1. Prabowo has agreed to only use 1.1 billion USD available foreign loan (2020-2024) to buy 6 Rafales (minus weapons)
2. France is also agree to decrease the contract amount from around 7 billion USD into 1.1 billion USD
3. Finance Minister is not agree yet
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My comment :
Getting Rafale from France is not a diversification move, unless you get SU 35 from Russia. US and European Union is usually acting together in sanctioning nation. Our weak point is Papua rebellion group where majority Papuan are Christian. Same thing can happen when both USA and EU sanction Indonesia due to East Timor related event where East Timor population are majority Christian.
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Source
EU Arms Embargo to Indonesia Lifted Despite Worsening Situation in the Archipelago
17 Noviember 2005
www.tni.org
U.S. arms restrictions were first levied on Jakarta in 1991 when Indonesian soldiers opened fire on a pro-independence demonstration, leaving more than 270 East Timorese dead. Indonesia later staged a military intervention in 1999 to prevent East Timor’s secession, killing more than 1,500 civilians and razing 70 percent of its infrastructure. In response, the United States and the European Union both imposed arms embargoes.
The European Union chose not to renew its ban in 2000. (
See ACT, January/February 2000.)
In February 2005, Washington reinstated Indonesia’s eligibility for the International Military Education and Training program in order to upgrade the quality of its officer corps.
In May 2005, the United States removed restrictions on nonlethal defense equipment such as communications and transport systems. The latest decision lifts the last remaining barrier, a ban on sale of lethal weaponry and related equipment. Still recovering from the Asian financial crisis, the Indonesian government lacks the funds to purchase new armaments but intends to take advantage of the new rules initially to purchase spare parts for its aging fleet of 10 U.S.-supplied F-16 fighters.
www.armscontrol.org
We cannot get SU 35 either due to CATSAA, so the only way we can feel more secure is to develop our own weapon like our KF21/IFX program. Despite we still be importing engine from USA, at least it is already a step forward toward independency, and South Korea has chance to develop engine for KF21/IFX in the future.
Solution
Keep prioritizing KF21/IFX program for long term target while for stop gap we can buy F 16 V around 10-12 planes. It will be cheaper as F 16 is single engine and infrastructure and weapons are already bought.