@darmaskian all political pandits are predicting that this elections will see the sharpest polarization of upper caste votes towards bjp,so no worries on that front.
Ultimately every single yadav vote bjp is able to draw away from mgb will decide their fate.
Political pandits have got in wrong in the past too..
& haven't they called Bihar Elections -one of the toughest to predict or even a nightmare for pollsters??
Also when I mean total consolidation of Upper castes, I mean 90% of votes+ them throwing all their money,influence & muscle power behind the NDA.
No sensible UC will even vote for RJD by mistake except some Rajputs who have some local leaders in it.
What is worrying is that some UCs(Brahmins,Kayasthas,Bhumihars etc) could vote for Congress or the JDU.
Also the side which bahubalis like Anant Singh(ex-JDU MLA-Bhumihar) who Nitish recently arrested to get some votes from OBCs/EBCs takes will matter in some 6-7 seats.
Will he still support the MGB & return to it after the elections proving that NiKu throwing him in jail was a jumla for votes or will he go with the BJP which he should have already done seeing that it is the natural enemy of the MGB??
anant singh - Google Search
& NO, I feel that yadavs as a caste will ONLY vote for MGB & even for NiKu but with some hesitation. Lalu has worked really hard to convince them & have u seen the tickets they have received above!!
Even Muslims+Kurmi haven't received that much
.
Lalu is counting big on their influence_muscle power
But the yadav YOUTH will vote for the BJP if the BJP does what I have mentioned above+proves that isn't anti-OBC or anti-Yadav. Forget Yadav youth, youth all over Bihar could go to the BJP if they prove that they aren't against their community.
@magudi:- So what do u think about the rest of my analysis?? Is it good taking into consideration that I am an 18 year old ?
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& TBH guys, we mustn't discount the role of the brains of Prashant Kishore,Lalu Yadav & Amit Shah!! We know how smart & cunning they are when it comes to electoral politics.