India's Cold Start Is Too Hot

[deckingraj]

But Sir i still fail to understand the objectives of Cold Start Doctrine, i have taken a lot of interest in this doctrine and have thoroughly studied and analyzed it. It appears to me that the objectives of the Indian Army are extremely flawed, they hope to capture small chunks of territory in rapid time (72-96 hours) and hold that territory for bargaining. But what makes the Indian war planners think that Pakistan will come to the negotiating table, what if Pakistan Army chooses to engage and evict the Indian IBG's. Its going to be really hard for the Indian IBG's to fight through attrition and flanking battles.

I am not a military expert but just a thought there...Since you have studied a lot about cold-war you definitely would have come across the compulsions of international pressure...In fact that gave birth to cold-start....Hypothetically assume that India do have the capability to follow what Cold-Start states...With that set, look at the time frame we are talking about here...72-96 hours...Why do you think that we want to achieve the target in just 3-4 days...because their is a realization that beyond that time-frame International power brokers will halt all the operations on both sides and we will on talking table...it is then we will use our advances as bargaining chip....Also keep in mind that CSD will come into picture only after a terror attack like 26/11, so it would be very hard to convince international power breakers that India is the agrressor state implying it would be very difficult for Pak to carry on the operations... Now hypothetically if we assume that Pak manage to ignore the international community then definitely it would be difficult to hold off the captured land, howeever that is the question of mobilizing and securing the supply lines at the similar rate of IBG's...If we look around the recent and planned acquisitions one gets an inclination that the GAP is being filled....

Never the less, its a very bold strategy and something that is very interesting. One can only expect innovative armies like the US, USSR or Wehrmacht to come up with a doctrine like this. Definitely thinking away from fighting attrition battles on the border to fighting battles deep inside the enemy's territory.

Indeed..."A limited war under nuclear umbrella" is interesting both from the pros and cons perspective....

 

[Mike2011]

I want to understand from pakistani pov.

If India has done like kargil (occupies some pakistan controlled area), what would be pakistan response.

1. Fight back conventional weapons.
2. Tactical Nuke the area
3. Attack other part of India

PS. This is my personal opinion. Our leaders does not have balls to use Nuke. These low life ready to handover anything when it comes to their life.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

The doctrine calls for an offensive against Pakistan within 72 hours. Ample duration for Pak Fauj to mobilize the troops and employ counter-strategies since our geography allows a significantly lower response time to threats. Then there is the question of nuclear threshold which depends on real-time scenarios and not merely assumed theoreticals.

Many members have indicated an IAF involvement. Some would already know what that means; full-scale war. It will no longer remain a quick offensive to punish Pakistan and strike terrorist camps or anything.

In either case, I honestly don't see the doctrine being implemented considering the impact of such a decision.

Your geography is the same geography as is on the Indian borders.

All movements on the ground has either dedicated or on call Air Force cover. Hence, a few aircraft do not make a full scale war.

There is also no question of any punishment to be rendered.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

In the words of Pranab Mukherjee; "you are in denial mode".

Thence, there's no fun in taking this any further.

When one can't answer cogently, then the other chap is 'in a denial mode'.

No wonder the Cold Start.

Right on cue - Offence is the best form of defence.

Can't explain and so attack, obfuscate, misquote, selectively edit to mislead others who are reading and so on and so forth !!

Good!

 

[RazorMC]

Your geography is the same geography as is on the Indian borders.

All movements on the ground has either dedicated or on call Air Force cover. Hence, a few aircraft do not make a full scale war.

OK, geography was meant as in depth and not terrain. We can deploy faster since we don't have that much ground to cover. India, on the other hand, has large areas that the army need to cross for troop build-up near the borders.

If the air cover crosses the airspace into Pakistan, then there's going to be air-to-air conflict with the PAF or a surface-to-air one from the SAMs and portable air defense systems or a combination of both. Either way the war is going to be escalated. Still, I don't believe in limited wars. Wars are wars.


I'm off to bed now... my mind is getting slow... can't write more...

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

IBG is practically on the border or so is the belief!

 

[foxbat]

A question.. If an IBG of India gets Tac nuked, what stops india to Tac nuke back some of the reserve / defensive formations of Pakistan army and balancing the odds once again for the IBGs that survive the initial Nuke attack of Pak..??

 

[deckingraj]

A question.. If an IBG of India gets Tac nuked, what stops india to Tac nuke back some of the reserve / defensive formations of Pakistan army and balancing the odds once again for the IBGs that survive the initial Nuke attack of Pak..??

A) Haven't heard about a tactical nuke missile in our arsenal
B) We would be nuking Pak territory vs they nuking our IBG's in their own terrirtory...This is a huge difference
C) We should better nuke entire Pak then resorting to a tactical nuke...because any tactical nuke means there is a great possibility that other side will resort to a punitive retaliation...So from the odds perspective our best bet would be to resort to complete annihiliation hoping that we can reduce damage on our side by taking down as many nukes as we can....

 

[notorious_eagle]

Hypothetically assume that India do have the capability to follow what Cold-Start states...With that set, look at the time frame we are talking about here...72-96 hours...Why do you think that we want to achieve the target in just 3-4 days...because their is a realization that beyond that time-frame International power brokers will halt all the operations on both sides and we will on talking table...it is then we will use our advances as bargaining chip....

Indian Army units present in our territory will be unacceptable to Pakistan Army. So if your thinking that Pakistan Army will come to the negotiation table because of international pressure when Indian Army is parked inside our territory, you are most certainly mistaken. The only condition i see PA coming to the negotiation table is if the Indian IBG's manage to engage and destroy a huge chunk of Pakistan's Armoured and Mechanized Assets. Chances of that happening are very small because the purpose of CSD is not to fight a battle of attrition but to use speed to capture Pakistani territory.

What many people are discounting is that there is simply no way India's IBG's can beat Pakistan's Mechanized Units to the border in terms of speed. Once your IBG's cross the border and start taking punishment from our infantry and mechanized assets, our Armoured Division's Officers will know exactly where you are as PA is now a fully network centric organization. After taking heavy beating from our defenders, your IBG's will be hungry and exhausted while PA's Armoured Formations will be fresh, i will let you decide of whom has the better chance of winning the battle. Oh and also you can't possibly expect much help from the IAF as they will be busy fighting the PAF in the initial time frame.

Also keep in mind that CSD will come into picture only after a terror attack like 26/11, so it would be very hard to convince international power breakers that India is the agrressor state implying it would be very difficult for Pak to carry on the operations...

It depends, if there is evidence that the State of Pakistan is behind the attacks than India will have the sympathy of the world community. If not, than i have a hard time seeing how India can justify an invasion of a sovereign state. Also this is not 65 or 71, both nations are not going to run out of ammunition in the first week of the war.

Now hypothetically if we assume that Pak manage to ignore the international community then definitely it would be difficult to hold off the captured land, howeever that is the question of mobilizing and securing the supply lines at the similar rate of IBG's...If we look around the recent and planned acquisitions one gets an inclination that the GAP is being filled....

This is exactly what i dont understand, how does Indian Army expect to keep its IBG's well fed. Tanks are big, slow and require tons of fuel and maintenance. This will be a logistical nightmare for the Indian Army to build supply lines and keep them open for the IBG's. If you give out the order to your Holding Corps to start mobilizing, it usually takes 24-48 hours. The activity will be immediately noticed and PA will be in full alert to make sure that they are not caught with their pants down, takes out the entire idea of 'element of surprise' thus making CD ineffective. When your supply trucks start moving in, what makes you think that PA wont take them out from stand off range. India had the advantage of firing at our formations and securing their supply lines from a stand off range with the Smerch, but since now PA has acquired the A100, that advantage has been cancelled out. In order for the Smerch to advance and give cover, it will be open to direct fire from our A100's. Artillery is one department where PA is well ahead of IA, thus both your supply trucks and IBG's will take punishment from our Artillery. Overall, this is exactly why i believe CDS is a flawed concept because the premise behind it is completely flawed.

IBG is practically on the border or so is the belief!

Sir, as soon as your IBG's come close to the border, expect PA to go on full alert. Our F16's are now equipped with the latest DB110 Reccon pods. It means that they can look inside India without crossing the border to get real time intelligence and get a good look at your IBG's and where they are located. Chances of your IBG's catching us off guard are extremely low, there is a reason why PA has invested heavily to have full situational awareness.

 

[pundit]

It is instructive to keep in mind that the CSD is just *one* of the ratcheted responses that the IA is preparing.

It is not as if the IBGs will rush into Pakistani controlled territory as soon as the opportunity arises.

After all, Kargil demonstrated that a limited war can in fact be held without escalating into the nuclear domain or even a war with a wider theatre. For this lesson, I think the IA needs to thank the Pakistanis.

My point is that an Indian version of Kargil is also an option. After all, the weasly "LOC is not an international border" line can be put to use in the favour of India as well. There could be several axes along the border where such shallow incursions could be made where the terrain favours the IA units.

I think the PA can be expected to try and dislodge the IA with perhaps some limited offensives. I fancy the IA's chances of keeping the "acquired" territory until the negotiations kick off.

 

[deckingraj]

Please keep in mind that i said assume we have the capability...anyhow let me reply as per the points you raised...

Indian Army units present in our territory will be unacceptable to Pakistan Army. So if your thinking that Pakistan Army will come to the negotiation table because of international pressure when Indian Army is parked inside our territory, you are most certainly mistaken. The only condition i see PA coming to the negotiation table is if the Indian IBG's manage to engage and destroy a huge chunk of Pakistan's Armoured and Mechanized Assets. Chances of that happening are very small because the purpose of CSD is not to fight a battle of attrition but to use speed to capture Pakistani territory.

Bolded part is where all the confusion is...Anyways how deep we will go inside Pakistan is the key...As far as the capabilty is concerned i am not sure...

What many people are discounting is that there is simply no way India's IBG's can beat Pakistan's Mechanized Units to the border in terms of speed. Once your IBG's cross the border and start taking punishment from our infantry and mechanized assets, our Armoured Division's Officers will know exactly where you are as PA is now a fully network centric organization. After taking heavy beating from our defenders, your IBG's will be hungry and exhausted while PA's Armoured Formations will be fresh, i will let you decide of whom has the better chance of winning the battle. Oh and also you can't possibly expect much help from the IAF as they will be busy fighting the PAF in the initial time frame.

May be what you are saying is correct however it can go other way as well but again this is just capability question....I was just stating the doctorine

It depends, if there is evidence that the State of Pakistan is behind the attacks than India will have the sympathy of the world community. If not, than i have a hard time seeing how India can justify an invasion of a sovereign state. Also this is not 65 or 71, both nations are not going to run out of ammunition in the first week of the war.

Honestly speaking India's case would be much stronger than Pakistan's...Please keep in mind when you say Pakistan is a sovereign state then sovereign state has some responsibilities as well...I don't want to get into debate about the perception/credibility on Pakistan's role in terrorists activities by her so called non-state actors, however after restraints in Kargil and Mumbai and India's newly found economic might i don't see India being termed as aggressor...But then again all this is hypothetical...

This is exactly what i dont understand, how does Indian Army expect to keep its IBG's well fed. Tanks are big, slow and require tons of fuel and maintenance. This will be a logistical nightmare for the Indian Army to build supply lines and keep them open for the IBG's. If you give out the order to your Holding Corps to start mobilizing, it usually takes 24-48 hours. The activity will be immediately noticed and PA will be in full alert to make sure that they are not caught with their pants down, takes out the entire idea of 'element of surprise' thus making CD ineffective. When your supply trucks start moving in, what makes you think that PA wont take them out from stand off range. India had the advantage of firing at our formations and securing their supply lines from a stand off range with the Smerch, but since now PA has acquired the A100, that advantage has been cancelled out. In order for the Smerch to advance and give cover, it will be open to direct fire from our A100's. Artillery is one department where PA is well ahead of IA, thus both your supply trucks and IBG's will take punishment from our Artillery. Overall, this is exactly why i believe CDS is a flawed concept because the premise behind it is completely flawed.

As said how deep we will go in is the key here...Anyhow you have some valid points and i don't have the capacity to answer them...To me CSD has just one flaw i.e. assuming the war will remain limite, rest everything is just building capcity and capability which can be achieved....b/w the birth of this new tactical missile do give an inclination that CSD is not completely beaten, no???

 

[Zarvan]

Salam to everone I am a new member here and first thing which I want to say is that I doesnt like India at all but still I have a question for Indian Members guys why do u like to live in dream world why u always think that you are going to strike Pakistan with airforce navy and army and will be able to get away with it why do u always think Pakistan will not hit back or ohter nations will putt pressure on Pakistan and Pakistan will bow to that pressure sir understand this you are not America not even close to it sir our leader might be cowards in front of America but sir we will sure hit you back in case of trouble from you and we will hit back really very hard

 

[sms]

Welcome to PDF!
What a start ... you are on fire man!

Cool down a bit and put hate aside and try to see things without any prejudice you'll find the things are other way round not the way your are thinking.... does it rings a bell? Batti Jali kya?

 

[Zarvan]

Mr SMS Its not Prjiduice but I have been following this website for some years now you most of Indians only like to think that India will attack Pakistan and Pakistan will not hit back because of many reasons first they think that Pakistan is a kid second they think that America and other nations will not let Pakistan do this sir if that was the case why you didnt attack Pakistan after Mumbai Attacks

 

[sms]

^^^ You are still full of prejudice. Have a look at history, India was always caught with pants down and you know who has been aggressor. So assuming that in case of India attack your country you'll be sitting without retaliating is too naive.

What some of Indian members trying to emphasize is that cold start mean to mobilize troops fast enough to garb more area to put you on defensive or at least fight for your own land. A wishful thinking.

You, your follow country men, PA, GOP are free to create a counter strategy to meet your interest.