India’s future: World biggest market won’t let you in. World second market won’t let competitors in

[Goenitz]

haha you first wanted to know India is a worthy automotive market

My point always was about India being a big market.. I argued, 'big' is dependent on purchasing power not by just pop. Then I supported the argument, what Indians can buy and export. As India needs to replace China and other competitors in int market.
As thread is about whether 1st and 2nd (USA and China) markets will let you do business. As both may not eject India in food/spices/tea/some petroleum & pharma products, but by selling value added products, they will beat India. Then that, by taking China as enemy, India cannot sell its products to China (as China may not need that).. China can kill competition by lets say buying Vietnamese rice, and subsidising it so that India cannot sell rice to Gulf.. Please connect the posts before making any judgement.

 

[Jobless Jack]

If your judgement says that then yo are entitled to your opinion. As for me I think there are simply too many variables to reach a conclusion like that as of now.

well ya.. lets see.

The only variable I consider is that who ever wins between USA and China, will simply turn their gun next on India. India's potential is too huge. No aspiring superpower , or current super power will tolerate this . I think this is one of the key reasons why CHina Pak ties are so close

 

[danger007]

Here I strongly disagree with you. India might not have excess to world 2 bigest market but it can make products for world third biggest market i.e. India itself to substitute imports and then can target other smaller economies.

India can never become as big as China and USA because of fundamental flawed society.

USA grew due to common interest of profit by businessman of all west transferred to US in 17th and 18th century. Chinese are a strong nation and have an effective government.

India is not even a nation in its entire history. They are united by a hatred towards muslims nothing else can unite them. They don't share anything in common, religion, language, race nothing. To bring further unity they further strengthen the hate in modi's regime. Sooner or later the others will rise against this hate, the dalits, muslims, christains, south indians, east India. the difference between them and rest of the india is increasing even faster.

I feel sooner or later India will disintegrate

that's what you feel.. you been trying to get Indian Kashmir from past few decades... yet nothing changed.. Pakistan launched many ops to grab Kashmir.. but it failed... we executed and sliced half of Pakistan... Though US is on your side... we might have some issues at various levels but don't question about our patriotism... disintegration of pak is more possible, as it near bankrupt stage..

 

[The Accountant]

that's what you feel.. you been trying to get Indian Kashmir from past few decades... yet nothing changed.. Pakistan launched many ops to grab Kashmir.. but it failed... we executed and sliced half of Pakistan... Though US is on your side... we might have some issues at various levels but don't question about our patriotism... disintegration of pak is more possible, as it near bankrupt stage..

First of all long before you do anything to Pakistan we slice half of Kashmir and got it out of your clutches in our own hands.

Secondly the division of Pakistan has a war with you but it was also desired by Pakistani politicians themselves. You can read speeches of both majority leaders bhutto and mujib and both were in favor of having separate government for east and west Pakistan so you did nothing but take a credit of what people of Pakistan and Bangladesh wanted. If it was your achievement then why didnt you occupy Bangladesh just like Kashmir?

History is much more than your text books and speeches of your leaders.

Disintegration of Pakistan is a long outstanding dream of India but unfortunately it will remain a pipe dream.

by the way its already such a shame that in order to prove yourself you have to compare yourself with a seven time smaller country. This is the thinking that will not let you grow as you just want to rule the muslims of subcontinent to take revenge of hundreds of years of muslim rulership. This is the only cause uniting you otherwise tell me a single common item in people of India that is require to make a nation ?

 

[Imran Khan]

India has been wise since it's birth in 1947 in foreign policy. But what they are doing now (siding with america directly against China) is a historic blunder. Whether the Americans or the Chinese win this cold war, India will be a looser. The best course of action for them was to keep good ties with both America and China and try to solve border disputes with China through dialogue as mus as possible.

its not blunder we paksitanis were waiting for india to do it since long time . its good news for us .

 

[Shantanu_Left]

As I said earlier, the best choice for India is not making choice between China and US. Since India had sided with US to contain China. India’s future is something we can foresee now.

1, Considering what India did and is doing to Chinese products now, if someday made-in-India are more competitive, China will restrict India goods entering China. Yes, India has already lost world biggest market before it has the capability to compete in world market.

2, The second biggest market, America. USA is actually a company under the cover of a country. It’s more like modern version of East India Company, an armed business organization. US hates competitions, especially in critical areas. Chinese companies, like Huawei and about a hundred other high tech Chinese companies, research institutions are already in US Entities List. I heard DJI and BYD will be banned by US soon. China only banned social media entering China. Never banned any goods. US bans everything.

China was not first one hit by US because Chinese companies are too competitive. Remember how Japanese semiconductor industry was destroyed by US? Unless the companies are sold to to American companies or controlled by America(like TSMC, Samsung, ASML), you can not avoid US punishment. Yes. By siding with US, India has lost the chance of having independent Indian high tech companies before it has any.

This doesn’t only apply to India. US set a glass ceiling for all countries. You can sell cloths to US. You can sell toys to US. You can sell TV to US. You can sell cars to US. But US will never allow you to touch critical industries. China is an exception. Because China has the gut to challenge US.

India will not be able to leave the US camp for three main reasons:

1) Most of India's IT and software industry exports are for the United States. That is a major foreign exchange earner for India. Apart from that, a lot of money is sent by H-1B and L-1 workers to India via direct remittances. Many of India's middle classes (the ones who vote for Narendra Modi's party, BJP) depend on the US for their economic livelihoods. The Americans use this as a bargaining chip to gain more influence from India. Washington DC's strategic design is to convert India into a vassal state, so that it can use the territory to contain China, and maintain regional influence. Basically, it's a return of the "Great Games" of the 19th century except instead of the British, it's the Americans which will be leveraging Indian territory for their use.

2) Indian forex reserves and gold reserves are pegged against US currency. Many other countries have a diversified portfolio including Euros, British Pounds, Japanese Yen, etc. But India's collective assets are somewhat at the mercy of US Fed guidelines. A lot of US based auditing firms such as PricewaterCooperHouse, Deloitte, KPMG etc. have disproportionate influence in India's economic decision-making.

3) Even with an a$$hole like Donald Trump in charge, Indians are pro-American as a default.

--

However, India does depend on China for trade as well. Many Indians livelihoods depend on Chinese imports such as auto accessories, electronic components, smartphones, computer peripherals, toys, plastic goods...India cannot afford to rely only on the US for these essential products which guarantee employment to tens of millions. That is why India does want to go to war with China either as it will threaten the livelihoods of millions.

 

[kankan326]

India will not be able to leave the US camp for three main reasons:

1) Most of India's IT and software industry exports are for the United States. That is a major foreign exchange earner for India. Apart from that, a lot of money is sent by H-1B and L-1 workers to India via direct remittances. Many of India's middle classes (the ones who vote for Narendra Modi's party, BJP) depend on the US for their economic livelihoods. The Americans use this as a bargaining chip to gain more influence from India. Washington DC's strategic design is to convert India into a vassal state, so that it can use the territory to contain China, and maintain regional influence. Basically, it's a return of the "Great Games" of the 19th century except instead of the British, it's the Americans which will be leveraging Indian territory for their use.

2) Indian forex reserves and gold reserves are pegged against US currency. Many other countries have a diversified portfolio including Euros, British Pounds, Japanese Yen, etc. But India's collective assets are somewhat at the mercy of US Fed guidelines. A lot of US based auditing firms such as PricewaterCooperHouse, Deloitte, KPMG etc. have disproportionate influence in India's economic decision-making.

3) Even with an a$$hole like Donald Trump in charge, Indians are pro-American as a default.

--

However, India does depend on China for trade as well. Many Indians livelihoods depend on Chinese imports such as auto accessories, electronic components, smartphones, computer peripherals, toys, plastic goods...India cannot afford to rely only on the US for these essential products which guarantee employment to tens of millions. That is why India does want to go to war with China either as it will threaten the livelihoods of millions.

Compared with some guys replied earlier, you are reasonable. Before the border clash, India still had chance to be neutral. I know US put much pressure on India. But India also has bargining chips. India could threaten US to join in China side. Which is the worst thing to happen for US. I think Modi never used that chip.

 

[nahtanbob]

You missed the whole discussion. If you have no capacity to understand the point in the discussion, no need to reply.

I did not miss the point. You were being naive and simplistic. What does it really mean for China to lose the war with USA. It is not like China is going to disappear. After the end of the Cold War did USA turn on Western Europe and Japan ? ?

 

[nahtanbob]

China is more important than your faulty estimation of 100b $ worth value added service, purchase by the US.
China is pure economic stimuli to a sedated economy in a country like India. Chinese investment invigorates the whole Indian economy,chinese investment created not just millions of jobs but also expertise,technological know-how, experience and confidence and a robust economic sphere with heightened economic activity compared to the much slow paced stale market before the arrival of Chinese. Chinese investment and chinese products also increased the saving of Indians other than increasing living standard.
India basically tries to copy everything china and takes babysteps imitating china on every aspect for its development.

China is not just important for the 15B$ raw goods export,but the Indian manufacturing industries depends on chinese imports for their production and profit margin .
Indian infrastructure development is also basically funded by Chinese led AIIB.

While US treats iNDIA like a guinea pig for their drug manufacturing and cheap labour source for their call centre jobs.

You cut off the $100 billion in outsourcing revenues.
You will nothing to pay for Chinese products and services. It will be back to the IMF days

 

[nahtanbob]

I can give you most of that outsourcing in three categories. Before you use to bring the "West African Slaves" to do the dirty work for free. Now you are employing "South Asian Slaves" for peanuts.

1- Call centres by the companies. Answer phone, billing enquiries, payment enquiries, service issues enquiries. Take a note , update the online database, the rest is done in the USA or Europe.

2- Technology companies, all lower level jobs transferred to India. Once again mostly call centres and tech centres, some Data Centres too. Once again overwhelming reason is economic, cheaper labour, cutting costs, greater profitability.

3- Pharma companies, which cannot do some testing in USA and Europe because of restrictions, have established their labs in India , because it allows all kind of unethical research and testing, which are banned in the USA and Europe.
Another expansion is production of generic medicines. Once again the reason is simple, cheap labour and profits.
Once the medications goes out of the licence period, they can be produce very cheaply because the chemicals used in the products are really really cheap. The Western Pharma companies charge for their research and development costs to the customers. These medications after the expiry of the patent period becomes generic and can be produced at friction of the cost.
Indian is a hub for the production of generic drugs due to cheap labour.

Call it what you want. At the end of the day India has $400 billion plus FOREX while Pakistan goes on its annual begging bowls to IMF, China and GCC states

At the end of the day China buys nothing in Indian products

 

[nahtanbob]

Compared with the guys replied earlier, you are reasonable. Before the border clash, India still had chance to be neutral. I know US put much pressure on India. But India also has bargining chips. India could threat US to join in China side. Which is the worst thing to happen for US. I think Modi never used that chip.

You have not answered what China has done for India. the answer is nothing

That is my original quote
Please cut the crap dude. USA allows $100 billion in outsourcing business to India employing 4 million Indians. What has China done for India ?

 

[crankthatskunk]

Call it what you want. At the end of the day India has $400 billion plus FOREX while Pakistan goes on its annual begging bowls to IMF, China and GCC states

At the end of the day China buys nothing in Indian products

Yeah, because you also give us Zardaris and Sharifs. Once the dirt is cleared Pakistan would roar.
Don't you worry about it.

 

[nahtanbob]

Yeah, because you also give us Zardaris and Sharifs. Once the dirt is cleared Pakistan would roar.
Don't you worry about it.

Correction: we back only army generals. the army generals hire the Sharifs and Zardaris

 

[gulli]

As I said earlier, the best choice for India is not making choice between China and US. Since India had sided with US to contain China. India’s future is something we can foresee now.

1, Considering what India did and is doing to Chinese products now, if someday made-in-India are more competitive, China will restrict India goods entering China. Yes, India has already lost world biggest market before it has the capability to compete in world market.

2, The second biggest market, America. USA is actually a company under the cover of a country. It’s more like modern version of East India Company, an armed business organization. US hates competitions, especially in critical areas. Chinese companies, like Huawei and about a hundred other high tech Chinese companies, research institutions are already in US Entities List. I heard DJI and BYD will be banned by US soon. China only banned social media entering China. Never banned any goods. US bans everything.

China was not first one hit by US because Chinese companies are too competitive. Remember how Japanese semiconductor industry was destroyed by US? Unless the companies are sold to to American companies or controlled by America(like TSMC, Samsung, ASML), you can not avoid US punishment. Yes. By siding with US, India has lost the chance of having independent Indian high tech companies before it has any.

This doesn’t only apply to India. US set a glass ceiling for all countries. You can sell cloths to US. You can sell toys to US. You can sell TV to US. You can sell cars to US. But US will never allow you to touch critical industries. China is an exception. Because China has the gut to challenge US.

You have problem with US than go discuss it with them why drag India in between?? For us, you try to threaten our sovereignty and be ready to face a strong response.

 

[Longhorn]

Please cut the crap dude. USA allows $100 billion in outsourcing business to India employing 4 million Indians
What has China done for India ?

As Jerry Maguire said show me the money

Very myopic thinking.
Indian long term strategic thinking is malicious and flawed.
All they needed to do was to look at a map and assess American relations with each country to see which way the dominoes were going to fall.
I predicted a Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey axis 3 months ago and said that India should have joined this bloc to enhance regional progress and peace, in fact, Xi offered Modi this very thing 2 years ago when he offered a 3 way agreement between China, Pakistan and India which would have meant the peaceful resolution of all border disputes and economic and trade ties between the 3 countries, but Modi refused. I was told by the Indian posters that their was no such thing as a Eurasian bloc, it's because they can't see the obvious, who foresaw Bangladesh on the brink of ditching India, or Nepal?
The Indians don't want to finish their petty squabbles with their neighbours because they would rather be a domineering hegemon in a poor neighborhood rather that be an equal partner in a richer one.
They have bet the house on the US facing down the emerging Eurasian bloc which will grow in the near future to include CAR, Turkey and beyond and in doing so they have isolated themselves in the region and surrendered their development to the tender mercies of the Americans.