Ayush
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aapka chaheta rahul harne wala hai..Oye shubh shubh bolo
Bhagwan unko lambiiiiii zindagi de
Indian Political Corner | All Updates & Discussions.
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cheekybird
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What an idiot
@arp2041 @chak de INDIA @JanjaWeed @Roybot @kurup @jha @GreenFoe @jbond197
@cheekybird ये कांग्रेसी भी न। अब राहुल जी को ही..........
Bhagwan na kareaapka chaheta rahul harne wala hai..
She's a kid so no competition here
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cheekybird
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Ye laziza fararri kon hai?
Aww thx,he's looking nice,no?koi baat nahi .... gurlz ko zayaada mehnat nahi karni chahiye.complexion bigad jaayega
aap bus yeh video enjoy karen
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arp2041
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Ye laziza fararri kon hai?
Mujhey pata hai aap 5th class FAIL ho, varna Rahul Baba thodi pasand ata
Laissez Faire Definition | Investopedia
BTW, he is associated with one of the largest opinion/exit poll agency in India - CSDS.
cheekybird
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Fake tweet
Proud Hindu
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paranoiarocks
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Father of economics coined Laissez Faire ,Let it be (Free Market)
punjabiboy
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Campaign2014Kashi
Near UP-Mp Border Place Gharsedi
Young Voter Campaign In Kashi
Workers Also support Modi ......Banaras
Near UP-Mp Border Place Gharsedi
Young Voter Campaign In Kashi
Workers Also support Modi ......Banaras
Soumitra
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Any reason why permission is denied?
punjabiboy
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Nukkad Meeting in Banaras .....Modi Sarkar
Team Kashi
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The Noon Analysis of May 7th: Where are we heading?
Posted : 7:42 am, May 7, 2014 by admin
In the past we have seen that around this time is where the BJP leadership and the workers start to relax after 80% of India has already voted. But the problem is that more than 40% of Uttar Pradesh and 30% of Bihar are yet to vote, two most crucial states for saffron renaissance in 2014. One of the redefining features of this election is that BJP’s leadership is relentless in attack and hasn’t let down its guard even after 80% polling.
In the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, the entire party machinery has probably never been so well primed as it is today. The genius of Amit Shah in managing the largest state of India would be something that we would be discussing for years to come. Modi’s Amethi rally seems to have done the trick of galvanizing the party cadre further to give one final push. In Amethi district, as our team has been tracking this region for the past 2-3 days, the mood is clearly one of confrontation although opinions of voters are not very forthcoming.
Contrast this heightened combative mood of average BJP (and NDA) workers to the pall of gloom in the opposition camp. The first few phases of the 2014 election have shown such a surge for BJP that the morale of the cadre of opposition parties is at an all-time low. Congress is almost non-existent in heartland, while BSP workers are lying so low that since today morning, reports emanating from various places in eastern-UP suggest that nobody from the party is even willing to bring in their core voters to the polling booths. Similarly, the average JDU worker and even scores of sitting legislators of JDU in Bihar are actually working for the BJP since last few days. The only parties which are putting up some fight are the two Yadav outfits, SP and RJD in UP and Bihar respectively.
Of the 64 seats that are going to polls today, almost 50% or 31 seats are from the heartland – UP, Bihar, Himachal and Uttarakhand. We are tracking both the major states in real-time and should have some indicative numbers from the hill state of Himachal Pradesh by late evening. The other crucial state of Seemandhra is again a state that we will have delayed reports from.
Uttar Pradesh
This is an interesting phase in terms of votes as three segments of voters make big impact in many parts in this phase – Kurmis, Dalits and Brahmins. This is over and above the votes of other segments like Yadavs and Muslims. Kurmi/Patel vote will play an important role in this phase so we are tracking it to see if Apna Dal has had any impact on the saffron surge. Brahmins who had tilted in a big way towards Congress and BSP in the 2009 polls are also of significance in this phase. Dalits are important because the non-Jatavs are shifting allegiance from Maya to Modi.
In 2009, Congress had won a whopping 7 seats out of 15 here, so the party still has the ability to divide the non-BJP votes. For BSP this is now probably a existential battle as it is really struggling to keep its flock together and not let go of its core Dalit voters. For SP, this is a phase where they are once again trying a weaker version of MY (Muslim-Yadav) combination which is not really giving them any great traction. For BJP this is a decisive phase which will decide how strong a Modi Prime Ministership could be.
What is clear from the above chart is that BJP’s vote consolidation among upper castes is almost total which negates all the MSM theories of a rift between Brahmins and Thakurs. Among non-Yadav OBCs too BJP is in pole position and is also getting a large chunk of Yadav votes. What is also telling in the above graphic is the division of the non-BJP vote which is telling us a story of clear saffron edge on this Wednesday afternoon. The only competitor to BJP in UP is SP which can potentially stall Modi but has very little traction beyond Yadavs and Muslims which may not be enough in the end analysis.
Bihar
Once again a very important state from the heartland that will decide the power and the strength of Modi’s prime ministership. This is a phase that will tell us whether the MY combo of RJD-Congress still has the strength to oppose BJP’s momentum as it did in the last two phases or whether BJP will wrest back the initiative here. This is also the phase where JDU has some areas of strength, so how that plays out eventually in cutting the so called “secular” vote may decide the number of seats for the BJP.
Again we are seeing a tight race in Bihar which may go to the wires, but the silver lining for the BJP alliance is a better than expected performance from JDU. Since these are just broad raw-data trends we cannot really hazard a guess as to number of seats due to non-availability of weighted data points. Yet, we can safely presume that probably this phase could also see a similar pattern of the previous two phases and not a sweep by BJP as was seen in the first two phases.
Seemandhra
The reports from Seemandhra are still very sketchy, but initial indicators are pointing towards a close fight between YSRC and NDA. BJP is slightly ahead in Tirupati and is fighting a tough battle in Vizag where Jagan Reddy’s mother has a slender lead over Hari Babu. We will have further details from here by late afternoon and evening.
Disclaimer: Real-time raw data just gives us broad overall trends and are not actual vote-share projections as confused by many readers. Real projections are done after statistical adjustments to raw data based on social profile weightage, urban-rural vote weightage and many such electoral factors. Since adding weightages and using mathematical models is time consuming, we give only real-time updates on the day of polling and make actual projections only after polling day.
Related posts:
Posted : 7:42 am, May 7, 2014 by admin
In the past we have seen that around this time is where the BJP leadership and the workers start to relax after 80% of India has already voted. But the problem is that more than 40% of Uttar Pradesh and 30% of Bihar are yet to vote, two most crucial states for saffron renaissance in 2014. One of the redefining features of this election is that BJP’s leadership is relentless in attack and hasn’t let down its guard even after 80% polling.
In the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, the entire party machinery has probably never been so well primed as it is today. The genius of Amit Shah in managing the largest state of India would be something that we would be discussing for years to come. Modi’s Amethi rally seems to have done the trick of galvanizing the party cadre further to give one final push. In Amethi district, as our team has been tracking this region for the past 2-3 days, the mood is clearly one of confrontation although opinions of voters are not very forthcoming.
Contrast this heightened combative mood of average BJP (and NDA) workers to the pall of gloom in the opposition camp. The first few phases of the 2014 election have shown such a surge for BJP that the morale of the cadre of opposition parties is at an all-time low. Congress is almost non-existent in heartland, while BSP workers are lying so low that since today morning, reports emanating from various places in eastern-UP suggest that nobody from the party is even willing to bring in their core voters to the polling booths. Similarly, the average JDU worker and even scores of sitting legislators of JDU in Bihar are actually working for the BJP since last few days. The only parties which are putting up some fight are the two Yadav outfits, SP and RJD in UP and Bihar respectively.
Of the 64 seats that are going to polls today, almost 50% or 31 seats are from the heartland – UP, Bihar, Himachal and Uttarakhand. We are tracking both the major states in real-time and should have some indicative numbers from the hill state of Himachal Pradesh by late evening. The other crucial state of Seemandhra is again a state that we will have delayed reports from.
Uttar Pradesh
This is an interesting phase in terms of votes as three segments of voters make big impact in many parts in this phase – Kurmis, Dalits and Brahmins. This is over and above the votes of other segments like Yadavs and Muslims. Kurmi/Patel vote will play an important role in this phase so we are tracking it to see if Apna Dal has had any impact on the saffron surge. Brahmins who had tilted in a big way towards Congress and BSP in the 2009 polls are also of significance in this phase. Dalits are important because the non-Jatavs are shifting allegiance from Maya to Modi.
In 2009, Congress had won a whopping 7 seats out of 15 here, so the party still has the ability to divide the non-BJP votes. For BSP this is now probably a existential battle as it is really struggling to keep its flock together and not let go of its core Dalit voters. For SP, this is a phase where they are once again trying a weaker version of MY (Muslim-Yadav) combination which is not really giving them any great traction. For BJP this is a decisive phase which will decide how strong a Modi Prime Ministership could be.
What is clear from the above chart is that BJP’s vote consolidation among upper castes is almost total which negates all the MSM theories of a rift between Brahmins and Thakurs. Among non-Yadav OBCs too BJP is in pole position and is also getting a large chunk of Yadav votes. What is also telling in the above graphic is the division of the non-BJP vote which is telling us a story of clear saffron edge on this Wednesday afternoon. The only competitor to BJP in UP is SP which can potentially stall Modi but has very little traction beyond Yadavs and Muslims which may not be enough in the end analysis.
Bihar
Once again a very important state from the heartland that will decide the power and the strength of Modi’s prime ministership. This is a phase that will tell us whether the MY combo of RJD-Congress still has the strength to oppose BJP’s momentum as it did in the last two phases or whether BJP will wrest back the initiative here. This is also the phase where JDU has some areas of strength, so how that plays out eventually in cutting the so called “secular” vote may decide the number of seats for the BJP.
Again we are seeing a tight race in Bihar which may go to the wires, but the silver lining for the BJP alliance is a better than expected performance from JDU. Since these are just broad raw-data trends we cannot really hazard a guess as to number of seats due to non-availability of weighted data points. Yet, we can safely presume that probably this phase could also see a similar pattern of the previous two phases and not a sweep by BJP as was seen in the first two phases.
Seemandhra
The reports from Seemandhra are still very sketchy, but initial indicators are pointing towards a close fight between YSRC and NDA. BJP is slightly ahead in Tirupati and is fighting a tough battle in Vizag where Jagan Reddy’s mother has a slender lead over Hari Babu. We will have further details from here by late afternoon and evening.
Disclaimer: Real-time raw data just gives us broad overall trends and are not actual vote-share projections as confused by many readers. Real projections are done after statistical adjustments to raw data based on social profile weightage, urban-rural vote weightage and many such electoral factors. Since adding weightages and using mathematical models is time consuming, we give only real-time updates on the day of polling and make actual projections only after polling day.
Related posts:
Jason bourne
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CBI gave clean chit to amitshah in isarat zahan case ; ) achhe din ane lage he
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