Indonesia Economy Forum

[Indos]

We should revisit our relationship with Singapore, says Indonesian business organization​

1,374 views
Jun 13, 2022

 

[Indos]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1542678360068747265

 

[Indos]

Greater Jakarta tightens COVID curbs​

People line up at a bus station in Jakarta on June 22, 2022.(AFP/Adek Berry)


Dio Suhenda (The Jakarta Post)
PREMIUM
Jakarta ● Wed, July 6, 2022

The government has put Greater Jakarta under tighter pandemic restrictions after the area became the center for the recent spike in COVID-19 infections, while keeping most of the rest of the country at the lowest level of curbs.

In a new Home Minister instruction, signed by Minister Tito Karnavian on Monday, Jakarta, along with its satellite cities of Tangerang and South Tangerang in Banten, as well as Bogor, Bekasi and Depok in West Java, has had its public activity restrictions (PPKM) level raised to level 2 for the next four weeks.

Meanwhile, all other cities and regencies across the country, aside from Sorong regency in West Papua, are maintained at level 1 restrictions – the most lenient set of curbs in the four-tiered system.

Greater Jakarta tightens COVID curbs

The government has put Greater Jakarta under tighter pandemic restrictions after the area became the center for the recent spike in COVID-19 infections, while keeping most of the rest of the country at the lowest level of curbs.

www.thejakartapost.com

 

[Indos]

People just too rush to go home in rush hour, they need to stay at the office until Isha prayer, then go home, bus station at that time is already half empty

 

[Indos]

Indonesia plans to implement B35 biodiesel by end of July​

FRI, JUL 08, 2022 - 4:46 PM

UPDATED FRI, JUL 08, 2022 - 9:51 PM

INDONESIA aims to implement a 35 per cent palm oil mix in biodiesel, known as B35, by the end of the month to help absorb excess palm oil supply, senior energy ministry official Dadan Kusdiana said on Friday (Jul 8).

The world’s biggest palm oil producer currently has a mandatory 30 per cent blend of palm oil-based fuel in its biodiesel and the government has been looking at raising it to 35 per cent or 40 per cent to support the price of local palm oil fruits.

The Southeast Asian country is struggling to cut palm oil inventories after a three-week export ban ending in May aimed at controlling domestic cooking oil prices had boosted stocks and weighed on palm fruit prices amid the peak harvest season.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commodities/indonesia-plans-to-implement-b35-biodiesel-by-end-of-july

 

[Indos]

R&I AFFIRMED INDONESIA’S SOVEREIGN CREDIT RATING AT BBB+ WITH STABLE OUTLOOK​

Press Releases

No. 24/168/DKom
Rating and Investment Information, Inc. (R&I) has affirmed Indonesia's Sovereign Credit Rating at BBB+ (investment grade) with a stable outlook, as announced today, July 4, 2022. According to R&I, key factors that support the decision are external stability supported with continued economic recovery and improving fiscal condition. Although the inflation rate is rising gradually, there is room for monetary policy to maneuver. The fiscal position will likely improve against the backdrop of rising commodity prices.

In response to the decision, Governor of Bank Indonesia, Perry Warjiyo, stated that R&I's affirmation on Indonesia's rating at BBB+/stable outlook shows strong confidence from international stakeholders on the Indonesia's maintained macroeconomic stability and a favorable medium-term economic prospects, amidst heightened global economic uncertainty, emerging risk of stagflation due to the increase in global policy rate amid global economic recovery, as well as the expansion of inward-looking policies in some countries. This supported by the credibility of the policies and the effective policy mix of Bank Indonesia and the Government. Going forward, Bank Indonesia will continue to closely monitor global and domestic economic and financial developments, formulate and execute the necessary policy measures to ensure macroeconomic and financial stability, including adjusting policy stances when necessary, as well as continue to strengthen the synergy with the Government to accelerate the national economic recovery.

R&I expected that Indonesia's economy will likely remain firm in 2022. The government projects a real GDP growth in the range between 4.8% and 5.5%. To alleviate the impact of rising commodity prices on inflation, the government has increased the expenditure related to subsidies and social protection (shock absorber), which will be financed through windfall revenues from higher commodity prices. The government projects a fiscal deficit of 3.9% of GDP in 2022, narrowing from 4.6% of GDP in 2021. The government debt recorded at 40.7% of GDP as of 2021-end, still a low level relative to the rating.

On the external front, the current account deficit recorded a small surplus in 2021, owing to the improvement of terms of trade resulting from the rising commodity prices, and it remains in surplus in the first quarter of 2022. The current account balance is expected to swing back into the deficit territory in 2022 in a manageable range, thus supporting the external resilience of Indonesia. Foreign reserves were US$135.6 billion as of end-May 2022, which covers more than six months of imports and servicing government's external debt and is well above the country's external debt due within one year.

R&I had previously affirms Indonesia Sovereign Credit Rating at BBB+ with stable outlook (two level above the lowest level of investment grade) on April 22, 2021.

Jakarta, 4 July 2022
Head of Communication Department
Erwin Haryono
Executive Director

R&I Affirmed Indonesia’s Sovereign Credit Rating at BBB+ With Stable Outlook

www.bi.go.id

 

[Indos]

Indonesia is in process to increase mandatory biodiesel from 30 % into 35 %

Campuran Sawit 35% ke BBM (B35) Batal Jalan Akhir Juli Ini?

Kementerian ESDM menyampaikan implementasi dari program campuran minyak sawit 35% dan solar 65% (B35) masih perlu proses diskusi

www.cnbcindonesia.com

 

[Indos]

Foreign direct investment up 40% in Q2

Realized investment rose 32 percent yoy to Rp 584.6 trillion in the first half of the year, meeting 60 percent of the 2022 target stated in the national medium-term development plan.

www.thejakartapost.com

 

[Indos]

Indonesia Central Bank hold interest rate at 3.5 % in June meeting, this make the stock market gets green Today. So basically holding the interest rate (instead of rising it as many foreign annalists want) is the best policy to make since foreign money will flood to stock market due to optimist expectation on the economy (as lower rate will push economic growth) that in the end help strengthen Rupiah.

Indonesia Central Bank hasnt increased the interest rate at least since late 2020, which is due to the fact that our real interest rate is still competitive enough compared to other developing countries that have already been in negative real interest rate like India.

Indonesia Central Bank should keep holding interest rate at 3.5 % as I believe Indonesia hopefully can hold inflation below 4.5 % with the help of God until the end of 2022 as Finance Ministry has already set aside huge fund to subsidize domestic energy cost and for coal and gas the price is capped since we are in surplus and no need to import those energy commodities.

Export will likely be still going up and trade surplus will likely remain large between 5-8 billion USD per-month until the end of 2022 that can support both the economy and Rupiah. Furthermore, with the coming of migrant workers to Malaysia again after Malaysia raise minimum wage and give more protection to our migrant workers, Rupiah then will have more weight to withstand from the market pressure.

The support from expected trade surplus and increase remittance will help cushion Indonesia economy from current economic pressure that comes from outside Indonesia (The Fed tightening policy, Russia-Ukraine war, and supply bottle neck amid raising demand due to the world economy return to normality after pandemic years).

We should not bother much about The Fed raising interest rate, but the parameter under consideration during Central Bank Board meeting should be on the real interest rate difference between Rupiah and USD. As US inflation increases much faster than the Fed interest rate, so Indonesia still have room to maintain our Central Bank interest rate at 3.5% since our inflation is expected to keep below 4.5 % for the rest of the year.

Real interest rate = Central Bank interest rate - inflation

Bank of Indonesia holds rate at 3.5 %. This is good decision and would be upsetting many foreign analysts. I would speculate our equity market will be green for Today, understanding the cost of loan will remain the same that will be supportive for economic growth. Comparing real interest rate of Indonesia with other nation, Indonesia still has wide positive gap compared to USA, India, and majority of other G2O members.

 

[Indos]

Amid global gloom, ADB ups Indonesia GDP forecast​

Workers prepare fish for export to Japan, China, Brunei, Thailand and Malaysia at a facility in Banda Aceh, Aceh, on Oct, 27, 2020.(AFP/Chaideer Mahyuddin)

Mark Lempp and Fadhil Haidar Sulaeman (The Jakarta Post)
PREMIUM
Jakarta
● Fri, July 22, 2022

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its growth forecast for Indonesia to 5.2 percent this year due to what it calls “healthy domestic demand and steady export growth.”

The revised growth projection for Indonesia is stated in a supplement to the ADB’s flagship economic report for the region, the Asian Development Outlook (ADO).

The supplement was released on Thursday. In the previous forecast from April, the ADB had expected Indonesia’s economy to grow at 5.0 percent this year.

Amid global gloom, ADB ups Indonesia GDP forecast

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its growth forecast for Indonesia to 5.2 percent this year while lowering its projection for most of Asia.

www.thejakartapost.com

 

[Indos]

Saudi Arabia eyeing extensive investment in Indonesia: minister​

10 hours ago

Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment, Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, as well as general chairman of the Nahdlatul Ulama’s General Management and delegates during a meeting with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed Bin Salman. (ANTARA/Instagram@luhut.pandjaitan/am.


Banjarmasin (ANTARA) - Saudi Arabia does not want to lose Indonesia as a partner and is looking to invest more in the country, Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment, Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, has disclosed.

The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed Bin Salman, has said that Saudi Arabia is willing to extensively invest in Indonesia, the minister said in Banjarmasin on Friday.

The Crown Prince conveyed this to Minister Pandjaitan during his working visit to Saudi Arabia two months ago. In the past four months, the minister has met the Crown Prince twice.

“He said, ‘General Luhut, I ask for one thing.’ He told his ministers, basically ‘I don't want to lose Indonesia like we lost China in the 80s. We want to put large investment in Indonesia,’” Minister Pandjaitan recalled.

Related news: Pandjaitan visits Saudi Arabia to explore investment opportunities

He said that Saudi Arabia wants to invest in several sectors that are currently being developed in Indonesia.

“‘(The Crown Prince said that) Whatever you make, I will go with you. No matter what, I want to (invest in) the capital, I (want to invest in) the mangroves, I (want to invest in) high tech, I (want to invest in) the data center,’ et cetera," the minister added.

Pandjaitan said that this had never happened before. Indonesia's relations with Saudi Arabia are so good right now that it allowed Indonesia some additional Hajj quota, he noted.

Saudi Arabia did this because it sees Indonesia as a country that is currently developing and growing into a promising investment destination, he added.

Minister Pandjaitan said that Indonesia is too big a country to side with another country. He further said he is confident that Indonesia could become an independent country, given its own resources.

According to him, cooperation with any country can be undertaken as long as it benefits the citizens.

Saudi Arabia eyeing extensive investment in Indonesia: minister - ANTARA News

Saudi Arabia does not want to lose Indonesia as a partner and is looking to invest more in the country, Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and ...

en.antaranews.com

 

[Indos]

Bank of Indonesia holds rate at 3.5 %. This is good decision and would be upsetting many foreign analysts. I would speculate our equity market will be green for Today, understanding the cost of loan will remain the same that will be supportive for economic growth. Comparing real interest rate of Indonesia with other nation, Indonesia still has wide positive gap compared to USA, India, and majority of other G2O members.

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) is projected to strengthen next week, check out the sentiments

Sunday, 24 Juli 2022 / 11:37 WIB

KONTAN.CO.ID - JAKARTA. JCI rose 3.53% last week. Next week, analysts project that the JCI will turn green again.

MNC Sekuritas analyst Herditya Wicaksana assesses that one of the sentiments driving the JCI next week is the meeting that will be held by the US Central Bank, namely the FOMC Meeting.

This activity is expected to affect the JCI movement. However, by consensus, it can be seen that the Federal Reserve will increase its benchmark interest rate again.

In addition, the JCI will also be affected by market anticipation for the release of the financial statements for the first semester, where the release of these financial statements is expected to affect the movement of the shares of the issuer concerned.

Read also: JCI in a week strengthened 3.53%, here are the sentiments

"We estimate that the JCI still has a limited chance of strengthening with support at 6800 and resistance at 6940," explained Herditya last weekend.

Similarly, Head of Research Jasa Utama Capital Sekuritas Cheryl Tanuwijaya projects that the JCI has the potential to strengthen at the beginning of the week.

However, in the middle of the week, investors will pay close attention to the results of the US Central Bank's decision regarding the interest rate policy which is estimated to increase by 75 basis points (bps).

"JCI has the potential to move in the range of 6,800-6,930," said Cheryl.

On the other hand, Phillip Sekuritas Indonesia analyst Joshua Marcius predicts that JCI will continue its bullish trend and will move within the support range of 6,700 and resistance at 7,140 next week.

Also Read: JCI Next Week Predicted to Strengthen Limited, See Sentiment That Needs to Be Observed

Technically, the possible strengthening of the JCI that can occur is based on the movement of the candlestick above the 34 exponential moving average and the stochastic is still pointing upwards in its overbought area.

IHSG Pekan Depan Diproyeksikan Bakal Menguat, Simak Deretan Sentimennya

IHSG pada Pekan Depan Diprediksi Melanjutkan Penguatan.

investasi.kontan.co.id

 

[Indos]

Sri Mulyani has the same understanding on me, if the inflation comes from the supply side, so fix the supply side, no need to raise the interest rate. Interest rate how ever can still be raised to defense the currency if its value deteriorate too far.

 

[Indos]

Bank of Indonesia holds rate at 3.5 %. This is good decision and would be upsetting many foreign analysts. I would speculate our equity market will be green for Today, understanding the cost of loan will remain the same that will be supportive for economic growth. Comparing real interest rate of Indonesia with other nation, Indonesia still has wide positive gap compared to USA, India, and majority of other G2O members.

There is big net foreign buy in Jakarta stock exchange on Friday, the day bank of Indonesia announced to hold rate at 3.5 %

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Mighty Rupiah, Exit Level 15,000 per US Dollar​

Tira Santia
Jul 25 2022, 10:35 WIB

Zoom in
Officers count rupiah currency at a money changer in Jakarta, Monday (9/11/2020). The rupiah exchange rate this morning moved up 29 points or 0.19 percent to 14,985 per US dollar compared to the position at the previous close of 15,014 per US dollar. (Liputan6.com/Angga Yuniar)

Liputan6.com, Jakarta The rupiah exchange rate strengthened on Monday morning as market participants awaited the results of the US Federal Reserve's meeting which will be held in the middle of this week.

The rupiah exchange rate this morning moved up 29 points or 0.19 percent to 14,985 per US dollar compared to the position at the previous close of 15,014 per US dollar.

Six+​

01:15
VIDEO: Indonesia's Advantages of Being a Full Member of FATF

"Market participants are gearing up for the busiest week for corporate earnings in the US and further rate hikes are expected in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision," wrote the Monex Investindo Futures Research Team quoted by Antara, Monday (25/7/2022).

The Fed is widely expected to deliver a 75 basis point hike after concluding its two-day policy meeting this Wednesday

Meanwhile, the outlook for weakening global economic growth will force many central banks to abandon aggressive tightening plans

The US dollar has been down since the start of the week and the decline accelerated after the European Central Bank (ECB) in midweek joined many other central banks in raising interest rates, focusing on fighting runaway inflation rather than preventing an economic downturn.
The decline in the US dollar at the end of last week came as weaker-than-expected US service sector data weighed on sentiment in the currency.

S&P Global said its latest services sector reading fell to 47 versus the forecast of 52.6 and the previous figure of 52.7.

The poor US services data indicated expectations that the Fed would not push for a 100 basis point rate hike for July, after initial bets for the record hike.

On Friday (22/7), the rupiah closed up 23 points or 0.15 percent to 15,014 per US dollar compared to the position at the previous close of 15,037 per US dollar.

Rupiah Perkasa, Keluar dari Level 15.000 per Dolar AS

Nilai tukar rupiah menguat pada Senin pagi menguat seiring pelaku pasar yang menanti hasil rapat bank sentral AS The Fed yang akan digelar tengah pekan ini.

www.liputan6.com

 

[Indos]

Fauzi Ichsan is one of Indonesian economists that I respect, this is his opinion about Bank of Indonesia decision on not raising the interest rate, he said Bank of Indonesia is not in pressured position to hike the interest.