High voter turnout may spell bad news for Samajwadi Party in UP
Ashish Tripathi,TNN | Apr 25, 2014, 03.34 AM IST
LUCKNOW: The 12 constituencies which went to polls in the third round of Lok Sabha election in UP also saw high voter turnout like previous two phases. Having high concentration of Yadavs and considered to be bastion of Samajwadi Party, the region saw polling percentage go up to 60.12 % from 44% in 2009. This could be bad news for SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav because past trends show that the BJP generally gains when voting is high.
The election results of these 12 constituencies between 1991 and 2009 show that the fight has mainly been between the SP and the BJP. Average turnout has been mostly below 50% and SP usually has had an edge over the BJP. However, in 1998, the polling was over 56%, and the BJP swept the polls by winning eight seats as SP followed with just three. This time, the voter turnout is said to be one of the highest after independence.
In 1998, non-Yadav OBCs had polarised along with upper castes and a section of Dalits towards the BJP due to sympathy for Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Vajpayee's government at the Centre had lasted only 13 days because of lack of allies as Opposition parties ganged up in the name of secularism to keep BJP out of power. This time, political analysts say, polarisation in favour of the BJP is being seen from the first round of polls due to the large-scale communal riots since 2012 and strong anti-incumbency against the Congress led UPA government at the Centre and Akhilesh Yadav government in the state.
"SP's winning combination in the region has included OBCs and Muslims. However, this time, BJP led by its PM candidate Narendra Modi, who himself is an OBC, seems to have cobbled up 1998 winning equation of non-Yadav OBCs, including Jats and upper castes as well as a section of Dalits," said Deepak Mishra, a political observer.
Realizing the importance of this phase, SP has fielded strong candidates including sitting MPs and Mulayam from Mainpuri, his daughter-in-law Dimple from Kannauj and nephew Akshay from Firozabad.
The Jat-dominated RLD, facing threat due to drift of Jat votes towards BJP after Muzaffarnagar riots, has also fielded stalwarts in two constituencies in alliance with Congress - RLD chief Ajit Singh's son Jayant Chaudhary from Mathura and former SP general secretary Amar Singh from Fatehpur Sikri.
Among Congress candidates, only Salman Khurhid, union minister for external affairs and sitting MP from Farrukhabad, is noteworthy.
BJP seems to be relying mainly on Modi power as it has given tickets to first-timers, turncoats and losers of 2009 Lok Sabha and 2012 assembly elections. Past election results show that irrespective of the poll percentage, SP has never lost in Mainpuri and Kannauj since 1998. Similarly, In Hardoi, SP won in 1998, 2004 and 2009.
SP also won most elections in Etawah and Firozabad after 1991, but BJP grabbed the two seats in 1998 when polling percentage was 58.83% and 52.52% respectively in the two constituencies.
On the other hand, Hathras and Mathura have been BJP strongholds as the party won most elections since 1991 including 2009 when its ally RLD won on the two seats.
However, Agra and Etah have seen bitter fight between SP and BJP since 1991 with BJP winning in 1998 when polling percentage in the two constituencies was 53.92% and 63.87% respectively.
Farrukhabad with substantial Muslim population has seen multi-cornered contests with Congress's Salman Khurshid winning in 1991 and 2009, SP in 1999 and 2004 and BJP in 1996 and 1998.
Having Brahmins and most backward classes in large numbers, Akbarpur (known as Bilhaur before 2009 delimitation) has been witnessing keen contest between BJP and BSP with the former winning four times from 1991 to 1999 and BSP in 2004 and 2007 bypolls. Congress pulled up a surprise in 2009.
Fatehpur Sikri constituency was created in 2009 after delimitation and was won by the BSP. It has fielded its sitting MP Seema Upadhayaya again.
Voter turnout
Hathras 57.20 %
Mathura 63.80 %
Agra 59.80 %
Fatehpur Sikri 61.27 %
Firozabad 66.00 %
Mainpuri 60.80 %
Etah 59.80 %
Hardoi 56.90 %
Farrukhabad 59.60 %
Etawah 56.30 %
Kannauj 63.48 %
Akbarpur 56.54 %