Jason bourne
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It is my desire that Rahul Gandhi becomes PM: Shinde
It is my desire that Rahul Gandhi becomes PM: Shinde
It is my desire that Rahul Gandhi becomes PM: Shinde
Indian Political Corner | General Election 2014, All Updates & Discussions.
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JanjaWeed
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Here pops another one from brown nosing congressi beeline!
Jason bourne
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Appeasement to Sonia Gandhi ...god forbid if its happen I mean rahul Gandhi as India's prime minister ... I don't even want to comment abt that
Echo_419
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Appeasement to Sonia Gandhi ...god forbid if its happen I mean rahul Gandhi as India's prime minister ... I don't even want to comment abt that
Shub Shub Bolo yaar
Aryavart
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Modi is filling the vacuum of visible leadership in India
In all the discussions about the rise of Narendra Modi, we never seem to consider the most obvious explanation. There is an iron law in global politics: when things are going well, people don’t worry too much about leadership. They want non-controversial politicians who stay out of their way and let them get on with their lives without needless conflict.
But when things go wrong, people look for the opposite. They want visible leadership. They prefer their politicians to seem totally in control. They like somebody who is not scared of conflict. And though they say they want to be inspired, what they are really looking for is reassurance. They want a leader who tells them that he or she knows the way out of the crisis.
History is replete with examples of this phenomenon. The best one is Winston Churchill. For most of his career, he was reviled as a dangerous demagogue, an egomaniac, a man in search of conflict, an arrogant leader who brooked no dissent and whose views were imperialist and racist. (He called Mahatma Gandhi a ‘half-naked fakir’.)
But when World War II broke out, the same people who had once cast him out called on Churchill to lead the country. All the qualities that had once seemed so objectionable — the arrogance, the demagoguery, and his conviction that only he understood the way ahead — now seemed inspirational.
There are so many other examples — Charles De Gaulle, Margaret Thatcher, etc — that the Americans have a slang term for the phenomenon. In good times, people want to be Mummy-ed. But in bad times, they want Daddy to show them the way.
It does not require a massive leap of imagination to see how this phenomenon has manifested itself in India. The UPA took office in good times, when most Indians were not only better off than before but also believed that things would keep getting better.
In that era, we were happy to be Mummy-ed. And the mild-mannered Manmohan Singh, with his technocratic skills, was the perfect prime minister. Five years later, when things had got better, India re-elected the UPA with a larger margin.
It is significant that Narendra Modi was around in 2004 when the UPA took office. He was already chief minister of Gujarat but was regarded as a fringe figure. When the UPA won re-election in 2009, Modi had become the BJP’s most powerful chief minister.
But he was still a regional strongman, and was seen as a politician whose divisive communalised politics would keep him away from power in Delhi.
So, why is it that Modi’s fortunes have been so completely transformed? Why is he now a putative prime minister? And why is Manmohan Singh the most unpopular prime minister in recent memory?
It isn’t as though Modi has changed. He still hasn’t apologised for the 2002 riots or for the communalised campaign he ran after the violence. He is as arrogant, as polarising and as much of a demagogue as he has always been.
The difference is that times have changed. The economy has tanked. Nobody believes that we will be better off in the years ahead — not as long as this government is in office, anyway.
Law and order has spun out of control. The government cannot control prices. And corruption scandal after corruption scandal rocks the government.
History tells us that in times of crisis, people need visible leadership. And yet, this government has provided no evidence that it knows how to lead. Never in Indian history have top leaders been so remote and so uncommunicative. Rarely has a prime minister seemed less in control. At a time when India needs to feel that he knows the way out of this mess, he is himself ducking for cover.
Instead, it is Modi who has seized the opportunity and filled the gap. While the UPA’s leaders cower, he goes from rally to rally. He talks of solutions in the form of the so-called Gujarat model. He gives interviews. He blogs. He tweets. He provides sound-bites. And in his demagoguery lies the reassurance that many insecure Indians are looking for.
It is not as though India has forgotten the events of 2002. Nor is it that voters have suddenly turned communal or anti-Muslim. It is just that at a time when a crisis-ridden India is being run by an invisible prime minister, many Indians will take whatever visible leadership they can find.
The UPA has spent too long ignoring the rise of Narendra Modi. It has failed to successfully demolish his exaggerated claims on behalf of the so-called Gujarat model. It makes the mistake of believing that Modi’s polarising record will keep people from voting for him.
In fact, voters have not forgotten 2002. But they are now so fed up and desperate that they are willing to take the chance that Modi will be more responsible this time.
The only hope for the UPA is to demonstrate that there is life beyond Manmohan Singh and his Cabinet and coterie of yesterday’s men. It must push a younger generation forward and suggest that it can provide strong, imaginative and visible leadership.
Its leaders can no longer afford to parachute in and out of the issues. There must be sustained engagement in political discourse and there must be evidence of bold decision-making.
Otherwise, in urban India at least, Modi is fast becoming the man of the future; not because India has forgotten all the terrible things that he has done but because the UPA has forgotten how to govern and how to lead. And nature abhors a vacuum.
Modi is filling the vacuum of visible leadership in India - Hindustan Times
In all the discussions about the rise of Narendra Modi, we never seem to consider the most obvious explanation. There is an iron law in global politics: when things are going well, people don’t worry too much about leadership. They want non-controversial politicians who stay out of their way and let them get on with their lives without needless conflict.
But when things go wrong, people look for the opposite. They want visible leadership. They prefer their politicians to seem totally in control. They like somebody who is not scared of conflict. And though they say they want to be inspired, what they are really looking for is reassurance. They want a leader who tells them that he or she knows the way out of the crisis.
History is replete with examples of this phenomenon. The best one is Winston Churchill. For most of his career, he was reviled as a dangerous demagogue, an egomaniac, a man in search of conflict, an arrogant leader who brooked no dissent and whose views were imperialist and racist. (He called Mahatma Gandhi a ‘half-naked fakir’.)
But when World War II broke out, the same people who had once cast him out called on Churchill to lead the country. All the qualities that had once seemed so objectionable — the arrogance, the demagoguery, and his conviction that only he understood the way ahead — now seemed inspirational.
There are so many other examples — Charles De Gaulle, Margaret Thatcher, etc — that the Americans have a slang term for the phenomenon. In good times, people want to be Mummy-ed. But in bad times, they want Daddy to show them the way.
It does not require a massive leap of imagination to see how this phenomenon has manifested itself in India. The UPA took office in good times, when most Indians were not only better off than before but also believed that things would keep getting better.
In that era, we were happy to be Mummy-ed. And the mild-mannered Manmohan Singh, with his technocratic skills, was the perfect prime minister. Five years later, when things had got better, India re-elected the UPA with a larger margin.
It is significant that Narendra Modi was around in 2004 when the UPA took office. He was already chief minister of Gujarat but was regarded as a fringe figure. When the UPA won re-election in 2009, Modi had become the BJP’s most powerful chief minister.
But he was still a regional strongman, and was seen as a politician whose divisive communalised politics would keep him away from power in Delhi.
So, why is it that Modi’s fortunes have been so completely transformed? Why is he now a putative prime minister? And why is Manmohan Singh the most unpopular prime minister in recent memory?
It isn’t as though Modi has changed. He still hasn’t apologised for the 2002 riots or for the communalised campaign he ran after the violence. He is as arrogant, as polarising and as much of a demagogue as he has always been.
The difference is that times have changed. The economy has tanked. Nobody believes that we will be better off in the years ahead — not as long as this government is in office, anyway.
Law and order has spun out of control. The government cannot control prices. And corruption scandal after corruption scandal rocks the government.
History tells us that in times of crisis, people need visible leadership. And yet, this government has provided no evidence that it knows how to lead. Never in Indian history have top leaders been so remote and so uncommunicative. Rarely has a prime minister seemed less in control. At a time when India needs to feel that he knows the way out of this mess, he is himself ducking for cover.
Instead, it is Modi who has seized the opportunity and filled the gap. While the UPA’s leaders cower, he goes from rally to rally. He talks of solutions in the form of the so-called Gujarat model. He gives interviews. He blogs. He tweets. He provides sound-bites. And in his demagoguery lies the reassurance that many insecure Indians are looking for.
It is not as though India has forgotten the events of 2002. Nor is it that voters have suddenly turned communal or anti-Muslim. It is just that at a time when a crisis-ridden India is being run by an invisible prime minister, many Indians will take whatever visible leadership they can find.
The UPA has spent too long ignoring the rise of Narendra Modi. It has failed to successfully demolish his exaggerated claims on behalf of the so-called Gujarat model. It makes the mistake of believing that Modi’s polarising record will keep people from voting for him.
In fact, voters have not forgotten 2002. But they are now so fed up and desperate that they are willing to take the chance that Modi will be more responsible this time.
The only hope for the UPA is to demonstrate that there is life beyond Manmohan Singh and his Cabinet and coterie of yesterday’s men. It must push a younger generation forward and suggest that it can provide strong, imaginative and visible leadership.
Its leaders can no longer afford to parachute in and out of the issues. There must be sustained engagement in political discourse and there must be evidence of bold decision-making.
Otherwise, in urban India at least, Modi is fast becoming the man of the future; not because India has forgotten all the terrible things that he has done but because the UPA has forgotten how to govern and how to lead. And nature abhors a vacuum.
Modi is filling the vacuum of visible leadership in India - Hindustan Times
Puchtoon
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It would be a dangerous mistake to ignore Modi: Omar Abdullah
It would be a dangerous mistake to ignore Narendra Modi, Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah has said, adding the UPA has failed to offer an alternative to the people.
Speaking exclusively to Hindustan Times, the chief minister said, “I think it would be foolish for us (UPA constituents) to ignore the Modi factor. In fact, it would be a dangerous mistake.”
Elaborating on the ‘Modi factor’, Abdullah said, “Six months ago if you had asked me I would have said the Modi factor would have no effect at all, but today it would be foolish on my part to do that. Modi has galvanised the cadre and there is an expectation even in Jammu that they (the BJP) would return to power under Modi. A galvanised cadre can be a make or break factor in an election.”
The BJP had on September 13 declared the Gujarat chief minster its prime ministerial candidate for 2014 elections.
Abdullah admitted that the UPA constituents, including his National Conference, had failed to offer an alternative discourse. “It is my failing,’’ he said. “It is not helping us to allow him such a long rope -- so as to allow him to hang us. As a constituent of the UPA, it is binding on me to devise an alternate discourse but our strategy is to keep our powder dry. I hope we don’t find that we kept it dry for too long.’’
It would be a dangerous mistake to ignore Modi: Omar Abdullah - Hindustan Times
It would be a dangerous mistake to ignore Narendra Modi, Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah has said, adding the UPA has failed to offer an alternative to the people.
Speaking exclusively to Hindustan Times, the chief minister said, “I think it would be foolish for us (UPA constituents) to ignore the Modi factor. In fact, it would be a dangerous mistake.”
Elaborating on the ‘Modi factor’, Abdullah said, “Six months ago if you had asked me I would have said the Modi factor would have no effect at all, but today it would be foolish on my part to do that. Modi has galvanised the cadre and there is an expectation even in Jammu that they (the BJP) would return to power under Modi. A galvanised cadre can be a make or break factor in an election.”
The BJP had on September 13 declared the Gujarat chief minster its prime ministerial candidate for 2014 elections.
Abdullah admitted that the UPA constituents, including his National Conference, had failed to offer an alternative discourse. “It is my failing,’’ he said. “It is not helping us to allow him such a long rope -- so as to allow him to hang us. As a constituent of the UPA, it is binding on me to devise an alternate discourse but our strategy is to keep our powder dry. I hope we don’t find that we kept it dry for too long.’’
It would be a dangerous mistake to ignore Modi: Omar Abdullah - Hindustan Times
Sugarcane
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Sugarcane
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Despite all these achievements you support BJP? thank less people.
And being Pakistan i can fly Pakistani flag anytime with/without any reason
Sugarcane
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Sugarcane
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Pakistan India are magnetic North & South poles
Sugarcane
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Get down of your high horse dude and don't start this holier than thou - Spend some time here before going personal with me.
ptltejas
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Well I posted in other theread, but let it be here,
plz, go to National Portal of India and go to topics and subtopics and give your ideas that what we really need from the leaders and party. we must be least concerned about the modi vs rahul and also congree/UPA vs BJP/NDA. let them be responsible to us. plz give your Ideas or posts to what we ask to government and what we need.
my submissions are, river link, more Express ways, metro for bombay, Fiber optical last mile connectivity,
for defence, new fighters instead mig-21.
plz, go to National Portal of India and go to topics and subtopics and give your ideas that what we really need from the leaders and party. we must be least concerned about the modi vs rahul and also congree/UPA vs BJP/NDA. let them be responsible to us. plz give your Ideas or posts to what we ask to government and what we need.
my submissions are, river link, more Express ways, metro for bombay, Fiber optical last mile connectivity,
for defence, new fighters instead mig-21.
ptltejas
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Well I posted in other theread, but let it be here,
plz, go to National Portal of India and go to topics and subtopics and give your ideas that what we really need from the leaders and party. we must be least concerned about the modi vs rahul and also congree/UPA vs BJP/NDA. let them be responsible to us. plz give your Ideas or posts to what we ask to government and what we need.
my submissions are, river link, more Express ways, metro for bombay, Fiber optical last mile connectivity,
for defence, new fighters instead mig-21.
plz, go to National Portal of India and go to topics and subtopics and give your ideas that what we really need from the leaders and party. we must be least concerned about the modi vs rahul and also congree/UPA vs BJP/NDA. let them be responsible to us. plz give your Ideas or posts to what we ask to government and what we need.
my submissions are, river link, more Express ways, metro for bombay, Fiber optical last mile connectivity,
for defence, new fighters instead mig-21.
Puchtoon
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Countdown to 2014: Electoral math part 1
The 2014 general election could be Indias most decisive since 1977. The BJP has anointed its prime ministerial candidate: Narendra Modi. The Congress has not but Rahul Gandhi is clearly the partys face for 2014.
In every parliamentary democracy Britain, Australia and Canada are three examples parties always choose their leader before a general election.
British voters in 2010, for instance, knew who would be prime minister if the party represented by the local candidate they voted for won. If the Conservatives formed the government, it would be David Cameron. If Labour took office, it would be Gordon Brown. Such clarity is necessary in parliamentary democracy.
This study analyses three variables voteshare trends, state-wise alliances and the projections of recent surveys conducted by polling agencies. The party-wise, state-wise seat projections have been arrived at after giving specific weightages to each variable. The projections are subjective and should be treated as interpretative of available data.
In the 2009 Lok Sabha election, the BJP won an abysmal 18.80% national voteshare and 116 seats. The Congress garnered 28.55% voteshare (206 seats). This study suggests the BJPs voteshare could climb to just over 26% its highest ever. Its previous high of 25.59% was in 1998 when it won 182 seats. The extra percentage point can translate into over 20 seats in a fragmented polity.
16th Lok Sabha Projections, 2014
State Total Seats: Cong: BJP
Andhra Pradesh: 42: 6: 5
Arunachal Pradesh: 2: 2: 0
Assam: 14: 4: 5
Bihar: 40: 2: 18
Chhattisgarh: 11: 2: 9
Delhi: 7: 1: 6
Goa: 2: 0: 2
Gujarat: 26: 3: 23
Haryana: 10: 3: 5
Himachal Pradesh: 4: 1: 3
Jammu & Kashmir: 6: 2: 2
Jharkhand: 14: 3: 8
Karnataka: 28: 11: 14
Kerala: 20: 6: 0
Madhya Pradesh: 29: 5: 24
Maharashtra: 48: 10: 15
Manipur: 2: 1: 0
Meghalaya: 2: 1: 0
Mizoram: 1: 1: 0
Nagaland: 1: 1: 0
Odisha: 21: 4: 0
Punjab: 13: 2: 4
Rajasthan: 25: 9: 16
Sikkim: 1: 0: 0
Tamil Nadu: 39: 0: 0
Tripura: 2: 0: 0
Uttarakhand: 5: 1: 4
Uttar Pradesh: 80: 5: 39
West Bengal: 42: 5: 0
Andaman & Nicobar: 1: 0: 1
Chandigarh: 1: 1: 0
Dadra and Nagar Haveli: 1: 0: 1
Daman & Diu: 1: 0: 1
Lakshadweep: 1: 1: 0
Puducherry: 1: 0: 0
Nominated Members: 2: 0: 0
Total: 545: 93: 205
Note: In states where Cong+BJP projected seats dont add up to total seats, UPA/NDA allies or unattached regional parties make up the projected balance as follows:
NDA allies projected seat tally: SS 16, SAD 7, HJC 1,
INLD 1, Independents/Others 4. Total 29.
UPA allies projected seat tally: NCP 4, NC 2, Independents/Others: 5 Total 11.
Leaning BJP: AIADMK 27, TDP 7, MNS 3, AGP 2, Others 8. Total 47.
Leaning Congress: YSR 13, DMK 10, RJD 10, Others 4. Total 37.
Unattached Regional: JD(U) 10, TMC 25, BSP 15, SP 21, BJD 14, TRS 10,
Left Front 28. Total 123.
Summary:
BJP (205) + allies (29)= 234 + Leaning BJP (47) = 281
Congress (93) + allies (11) = 104 + Leaning Congress (37) = 141
Unattached Regional = 123
Key takeaways:
The Telangana imbroglio will be tricky for all parties. This study assumes that till the protests in Seemandhra subside, it could be difficult but not impossible for the UPA government to form Telangana before the Lok Sabha election. For the purpose of this study though, Andhra Pradesh has been taken as an undivided unit.
In Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party governments polarisation of Muslims has led to over 100 communal riots since mid-2012. Jat-Muslim unity is broken in Western UP and this could help the BJP consolidate its traditional upper caste votes with Jats to increase its voteshare from 18% to around 28% enough to win between 35 and 40 seats.
In Bihar, following Lalu Prasad Yadavs arrest, the RJD will garner a sympathy vote from its Muslim-Yadav votebank. The Congress has three options: make informal seat sharing arrangements with either the RJD or the JD(U) or go it alone. Whichever option it finally chooses, it could end up with very few seats. The BJP may emerge as the largest single party in the state due to a consolidation of upper caste and OBC votes following Modis campaign in Bihar where grassroots workers will despite Modis own distaste for caste politics highlight his OBC identity.
The study assumes B.S. Yeddyurappas KJP will either merge with the BJP before the 2014 Lok Sabha poll or conclude seat sharing arrangements with it. The BJPs projected Karnataka tally of 14 includes the KJPs.
In Maharashtra, Raj Thackerays MNS may not agree to seat adjustments with the BJP-Shiv Sena-RPI but its projected seats (3) are counted separately as a post-poll BJP ally.
Babulal Marandis Jharkhand Vikas Morcha could, however, agree to pre-poll seat sharing arrangements with the BJP in Jharkhand projected to garner 8 out of 14 seats against the Congress-JMM front.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will have little national impact on the Lok Sabha poll though it could do relatively well in the Delhi state assembly elections in December.
* * *
BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modis campaign, leading up to voting in April-May 2014, could trigger a larger wave than the moderate wave assumed in this study. Such an enhanced Modi wave could increase the BJPs tally from the projected 205 seats to over 220 seats. In that event, pre-poll allies (29 seats see chart) and around 25 MPs from small post-poll allies and independents would take the BJP past 272 seats, allowing it the luxury of using the AIADMK, TDP and other likely post-poll allies as a cushion to cross 300 seats.
It has been argued that the BJP needs 50 seats in Uttar Pradesh to win 200 seats nationally. This is tendentious. In this study, the BJP is projected to win only 39 seats in UP and still win 205 seats in the Lok Sabha.
Uttar Pradesh is vital but so are the other large catchment states like Gujarat (23), Madhya Pradesh (25), Rajasthan (16), Bihar (18) and Maharashtra (15). These five states alone could contribute nearly 100 seats to the BJP. Four others Delhi (6), Karnataka (14), Jharkhand (8) and Chhattisgarh (9) could account for another 37 seats. With UPs 39 seats, the BJPs tally from just these 10 prime states would be around 175 of the projected 205. States like Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Assam and Goa would be among those which would then contribute to the final figure.
Clearly, Modi should follow a dual strategy: one, focus on the 10 big catchment states cited above with a potential of 175 seats; and two, cast a nationwide net for states where the BJP has limited presence as his pan-national wave builds. The BJP is likely to contest 450 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. To win 205, as this study suggests, it needs a strike rate of just over 45% difficult but doable.
* * *
The Congress de facto prime ministerial candidate is Rahul Gandhi. But the party recognises that, despite the food security and land acquisition acts and the direct benefit transfer scheme, it wont be able to win enough seats to form a government with Third Front support or support a Third Front government from outside as in 1996-98. Put together, the Congress (93), its UPA allies (11), leaning Congress (37) and the non-overlapping Third Front (123 seats less RJD/JDU, SP/BSP, Left/TMC) are projected to win just 210 seats.
Rahul will thus likely sit in the opposition, build the party and await 2019. He will be nearly 50 years old then (on June 19, 2020). With a new cache of young voters (who are today between 12 and 17 years old) eligible to vote for the first time in 2019, the number of below 28-year-olds will by then swell to nearly 300 million (including 150 million first-time voters who would be between 18 and 23 in 2014).
They will be connected to social media and could determine Indias electoral landscape well into this century. They are aspirational, want jobs and dislike the privilege and entitlement that come with dynasty. To win them over, Rahul will have to reinvent himself.
Modi meanwhile must ration his appearances over the next seven months. Over-exposure could lead him to peak early. Fortunately for him, the five state assembly elections will provide a natural break between the first and second phases of his campaign the latter gathering pace from January 2014 to polling day in May 2014.
Corruption, inflation and governance should dominate his campaign speeches along with his alternative vision for the economy, foreign policy, Pakistan, terrorism, China, healthcare, fiscal reform, education, sanitation, subsidies, and judicial, police and administrative reforms.
The last two years have stalled the countrys growth story. If elected, Prime Minister Modi will have to hit the ground running to make up for lost time.
Countdown to 2014: Electoral math
The 2014 general election could be Indias most decisive since 1977. The BJP has anointed its prime ministerial candidate: Narendra Modi. The Congress has not but Rahul Gandhi is clearly the partys face for 2014.
In every parliamentary democracy Britain, Australia and Canada are three examples parties always choose their leader before a general election.
British voters in 2010, for instance, knew who would be prime minister if the party represented by the local candidate they voted for won. If the Conservatives formed the government, it would be David Cameron. If Labour took office, it would be Gordon Brown. Such clarity is necessary in parliamentary democracy.
This study analyses three variables voteshare trends, state-wise alliances and the projections of recent surveys conducted by polling agencies. The party-wise, state-wise seat projections have been arrived at after giving specific weightages to each variable. The projections are subjective and should be treated as interpretative of available data.
In the 2009 Lok Sabha election, the BJP won an abysmal 18.80% national voteshare and 116 seats. The Congress garnered 28.55% voteshare (206 seats). This study suggests the BJPs voteshare could climb to just over 26% its highest ever. Its previous high of 25.59% was in 1998 when it won 182 seats. The extra percentage point can translate into over 20 seats in a fragmented polity.
16th Lok Sabha Projections, 2014
State Total Seats: Cong: BJP
Andhra Pradesh: 42: 6: 5
Arunachal Pradesh: 2: 2: 0
Assam: 14: 4: 5
Bihar: 40: 2: 18
Chhattisgarh: 11: 2: 9
Delhi: 7: 1: 6
Goa: 2: 0: 2
Gujarat: 26: 3: 23
Haryana: 10: 3: 5
Himachal Pradesh: 4: 1: 3
Jammu & Kashmir: 6: 2: 2
Jharkhand: 14: 3: 8
Karnataka: 28: 11: 14
Kerala: 20: 6: 0
Madhya Pradesh: 29: 5: 24
Maharashtra: 48: 10: 15
Manipur: 2: 1: 0
Meghalaya: 2: 1: 0
Mizoram: 1: 1: 0
Nagaland: 1: 1: 0
Odisha: 21: 4: 0
Punjab: 13: 2: 4
Rajasthan: 25: 9: 16
Sikkim: 1: 0: 0
Tamil Nadu: 39: 0: 0
Tripura: 2: 0: 0
Uttarakhand: 5: 1: 4
Uttar Pradesh: 80: 5: 39
West Bengal: 42: 5: 0
Andaman & Nicobar: 1: 0: 1
Chandigarh: 1: 1: 0
Dadra and Nagar Haveli: 1: 0: 1
Daman & Diu: 1: 0: 1
Lakshadweep: 1: 1: 0
Puducherry: 1: 0: 0
Nominated Members: 2: 0: 0
Total: 545: 93: 205
Note: In states where Cong+BJP projected seats dont add up to total seats, UPA/NDA allies or unattached regional parties make up the projected balance as follows:
NDA allies projected seat tally: SS 16, SAD 7, HJC 1,
INLD 1, Independents/Others 4. Total 29.
UPA allies projected seat tally: NCP 4, NC 2, Independents/Others: 5 Total 11.
Leaning BJP: AIADMK 27, TDP 7, MNS 3, AGP 2, Others 8. Total 47.
Leaning Congress: YSR 13, DMK 10, RJD 10, Others 4. Total 37.
Unattached Regional: JD(U) 10, TMC 25, BSP 15, SP 21, BJD 14, TRS 10,
Left Front 28. Total 123.
Summary:
BJP (205) + allies (29)= 234 + Leaning BJP (47) = 281
Congress (93) + allies (11) = 104 + Leaning Congress (37) = 141
Unattached Regional = 123
Key takeaways:
The Telangana imbroglio will be tricky for all parties. This study assumes that till the protests in Seemandhra subside, it could be difficult but not impossible for the UPA government to form Telangana before the Lok Sabha election. For the purpose of this study though, Andhra Pradesh has been taken as an undivided unit.
In Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party governments polarisation of Muslims has led to over 100 communal riots since mid-2012. Jat-Muslim unity is broken in Western UP and this could help the BJP consolidate its traditional upper caste votes with Jats to increase its voteshare from 18% to around 28% enough to win between 35 and 40 seats.
In Bihar, following Lalu Prasad Yadavs arrest, the RJD will garner a sympathy vote from its Muslim-Yadav votebank. The Congress has three options: make informal seat sharing arrangements with either the RJD or the JD(U) or go it alone. Whichever option it finally chooses, it could end up with very few seats. The BJP may emerge as the largest single party in the state due to a consolidation of upper caste and OBC votes following Modis campaign in Bihar where grassroots workers will despite Modis own distaste for caste politics highlight his OBC identity.
The study assumes B.S. Yeddyurappas KJP will either merge with the BJP before the 2014 Lok Sabha poll or conclude seat sharing arrangements with it. The BJPs projected Karnataka tally of 14 includes the KJPs.
In Maharashtra, Raj Thackerays MNS may not agree to seat adjustments with the BJP-Shiv Sena-RPI but its projected seats (3) are counted separately as a post-poll BJP ally.
Babulal Marandis Jharkhand Vikas Morcha could, however, agree to pre-poll seat sharing arrangements with the BJP in Jharkhand projected to garner 8 out of 14 seats against the Congress-JMM front.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will have little national impact on the Lok Sabha poll though it could do relatively well in the Delhi state assembly elections in December.
* * *
BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modis campaign, leading up to voting in April-May 2014, could trigger a larger wave than the moderate wave assumed in this study. Such an enhanced Modi wave could increase the BJPs tally from the projected 205 seats to over 220 seats. In that event, pre-poll allies (29 seats see chart) and around 25 MPs from small post-poll allies and independents would take the BJP past 272 seats, allowing it the luxury of using the AIADMK, TDP and other likely post-poll allies as a cushion to cross 300 seats.
It has been argued that the BJP needs 50 seats in Uttar Pradesh to win 200 seats nationally. This is tendentious. In this study, the BJP is projected to win only 39 seats in UP and still win 205 seats in the Lok Sabha.
Uttar Pradesh is vital but so are the other large catchment states like Gujarat (23), Madhya Pradesh (25), Rajasthan (16), Bihar (18) and Maharashtra (15). These five states alone could contribute nearly 100 seats to the BJP. Four others Delhi (6), Karnataka (14), Jharkhand (8) and Chhattisgarh (9) could account for another 37 seats. With UPs 39 seats, the BJPs tally from just these 10 prime states would be around 175 of the projected 205. States like Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Assam and Goa would be among those which would then contribute to the final figure.
Clearly, Modi should follow a dual strategy: one, focus on the 10 big catchment states cited above with a potential of 175 seats; and two, cast a nationwide net for states where the BJP has limited presence as his pan-national wave builds. The BJP is likely to contest 450 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. To win 205, as this study suggests, it needs a strike rate of just over 45% difficult but doable.
* * *
The Congress de facto prime ministerial candidate is Rahul Gandhi. But the party recognises that, despite the food security and land acquisition acts and the direct benefit transfer scheme, it wont be able to win enough seats to form a government with Third Front support or support a Third Front government from outside as in 1996-98. Put together, the Congress (93), its UPA allies (11), leaning Congress (37) and the non-overlapping Third Front (123 seats less RJD/JDU, SP/BSP, Left/TMC) are projected to win just 210 seats.
Rahul will thus likely sit in the opposition, build the party and await 2019. He will be nearly 50 years old then (on June 19, 2020). With a new cache of young voters (who are today between 12 and 17 years old) eligible to vote for the first time in 2019, the number of below 28-year-olds will by then swell to nearly 300 million (including 150 million first-time voters who would be between 18 and 23 in 2014).
They will be connected to social media and could determine Indias electoral landscape well into this century. They are aspirational, want jobs and dislike the privilege and entitlement that come with dynasty. To win them over, Rahul will have to reinvent himself.
Modi meanwhile must ration his appearances over the next seven months. Over-exposure could lead him to peak early. Fortunately for him, the five state assembly elections will provide a natural break between the first and second phases of his campaign the latter gathering pace from January 2014 to polling day in May 2014.
Corruption, inflation and governance should dominate his campaign speeches along with his alternative vision for the economy, foreign policy, Pakistan, terrorism, China, healthcare, fiscal reform, education, sanitation, subsidies, and judicial, police and administrative reforms.
The last two years have stalled the countrys growth story. If elected, Prime Minister Modi will have to hit the ground running to make up for lost time.
Countdown to 2014: Electoral math
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