ???

India is big exporter of refined oil, many of the imported oil will be processed to sell again to other country

PS: We are not OPEC member anymore

View attachment 836936
Indonesia has been joining and leaving OPEC for its own reasons in the last decade.
My point being , to become a opec member you need to be a substantial exporter of oil. Which Indonesia is.
 
Indonesia has been joining and leaving OPEC for its own reasons in the last decade.
My point being , to become a opec member you need to be a substantial exporter of oil. Which Indonesia is.

Dont believe on unknown website data, be critical as person

Here valid data

Benny Lubiantara, Deputy of Planning for SKK Migas, said that currently, crude oil production in Indonesia is only capable of reaching 700,000 thousand barrels per day (bpd). The consumption reaches 1.4 million bpd to 1.5 million bpd.



Any way, 80 % of our oil is produced by state owned Pertamina, we also have large oil and gas private owned company like PT Medco Energy. We dont depend on foreign companies any more like BP, Exxon, etc.

Being able to get oil needs technology, human resources engineering skills, management skills beside the bless of God, oil is not just squirting from the surface without we human tried to find it......

 
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@Bilal9 Reuters doesnt make prediction again in this April trade data for Indonesia...... :enjoy:
 

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