Here is another fact that the lot of you are ignorant about...
Let us say you have 1000 missiles. Are you going to use them all in a war? No, you will not. There are two points that you are ignorant about: Strategic Reserve and Tactical Reserve.
Of that 1000 missiles, let us be generous and say you will keep 500 for strategic reserve. Prudence demands it. You need to keep some as deterrence just in case. That leave 500 to use in that one war. Of that 500, you will keep 200 as tactical reserve. The tactical reserve is for when unplanned situations and/or unexpected opportunities arise.
From that perspective, China do not have enough missiles and bombs to destroy Taiwan's defense
OVER WEEKS. China shares borders with 14 countries, correct? How many of them are hostiles? Are the hostiles capable enough for China to keep strategic reserves?
http://www.eu-asiacentre.eu/pub_details.php?pub_id=46
With the current situation with India, how much strategic reserves do you think China will need for that 'just in case' situation? I doubt that any of you would know. But you better believe it that it will be more than %50 given China is hostile to at least India and Russia.
Further, despite the fact that we used precision weapons in Desert Storm, US pilots still faced dangers like anti-aircraft guns and short range battlefield level missiles. Did you missed all those CNN videos of night shooting by the Iraqis? I guess you must have. So what make you think that PLAAF fighters will escape the air battles unscathed?
It is well known that Taiwan have erratic tides. One part of Taiwan have semi-diurnal and another part have diurnal. I will leave this as homework assignment for you to find out which part of Taiwan have which type. But for what we are talking about -- amphibious landing -- the ideal landing tide is high tide. A high tide means lesser beach expanse to cross which mean lower time under fire. For an amphibious launch, a high tide is also desirable, simply put, you can launch more vessels at the same time.
https://slate.com/technology/2014/0...army-navy-compromise-on-tides-and-timing.html
The Army wanted a high tide, the Navy wanted a low.
Why did the Army wanted high tide? Because of troop vulnerabilities.
The Army favored high tides, decreasing the amount of time soldiers would be targets as they crossed the exposed beaches.
Why did the Navy wanted low? Because of ship vulnerabilities.
The Navy wanted a low tide, exposing the extensive obstacles identified by aerial surveillance...
Get it? This is what the PLA must deal with on
ALL CANDIDATE AMPHIBIOUS LANDING SITES.
As if that is not bad enough, the Taiwan strait is famous for a phenomenon call 'geostrophic transport reversal'.
Here...
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2003JC001836
A strong northerly wind may reverse the sea surface slope across the Taiwan Strait and induce a geostrophic transport reversal.
Simply put, the strait weather may change unexpectedly. We are not talking about single tanker loaded with toys, household appliances, and cars and that the ship can take its time getting to destination. We are looking at a fleet of ships of various sizes carrying who knows how many human beings and that the ships have deadlines to multiple locations and at the same time.
How does all this factored in with those weapons reserves I mentioned earlier?
Because China do not have the resources to continuously bombard Taiwan
WHILE WAITING for the ideal day for the amphibious launch.
You want to use Desert Storm? I will indulge you. Back in Desert Storm, the US Army had a planned date and that meant by that date, US airpower must remove as much as possible of Iraq resistance on land and in the air. We did not removed all Iraqi defenses on land and in the air. The land forces still met considerable resistance on their way to Baghdad. You must have missed all the news about the many land battles, right?
An invasion of Taiwan have only one path: amphibious. China must make a firm date and commit. Remember that narrow %20 or more likely %15 window between Mar and Nov? When the PLAAF begins its operations, everyone around the world will have very precise estimate as to when that amphibious fleet will launch. All Taiwan have to do is to execute that force preservation doctrine and hit the fleet once it leave Chinese ports. The US will provide Taiwan with real time strait update. How precise do you think Taiwanese volleys of artillery and surface to surface missiles will be? By US estimate, a loss of %15 will render the amphibious invasion a disaster. Given Taiwan is qualitatively better than Iraq, try looking at around %30 or more for that loss.
Planning and troubleshooting are opposites. Planning is for the future. Troubleshooting is historical. But what is common to both is the ability to think of factors that may not be apparent to casual observers that may or even will affect the project. None of you have exercised that ability when it come to Taiwan. You guys have been seduced by the 'shiny new toys' effects. If the toy is the latest, make the loudest noise, create the bigger explosion, then it will defeat others -- by default.
