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Indian Media: The great game in the Middle East: Why the Pakistan-Saudi relationship is going off the rails

Why India is scavenging for the leftovers left by Pakistan in decades of good relations with Saudia...

And Pakistan has aligned itself with the emerging China, and on the right side of the history, and along with Turkey, Russia, Iran too..

India is like 30 years late to align itself with US, the declining super power, leaving the Russia in the lurch, lost a more dependable partner.


Angered by Indian belligerence, Islamabad wants Muslims countries to do more in highlighting the plight of Kashmiri Muslims. Experts say, however, its own response is lacking.
August 5 was a tense day in the Indian subcontinent. Amid the chants of Hindu religious slogans, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid the foundation stone for a temple at a disputed holy site in the northern Ayodhya city.

In video footage and photographs, Modi was seen pressing his forehead to the ground and performing religious rites during the ceremony. The temple is being built atop a site where the 16th century Babri Masjid (mosque) once stood.

Hindu extremists had demolished the mosque in 1992, sparking communal riots in which hundreds of people - mostly Muslims - were killed. For years, Indian Muslims fought a legal battle to rebuild it. Last year, an Indian court handed it over to the Hindus.

It is not just the temple, named Ram, that has angered the Muslims. The inauguration took place on the first anniversary of the abrogation of Indian administered Kashmir’s nominal autonomy.

The scenic Himalyan region of Kashmir is claimed by both India and Pakistan, which the latter also partly controls.

However, India-administered Kashmir is the only Muslim-majority state in the country of 1.2 billion people. As well as this, Kashmiri Muslims fear Modi’s ruling Hindu natiionalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is trying to alter demographics by turning Muslims into a minority.

“Basically, with the events coinciding, India is trying to say it doesn’t fear anyone anymore,” says Dr Shaista Tabassum, a Karachi-based international relations expert. “This is happening at a time when Pakistan is seriously lacking in its response. I’m not even sure if we even have a concrete policy to deal with the Kashmir issue.”


A brotherhood no more

In this context, it came as a surprise when on the same day, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, expressed frustration over the response of the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) and Saudi Arabia on the human rights violations in IAK.

“I am once again respectfully telling OIC that a meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers is our expectation. If you cannot convene it, then I’ll be compelled to ask Prime Minister Imran Khan to call a meeting of the Islamic countries that are ready to stand with us on the issue of Kashmir and support the oppressed Kashmiris,” he said in Urdu on a TV talk show.

When the show’s host asked if that meant a move forward, except without Saudi Arabia, Qureshi said Islamabad will proceed “with or without” its oil-rich Arab backer.

The next day, Pakistan’s foreign office reaffirmed the minister's statement, saying it reflects the “aspirations” of Pakistani people.

Pakistan has for months pushed the 57-member grouping, based in the Saudi city of Jeddah, to call a meeting of top Muslim diplomats. The move, though, has been blocked by Saudi Arabia.

Qureshi’s comment coincided with news that Pakistan has prematurely repaid a $1 billion loan to Riyadh, something that has given billions of dollars in loans to Islamabad to boost its foreign currency reserves and avert a balance of payments crisis.

“It’s certainly possible that Pakistan will participate in a meeting about Kashmir outside of the OIC framework,” says Rupert Stone, a Middle East analyst, adding that a forum of Muslim leaders that met in Malaysia last year can be an option.

In December 2019, Imran Khan faced embarrassment as he backed out of a meeting of Muslim leaders in Kuala Lumpur under Saudi pressure.

That summit was attended by leaders from Iran, Malaysia, Qatar and Turkey - these are countries that have openly come out in support of Pakistan on the Kashmir issue.

At the same time, the Saudis and Emiratis have reinforced economic and diplomatic ties with Modi’s government.

The Saudis gave a muted response when Modi’s government changed the status of Kashmir last year, and the UAE brushed it under the carpet, saying it was India’s “internal matter”.

Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Zayed Al Nahyan conferred the highest civilian award to Modi who had just days earlier unilaterally decided to strip disputed Kashmir its special status and enforced a communications lockdown.

Indian administered Kashmir was deserted on the first anniversary of the abrogation of the region's nominal autonomy by New Delhi.
Indian administered Kashmir was deserted on the first anniversary of the abrogation of the region's nominal autonomy by New Delhi. (AP)
“The Kuala Lumpur summit seemingly pressured the OIC into taking a more proactive stance on Kashmir, showing it is a useful mechanism for raising the issue,” says Stone.

Experts say, however, that Pakistan would ultimately end up fighting for Kashmir itself.

On its own

This week Imran Khan also unveiled a new ‘political map’ of Pakistan. The new map identifies IAK as disputed territory and states that a decision on the final status of the region will be decided under resolutions of the UN Security Council.

International relations expert, Tabassum, wonders why it took Islamabad an entire year to conjure up a map which clearly delineates its boundaries.

“Imran Khan could have shown it to the world when he spoke at the UN General Assembly last year.”

India has successfully mobilised international opinion against Kashmiris who are fighting for their right to self determination, she says. “Anything that Pakistan does is now painted as cross-border terrorism.”

Islamabad has historically maintained that militancy in Indian-controlled Kashmir is an expression of frustration on part of the locals who have for decades aspired to be part of Pakistan.

Khalid Rahman, the executive president of Islamabad-based think tank, the Institute of Policy Studies, says Pakistan must be a “bit more aggressive” on its Kashmir stance.

“Pakistan has a very strong case as Kashmiris themselves are not ready to accept Indian rule. We should be blatant in telling the world that all the options are on the table,” he says, adding that over the years Pakistan has invested heavily in its armed forces.

“Diplomatic nuance on one side but when Indian leadership is threatening you at the highest level, when it's violating the borders and when it's a matter of survival, talk alone will not solve the problem.”
 
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After getting a snub from Saudi Arabia that Pakistan should not hijack the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) forum, Pakistan foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi relented to a mention of Jammu & Kashmir in the documents adopted at the OIC foreign ministers’ meeting held in Niger in the last week of November.


Earlier, Qureshi had sought a special meeting of OIC foreign ministers to discuss the Kashmir issue, failing which he had threatened that Pakistan would itself convene a meeting of the Islamic countries outside the OIC framework. The Saudi reaction was forthright as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) recalled a loan of $3 billion given earlier to Pakistan, stopped delivery of oil on deferred loan and disallowed flights from Pakistan (while allowing them from 25 other nations).


How did the traditional friendship between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia go so wrong suddenly? The answer lies in Pakistan’s failure to read the new dynamics reshaping Middle East politics – with uglier contestation between Iran, Turkey and Malaysia on one side and Saudi Arabia and Israel on the other.


Effective power in Saudi Arabia has passed into the hands of MBS who considers Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei as “worse than Hitler” and Iran his implacable foe, determined to undermine Saudi influence and to rule over the entire Islamic world.


The Trump administration’s policy to apply “maximum pressure” on Iran has failed to alter Iran’s behaviour. Using its network of proxies in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon, Iran went on to attack its adversaries – recall the attack on two Saudi oil facilities in September 2019 – gaining considerable influence in these countries. It utilised US termination of the nuclear deal by shortening the ‘breakout period’ (time required to move to nuclear weapons stage) from about a year earlier to three months.


The US’s placid reaction to the attack on its oil facilities made it clear to Saudi Arabia that it needed more external support to defend itself. MBS started relying more and more on Israel for assistance in counterterrorism, training of its security personnel and advanced technologies.


Israel not only shares Saudi’s implacable hostility towards Iran but has shown determination to act against her repeatedly – more recently in the reported assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh on November 27, after it got convinced that Iran had come too close to acquiring nuclear weapon capability.


The US has encouraged this putative alliance as it helps in retaining Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries in her sphere of influence, against the advances being made by China and Russia to augment their reach in the region. President-elect Joe Biden is unlikely to reverse Trump’s major policies, except exploring if a nuclear deal could be revived with pushback of Iran’s destabilising behaviour.


Unlike his father, MBS attaches low priority to the return of disputed lands from Israel to Palestine and backs the solution proposed by President Trump. Today, many Arab states such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and others attach primacy to curbing Iran’s growing influence in the region, rather than resolving the Palestinian conflict.


Pakistan views the emerging politics in the Middle East mainly through the prism of Kashmir. It tends to lean more on the side of Iran, Turkey and Malaysia which have openly supported her against Saudi Arabia, UAE and others which are taking a more balanced stand, appreciating India’s sensitivities. India will not only be the biggest buyer of Saudi crude in future (given China’s slowing economy and declining population) but can help Saudi Arabia, UAE and others greatly (along with Israel and the US) in achieving their vision of rapid economic development.


History suggests that countries which have adopted moderate and progressive outlook have made faster progress than those which have taken an authoritarian and insular turn. It is unfortunate that Pakistan continues to stagnate in the latter category. India will have to carefully assess the strategic impact of a hostile Pakistan relying increasingly on an intransigent China in creating new infrastructure linkages through the illegally occupied Gilgit-Baltistan region with the Central Asian and Gulf states in future.

Yogesh Gupta

The writer is a former Indian ambassador.



Lo ji, new bhakt.
Now keeping the words away, lets come to the realties.

4 million Pakistanis in Saudi Arabia
Thousands of military personnel, advisors and trainers on ground
Saudi need for Pakistan to deploy nukes in Saudi Arabia in case Iran comes up with a nuclear weapon.

Indians should honestly shut up, they get their news from low end junkie wion aunties.
 
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Pakistan and India are irrelevant to the ME. I don't see the point of this article.
Pakistan is relevant to Saudi Arabia at least, they have long explored the option of making Pakistan deploy its nukes in Saudi Arabia in case Iran develops one.
India is a no-one, just sells cheap labor the sheikhs, nothing much.
 
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Pakistan is relevant to Saudi Arabia at least, they have long explored the option of making Pakistan deploy its nukes in Saudi Arabia in case Iran develops one.
India is a no-one, just sells cheap labor the sheikhs, nothing much.
That's not credible. They have US bases as deterrence.
 
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That's not credible. They have US bases as deterrence.
The US is moving out, don't you remember what happened? They are going to buy their own weapons and the US would leave, this is what Trump himself said. Plus, the US doesn't have its nukes in Saudi Arabia, nor will they ever have, meanwhile, back in the 90s the option of Pakistan deploying its nukes in Saudi Arabia was extensively discussed, but threats against the Saudis dissolved.
 
. . .
After getting a snub from Saudi Arabia that Pakistan should not hijack the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) forum, Pakistan foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi relented to a mention of Jammu & Kashmir in the documents adopted at the OIC foreign ministers’ meeting held in Niger in the last week of November.


Earlier, Qureshi had sought a special meeting of OIC foreign ministers to discuss the Kashmir issue, failing which he had threatened that Pakistan would itself convene a meeting of the Islamic countries outside the OIC framework. The Saudi reaction was forthright as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) recalled a loan of $3 billion given earlier to Pakistan, stopped delivery of oil on deferred loan and disallowed flights from Pakistan (while allowing them from 25 other nations).


How did the traditional friendship between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia go so wrong suddenly? The answer lies in Pakistan’s failure to read the new dynamics reshaping Middle East politics – with uglier contestation between Iran, Turkey and Malaysia on one side and Saudi Arabia and Israel on the other.


Effective power in Saudi Arabia has passed into the hands of MBS who considers Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei as “worse than Hitler” and Iran his implacable foe, determined to undermine Saudi influence and to rule over the entire Islamic world.


The Trump administration’s policy to apply “maximum pressure” on Iran has failed to alter Iran’s behaviour. Using its network of proxies in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon, Iran went on to attack its adversaries – recall the attack on two Saudi oil facilities in September 2019 – gaining considerable influence in these countries. It utilised US termination of the nuclear deal by shortening the ‘breakout period’ (time required to move to nuclear weapons stage) from about a year earlier to three months.


The US’s placid reaction to the attack on its oil facilities made it clear to Saudi Arabia that it needed more external support to defend itself. MBS started relying more and more on Israel for assistance in counterterrorism, training of its security personnel and advanced technologies.


Israel not only shares Saudi’s implacable hostility towards Iran but has shown determination to act against her repeatedly – more recently in the reported assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh on November 27, after it got convinced that Iran had come too close to acquiring nuclear weapon capability.


The US has encouraged this putative alliance as it helps in retaining Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries in her sphere of influence, against the advances being made by China and Russia to augment their reach in the region. President-elect Joe Biden is unlikely to reverse Trump’s major policies, except exploring if a nuclear deal could be revived with pushback of Iran’s destabilising behaviour.


Unlike his father, MBS attaches low priority to the return of disputed lands from Israel to Palestine and backs the solution proposed by President Trump. Today, many Arab states such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and others attach primacy to curbing Iran’s growing influence in the region, rather than resolving the Palestinian conflict.


Pakistan views the emerging politics in the Middle East mainly through the prism of Kashmir. It tends to lean more on the side of Iran, Turkey and Malaysia which have openly supported her against Saudi Arabia, UAE and others which are taking a more balanced stand, appreciating India’s sensitivities. India will not only be the biggest buyer of Saudi crude in future (given China’s slowing economy and declining population) but can help Saudi Arabia, UAE and others greatly (along with Israel and the US) in achieving their vision of rapid economic development.


History suggests that countries which have adopted moderate and progressive outlook have made faster progress than those which have taken an authoritarian and insular turn. It is unfortunate that Pakistan continues to stagnate in the latter category. India will have to carefully assess the strategic impact of a hostile Pakistan relying increasingly on an intransigent China in creating new infrastructure linkages through the illegally occupied Gilgit-Baltistan region with the Central Asian and Gulf states in future.

Yogesh Gupta

The writer is a former Indian ambassador.



Wet dreams and mind farts of a has been ;)
Times of India....another fantasy...

Which galactic vedic shithouse do these people gather in and think of writing this crap and the posters.....get an effing life
India
 
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Would it have helped if I posted some prominent Pakistani commentator also lamenting things going south between the two ? There's plenty out there.

Post every whatsapp piece you find
 
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Like i said before, all indians (including OP) deserve to be beaten with iron rods, and left to die.
 
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The relationship between Pak and Arabia remain positive and fruitful -

Indians have no foothold there and never will.
 
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Pakistan is relevant to Saudi Arabia at least, they have long explored the option of making Pakistan deploy its nukes in Saudi Arabia in case Iran develops one.
India is a no-one, just sells cheap labor the sheikhs, nothing much.

last time Saudis needed help. It was in 1990. we know who did the fighting ?
 
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"History suggests that countries which have adopted moderate and progressive outlook have made faster progress than those which have taken an authoritarian and insular turn. It is unfortunate that Pakistan continues to stagnate in the latter category. India will have to carefully assess the strategic impact of a hostile Pakistan relying increasingly on an intransigent China in creating new infrastructure linkages through the illegally occupied Gilgit-Baltistan region with the Central Asian and Gulf states in future."

Ex-ambassador Gupta should at least proof read his brain fahrts for grammar and flow, prior to actually committing them to paper.
 
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