India's Nuclear Agreement

[nitesh]

Nitesh

I apologise if I have made you think that I disregarded the links you included - it seems we are talking past each other; not my intent.

Yes, it may well be an element in the politicizing the debate, but nationalism is a two edged sword, and nationalism is not the exclusive domain of the present govt - you follow??

Again the deal is a huge plus but it is also a negative - and those negatives also include nationalistic sentiment of those not now in the government.
Will this then mean that the deal can be derailed? I don't see how, however; at least to my thinkiing, the debate and how to effect the deal, has a lot of life left in it.

Muse,
I apologize I think I am not able to put my point clearly. The point is the nationalistic agenda which include some points like:

why we are giving away the right for testing? when our neighbors can.

The answer is that India has only agreed for unilateral moratorium for testing. But does this means that india can test any day, NO it will be difficult to do.

Does it mean that India can not do testing at all?
NO, it will be very difficult as the indian economy will be very much integrated with world economy and if India tests it will be difficult to put a ban on trade. India need to find a really good reason for test otherwise there will be very difficult situation.

Here the mention for neighbors came and they were answered.
Nothing more then that.

How to derail the deal? well something very drastic has to happen for that otherwise I don't think it can be derailed.

 

[muse]

why we are giving away the right for testing? when our neighbors can.

The answer is that India has only agreed for unilateral moratorium for testing. But does this means that india can test any day, NO it will be difficult to do.

Does it mean that India can not do testing at all?
NO, it will be very difficult as the indian economy will be very much integrated with world economy and if India tests it will be difficult to put a ban on trade. India need to find a really good reason for test otherwise there will be very difficult situation

The understanding reached is that India will not do any testing and like ambasador Bradakumar has pointed out the American has a nasty habit of making private assurances offered to it, public; yes it's a blackmail. That's why I had suggested that the debate has still life left in it.

 

[Always Neutral]

Muse,


How to derail the deal? well something very drastic has to happen for that otherwise I don't think it can be derailed.

The deal is done and unless the REDS take over India I doubt anyone can de-rail it. Pakistan must now try to get its pound of flesh for being given an equal deal which will never happen or sign the NPT or hope the Communists come to power in india.

Regards

 

[Flintlock]

The understanding reached is that India will not do any testing and like ambasador Bradakumar has pointed out the American has a nasty habit of making private assurances offered to it, public; yes it's a blackmail. That's why I had suggested that the debate has still life left in it.

The understanding is that the deal will be terminated if India tests a nuclear device.
I fail to see what India has been made to compromise, since it will simply bring us to the pre-agreement status.

If you are hoping that the Americans will leak some controversial secret agreement in the days to come, well, we'll see, but I doubt that anything of the sort is going to happen.

 

[Always Neutral]

The understanding reached is that India will not do any testing and like ambasador Bradakumar has pointed out the American has a nasty habit of making private assurances offered to it, public; yes it's a blackmail. That's why I had suggested that the debate has still life left in it.

Indians would be very foolish to test as with the NSG support computer simulations can be used to develop more efficient warheads. The other reason for tests would be if Pakistan tests and if that happens than Pakistan will face severe sanctions which would again be beneficial to India.

Regards

 

[Marshal]

The understanding is that the deal will be terminated if India tests a nuclear device.
I fail to see what India has been made to compromise, since it will simply bring us to the pre-agreement status.

If you are hoping that the Americans will leak some controversial secret agreement in the days to come, well, we'll see, but I doubt that anything of the sort is going to happen.

No...The deal says that If India test then it will have atleast one year to convince to NSG. there will be a debate why India tested .......The deal can not be terminated as soon as India test a nuke devise..the agreement clearly stated that.....and the whole exercise we have witnessed in viena for 3 days specifically to not cut this line.

 

[muse]

Assasino

I'm not hoping for any such thing, I'm just pointing out what I think may be the contours of the debates to come.

Always

Are you suggesting that the deal explicitely is that India will be allowed to test is Pakistan does ? This clause will be news to me, I think to the rest of the world as well

 

[nitesh]

The deal is done and unless the REDS take over India I doubt anyone can de-rail it. Pakistan must now try to get its pound of flesh for being given an equal deal which will never happen or sign the NPT or hope the Communists come to power in india.

Regards

muse, I will again post the same link

http://www.barc.ernet.in/publications/nl/2007/200710-1.pdf

do we need to test physically again without any real threat foreseen NO

 

[Always Neutral]

Assasino


Always

Are you suggesting that the deal explicitely is that India will be allowed to test is Pakistan does ? This clause will be news to me, I think to the rest of the world as well

Dear Muse,

That is why I am not for this deal as there is a clause in the NSG suppliers deal that in the event of India testing the NSG will convene a meeting and review within a year the aggrement after hearing the Indian stand instead of automatic sanctions which Pakistan would face if it tested today.

Regards

 

[muse]

So testing is a non issue? Well. perhaps, lets see if the debate suggests the same, ambassador Bhradakumar suggests that the concessions agreed to in Vienna effectively bring India in to the CTBT and NPT, will somputer simulation also diffuse this issue?

 

[Marshal]

Dear Muse,

That is why I am not for this deal as there is a clause in the NSG suppliers deal that in the event of India testing the NSG will convene a meeting and review within a year the aggrement after hearing the Indian stand instead of automatic sanctions which Pakistan would face if it tested today.

Regards

And IF you are the harsh critic of this deal then the most importent line in the deal is.........
nuclear trade would have to be stopped by consensus in case of Indian testing
that means if a single country e.g. Russia or US disagree to terminate the deal with India if it test then the deal can not be terminated..

 

[nitesh]

this is interesting debate:

NSG waiver: Neighbour's envy, owner's pride

 

[nitesh]

And IF you are the harsh critic of this deal then the most importent line in the deal is.........
nuclear trade would have to be stopped by consensus in case of Indian testing
that means if a single country e.g. Russia or US disagree to terminate the deal with India if it test then the deal can not be terminated..

That's good one, do you have original version of NSG waiver? If yes, please post it.

 

[Always Neutral]

So testing is a non issue? Well. perhaps, lets see if the debate suggests the same, ambassador Bhradakumar suggests that the concessions agreed to in Vienna effectively bring India in to the CTBT and NPT, will somputer simulation also diffuse this issue?

Computer simulations have been good enough for all the big 5 to develop new warheads in last 20 years but laying hands on the cray computers and the relavent software was impossible for developing countries like India and Pakistan and now will be available to India only so maybe Indians will not physically test at all.

Regards

 

[muse]

Always neutral AKA Never Fair:

that's a classic, an India specific deal has a pakistan clause in it - You'r the best That was good.