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[Star Wars]

twiterratis saying this is normal for a Muslim Dominated Belt , so nothing to worry about ...

 

[HariPrasad]

Noon Analysis of 24th April by Dr. Praveen Patil: Stunning picture of 24th April (2PM Exitpoll)
Posted : 8:07 am, April 24, 2014 by admin

This is the most crucial phase of the 2014 election which will likely decide the exact strength of the NDA-BJP and also probably give us an idea about the nature of the coalition that may come to power on 16th May. The first few phases were relatively easy for the BJP as it was fighting in strength areas in all the major states. In UP the first two phases of western region voted overwhelmingly for BJP as a result of major polarization which was so strong that even Dalits who are traditional Mayawati voters chose BJP in sufficiently large numbers to send alarm bells in the BSP camp. Similarly, in Bihar, in the dozen odd seats that went to polls in the first two phases, BJP enjoyed a clear edge over its rivals, so much so that even a substantial chunk of Muslims voted for BJP.

In Vidharbha, Marathwada and Western Maharashtra (Sugar belt), BJP-SS did surprisingly well to put even local bigwigs of NCP and Congress in trouble – Maharashtra watchers would know that no matter what the overall trends of any elections, there are local Maratha and non-Maratha chieftains who never lose elections because of huge cooperative networks and tacit understanding with opposition, but this time defying all odds people have probably voted for BJP-SS. Even in Karnataka, a state that Congress should have overwhelmed, BJP has done surprisingly well and may even end up topping the list.

It is in this backdrop that today’s polls are being held wherein BJP’s karyakartas must be already super charged and there might be a sense of gloom among the foot soldiers of the opposition ranks. Yet, BJP stands in that typical zone where complacency begins to set in. Also at this crucial juncture, every state that is going to polls today has a certain degree of resistance to the BJP’s juggernaut.

In UP’s 11 seats this is the OBC belt where Mulayam’s SP has the strongest presence – Mulayam (Mainpuri), son Abhishek (Firozabad) and daughter in law Dimple Yadav (Kannauj) have all won from this region which should give us an idea as to the strength of SP here. In Bihar’s 7 seats, there is considerable amount of local-level anti-incumbency against some of the sitting MPs whilst BJP has given tickets to 5 sitting MPs. There is also a great deal of polarization among the Muslim voters in this phase unlike the earlier phases of Bihar – so much so that JDU’s Muslim candidate withdrew from the contest in Kishanganj to defeat BJP. In Maharashtra too, the Konkan belt that is going to polls today mostly is seen as the weak link in the BJP-SS story of 2014.

Is there a dip in the Modi wave’s strength as per early trends? This should tell us whether all the concerns in the run-up to today’s polls were accurate or was it just another media myth created in order to simply give some last minute feel-good reporting from ground by the secular-socialists.

UP



There seems to be a definite fight between BJP and SP here, as Yadavs and Muslims are consolidating behind SP, while upper castes are consolidating BJP. The Other OBCs will be the key here, but again there seems to be a split in the other OBC vote as Lodhs are heavily consolidating behind BJP as nearly 60% have voted for the party, but Kurmis are split in 30:45 between BJP and SP. One interesting feature of this round in UP is that Brahmins are also totally consolidating behind BJP unlike the first two phases where the Brahmin vote was getting split. For instance, from about 79 data points for Brahmins till noon, about 51 had voted for the BJP. The Thakur consolidation is as strong as the past two phases.

Bihar



Seemanchal is proving to be a big roadblock for the BJP juggernaut as there is a very tight race between BJP+ and Congress-RJD. Here there are some surprises in this round of polling at least till now; Muslims are solidly consolidating behind Congress-RJD unlike the first two phases when BJP+ got some amounts of Muslim vote. The Yadav vote is also getting surprisingly split, which may be a ray of hope for the BJP, for if there was Yadav consolidation also behind Lalu Prasad Yadav, then it would have been even more tough going for the BJP. The upper castes are voting about 55%+ in favour of the BJP, which is not exactly overwhelming, so some of the impact of overt Dalit and OBC outreach of BJP is probably showing in this phase. But the silver lining for BJP is that substantial number of Dalits are voting for the party.



Tamil Nadu

Early indications are showing that DMK could actually emerge as a surprise player in the next government. Has the Amma strategy backfired? We cannot say for sure as of now as we are still getting some key caste based data points. There seems to be definite surge in few urban pockets of Tamil Nadu for DMK. The Vanniyar consolidation behind PMK and the extent of Goundar/Nadar consolidation behind NDA is not yet fully known at this point of time, which will be clearer in about 2 hours by our next report. Tamil Nadu is probably going to be another big surprise of 24th!

[Next report in about 2 hours will be crucial which will give us more depth, especially in Mumbai/Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu along with the heartland]

It is neck and neck BJP Sp and BJP RJD. Is the Namo wave loosing its shine?

 

[Star Wars]

lol someone asked Nandan NIkakeni , what job would you give Rahul Gandhi in Infosys , He left without saying anything

 

[SarthakGanguly]

Voted for Modi

 

[Star Wars]

It is neck and neck BJP Sp and BJP RJD. Is the Namo wave loosing its shine?

AM surprised its neck and neck as its being polled in Muslim dominated area

 

[Tridibans]

Seven members of my family.... all from Mumbai North Central
Abki baar Modi Sarkaar

 

[CorporateAffairs]

It is neck and neck BJP Sp and BJP RJD. Is the Namo wave loosing its shine?

These seats belong to Non-BJP parties.
In addition muslim dominated seats.

Yes, you gotta be surprised as BJP is competing with muslim parties such as Cong, RJD, SP.

 

[HariPrasad]

AM surprised its neck and neck as its being polled in Muslim dominated area

ok

 

[CorporateAffairs]

Seven members of my family.... all from Mumbai North Central
Abki baar Modi Sarkaar

Buddy could you plz give us a mood of the polling booth and your locality.

 

[SarthakGanguly]

Correct assessment. These areas were supposed to be walkovers for the 'Third Front'.

AM surprised its neck and neck as its being polled in Muslim dominated area

 

[HariPrasad]

These seats belong to Non-BJP parties.
In addition muslim dominated seats.

Yes, you gotta be surprised as BJP is competing with muslim parties such as Cong, RJD, SP.

Than it is fine.

 

[Star Wars]

Correct assessment. These areas were supposed to be walkovers for the 'Third Front'.

IF BJP manages to get those seats it will be a massive victory

 

[Parul]

Varanasi is kesariya today..

 

[GreenFoe]

It is neck and neck BJP Sp and BJP RJD. Is the Namo wave loosing its shine?

Looks like a seemanchal trend & not whole bihar ,predicted by pravin patil before polls .


Both areas(UP and Bihar sections) today polled are historically weak for BJP,demographic doesnt suit .

 

[Tridibans]

Buddy could you plz give us a mood of the polling booth and your locality.

Well the sitting MP Priya Dutt is a big shot here as there are large pockets of slums/ minorities in Kurla/ Bandra East and Parle area. But also, with the absence of MNS, Poonam Mahajan has a good chance to topple Dutt. Also, VilePatrle/ Santacruz belt has a huge Gujarati / Marathi (SS supporters) population who are voting en-masse to BJP.