Indonesia Defence Forum

[Whizzack]

The more I'm thinking about it, the more I'm not convinced that the U.S. will hit us with economic embargo for CAATSA violation.

Hitting us hard with economic embargo will only mean one thing, kicking us out of the U.S. orbit and pushing us more towards China's. This would create even stronger argument for the supposed to be a new informal bloc called The Golden Ring (China, Iran, Russia, Turkey, etc).

China & co. will have no major problem helping Indonesia's economy under embargo. China themselves have been in bilateral talks with Iran to invest about $400 billion in many various sectors (they will get cheap oil/gas supply for 25 years in return). That's small amount compare to their total foreign reserves of around $3300 billion

Indonesia under huge China influence will also destabilize the region and puts the likes of Australia, and to lesser extend Singapore and India, in jeopardy. Indonesian straits under China ISR will bring major setback to their security and economy.

That's the huge risk that the U.S. would have to face if they decided to punish us with embargo. All of that just for preventing Indonesia from owning SU-35 fighters. It's not like we plan to buy 50 jets either. It's just 11 jets.

Technically, we can assume that the U.S. will have the same perspective as the U.S. fan boys in this forum, that the presence of SU-35 itself will not destabilize the region. The aircraft that's deemed to be really lousy and much weaker version of the original. The aircraft that's so expensive to operate and to maintain making Indonesia could barely fly them. Surely if the U.S. fan boys here are right, then there's no reason for anyone including Australia & Singapore, who both have plenty of F-35s, to worry about SU-35s, never mind just 11 jets.

So in the end, the U.S. is the one who'd be taking huge risk embargoing Indonesia, than Indonesia taking the risk buying SU-35.

Huge risk with so little in return.

I hope this is one of the cards that Indonesia have been playing to get F-35. So far there's no official confirmation that the SU-35 is off. Our ambassador for Russia at the end of last month still saying that the deal is still on.

While we're still focusing our resources to buy used jets for interim program, I think we still need to keep the Russian fleet. Just in case we failed to get the F-35, just proceed with our original plan to buy SU-35 + F-16V after this interim program being taken care of.

Good to know that a fellow poster is sharing the same sentiment... I too have been posting more or less similar opinions here for some time now... That we also have cards to play, but some posters here seems to prefer we submit entirely to the US and become a sort of another Japan or Korea... Even though our national policy has always been "Non-Aligned" and "Free and Active".

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

Good to know that a fellow poster is sharing the same sentiment... I too have been posting more or less similar opinions here for some time now... That we also have cards to play, but some posters here seems to prefer we submit entirely to the US and become a sort of another Japan or Korea... Even though our national policy has always been "Non-Aligned" and "Free and Active".

Free and active doesn't work when china is eyeing our territory.

Aligning ourselves further with the US is just common sense at this point.

& like chestnut said we are already in the US spheres of influences so it's just the natural course of progression.

 

[umigami]

When trikora happened.
We got A LOT of "red" soviet equipment and expertise even though we're non aligned country.
Why?
Because our adversary at that time was the "blue" Dutch.

And now when the "red" is the one who make trouble, what's wrong if we "align" ourselves with the "blue(s)"??

 

[NEKONEKO]

Hitting us hard with economic embargo will only mean one thing, kicking us out of the U.S. orbit and pushing us more towards China's

China is pushing us more towards US.

US sanction and embargoes is worrying, we are not US adversaries why would they slap sanctions to us with CAATSA when we are purchasing Russian stuff why don't they just give sanctions to Russian entities and individuals that dealing with us, make me don't like relying too much to US, the moment we are became a nuisance they will give sanction on us and when its still not enough they will slap another embargoes.

 

[Nike]

When trikora happened.
We got A LOT of "red" soviet equipment and expertise even though we're non aligned country.
Why?
Because our adversary at that time was the "blue" Dutch.

And now when the "red" is the one who make trouble, what's wrong if we "align" ourselves with the "blue(s)"??

looking at India, albeit they are more or less very close with the Russian they are fundamentally member of Non Alignment Movements but when National Survival is at stake, it is an instinct to chose a closely same minded friends with aligned goals and working together to solve the problems instead standing alone to facing the hardship on your own. That's why right now it is imperative for us to find more same minded friends (countries who acknowledge religion and freedom to chose one, had a working democracy system and more or less not repressing your own people under the banner of communism).

 

[Ravager]

By the governing system alone we were allready in the blue camp . It's just US adventurism that put us on fence for a while and got exarcabated by the whole GOT and trump's attitudes that just simply push us further ...

I don't know ... By desain it should 3 way mexican stand off with us , India and China . But , it seem our presence was so miniscule that people is barely heard our voice echoes in the distance

 

[san.geuk]

India case is a good example, they are part of nonblock movement founder, really much on Russian hardware, but they realistic and they realise their limits, and today you can see they open cooperation with US to contain China, Indonesia is less capable than India in containing China, then why some of us still stubborn with non alignment and bebas aktif policy?

 

[Chestnut]

That's why, i think it is the proper time Indonesia get a step ahead by procuring Osprey and built Maintenance, repair and fast moving components production facility for Tiltrotor Aircraft.

If the Osprey purchase does go ahead, the offset would likely go towards Bell's other products. From an economy of scale viewpoint alone, having an MRO for all of Bell's commercial product would be more profitable then just the MV-22, considering only the US and Japan operate them currently.

 

[Chestnut]

The more I'm thinking about it, the more I'm not convinced that the U.S. will hit us with economic embargo for CAATSA violation.

Hitting us hard with economic embargo will only mean one thing, kicking us out of the U.S. orbit and pushing us more towards China's. This would create even stronger argument for the supposed to be a new informal bloc called The Golden Ring (China, Iran, Russia, Turkey, etc).

China & co. will have no major problem helping Indonesia's economy under embargo. China themselves have been in bilateral talks with Iran to invest about $400 billion in many various sectors (they will get cheap oil/gas supply for 25 years in return). That's small amount compare to their total foreign reserves of around $3300 billion

Indonesia under huge China influence will also destabilize the region and puts the likes of Australia, and to lesser extend Singapore and India, in jeopardy. Indonesian straits under China ISR will bring major setback to their security and economy.

That's the huge risk that the U.S. would have to face if they decided to punish us with embargo. All of that just for preventing Indonesia from owning SU-35 fighters. It's not like we plan to buy 50 jets either. It's just 11 jets.

Technically, we can assume that the U.S. will have the same perspective as the U.S. fan boys in this forum, that the presence of SU-35 itself will not destabilize the region. The aircraft that's deemed to be really lousy and much weaker version of the original. The aircraft that's so expensive to operate and to maintain making Indonesia could barely fly them. Surely if the U.S. fan boys here are right, then there's no reason for anyone including Australia & Singapore, who both have plenty of F-35s, to worry about SU-35s, never mind just 11 jets.

So in the end, the U.S. is the one who'd be taking huge risk embargoing Indonesia, than Indonesia taking the risk buying SU-35.

Huge risk with so little in return.

I hope this is one of the cards that Indonesia have been playing to get F-35. So far there's no official confirmation that the SU-35 is off. Our ambassador for Russia at the end of last month still saying that the deal is still on.

While we're still focusing our resources to buy used jets for interim program, I think we still need to keep the Russian fleet. Just in case we failed to get the F-35, just proceed with our original plan to buy SU-35 + F-16V after this interim program being taken care of.

Welcome to Realpolitik.

 

[Kansel]

Did they just copy the Daewoo K3?

No, more like minimi

 

[umigami]

looking at India, albeit they are more or less very close with the Russian they are fundamentally member of Non Alignment Movements but when National Survival is at stake, it is an instinct to chose a closely same minded friends with aligned goals and working together to solve the problems instead standing alone to facing the hardship on your own. That's why right now it is imperative for us to find more same minded friends (countries who acknowledge religion and freedom to chose one, had a working democracy system and more or less not repressing your own people under the banner of communism).

Can't agree more

 

[umigami]

With bremen class out of our reach, how about we lease a ship for this interim project?

With this we can get it quick and at the same time put pressure to our government to get serious about Iver project (lease frigate only available in limited time).

One of my biggest fear when hearing about bremen class idea was our government "cari enaknya aja" mentality like they always do.
"We find out this old German ship already good enough, so about that Danish ship, we don't need it anymore. Sorry...."

 

[Gundala]

The more I'm thinking about it, the more I'm not convinced that the U.S. will hit us with economic embargo for CAATSA violation.

Hitting us hard with economic embargo will only mean one thing, kicking us out of the U.S. orbit and pushing us more towards China's. This would create even stronger argument for the supposed to be a new informal bloc called The Golden Ring (China, Iran, Russia, Turkey, etc).

China & co. will have no major problem helping Indonesia's economy under embargo. China themselves have been in bilateral talks with Iran to invest about $400 billion in many various sectors (they will get cheap oil/gas supply for 25 years in return). That's small amount compare to their total foreign reserves of around $3300 billion

Indonesia under huge China influence will also destabilize the region and puts the likes of Australia, and to lesser extend Singapore and India, in jeopardy. Indonesian straits under China ISR will bring major setback to their security and economy.

That's the huge risk that the U.S. would have to face if they decided to punish us with embargo. All of that just for preventing Indonesia from owning SU-35 fighters. It's not like we plan to buy 50 jets either. It's just 11 jets.

Technically, we can assume that the U.S. will have the same perspective as the U.S. fan boys in this forum, that the presence of SU-35 itself will not destabilize the region. The aircraft that's deemed to be really lousy and much weaker version of the original. The aircraft that's so expensive to operate and to maintain making Indonesia could barely fly them. Surely if the U.S. fan boys here are right, then there's no reason for anyone including Australia & Singapore, who both have plenty of F-35s, to worry about SU-35s, never mind just 11 jets.

So in the end, the U.S. is the one who'd be taking huge risk embargoing Indonesia, than Indonesia taking the risk buying SU-35.

Huge risk with so little in return.

I hope this is one of the cards that Indonesia have been playing to get F-35. So far there's no official confirmation that the SU-35 is off. Our ambassador for Russia at the end of last month still saying that the deal is still on.

While we're still focusing our resources to buy used jets for interim program, I think we still need to keep the Russian fleet. Just in case we failed to get the F-35, just proceed with our original plan to buy SU-35 + F-16V after this interim program being taken care of.

There are some counter variables that you might have missed. China intrution to our EEZ give US advantage not to give "more" to us unless we give "more" to them. Economic wise we have alot of China investment and degraded US investment. On the other hand we have trade surpluss with US and trade deficit with China. Imagine the complexity in the diplomacy stand point by looking at those facts. (pusinggg )

I dont agree with down graded statement on SU-35 tho but wont dismiss the possibility. Same goes with US made fighters as we all know what happen to Egypt F-16 Radar & missiles. I wont go into CPFH/LCC/Maintenance for the SU-35 but having them will surely shift the regional power balance and create deterence effect regardless what others say about about China already know the fighter etc, and this my friend are the variable we need right now. If for some reason we cant get them then the push to have F-35 instead of F-16 is logical and good plan for our national interest. As for the pre-loved typhoon, well for me its a joke unless we are planning to have another ska filled with typhoon in a future.

And I agree with you to keep our option open about the original plan to have SU-35 + F16V plan if the alternative somehow is unavaiable for us. Thats why I am very much love to pursue the F16V plan while waiting for other options to surface.

 

[Alex898]

View attachment 669085

Now can they do that to the new and powerful saar 6

 

[Chestnut]

Now can they do that to the new and powerful saar 6

They really can't win against the Sa'ar 5.

The Barak 8 can just yeet a Styx missile rather easily. Also even though the Harpoon may not have the best range, compared to the Styx it's already a better missile and outclasses it in tech by several decades. Not to mention there's very little the Komar can do to defend itself against AShM's.

This diagram is severely misinformed.