I hope Indonesia, Malaysia and Muslim countries in Sub Saharan Africa as they grow will finally shift the balance away from the Middle East. This will have great transformation and change the outlook considerably. Indonesia especially in 10 years will be a place many look for leadership on the OIC etc
Yup, I am agree on you, it needs 10 more years to get sufficient weight in international politics so that Indonesia can take leadership role in OIC or at least any role that can produce significant change in OIC so it can become an effective organisation instead of lame duck one.
At least we need to have 2 trillion USD nominal GDP and 24 billion USD defense budget that can be achieved inshaAllah if we manage to nurture our economic growth within 5-6 percent for 10-12 years to come and increase tax ratio significantly. Currently we manage to grow within 5-6 percent during 2014-2018, there is hope though that we can grow into 6-7 percent after 2024 as many infrastructure program finished under Jokowi leadership. Finished infrastructure project will improve country competitiveness that in return improve investment and manufacturing out put. Our tax ratio is also still very low which means we still have much potency to increase it that in return will help government spending, especially R&D and defense budget.
Indonesia minimum essential force that I believe can be achieved at year 2030 is also vital to reach the status of great power or maybe "middle" great power. Indonesia also want to build medium range ballistic missile within 2024-2030 time frame, that in the end will automatically add our weight geopolitically. KFX/IFX program has also reach its mass production scale in 2024 inshaAllah. Our navy has also targeted to have significant power at the year 2024 as Minimum Essential Force ends. Minimum Essential Force (MEF) blueprint by 2024, which envisions the Navy to possess 10-12 submarines, 56 frigates and corvettes, and 66 patrol vessels.
Currently Indonesia is still looking inward, it only show leadership in ASEAN region. Jokowi is also not an ambitious leader in term of international politics, he only focuses on Palestinian and Rohingya issues and only want to use diplomatic means as tool to solve problem, not taking side in Libya and Suriah war just like what Erdogan and other Middle East powers do for instant. So the next 5 years will be similar just like what happen during 2014-2018. Defense spending during Jokowi term is also stagnant at 8 billion USD, he doesnt want to increase defense spending while economy is still under 7 percent growth.
After Jokowi administration ends in 2024, there is hope that Indonesia will have leader who have geopolitics ambition like Soekarno. But he needs to pump defense spending first before acting aggressive in international politics, just like what Soekarno did during 1959-1965 where he initiated Non Block movement and also have biggest air force and naval force after China in Asia.
