Indonesia’s Infrastructure Spending Projected to Reach $39 Billion in 2014
By
Tito Summa Siahaan on 8:16 am January 10, 2014.
Category
Business,
Economy,
Featured
Tags:
Indonesia infrastructure
Infrastructure spending in Southeast Asia’s largest economy may total Rp 469.7 trillion ($39 billion) this year, according to an official from the Public Works Ministry.
The country’s poor infrastructure, such as roads, airports and seaports, has been cited as one reason many foreign investors are unwilling to put money into the country.
Hediyanto said the state budget would contribute Rp 208.7 trillion to the total spending, followed by contributions from regional governments, investment from state enterprises and the private sector with Rp 103.9 trillion, Rp 89.9 trillion and Rp 67.2 trillion, respectively.
“There is still a gap of around Rp 52 trillion in our infrastructure spending,” the official added.
Hediyanto said the investment gap was due to limitations in the government budgets and the ministry is seeking to plug the discrepancies by inviting more foreign investment through public and private partnership.
The infrastructure spending will create a construction market worth at least Rp 407 trillion, a 10.2 percent increase from last year, according to Hediyanto.
The construction market is estimated by taking into account spending for building materials and services, while excluding expenditure for land acquisition.
He added that the country’s construction market has been growing at double-digit rates for the past couple of years.
“If this pace can be maintained, it could reach Rp 1,000 trillion in the next five years,” Hediyanto said.
But he warned that the country’s increasing need for infrastructure investment needs to be supported by improvement in domestic capacity.
“We have identified several challenges in order for the benefit of construction growth remains within the country,” he said.
He added that one challenge in particular was the risk that stems from importing raw materials.
“Now, Indonesia needs to import more than half of its asphalt needs,” he added.
The ministry estimates the current consumption of asphalt is 1.2 million metric tons a year, while domestic production capacity is less than 500,000 tons.
In addition, last year’s domestic cement sales of 52.7 million tons outstripped the domestic production of 49.9 million tons.
Indonesia has more than 106,000 units of heavy equipment, but more than 70,000 of them are located in the greater Jakarta area. From the total 117,000 contractors, more than 40 percent are based in Java.
Hediyanto lamented the lack of specialization among contractors.
“All of our contractors are general contractors, big or small. What we need in the future is a lot of small specialized contractors while the larger ones can remain as general contractors.”
Specialized contractors would reduce the number of total contractors thus making the process in project execution a lot simpler, according to Hediyanto.
“In China, there are only 62,000 contractors despite the country’s much larger population. That is because they have a lot of contractors who operate in niche markets,” he said.
The small number of certified professionals in the sector adds to the ministry’s concerns with only 400,000 having any kind of certification out of a total workforce of some 6.9 million.
Indonesia’s Infrastructure Spending Projected to Reach $39 Billion in 2014 - The Jakarta Globe
Indonesia-Philippines Divide Shown in Record Start
By
Bloomberg on 10:27 am January 10, 2014.
Category
Business,
Economy,
Featured
Tags:
bond sale,
Indonesia current account deficit,
Indonesia economy,
Philippines
The Philippines has paid 1.75 percentage points less than similarly-rated Indonesia during a record start for Asian sovereign dollar debt sales, as investors become more selective in emerging markets.
Indonesia sold $4 billion of bonds on Jan. 7, including $2 billion of 10-year notes at 5.95 percent, while the Philippines yesterday offered $1.5 billion of paper of the same maturity at 4.2 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg shows.
Asian nations, replenishing coffers before the Federal Reserve tapers stimulus policies, have now raised a record $6.5 billion this year, 44 percent more than the previous monthly high in January 2010.
Sovereign debt issuance will be larger and more diverse in Asia this year, according to JPMorgan Chase, the top arranger of global bonds for the last two years.
Indonesia will issue $7 billion of external debt in total, Malaysia and Vietnam $1.5 billion each and Thailand $1.25 billion, the bank estimated in a December report.
Indonesia, grappling with a record current-account deficit and a currency that plunged 21 percent last year, is losing out to the Philippines, where foreign worker remittances are keeping the nation in surplus.
“Investors do recognize the fundamental stories for the two countries are very different and diverging,” said Avanti Save, a Singapore-based credit strategist at Barclays. “Sovereigns are front-loading bond issuance given expectations of rising US rates. Bond issuance from Korea, Thailand and a second offering from Indonesia are possible.”
Record Matched Indonesia’s $4 billion bond sale matched a record set by South Korea for the region’s largest-ever sovereign offer in 1998, Bloomberg-compiled data show.
Southeast Asia’s biggest economy also sold $2 billion of 30-year securities at a yield of 6.85 percent, the finance ministry’s debt management office said in a Jan. 8 statement.
“This transaction proves foreign investors are still interested and are confident in Indonesia’s economy,” Robert Pakpahan, a director general at the office, said in an e-mail that day.
Yields on dollar sovereign notes in Indonesia rose 214 basis points last year, the most since 2008, as foreign investors withdrew from the country after the Fed threatened to pare its bond-buying program.
Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark rate by 1.75 percentage points since early June to help reduce imports and slow the economy.
Room to tighten
“We see room for Indonesian sovereign bonds to tighten, as they’re now trading closer to mid-double B sovereigns,” JPMorgan analysts led by Hong Kong-based Soo Chong Lim wrote in a Dec. 2 report. Indonesia’s “improved policy stance complements low public and external debt levels, strong growth, and relatively attractive spread levels versus other large current-account deficit countries such as India, South Africa, and Turkey.”
The yield gap in dollar debt between the Philippines and Indonesia hit a four-month high of 168.8 basis points on Jan. 7, down from a four-year high of 187.6 basis points in August, JPMorgan indexes show.
“We prefer Indonesia’s dollar bonds because they offer better yield and Indonesia’s macroeconomic fundamentals appear to have bottomed,” Chia Tse Chern, a senior director at UOB Asset Management, which oversees about $35 billion, said in a e- mail interview yesterday.
He added that Philippine debt will receive “strong technical support” because the nation’s outstanding dollar bonds will remain unchanged after the sale. Funding Requirements Indonesia, which shares a Baa3 rating by Moody’s Investors Service and BBB- by Fitch Ratings with the Philippines, is rated one rank lower at BB+ by Standard & Poor’s. Differences between bond prices for Indonesia and Philippines reflect how the former requires a larger amount of dollar bonds per year versus the Philippines, which only has a $1 billion program in 2014, said Joey Cuyegkeng, a Manila-based economist at ING Groep NV.
President Benigno Aquino’s economic reforms have helped spur the fastest growth in Southeast Asia. He raised excise taxes on tobacco and alcohol, ousted the top judge for illegally concealing his wealth and made contraceptives free for the poor during his first three years in office.
The country will use the proceeds from its latest sale to buy back foreign-currency bonds and for budgetary support, the person familiar with the matter said yesterday.
The Philippines bought back six different series of dollar notes for $1.08 billion, after paying $1.2 billion for its foreign-currency bonds in November 2012. Philippine Allure “Philippine debt is relatively attractive because the credit rating trajectory for the Philippines is much better than for Indonesia, growth is solid and the political situation is stable,” Sergey Dergachev, who helps oversee about $9 billion as a senior portfolio manager at Union Investment Privatfonds in Frankfurt, said in an e-mail interview.
Even so, he added, “Indonesia was very cheap and brought the deal in a very bullish market phase.”
Sri Lanka kicked off the dollar sovereign sales in Asia this year, issuing $1 billion of 6 percent securities due January 2019 on Jan. 6, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The notes, sold to investors at par, were trading at 100.62 cents on the dollar today, prices compiled by Bloomberg show. Indonesia’s 30-year debentures, sold at 98.734, were trading at 100.17 cents, compared with 100.70 cents yesterday, the data show.
“We do expect gross issuance to remain at a healthy level in line with 2013,” said Neeraj Seth, the Singapore-based head of Asian credit at BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager with $4 trillion as of Sept. 30.
“The expectation of potentially higher rates does play a role in some front loading of issuance but it’s not the only reason. Some of the sovereigns didn’t issue last year.”
Bloomberg
Indonesia-Philippines Divide Shown in Record Start - The Jakarta Globe
Indonesia to Raise Copper Export Taxes to 60% in H2 2016
By
Rieka Rahadiana on 5:24 pm January 13, 2014.
Category
Business,
Commodities
Tags:
Finance Minister Chatib Basri,
Indonesia copper,
raw mineral export ban
Indonesia will introduce a progressive export tax for copper concentrate that will rise to a maximum 60 percent of a shipment’s value by the second half of 2016, in bid to lift domestic refining capacity, the finance minister said on Monday.
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono signed last-minute regulations on Saturday to ease a mineral export ban for certain minerals, allowing exports of copper concentrate to continue.
“The aim of the export tax is not revenue, but more on securing the domestic market,” said Finance Minister Chatib Basri. “The policy will hit us in the short term, but we will post a trade surplus in 2016-2017.”
Reuters
Indonesia to Raise Copper Export Taxes to 60% in H2 2016 - The Jakarta Globe
India, Indonesia’s Push for Dollars Helps Send Asian FX Reserves to Record High
By
Suvashree Dey Choudhury & Rieka Rahadiana on 12:39 pm January 13, 2014.
Category
Business
Tags:
Forex,
India,
US Federal Reserve
As the US Federal Reserve winds down an era of easy money, Asia has built up record-high currency reserves, as countries especially those most dependent on foreign capital inflows amass dollars in case investors cut and run.
Foreign exchange reserves in 13 Asian countries excluding Japan tracked by Thomson Reuters are expected to have risen 3.2 percent to a record high $6 trillion in the October-December quarter, marking a near 12 percent increase for the whole year.
The estimate includes an expected 3.8 percent rise in China’s FX reserves to an all-time high of $3.8 trillion, or a whopping 19.5 percent surge for the year. The country will report numbers in coming days.
The rise in reserves in the last quarter was led by India and Indonesia, according to data this week, providing comfort about two countries dependent on foreign money to help narrow their traditionally hefty current account deficits.
Both took further steps this week to bolster their defenses, with Indonesia raising $4 billion via a bond sale, and India expanding a currency swap agreement with Japan to potentially as much as $50 billion from $15 billion after going on a massive drive late last year to raise money from abroad.
Yet analysts say both may need to do more to avoid the type of painful measures, including interest rate hikes, they undertook last year when foreign investors raced to the exits amid fears the Fed was about to start winding down its money-printing stimulus program.
That is especially true for Indonesia, given its current-account deficit hit a record 4.4 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2013.
“Recent global bond issuance should help to shore up market confidence, but Indonesia still needs more funds either from sovereign or domestic bonds to cover its current account deficit,” said Rangga Cipta, an economist for Samuel Sekuritas in Jakarta.
“And as risks from global trends and inflation continue to be seen ahead, BI [Bank Indonesia] still needs to increase the benchmark rate in the first half.”
Although Indonesia’s reserves rose by 3.9 percent in the October-December quarter to $99.4 billion, the biggest rise since the first three months of 2011, it still saw reserves fall 12 percent for 2013, after hitting a more than 2-1/2 year low in July.
Indonesia’s reserves cover only around five months of imports and around 1.6 times short-term debt, among the lowest in the region, according to JPMorgan estimates last month.
Jakarta has also sought additional cover through currency swaps with other Southeast Asian countries as well as Japan.
Staying on guard
India is also seen as vulnerable, although confidence is improving after FX reserves surged 7 percent in the October-December quarter to $295.71 billion, the biggest quarterly increase since January-March 2008.
India on Friday said FX reserves in the week ended on Jan. 3 fell to $293.11 billion.
The big improvement came after lenders took advantage of central bank subsidies to raise $34 billion from deposits and capital abroad. Worries about its current-account deficit and foreign outflows drove the rupee currency down by as much as 20 percent to record lows last year.
Policymakers in India and Indonesia have pledged renewed vigilance after the Fed said in December it would start to reduce monthly bond purchases by $10 billion a month.
Both countries were forced to take strong measures last year after their currencies tumbled, with Bank Indonesia raising interest rates by a total of 175 basis points since June, although it held policy steady on Thursday.
Despite the hikes, foreign investors still ended selling $1.8 billion worth of shares in Indonesia, according to Credit Suisse estimates, and Rp 53.31 trillion ($4.37 billion) in government bonds, according to the finance ministry.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India raised short-term rates in June. Although a rebound in the rupee has allowed it to wind down those emergency steps, it had to raise interest rates by 50 bps to deal with surging inflation.
RBI officials say continuing to build their FX reserves will be a priority, especially by buying dollars at advantageous rates.
“There is a change in strategy now. The current strategy is to build reserves whenever there is an opportunity so that whenever required we can protect the currency,” said an Indian policymaker who declined to be identified talking about the country’s FX strategy.
Malaysia remains another source of concerns for analysts.
Foreign investors have big holdings in its markets, while the central bank has traditionally been reluctant to intervene even as currency reserves fell 3.4 percent to $134.9 billion last year, near their lowest in 1-1/2 years.
These worries contrast with the rest of the region, where reserves in South Korea and Taiwan hit record highs, and where the prospect of currency appreciation against the slumping Japanese yen had been a stronger concern.
Although South Korea has been suspected of intervening in recent months to prevent the won from appreciating too much against the yen, analysts say that could change now that the dollar has strengthened after the start of the Fed taper.
“It’s hard to expect the won to keep rising against the dollar given the external uncertainties about the pace of the US tapering and how that affects the US economy,” said Son Eun-jung, a currency analysts at Woori Futures in Seoul.
Reuters
India, Indonesia's Push for Dollars Helps Send Asian FX Reserves to Record High - The Jakarta Globe