Rahul to Giyo !!!!AHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHA
Constituency Watch: Amethi Special Part 2: The falling prince
Posted :
10:06 am, May 7, 2014 by
admin
After the post-noon session, Amethi is seeing some mindboggling trends! Could there be history here in Gandhi territory? Amethi is in a flux, no doubt about that. Can Rahul Gandhi be defeated? That is a billion dollar question that we are trying to answer here at 5Forty3. Let us try and look what exactly is the Amethi caste-vote matrix in order to gauge what social segments would be important today.
Roughly 175000 Yadavs and some 1 lakh OBCs who had voted overwhelmingly for SP in the 2012 assembly polls leading to the party’s victory in 3 out of 5 seats here are a crucial demographic in play. Since SP is not contesting from here in the MP elections and since Mulayam and his son have a tacit understanding with the Gandhi dynasty, it was widely believed among political circles of UP that the OBC-Yadav vote would be shifted to Rahul Gandhi in Amethi 2014. Unfortuantely, the Samajwadis are unable to hold on to their own vote-base all over UP, so holding on to Yadav-OBCs here in Amethi is proving to be a herculean task.
Similarly, the 1.2 lakh Brahmin voters and some 90k Thakur voters are also now a core vote of the BJP in UP as we have seen in different phases till now. Can Rahul keep the upper caste votes like in the past going against the UP trends was another major question in the run-up to today’s election.
- There seems to be a three-way split in Amethi with AAP’s Kumar Vishwas doing surprisingly well despite losing momentum in the last few days in the run-up to the polls
- What should really worry Congress and Rahul Gandhi is that AAP is getting almost a quarter of Dalit and Muslim votes
- BJP is getting huge traction among its core upper caste votes and non-Yadav OBCs
- BJP is also getting a huge 40% of Yadav votes which means the Congress-SP combined strategy has not succeeded all that much here in Amethi
- Modi-wave has ensured that a large number of fence-sitters are voting for BJP, but had AAP not fielded a strong candidate then probably Smriti Irani would have decisively won Amethi
Now we have clearly received unconfirmed reports of some 12 booth capturing incidents from Amethi, this could be the last resort for the Gandhis who cannot afford to lose this election. But let us for a moment consider this whole exercise logically – there are some 1500 polling booths in Amethi parliamentary seat, so even if hara-kiri takes place in a dozen or so polling booths, it would still not be enough to surmount a big lead by the opposition. On 16th May, if the lead for Rahul Gandhi is less than 50k, then we can possibly assume that he hasn’t really won by fair means, whereas if the lead is much bigger than that, then any such nefarious activities (even if they have taken place) wouldn’t have mattered much.
With this kind of lead being projected by our raw numbers and considering that at least 5-10% under-reporting is possible for opposition votes in Amethi (for both BJP as well as AAP) due to the sheer power of the Gandhis, we can predict that Rahul Gandhi is losing Amethi as of now with the caveat of some x factors like booth-level management etc. The only other X factor is AAP’s much better performance in Amethi. Rahul Gandhi is sure to have sleepless nights till the 16th now!
forget it ....
