HellFireIndo
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Yup, we need to increase to 40 Caracals, seems reasonable for me, at least we will hopefully have that number in 2030. I dont think the number will be reached even until 2024 since there are also many urgent acquisition plan that need to be realized like completing KFX program financing, submarine and frigate acquisition for navy, and medium tank for army and SAM acquisition for Air force. IMO Caracal acquisition will be done step by step along with acquisition of larger transport helicopter like Mi-17. Nevertheless, we still lack of transport helicopter so future acquisition is a must.
I refer to NASAMS 2 as it is a good system since it uses proven AMRAAM missile and the missile can be used for our F 16 and future IFX fighter as well (inshaAllah if the program is successful). Longer range SAM system in my opinion is not a good option for the mean time. The urgent one is to have middle range SAM first to protect some very valuable site. We also need to buy more AMRAAM and hopefully the number could at least adequate to get some valuable TOT. As we know our AMRAAM order is so small that cannot even enough to sustain a small war with our neighbors.
Indonesia should also spend adequate amount of money to make indigenous SAM system and cruise missile in the future. I heard from Lapan person (rocket department) that finally Lapan have mastered guidance system for rocket. The one that is still far from success I think is to make the seeker from SAM but if funding is enough it is not impossible to make it. So our RX family, particularly RX 450 can potentially be more lethal in the future.
Anyway I partially agree with Jokowi military planner that there will be no war at least for the next 20 years, I will say at least 10-15 years from now there will be no war, so we still have 10-15 years for preparation. No need to be rush so rather than setting the year of 2024 as the target, I rather see 2030-2035 is more reasonable to have adequate SAM system protection. And hopefully at that time some portion of our SAM system can come from our indigenous one. For 2024, at least we have 5 NASAMS 2 system to protect very very valuable site.
I only hoped that the medium range SAM would be dual-role AKA both Area Defense and Field Defense, of which they are also mobile and not stationary like the Skyshield, but for initial orders, i think i could accept a stationary SAM. NASAMS 2 is a good choice if we consider the logistical aspect, that the platform used AMRAAM, making it simpler to provide munitions for it, as it is the same thing used in F-16. But, it also have with it's own special, enlarged AMRAAM that have greater range than the standart missile, only if we really consider them tho.
Transport helicopters may have more time, there's no need to rush their acquisition, cause they are not among the "key" element that we urgently need to possess in ideal number by the end of MEF, they are not a game-changer, but they are indeed an important element for mobility, logistics and non-combat operation. I'm just hoping that we'll maintain the quality and readiness of the fleets, cut the unnecessary part and replace the aging one, i imagined a fleet of mainly AH-64E, Mi-17, Caracal, Bell 412 , and Panther (btw i've yet understand the purpose of Mi-35 in the Army, how and why they are there to begin with?), even if it's a nuisance, i'd still like to see a Chinook, i've already liked the thing since i was a kid, so i can't help lol.
Prioritizing AMRAAM acqusition is something that the government should be doing right now, but at least they ordered some lately, i expected that if the MoD go on with the Viper acquisition, there will also be a huge deal for AMRAAM and Sidewinders. What bothered me, is that KFX/IFX models, especially the IFX variant, often shown armed with Meteor and IRIS-T.
Well, that's up to them what kind of missiles they'd like to use, as having KFX/IFX fly and enter production is a much more important thing to think about.
I believe, we'll go for guided rocket, land attack missiles and cruise missile first, and only then we're going to go to AAM sector. Obviously, the use of Vampir, and truck mounted platform as a test bed, heavily imply the use for Army purposes, possibly first as a locally-made rocket artillery munition, then as a guided munitions, but still for land target. Probably, it will be very similar to Brazil's military rocket development, perhaps we're going to see local-made 122mm, 300mm, and 450mm rocket munition for use in Vampir, ASTROS and even future indigenous rocket artillery platform. AAM and SAM sector is very tricky and currently we are yet to possess seeker and advanced guidance technology, perhaps 2028 onwards we'll see a noteworthy development. I suggest that we going hand-in-hand with the Koreans cause it seems like they are currently interested in developing an indigenous AAM, not to mention they are already successfully mastering cruise missile technology, VLS missiles and Naval guided rockets. I am among the most avid supporter of Indonesia-South Korea cooperation, i believe that we could get many things by working along with them.
I am neutral regarding whether there will be war or not, the question is not when we have to be ready, cause obviously we have to be ready at all time, we cannot rely on fate alone and hoped a war won't be coming soon, the world is dangerously random, preying on anyone off-guard. 15-20 years is too far of a stretch, nobody is able to tell what could happen in 15 years, cause imagine yourself in 2005, could you imagine this world of smartphones and digital social networking back then? My opinion is that defense development should not be based on how there would be no war, but instead of how there would be war. Being adequate alone does gives a capability to fight, but not necessarily the capability to win, being passive does not guarantee victory nor cement our position in the region. History prove time after time that the one with more willpower and persistence to win, is the one end up winning.