Many foreign media and foreign economist stated that Indonesia trade balance will be negative in January since we ban coal export during the month of January 2022
AlhamduliLLAH the reality is not like what they wish.......
Indonesia sees narrowing trade surplus as coal exports down
Coal barges line up to be pulled along Mahakam River in Samarinda, East Kalimantan, on Aug. 31, 2019. The coal export ban led to a narrowing of Indonesia's trade surplus in January.(Reuters/Willy Kurniawan)
Dzulfiqar Fathur Rahman (The Jakarta Post)
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Jakarta ● Tue, February 15, 2022
The trade surplus in January was recorded at US$932.9 million, around half of the surplus booked a year earlier, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) data show.
The surplus narrowed partly as imports continued to grow faster than exports. In January, exports grew by 25.31 percent year-on-year (yoy) to $19.16 billion and imports by 36.77 percent yoy to $18.23 billion.
January’s growth for both exports and imports was slower than that of December. “Our trade balance has booked a surplus for 21 consecutive months,” Setianto, undersecretary for services and distribution statistics, said in a virtual press briefing on Tuesday.
While experts expected this year’s trade surplus to narrow, partly because of normalizing commodity prices, January’s narrowing surplus came at a time when Indonesia banned coal exports to secure supplies for domestic power plants.
Setianto said coal exports stood in January at $1.07 billion, down 22.59 percent from a year earlier. In terms of volume, coal exports fell by 61.30 percent yoy. As a result, mining exports grew by a mere 3.87 percent in January from a year earlier, slightly faster than the growth of oil and gas exports.
Manufacturing export
Manufacturing exports, the largest contributor to overall exports, grew by 31.16 percent yoy to $15.71 billion in January, supported by the surge in sales of steel and clothing. It was the fastest-growing export, followed by agriculture, forestry and fishing exports.
For imports, capital goods, the second-largest contributor to overall imports, rose by 41.94 percent to $2.8 billion in January from a year earlier, thus leading the growth. It was followed by raw materials and consumer goods.
Faisal Rachman, an economist at state-owned publicly listed Bank Mandiri, said the trade surplus was higher than the bank’s forecast of $197.88 million. “We iterate our view that trade balance in 2022 inclines to shrink as imports will catch up [with] exports, following accelerating domestic economic recovery despite a temporary hurdle from the Omicron variant,”
Faisal said in an analysis released on Tuesday. “Improvement in investment activities will increase import demand for raw materials and capital goods, which account for around 90 percent of total imports.”
Indonesia booked a $932.9 million trade surplus in January, around half of the surplus seen a year earlier as the coal export ban took a hit.
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