its as wishful as Palestine. Siachen is India on the rocks and Pakistan is still at the entrance looking to sneak in.
The Chinese and Indian learned planners know things that only can be observed if not accessed from a vantage point.
e.g The LAC is not LOC with Pakistan or IB for that matter. It’s not a line it’s a highlight marker dating back pre independence for both of us.
The macmohan line can more or less be compared with Durand line you have with afghans.
The Chinese try to do what we call “salami slicing “ and you are right, they have been successful until 2014.
But they tested blood in Doklam, baying for it they tried it in Ladakh, again they got beaten.
let’s say they do that again trust me our positions are much closer to the claim line to mobilise meats and bones much faster than they can realise.
I know they will but they also know we will do..,.
So the typ sao planes is where the Chinese have moved 13 kms observing and in a commanding position to cut off the dbo road. This would mean that China and Pakistan would have the ability to cut the supplies for the Indian troops in DBO / airfield and base + cut off the supply to Saichin. That would make keeping troops in both areas very difficult snd May result in a conflict in the spring.
the Chinese objective in Kashmir is to eject India from DBO and Saichin, build a major road via skurdu for year round travel to connect with CPEC. This may or may not cause the Chinese to move the LOC anther30-50 Kms inside Indian occupied Kashmir. So they can ensure it’s out of Indian artillery range. CPEC routs are the life blood of Pakistan and China. The train links all the way to Iran, Turkey and Europe via gawadar will provide a year round land route for energy and supplies to Europe. So expect a lot more action in Kashmir.
Pakistan’s buying a large number of sh-15 so artillery 18 regiments and 200+ Vt-4 tanks equal to 13 tank regiments and over 200 armed drones with local build capability. And higher surveillance with balloon radars. This will mean we are clearly preparing for a mountain war. The objective would be to gain territory quickly and stop at the 50 km mark on the western side of the LoC skurdu, Kargil etc. this is for CPEC.
The Pyongyang tso thing was a distractions but the Indian side folded early. You will now see more Kashmiri regiments come out and be used to reinforce anchal pardesh and galwan. The Chinese will push you harder there.
Thinking out the Kashmiri defense.
In the next 2 years you will see Pakistan prepare and by 2023 with a much larger navy, highly reinforced artillery and a massive armor buildup around a 1000 new tanks , 75 jf-17 block 3 - 50 j-10ce and 72 f-16s + the 100+ mirages and 300-400 armed drones will be a substantial deterrent from moving forces from the eastern Pakistan border.
the question really is how much of Kashmir is India willing to lose to protect Delhi, see if you read chankia he speaks about not giving access to your enemies and India in its wisdom had not built roads and infrastructure in the north as this was the main reason why the Chineses stoped in 1962. Now Modi in his weird infatuation with the military has decided to go against this wisdom. Giving the Chinese a significant advantage in mobility to flank Indian troops on the eastern front. This is the downside of not having a thinker in leadership.
kawa chala hans ki chaal spin chaal bhi Bhool giya
k
