Indian Political Corner | General Election 2014, All Updates & Discussions.

[Jason bourne]

Govt gives a push to Communal Violence Bill


The controversial Communal Violence Bill, which has been hanging fire for some years, is getting a fresh push from the Government with one Union minister even pitching for its introduction in the Winter Session of Parliament.

Union Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde said work has begun on moving ahead with the Prevention of Communal and Targeted Violence Bill that aims to protect minorities from targeted attacks.

“I have sought details of the bill from the concerned department,” he told reporters in Delhi…Asked whether the bill will be tabled in the next session of Parliament, expected to begin November-end, Me. Shinde said he was not sure. “But yes, work has started on it,” he said.

Minority Affairs Minister K. Rahman Khan while noting that Muzaffarnagar riots had underlined inadequacies in existing laws to deal with such clashes pitched for introduction of the Bill in the Winter Session.

Asked if UPA would table the Bill in the next session of Parliament, Mr. Khan told PTI that he was in its favour “but the decision has to be taken by the government”.

A law on the lines of the Bill would have fixed accountability for Muzaffarnagar riots and helped victims who are still waiting for rehabilitation, he said.

The communal clashes in Muzaffarnagar and adjoining areas last month claimed 62 lives and displaced over 40,000 people.

Mr. Khan dismissed BJP’s claim that the UPA government is pushing for the Bill with an eye on elections, saying it has been under consultation for a long time and the government’s job is to function “till the last day”.

BJP has dubbed the Bill as “anti-majority” while some regional parties feel it violated federal principles.

The Bill has also been opposed by some states as it seeks to empower the central government to send central forces unilaterally in the event of communal disturbances.

The draft bill largely sticks to the provisions in the ’Prevention of Communal and Targeted Violence (Access to Justice and Reparations) Bill, 2011’ prepared by Sonia Gandhi-headed National Advisory Council.

Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah said any step that will reduce communal violence is a good thing but the implications of the proposed bill on the state has to be discussed before his party, National Conference, takes any decision.

“What effect it will have on Jammu and Kashmir keeping in view the special status of the state, what will be the role of our party and role of the coalition (partners), it needs to be discussed,” he told reporters in Srinagar. NC is an ally of Congress in UPA.

“I do not see why it should be opposed by any party. It is not any community specific. Any communal violence should be curbed and there should a law for that,” Khan said.

Mr. Khan said he had written to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Mr. Shinde after the riots, pushing for tabling of the Bill in Parliament and the Home Minister wrote back to him, saying it is “under consideration“.

The BJP reacted angrily to the move and accused Congress of trying to “communalise” country before elections.

“We are in support of a law to stop communal violence. But in this Bill some provisions were made deliberately to target certain organisations and groups. Let’s see in what form it comes to Parliament,” party spokesperson Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi said.

Another party leader Balbir Punj said UPA is resorting to diversionary tactic. “They (UPA) are trying to force communal political agenda...trying to communalise the country.”

The bill was first introduced in Rajya Sabha in 2005 and subsequently referred to the Department—related Parliamentary Standing Committee on Home Affairs.

The Committee submitted its report in 2006 to Parliament and notices were given in March 2007, December 2008, February 2009, December 2009 and again in February 2010 in Rajya Sabha for consideration and passing of the Bill.

The bill, however, could not be taken up for consideration on any of these occasions.

Thereafter, several suggestions from civil society groups were received and examined. Finally, the NAC said in July 2010 that there was a need to revise the law to deal with communal violence. It worked on a draft bill and submitted it on July 25, 2011 to the Home Ministry.

Officials in the Union Home Ministry and the Law Ministry reportedly have objected to certain clauses of the draft bill, including responsibility of bureaucrats if communal violence erupts, saying they would come in the way of performing normal duties.

The bill also proposes constitution of a body -- National Authority for Communal Harmony, Justice and Reparation -- by the Centre to exercise the powers and perform the functions assigned to it under this Act...

What the eff they are trying to do

Govt gives a push to Communal Violence Bill


The controversial Communal Violence Bill, which has been hanging fire for some years, is getting a fresh push from the Government with one Union minister even pitching for its introduction in the Winter Session of Parliament.

Union Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde said work has begun on moving ahead with the Prevention of Communal and Targeted Violence Bill that aims to protect minorities from targeted attacks.

“I have sought details of the bill from the concerned department,” he told reporters in Delhi…Asked whether the bill will be tabled in the next session of Parliament, expected to begin November-end, Me. Shinde said he was not sure. “But yes, work has started on it,” he said.

Minority Affairs Minister K. Rahman Khan while noting that Muzaffarnagar riots had underlined inadequacies in existing laws to deal with such clashes pitched for introduction of the Bill in the Winter Session.

Asked if UPA would table the Bill in the next session of Parliament, Mr. Khan told PTI that he was in its favour “but the decision has to be taken by the government”.

A law on the lines of the Bill would have fixed accountability for Muzaffarnagar riots and helped victims who are still waiting for rehabilitation, he said.

The communal clashes in Muzaffarnagar and adjoining areas last month claimed 62 lives and displaced over 40,000 people.

Mr. Khan dismissed BJP’s claim that the UPA government is pushing for the Bill with an eye on elections, saying it has been under consultation for a long time and the government’s job is to function “till the last day”.

BJP has dubbed the Bill as “anti-majority” while some regional parties feel it violated federal principles.

The Bill has also been opposed by some states as it seeks to empower the central government to send central forces unilaterally in the event of communal disturbances.

The draft bill largely sticks to the provisions in the ’Prevention of Communal and Targeted Violence (Access to Justice and Reparations) Bill, 2011’ prepared by Sonia Gandhi-headed National Advisory Council.

Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah said any step that will reduce communal violence is a good thing but the implications of the proposed bill on the state has to be discussed before his party, National Conference, takes any decision.

“What effect it will have on Jammu and Kashmir keeping in view the special status of the state, what will be the role of our party and role of the coalition (partners), it needs to be discussed,” he told reporters in Srinagar. NC is an ally of Congress in UPA.

“I do not see why it should be opposed by any party. It is not any community specific. Any communal violence should be curbed and there should a law for that,” Khan said.

Mr. Khan said he had written to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Mr. Shinde after the riots, pushing for tabling of the Bill in Parliament and the Home Minister wrote back to him, saying it is “under consideration“.

The BJP reacted angrily to the move and accused Congress of trying to “communalise” country before elections.

“We are in support of a law to stop communal violence. But in this Bill some provisions were made deliberately to target certain organisations and groups. Let’s see in what form it comes to Parliament,” party spokesperson Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi said.

Another party leader Balbir Punj said UPA is resorting to diversionary tactic. “They (UPA) are trying to force communal political agenda...trying to communalise the country.”

The bill was first introduced in Rajya Sabha in 2005 and subsequently referred to the Department—related Parliamentary Standing Committee on Home Affairs.

The Committee submitted its report in 2006 to Parliament and notices were given in March 2007, December 2008, February 2009, December 2009 and again in February 2010 in Rajya Sabha for consideration and passing of the Bill.

The bill, however, could not be taken up for consideration on any of these occasions.

Thereafter, several suggestions from civil society groups were received and examined. Finally, the NAC said in July 2010 that there was a need to revise the law to deal with communal violence. It worked on a draft bill and submitted it on July 25, 2011 to the Home Ministry.

Officials in the Union Home Ministry and the Law Ministry reportedly have objected to certain clauses of the draft bill, including responsibility of bureaucrats if communal violence erupts, saying they would come in the way of performing normal duties.

The bill also proposes constitution of a body -- National Authority for Communal Harmony, Justice and Reparation -- by the Centre to exercise the powers and perform the functions assigned to it under this Act...

What the eff they are trying to do

 

[Manvantaratruti]

What the eff they are trying to do

Communal politics.

But when congress does it, its called 'secular' politics by the minority controlled party.

 

[Android]

when in power next year BJP should give a push to Secular Violence Bill

 

[JanjaWeed]

Real face of Secular flag bearers!

Government asking us not to return home: Muzaffarnagar riot-hit

LUCKNOW: Dozens of Muzaffarnagar riots survivors took to the streets here on Saturday to protest alleged attempts to pressurize them into declaring they will not return to their villages and give up claims over their properties in lieu of Rs 5 lakh compensation.

"The district administration is pressurizing us to sign an affidavit, which states we will have to leave relief camps but not return to our villages after availing financial assistance," said survivor Salim Ahmad, who had come to Lucknow along over 50 others to highlight their plight.

"It states we cannot make any further claims. As we are not allowed to go back to our villages after getting the compensation, it implies we will have to forgo claims over our properties that will be either taken over by those who forced us to flee or be confiscated."

The riots were the worst in Uttar Pradesh in decades and killed 65 people earlier this year besides displacing 60,000 people, who live in camps in terrible conditions and continue to fear for their lives with little means of sustenance.

The survivors said they had lost their livelihood as well and Rs 5 lakhcompensation was inadequate. "My wife was gang-raped and our house burnt. Apart from the compensation, the government should provide us a job and house," said a tailor, who now lives in a relief camp along with his wife and two children.

Another survivor said the violators of his wife, who were their neighbors, were threatening them to take the case back. "We have lost everything in the riots and have to support a family of five including two small kids," said the rape survivor.

Zakir, a survivor, said besides losing his home, his two children were crippled in the riots, which cannot be compensated with money. Others complained their family members were still missing.

Lawyer Asad Hayat, who has filed a PIL for CBI probe into the riots, said the government has announced compensation for families of nine villages while residents of 162 villages are living in camps.

"Some are getting compensation for damage to immovable property. There is no reasonable norm of selection and distribution. Not only is the amount inadequate, several victims have yet to be identified."

Rihai Manch had brought the survivors to Lucknow for a public hearing for which the permission was denied forcing the organizers to organize the protest march instead.

Magsaysay awardee Sandeep Pandey criticized the government for its failure to stop communal elements from holding panchayats, but denying permission to survivors to protest peacefully.

Officials said financial assistance was being given to allow the displaced to settle anywhere.

Government asking us not to return home: Muzaffarnagar riot-hit - The Times of India

 

[Chronos]

What the eff they are trying to do

Something the Indian governments have always done, tryng to solve an issue by passing in effect, an ineffectual bill

 

[IndoCarib]

India's small towns favor BJP

(Reuters) - Kasba Bonli is a newly prosperous market town in the northern Indian state of Rajasthan and it should be a perfect advertisement for the ruling Congress party's pro-farmer policies. Instead the buzz in the bazaar is for the opposition.

In just a few years, handouts for farmers by Congress have helped turn the once-deprived village into a thriving retail centre, selling everything from glittery bangles to satellite dishes.

The Congress party-led government pours at least $20 billion a year into rural India in addition to free education and health and cheap food. Cheap fertilizer, seeds and electricity, 100 days of guaranteed paid work a year and new rural roads have given farmers cash to spend.

These funds have helped create an emerging middle class, mostly in semi-urban and small towns, which one estimate has put at almost a quarter of India's 1.2 billion people.

But many in this new middle class believe the next step up the income ladder will come when the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Narendra Modi, its candidate for prime minister and currently the chief minister of neighboring Gujarat state, will be in power. That bodes ill for Congress ahead of a general election that must be held by May.

Farmer Raghuvir Meena, who voted for Congress in the last state polls, bought two new tractors over the past few years and nearly doubled his farming area, attributing the prosperity to better farming techniques and seeds. He sent three of his four children to college to train as teachers. Now he wants to get out of farming and this time Modi has his vote.

"Modi's track record in Gujarat has excited the youth. Even I would love to see BJP come back to power, for my kids, for their jobs," he said, juggling phone calls on his mobile.

Modi is widely seen as a business-friendly reformer who has attracted investment and bolstered economic growth in Gujarat, providing jobs to many.

For Congress this trend in the small towns is the latest in a series of reverses. It is already battling slowing economic growth, perceptions of poor governance, several corruption scandals and the growing popularity of Modi.

For decades, Congress relied on its pro-farmer policies giving it rural votes. Then, at the last election in 2009, it gained wide support in cities during a period of fast economic growth to win a second consecutive term in office.

However, the urban goodwill is fast eroding because of corruption and a sense of policy drift, while its base constituency of rural poor is shrinking.

"It's a new phenomenon. It's not something that we have been used to in the past," said Jairam Ramesh, India's rural development minister, of the demographic shift.

"Very often experience shows that beneficiaries of programs instituted by one party end up voting for the other political party," he said.

MODI'S ALLURE

Beyond the commercial bustle, Kasba Bonli has little to offer to the groups of twenty-somethings who loiter on motorcycles in the dusty market, unable to find work.

Often the first graduates in their families, these young men say they want industries and professional jobs rather than more handouts, and they look to Modi for providing such opportunities, not Congress.

Modi has attracted companies such as Ford Motor Co, Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors to Gujarat, the state he has governed since 2001.

But he is also seen as a polarizing figure. Critics of Modi, a Hindu nationalist, say he didn't do enough to stop religious riots on his watch in 2002 that killed at least 1,000 people, mainly Muslims, although the allegations have never been proved. Others say that despite fast growth, his state is a laggard on social and poverty indicators.

That's not the impression held by Mateem Khan, a frustrated 22-year-old Muslim resident of Kasba Bonli with a lowly data-entry job at the local office for one of the handout schemes, the only skilled work he could find.

"Look at what he has done for Gujarat, there's hardly any unemployment in the state," said Khan. Kasba Bonli's 18,000 people are about half Muslim and half Hindu.

Four banks, 15 private schools, and one private college have sprouted up in the town since 2008, said Ramkishan Gurjar, head of the village council that governs Kasba Bonli. Motorcycle and tractor showrooms have come up over the past three years.

Many local farmers now clutch mobile phones they use to chat to traders about crop prices. Roads have been built to a dozen surrounding villages, helping bring crops quickly to market and consumer goods flowing the other way.

It's a pattern repeated across the country, with swollen villages becoming small towns, creating a demographic group of relatively better off semi-urban voters that barely existed a decade ago, social scientists and politicians say.

Rural consumer spending grew by 36 percent, higher than the 33 percent rise in urban areas, between 2009 and 2012, according to government data.

A national census in 2011 found that 14 percent of India's urban population of about 400 million lived in these towns, double that of a decade earlier. Boston Consulting Group calculates 24 percent of Indian households are now found in small towns.

MAKING HEADWAY

Modi has directly addressed this demographic shift, catering speeches to the new constituency and promising urban amenities such as around-the-clock electricity and broadband internet connections to communities similar to Kasba Bonli.

Opinion polls suggest he is making headway. In a recent Nielsen survey of two largely rural states, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, that contain a quarter of India's population, Modi emerged as the most popular candidate for prime minister.

In Rajasthan, the state in which Kasba Bonli lies, the Congress and the BJP are neck and neck in the villages with support from 46 percent of voters each, according to a July poll by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), a think-tank.

However, in towns of less than 100,000 people, which fall under the semi-urban category, BJP scored 56 percent to Congress's 40 percent.

India electoral mathematics is complicated, taking in local issues as well as caste and religion, making it hard to forecast results. But Rajasthan and four other states hold provincial elections over the next month, which will provide a pointer to how far Modi's popularity extends and how Congress may fare in the national election.

"If you look at people in the (semi-urban) category, they have benefited from education and reservation policies for lower castes. But increasingly our surveys show that, as people get more educated and affluent, the possibility of them voting for the BJP is much higher," said Sanjay Lodha, who co-ordinates CSDS' polls in Rajasthan.

Biting the hand that feeds: India's small towns favor opposition| Reuters

 

[JanjaWeed]

Government to probe foreign funding for Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party

New Delhi:

The Centre has ordered a probe into the source of foreign funding received by Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which will make its political debut in the December 4 Delhi state election.

Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde today said, "Whatever the source of funding is, which country it is coming from, to probe this we have given it to the ministry. We had got complaints about foreign funding and we are investigating. It takes some time."

Mr Kejriwal shot back, "The Congress is scared of AAP. Let them probe us. Finish a probe in 48 hours. But let them also probe how Congress got funds worth Rs. 2000 crore. Let them also investigate the BJP's funding."

The AAP alleges that it is being targeted as opinion polls have predicted better prospects for the first-timers than earlier believed.

According to reports, Mr Kejriwal's fledgling outfit claims to have collected around Rs. 19 crore as donations from 63,000 people, ranging from rickshaw pullers, to traders, industrialists and overseas Indians.

Last month, the Delhi High Court had asked the Centre to look into the accounts of AAP and investigate their source of funding. The government had been asked to file a status report by December 10.

The court's order came on a petition by ML Sharma asking for a probe into the finances of Mr Kejriwal's party. The AAP has so far fended off criticism by saying that their donations are detailed on their website and every rupee is accounted for.

On Sunday, Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit had lashed out at Mr Kejriwal for repeatedly targeting her, with a counter-question on his funding.

"Where do you (AAP) get all the money from? You can call me a liar or I can call you a thief. But is there any proof to say that I am a liar? But there is proof to say that you are a thief," the 75-year-old Chief Minister was quoted telling PTI in an interview.

Government to probe foreign funding for Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party | NDTV.com

Not that I'm a great fan of AAP... but this is vindictive politics. While Congress doesn't want to reveal source of it's funding & got itself out of RTI purview, they want to investigate AAP's source of funding. How bizarre? I'm not against the investigation... but it has to be across the board. All political parties should reveal source of funding....

 

[MST]

Government to probe foreign funding for Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party


Not that I'm a great fan of AAP... but this is vindictive politics. While Congress doesn't want to reveal source of it's funding & got itself out of RTI purview, they want to investigate AAP's source of funding. How bizarre? I'm not against the investigation... but it has to be across the board. All political parties should reveal source of funding....

Is it Surprising? Congis have finally got a stick to beat Kejriwaal. with. They will use this stick to force him to fall in line (support congi govt in Delhi).

 

[SR-91]

If AAP supports congress, it will lose its votes and more over its credibility.Party is finished.IMO, This probe will probably push AAP towards BJP.

 

[Soumitra]

Secular Third Front and other political fables

Conventional wisdom is often more conventional than it is wise. The Congress, resigned to a seat tally either side of 100 in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, has clutched at the only straw within reach: a secular Third Front government. A regional Third Front, according to conventional wisdom, can garner 200 seats. The Congress can then lend it support from outside as it did in 1996-98. Voila! A Third Front-Congress secularentente cordiale is in place, the “communal” BJP thwarted.

The Congress knows this is not a realistic outcome for 2014. And yet it keeps the fiction alive to throw its principal nemesis, the BJP, off guard.

However, the notion of a secular Third Front (TF), helmed by a cabal of discredited or defeated regional leaders, is easy to dismiss.

The leaders in question are:

* Mulayam Singh Yadav in whose state, Uttar Pradesh, over 100 communal riots have taken place since the Samajwadi Party took office in 2012.

* Nitish Kumar, whose popularity and credibility are plunging at roughly the same vertical downward velocity.

* Sitaram Yechury and Prakash Karat who supported UPA-1 to keep “communal forces at bay” but ended up installing allegedly corrupt forces in the UPA government. Their judgement, to put it kindly, is suspect.

* HS Deve Gowda, the former prime minister, whom the Congress imperiously shunted out in 1997, barely a year into the United Front government’s term, when he did not toe its line.

That demolishes the qualitative element of a secular Third Front. What about the quantitative element? Is the Third Front likely to get the 200 Lok Sabha seats it needs for the Congress to prop it up from outside before pulling the plug (say, in 2016)?

A summary of opinion polls projects the following number of Lok Sabha seats for the secular TF in 2014:

SP: 15-20.

JD(U): 5-8.

Left Front: 25-28.

JD(S): 2-3.

BJD: 10-12.

Total: 57-71.

Take the midpoint – 64 seats. Note that the presence of Mulayam’s SP rules out Mayawati’s BSP (and vice versa). Similarly, the Left will keep Mamata’s TMC out. Nitish’s JD(U) rules out Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD.

Now cast the secular TF net wider: In Andhra, the YSR Congress or TSR (not both) could join the front though the possibility is remote. That’s another 15 seats at most.

How about the DMK or AIADMK? Karunanidhi’s party is projected to win less than 10 seats in Tamil Nadu while the AIADMK is unlikely to join the front given the inevitable presence of the DMK among Congress-led allies supporting a TF government from outside. Other Congress allies like the NC and IUML will add little to the basket.

So here’s how the numbers stack up: .

Congress and old allies like the DMK, NC, NCP and IUML: 120 seats.

TF (midpoint): 64.

Add YSR or TRS: 15

Total TF: 79

The final tally: Congress + old allies 120 + secular TF 79 = 199.

Mayawati, Mamata and Lalu, with possibly 65 seats between them, will stay out due to internecine rivalries with Mulayam, the Left and Nitish respectively. In any case, their numbers would be too small to matter.

Remember, in 1996 the United Front had 192 seats, the Congress 140. Total: 332. That’s a far cry from the projected 199 seats today.

* * *

Who then will form the next government? Will the BJP-led NDA have the numbers?

In last week’s analysis, the average number of Lok Sabha seats won by the Congress in four general elections between 1996 and 2004 worked out to 135 (Congress: Why 2004 was a false dawn).

Here’s a similar chart for the BJP in the four Lok Sabha polls between 1996 and 2004:

BJP seats and voteshare: 1996-2004



Seats

Voteshare (%)

1996

161

20.29

1998

182

25.59

1999

182

23.75

2004

138

22.16

The average number of seats won by the BJP in four general elections between 1996 and 2004 works out to 166 from the above chart.

Now consider the 2009 general election.

Last week’s analysis probed the reasons for the Congress’ blip in 2009 of (+)71 seats over its 135-seat average in four general elections between 1996 and 2004. That took its tally to 206 seats in 2009.

Here focus on the reasons for the BJP’s reverse blip in 2009 which led to a fall of 50 seats from its 1996-2004 average (166 seats) to 116 seats in 2009.

The leadership of LK Advani was pitted directly against Manmohan Singh. The country’s urban vote swung the election decisively in favour of the PM’s record as an economic reformist. His reputation for personal probity was at its peak.

The 2G spectrum, Coalgate and other scams would unravel publicly only after 2010. Inflation, the government’s attack on institutions like CAG, CVC and PAC and the sharm el-sheikh effect (post-July 2009) had not yet tarnished the PM’s reputation when the general election was held in May 2009.

If the BJP could fall to 116 seats in 2009, 50 seats below its 1996-2004 average of 166 seats, what factors could take it to 50 seats above its 1996-2004 average (viz, to 216 seats) in 2014?

Three factors present themselves:

One: Unprecedented anti-incumbency against the Congress due to serial misgovernance, corruption, inflation, appeasement of minorities and a soft approach to Pakistani proxy terrorism.

Two: Rahul Gandhi’s negative political equity. Every opinion poll has given him ratings of 15-25% nationally, most of it from the Congress’ traditional vote catchment of the very poor and minorities.

Three: The impact of Narendra Modi who, in head-to-head comparisons with Rahul, wins by a factor of 3:1 nationally in virtually every opinion poll.

Can these three factors combine to raise the BJP’s seat tally by 50 from its 1996-2004 average of 166? The answer to that will determine the course of our politics well into the next decade.

Secular Third Front and other political fables by Head On : Minhaz Merchant's blog-The Times Of India

 

[Star Wars]

third front is a total joke ... i doubt they can sit with each other without having the urge to kill the other one

 

[JanjaWeed]

third front is a total joke ... i doubt they can sit with each other without having the urge to kill the other one

Third front is nothing but a silly coterie where everyone wants to play 'I am PM.. I am PM' game... Not going to work.

 

[Puchtoon]

New Delhi: Opinion polls may be unreliable, but the markets favour the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) over the Congress party-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government to win next year’s general elections, Hong Kong-based securities house CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets said on Monday.
“It is clear that the market favours one outcome over another. It is their right to do that,” Christopher Wood, equity strategist at CLSA, told reporters at the CLSA India Forum in New Delhi.
The brokerage, in a presentation, also projected the state-wise performance of BJP and the probable reasons for it securing 202 seats in the 2014 election: a wave in favour of the party’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi; the appeal of Modi to urban voters; anti-incumbency; polarization; and the strong performance of BJP state governments.
No such scenario was envisaged for the Congress.


CLSA’s view is that India’s “six-month story” is uncertain, but the securities house is optimistic about the country’s “two-year story”.
Among the negatives, CLSA listed fiscal pressure, a weak currency, slowing growth in consumption, political uncertainty and a possible downside to 2014-15 corporate earnings. Among the positives it listed an “uptick” in the investment cycle in 12-18 months, the direct benefits transfer scheme that it called a “bold new reform”, the superior performance of the Indian IT sector, and the fact that banks are becoming aggressive about recovering their dues.
But the securities house’s most controversial analysis is likely to be what it called its “BJP 2014 Blue Sky” (projection).
CLSA India Ltd’s executive director Mahesh Nandurkar explained the rationale behind providing such a projection and said it was because of “a lot of investor queries”.
“I haven’t seen this kind of interest in Indian politics from global investors,” he said.
The Congress has been critical of such analyses in the backdrop of a 7 November report by financial services firm Goldman Sachs Group Inc. which stated that an upgrade in India’s investment prospects was possible if a coalition led by BJP comes to power, and may fuel investment demand, particularly in infrastructure.
In response to the Congress party’s reaction, Wood said, “That happens all over the world. We have no issue with that.”
CLSA’s presentation dovetails with assembly elections in four states—Delhi, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh—that are seen as a direct contest between the Congress and BJP.
“I think banks like Goldman Sachs should stay focused only on doing what they claim to specialize in,” trade minister Anand Sharma was cited as saying in The Economic Times on 8 November.
“Goldman’s latest report on Indian economy and its eagerness to push the case of a particular political leader and his party exposes two things—Goldman is parading its ignorance about the basic facts of Indian economy; and it also exposes its eagerness to mess around with India’s domestic politics. It only makes Goldman’s credibility and motives highly suspect,” he said.
The reference to a particular political leader was to Modi, the Gujarat chief minister who is spearheading the BJP campaign in the state elections after being anointed as the party’s prime ministerial candidate in the next general elections.
“Rather than appreciating the message, they are going after the messenger,” Rajeev Malik, senior economist at CLSA Singapore Pte. Ltd.
Some opinion polls have projected BJP under Modi as the front runner in next year’s general election, but Wood cited a history of such polls going wrong in predicting electoral results.
“Opinion polls represent an urban electorate rather than a rural one. From the sentiment stand point, opinion polls are important, but from the fundamental standpoint it is the investment cycle (that is important to the markets),” he said.
India has witnessed a debate on opinion polls, with the Election Commission having written to the ministry of law and justice for a ban on the publication of such surveys from the date of notification of elections.
India’s economic growth slowed to 5% in the year ended 31 March, the slowest pace in 10 years, and is forecast by some economists and international agencies to slow further in the current fiscal year. Economists have blamed the stalling of economic reforms during much of the UPA government’s second term in office for the slower pace of growth. And many investors have decided they are better off waiting to see who comes to power in next year’s general election rather than taking an investment decision now.
“The tone and agenda will be set up by the next government,” Malik said. “The political will is not there. It is an inefficiently run economy and any kind of incremental improvement will have a constructive role.”
Indeed, nothing is happening because corruption had become the standard way of getting things done, explained Wood. And everything has come to a standstill in the absence of any other way of getting things done. The ruling UPA government has been roiled by several corruption scandals related to irregularities in the allotment of spectrum, coal mines, and organizing the Commonwealth Games.
CLSA is of the opinion that India’s current account deficit, which rose to a record 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the last fiscal year, makes the economy vulnerable to overseas investor sentiment. The Reserve Bank of India expects the deficit to narrow to around $56 billion, or less than 3% of GDP, in the current year.
CLSA said the deficit makes the Indian economy prone to global shocks.
The rupee has lost 11.89% against the dollar since January, the third most after the Indonesian rupiah and the Japanese yen in Asia, and closed on Monday at 62.42 per dollar, strengthening after US Federal Reserve chairperson nominee Janet Yellen said she will continue the $85 billion a month asset-purchase programme.
“The corporate sector has borrowed a lot of dollars. They have also borrowed a lot on the private side and pledged their shares. Most of these firms expected that the rupee wouldn’t cross to the other side of the 60s. There is more dollar borrowing in India as compared to the South-East Asia,” Wood said.
CLSA believes the rupee will weaken.
“During 2002-07 was the only time that the rupee appreciated. This is a currency that is trying to correct itself to pre-2002 levels,” Malik said.
Malik sounded a cautionary note on India’s future growth. “The bottom line is it will be a graded protracted recovery. While a subdued global growth and easy liquidity benefited India earlier, even if India’s growth improves, the global liquidity environment is a concern.”
Wood, though, was optimistic about India’s future prospects. “The best companies in emerging markets are in India,” Woods said.

Investors inclined towards a BJP win in 2014 election: CLSA - Livemint

 

[IndoCarib]

Congress does a last ditch effort to save Laloo Yadav so he can contest polls. Looses again

Supreme Court dismisses Centre's plea on jailed persons - Indian Express

 

[Jason bourne]

Bharatiya Janata Party Key Points of the Manifesto

BJP endeavors to give ‘Good Governance’ with emphasis on Security for all, Clean and Pollution free city with world class infrastructure, people friendly accountable Govt.

1. Full statehood for cosmopolitan Delhi #BJPManifesto

2. Controlling vegetable prices in 30 days, #BJPManifesto

3. 12 subsidized cylinders in a year, #BJPManifesto

4. 30% reduction in power tariff, #BJPManifesto

5. Clean & drinking water for all, #BJPManifesto

6. Right to Health ; Universal health insurance cover, #BJPManifesto

7. Trauma Centres to open in all Districts & mobile hospitals, #BJPManifesto

8. Family Clinics to give affordable health care, especially in rural areas, #BJPManifesto

9. 25 medicines to be given free during life time, #BJPManifesto

10. Accident insurance of Rs 4.0 lakh for VAT registered traders/simplification of VAT #BJPManifesto

11. State of the art foot overbridges for pedestrians & fly overs on busy crossings to make them signal free’ #BJPManifesto

12. More coaches on Metro train & Multi levels of Metro lines to increase capacity #BJPManifesto

13. Constitution of ‘Atal Yuva Mission’ for youth welfare #BJPManifesto

14. IT zones in Narela, Bijwasan & Najafgarh, Employment to all #BJPManifesto

15. Integrated concessional Smart Card for students to be valid in Metro, DTC & Feeder services #BJPManifesto

16. Economic criteria for student scholarships #BJPManifesto

17. Madarasa board to be established; Congress never established Madarasa Board #BJPManifesto

18. Unauthorized colonies to be regularized, lay out fee to be born by Delhi govt, #BJPManifesto

19. Section 81 & 33 to be amended to regularize existing colonies in rural areas; Congress amended this clause to regularize construction in urban villages only, #BJPManifesto

- - 2 - -

20. Lal Dora to be extended, #BJPManifesto

21. Ownership rights to landless who were allotted houses in Bees Sutri programme, #BJPManifesto

22. One self occupied house of a rural family to be exempted from house tax, #BJPManifesto

23. Jahan Jhuggi, Wahin Makaan; ‘Atal Bihari Vajpayee Jan Punarvas Yojana’ for rehabilitation of slum dewellers in Pucca houses #BJPManifesto

24. Double storey & Local Shopping Centres to be made freehold and their FAR to be increased, #BJPManifesto

25. Sanitation & Parking to be modernized with the assistance of experts, #BJPManifesto

26. 24 hr helpline and Special Commando Force for women protection under CM’s office, #BJPManifesto

27. Single window facility for women Entrepreneurs for paying Statutoty taxes, #BJPManifesto

28. Support in working capital from Delhi Finance Corporation for women entrepreneurs, #BJPManifesto

29. Crèche facility in Anganwadis to be started for working women from low income groups, #BJPManifesto

30. Infant Mortality Rate to be brought down from 28 per thousand to 15/1000 in two years, #BJPManifesto

31. Pension for differently abled, widows, destitute women & senior citizens to go up from Rs1000/1500 per month to flat Rs2000/ per month, #BJPManifesto

32. Setting up of ‘Senior Citizen Commission’ #BJPManifesto

33. Setting up of ‘Migrants Commission’ for welfare of migrants, #BJPManifesto

34. Free cycle to newspaper hawkers, #BJPManifesto

35. Allocating space to vendors for weekly haats, #BJPManifesto

36. Battery rikshaws to be brought under MCD; currently they are neither monitored nor supported, #BJPManifesto

37. First time in India, setting up of ‘Public Safety Deptt’, #BJPManifesto

38. Respite from environmental and noise pollution,

39. Yamuna to be cleaned on war footing, #BJPManifesto

40. Delhi’s cultural identity to be restored, Fine Arts to be promoted in big way, #BJPManifesto

41. Delhi became a major trafficking centre of young girls under a woman CM; we have given solution for that too. #BJPManifesto