Congress gives 40% seats to upper caste people in Bihar - The Times of India
PATNA: Congress on Wednesday tried to reconsolidate its traditional vote bank of upper castes, Muslims and Dalits by preferring members from these three communities in ticket distribution.
A castewise analysis of Congress' all 41 candidates revealed the party has fielded
members of upper castes on around 40% seats, Muslims on around 25%, SC/ST on around 25% while backwards on the rest 10% seats.
The party has fielded upper caste candidates on 16 seats, Muslims on 10, SC/ST on 10 and backwards on five seats.
Out of 16 seats allotted to upper castes, five seats each have been given to Brahmins and Bhumihars, while three seats each have gone to Rajputs and Kayasthas. Of the five seats going to backwards, three have been given to members of Yadavs and one each to Kurmi and Chandravanshi community.
Congress has fielded five women candidates — Bihar Pradesh Mahila Congress president Amita Bhushan (Begusarai seat), Bhawna Jha (Benipatti), Indu Sinha (Purnia), Poonam Paswan (Korha) and Purnima Yadav (Gobindpur).
The party has renominated all its five sitting MLAs from their respective seats. They are: Congress Legislature Party leader Sadanand Singh (Kahalgaon), Ajeet Sharma (Bhagalpur), Md Tausif Alam (Bahadurganj), Md Javed (Kishanganj) and Md Afaque Alam (Kasba).
Besides,
the Congress has accommodated three JD(U) leaders by nominating them on the seats allotted to it by the Mahagathbandhan. These leaders are JD(U) sitting MLAs Manohar Prasad Singh (Manihari) and Poornima Yadav (Gobindpur), and former MLA Anil Kumar (Bhore).
In 2010 elections, Poornima Yadav had won as JD(U) candidate from Nawada seat, while her husband Kaushal Yadav had won as JD(U) candidate from Gobindpur. As Nawada and Gobindpur seats this year were allotted to the RJD and Congress, respectively, as part of seat-sharing, Poornima was made Congress candidate from Gobindpur while her husband was shifted to Hisua as JD(U) candidate.
Anil Kumar, who unsuccessfully contested the 2014 Lok Sabha election as JD(U) candidate from Gopalganj parliamentary seat, has been fielded from Bhore (SC) as Congress candidate. Senior Congress leader Samir Mahaseth has been made RJD candidate from Madhubani.
Denied nomination, Vinod Sharma on Wednesday quit as state Congress general secretary. Sharma, party sources said, wanted ticket from Bikram seat in Patna district. But the party allotted the symbol to Siddhartha, son of Patna's famous paediatrician Dr Utpal Kant. Siddharth had contested the 2010 assembly polls from Bikram seat as an LJP candidate and had lost to the BJP's Anil Kumar by a margin of just 2,352 votes.
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My analysis below as of now:-
One can make out from the way seats have been allotted in all parties that
the MGB is trying to:-
1)Prevent the Upper Caste vote from consolidating towards the BJP(especially Brahmins & Bhumihars.) through the Congress. Manish tewari's statement about reservation confirms this.
2)Get as many Dalit/Maha-Dalit votes as possible taking into consideration the threat from Paswan & Manjhi.
JDU will get the Maha-Dalits, RJD & Congress some dalits.
3)Consolidate the Muslim vote(obvious) ENTIRELY towards it to make sure MIM & third front don't get any
4)Even though the Congress has given only 5 seats to OBCs,
60% have gone to yadavs.
MGB is also relying heavily on a total yadav polarisation to take on the NDA
5)Cong. has been given too many seats in Bihar, maybe this was done to make sure the captive Congress vote-bank could be convinced to vote for RJD & JDU all over Bihar seeing the no. of seats given to Congress which is very weak in Bihar.
It may be small in number. But in such an election even 1% matters. Also RJD & JDU are accommodating some of their leaders through the Congress.
But they should be careful, this could seriously backfire in their face if it doesn't work as it is supposed to
6)Congress is consolidating it's Vote-bank to keep them with it at least for this election & prepared for future purposes(Bihar Congress also wants to grow & expand in it's state)
7)Reservation statement by Bhagwat will be milked as far as possible to get OBCs,EBCs & SCs!
Also just have a look at the total no. of tickets allotted to Yadavs & Muslims in all parties!!
No to BJP-PDP gov op Twitter: "Nitish has intriguingly given tickets to 22 Kushwahas.Looks like he is eyeing weak base of RLSP"
It is obvious that the all the parties in the MGB are depending heavily on their core vote-banks to come out & vote & are doing their best to get them out by giving them seats & respect wherever required.
Core vote-bank coming out+35-40% of SCs(Dalit+Maha-Dalit)+45-50% of OBC-EBC(Excluding Yadavs & Kurmis)+some muscle power will be more than enough to restore the MGB to power!!
[Some dalit votes for the MGB will come out through muscle power]
Don't forget a good no. of SCs are leaders in all the 3 parties, also the RJD & JDU have a strong connect with both OBCs & EBCs(Except possibly the Baniyas).
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Hope for the BJP:-
1)Make sure of a total upper caste consolidation in it's favour
2)Max. security in polling booths as far as possible to prevent Bahubali & goondas from arm-twisting the election in the MGB's favour. Or counter-deploy their own muscle power if the need arises
3)Running after Yadav's like the BJP is doing won't work, they as a caste will only vote for the MGB & so will the Kurmis thanks to the efforts of Lalu & Nitish.
Run after the YOUTH(on a whole & not just from some communities), pander to their promises:-Jobs, opportunities, skill development, encouragement of start-ups & entrepreneurs & even wi-fi if required. Youth can make a big difference in this elections, they can go against the trend if required & when given the chance/hope to do so!!
If handled properly, BJP can expect youth all over Bihar(even Muslims) regardless of caste to vote for them.
4)Praveen Patil recommendations:-
BJP should highlight it's efforts to get 24/7 Bijli!! Piyush Goyal has done fantastic work on this front!
& BJP has to make big & sensible promises to farmers to get their votes seeing the -ve publicity LAB could them
& regarding education, am expecting nothing from the BJP on this front. I doubt they can do anything in this field at all
5)
JUNGLE RAJ RETURNS!!- Create fear psychosis in anybody who is not a Yadav,Kurmi or a muslim to vote for them. Especially among the undecided
No to BJP-PDP gov op Twitter: "Mahagatbandhan gives tickets to whopping 65 Yadavs.Looks like Yadav Raj certain to return should Lallu-Nitish win"
6)Urban areas will vote for the BJP in large numbers, expect landslide victories for the BJP over here.
Reason:- Lalu yadav+Jungle Raj+vikas
.
Though the JDU can be a spoilsport in some urban constituencies, also watch out for urban areas cum ghettos which have a large Muslim-Yadav-Kurmi presence just in case..
7)Rural areas are the main concern for the BJP! They have to put a lot of effort here.
Vikas+Infra. development+24/7 Bijli+ quality of roads can win votes from these areas
Caste Consolidation:-
8)
BJP has to work towards a total SC consolidation in their favor. Manjhi(Maha-Dalit) & Paswan(Dalit) are important in this! Hindi speaking SC leaders should be called from other states to show that the BJP is not against them
9)
Illustrate the new OBC/MBC/EBC leaders of the BJP especially Modi! Hindi-speaking OBC/MBC/EBC leaders from other states should be deployed to get votes+prove the BJP is not against them.
Total consolidation towards BJP is impossible, but getting 60+% of votes is not.
10)Max. damage control to be deployed towards Mohan Bhagwat's statements. Every karyakarta must memorise the clarification for the statement issued out by the RSS regarding this issue, this clarification should also be said in every rally by the local leaders till the suspicion towards the BJP dies out.
BUT
If the above is true, then the reservation statement could backfire on the face of the MGB.
11)As many Modi rallies as possible+targeting the shameless hypocrisy of all 3 opposition parties in the MGB & the fact they even have an alliance in the first place
Behind the scenes work:-
12)BJP must do what it can to create an advantage/atmosphere on the ground for the third front parties+MIM to take away as many votes from the MGB ,though they should be cautious of losing votes from their side too!
Third front parties should be given enough money to campaign(I feel the third front is propped up by the BJP)
13)IF POSSIBLE, create an atmosphere to make sure that the JDU,RJD & COngress cadre or leaders can NEVER stay united & always quarrel/fight with each other
This can only be done through subterfuge/stealth/public statements by leaders & is very,very hard to achieve & requires proper planning
BUT if this is properly achieved , it can ensure landslide victories for the BJP all over Bihar. Even if it isn't properly achieved(40-50% of it's true potential), it will still ensure a victory for the NDA
After all
A house divided can not stand
14)Get leaders from Poorvanchal(UP) & Jharkhand to campaign in the border areas. Also wherever Islamic radicalisation is strong in Bihar, get Hindutvavadis up there . Hindutvavadis will anyway vote only for the BJP
15)Get Bihari migrants outside Bihar to vote for the BJP especially those in NDA voting states(Maha.,Gujarat etc) & then to get their relatives/friends in Bihar to do the same! Remind Biharis WHY they have to go outside Bihar in the first place, remind them of the proud & glorious past of Bihar too! Remind them of the thrashing that Bihari asmita which Nitish talks about took under Lalu's Jungle Raj
16)Modi must illustrate his good work at the centre+BJP put rest to all misconceptions & -ve stuff spreading against them thanks to the opposition(15 lakh one, too many foreign trips etc)
17)Disillusionment against Nitish for joining Lalu+ too many seats to the Congress+ seat-sharing allottment squabbles will hurt the alliance. Though how much it will hurt is the question
& so my analysis ends.
Read Praveen Patils's analysis here-
Swarajya-5Forty3 Pre-Poll Survey: Neck To Neck In Bihar | Swarajya
& lastly winning Bihar is VERY,VERY Important for both sides!!
For the BJP:- It could determine their fate at the centre in 2019+raise the morale & enthusiasm of their leaders/cadre all over India for a long,long time
For the MGB:- Their survival in Bihar is at stake , & if the Congress loses heavily, it could be finished for ever & could face large-scale defections all over India.
We all know how important this particular election is. But I doubt if most of us,around the country(including me) realise it's true & actual importance in the long term fate of our country, our people & our attitude/mentality in the long term.
This is also a larger plan of the Enemy!(regarding the MGB/grand alliance)
Phase-1 was Delhi, this is Phase-2 of the plan which if successful after modifications & adaptations in other elections could finally be implemented at the ending of 2018 for the 2019 General Elections!
This is about whether Hindu Consolidation+Development will triumph over Shameless Casteism+Populism!
& if this happens in one of the most casteist states in the country & against such impossible odds!
Then there is hope for this country,hope for it's people & hope for a better future & a better people
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Thanking you if you read such a long analysis.
This is just the initial part, I will update & write a final analysis in some time possible just before Phase-1 begins & after elections, my exit polls+exit polls analysis
PLEASE GIVE YOUR OPINION ABOUT IT!! Whether it be Postive or Negative, I spent a long,long time writing this
& your opinion will come of use in the future analysis' .
