Indian General Elections - 2014
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Big thumbs down for Manmohan, UPA if polls held now: Survey
KOLKATA: The Congress-led UPA 2, which will complete four years in office on Wednesday, would fare badly if general elections were to be held now, with inflation, unbridled corruption and economic decline playing a major role, said a survey.
The ABP Ananda- Nielsen survey conducted across 21 states and Union territories says the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) would suffer badly in several states of the country including West Bengal, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led led National Democratic Alliance would gain.
According to the survey, the UPA's kitty would come down to just 136 from the current 262 while the NDA's share would swell to 206 from the current 158.
People have also given a thumbs down to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh with only 7 percent of them wanting see him in the top post for the third time.
BJP leader and Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi is the "favourite" with as many as 48 percent of the surveyed wanting him to be the prime minister. Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi comes a distant second with 18 percent.
In West Bengal, the Congress would get nine Lok Sabha seats and the Trinamool 14 in case the former allies contested independently with the Left Front getting 18 seats. However, in case of a Congress-Trinamool alliance, they would bag 24 seats with the Left getting 17.
In Uttar Pradesh, Congress's kitty would come down to six from the current 21 while the ruling Samajwadi Party would be the leaders with 24 seats. The biggest gainer though would be the BJP which will see its seat count swell to 23 from the current 10.
The scenario in Maharastra would also be similar with the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party coalition's share coming down to 16 seats from the 25 they now have.
In Bihar, the ruling BJP and Nitish Kumar led Janata Dal United alliance would continue to be the leaders with 34 seats while the Congress would manage just three seats.
The survey also says the "charisma" of Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit who was voted to power third time in arrow would not work this time.
Big thumbs down for Manmohan, UPA if polls held now: Survey - The Times of India
KOLKATA: The Congress-led UPA 2, which will complete four years in office on Wednesday, would fare badly if general elections were to be held now, with inflation, unbridled corruption and economic decline playing a major role, said a survey.
The ABP Ananda- Nielsen survey conducted across 21 states and Union territories says the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) would suffer badly in several states of the country including West Bengal, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led led National Democratic Alliance would gain.
According to the survey, the UPA's kitty would come down to just 136 from the current 262 while the NDA's share would swell to 206 from the current 158.
People have also given a thumbs down to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh with only 7 percent of them wanting see him in the top post for the third time.
BJP leader and Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi is the "favourite" with as many as 48 percent of the surveyed wanting him to be the prime minister. Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi comes a distant second with 18 percent.
In West Bengal, the Congress would get nine Lok Sabha seats and the Trinamool 14 in case the former allies contested independently with the Left Front getting 18 seats. However, in case of a Congress-Trinamool alliance, they would bag 24 seats with the Left getting 17.
In Uttar Pradesh, Congress's kitty would come down to six from the current 21 while the ruling Samajwadi Party would be the leaders with 24 seats. The biggest gainer though would be the BJP which will see its seat count swell to 23 from the current 10.
The scenario in Maharastra would also be similar with the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party coalition's share coming down to 16 seats from the 25 they now have.
In Bihar, the ruling BJP and Nitish Kumar led Janata Dal United alliance would continue to be the leaders with 34 seats while the Congress would manage just three seats.
The survey also says the "charisma" of Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit who was voted to power third time in arrow would not work this time.
Big thumbs down for Manmohan, UPA if polls held now: Survey - The Times of India
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SAD-BJP sweep Punjab rural polls
The ruling SAD-BJP alliance on Tuesday swept the zila parishad and panchayat samiti elections in Punjab, registering a win in majority of the seats.
The alliance completely routed the Congress in Majha though in Malwa and Doaba, the Congress managed to make its presence felt. The PPP and the Left parties won a handful of seats.
The counting of ballot paper votes was continuing at some places till the filing of this report. According to available results, out of the total 331 ZP zones falling in 22 zila parishads, the SAD-BJP won 199 (182 SAD, 17 BJP) seats. The Congress won 15, PPP two and Independent two.
Of the total 2,732 panchayat samiti seats in 146 panchayat blocks, out of the declared seats SAD-BJP won 1,536 seats, Congress 232, BSP 12, PPP 16, CPI six, and others 49.
SAD president and Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal termed his party's victory as the "death of Congress as a political party in Punjab and a "knock-out in the very first round for the new PPCC president Partap Singh Bajwa".
Talking to The Indian Express Sukhbir Singh Badal said the verdict given by the people of rural Punjab was encouraging. "This shows that we are on the right track and we have lived up to the expectations of the people," he said.
Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal said this was a befitting reply to the negative politics played by Bajwa.
The Congress chief, on the other hand, termed the results a "murder of democracy".
The Congress had joined hands with the PPP and BSP for these elections. While Bajwa and senior party leaders had extensively campaigned across the state, the Badals had not canvassed at all. The Congress lost heavily to SAD in Majha but put up a brave fight in Doaba, especially in Jalandhar, Hoshiarpur and Kapurthala.
The Congress witnessed its revival in Malwa at the block samiti level. In Ludhiana, Patiala and Sangrur, the Congress has given the Akalis something to worry about. Malwa is the traditional Akali stronghold and in the last Assembly elections Malwa had voted for the Akalis.
In Jalalabad, Sukhbir's constituency, of the total 24 panchayat samit seats, SAD won 22 and the BJP two. In Lambi, the CM's constituency, SAD won all the 21 panchayat samiti seats. In Qadian, Bajwa's constituency, of the total 15 panchayat samitis, SAD won 12 and the Congress three.
The BJP has put up an impressive show in Gurdaspur. BJP state chief Kamal Sharma said his party had improved its performance and the results were a prelude to the routing of the Congress in the parliamentary polls.
- See more at: SAD-BJP sweep Punjab rural polls - Indian Express
The ruling SAD-BJP alliance on Tuesday swept the zila parishad and panchayat samiti elections in Punjab, registering a win in majority of the seats.
The alliance completely routed the Congress in Majha though in Malwa and Doaba, the Congress managed to make its presence felt. The PPP and the Left parties won a handful of seats.
The counting of ballot paper votes was continuing at some places till the filing of this report. According to available results, out of the total 331 ZP zones falling in 22 zila parishads, the SAD-BJP won 199 (182 SAD, 17 BJP) seats. The Congress won 15, PPP two and Independent two.
Of the total 2,732 panchayat samiti seats in 146 panchayat blocks, out of the declared seats SAD-BJP won 1,536 seats, Congress 232, BSP 12, PPP 16, CPI six, and others 49.
SAD president and Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal termed his party's victory as the "death of Congress as a political party in Punjab and a "knock-out in the very first round for the new PPCC president Partap Singh Bajwa".
Talking to The Indian Express Sukhbir Singh Badal said the verdict given by the people of rural Punjab was encouraging. "This shows that we are on the right track and we have lived up to the expectations of the people," he said.
Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal said this was a befitting reply to the negative politics played by Bajwa.
The Congress chief, on the other hand, termed the results a "murder of democracy".
The Congress had joined hands with the PPP and BSP for these elections. While Bajwa and senior party leaders had extensively campaigned across the state, the Badals had not canvassed at all. The Congress lost heavily to SAD in Majha but put up a brave fight in Doaba, especially in Jalandhar, Hoshiarpur and Kapurthala.
The Congress witnessed its revival in Malwa at the block samiti level. In Ludhiana, Patiala and Sangrur, the Congress has given the Akalis something to worry about. Malwa is the traditional Akali stronghold and in the last Assembly elections Malwa had voted for the Akalis.
In Jalalabad, Sukhbir's constituency, of the total 24 panchayat samit seats, SAD won 22 and the BJP two. In Lambi, the CM's constituency, SAD won all the 21 panchayat samiti seats. In Qadian, Bajwa's constituency, of the total 15 panchayat samitis, SAD won 12 and the Congress three.
The BJP has put up an impressive show in Gurdaspur. BJP state chief Kamal Sharma said his party had improved its performance and the results were a prelude to the routing of the Congress in the parliamentary polls.
- See more at: SAD-BJP sweep Punjab rural polls - Indian Express
Pretty slim, Electronic Voting Machine limits the options.
Indian voting machines - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Ayush
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E.V.M limits the chance..
surya kiran
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Very slim. There is a specific reason behind this. When elections are going to be held, the control of the administration is passed over to the Election Commission (EC). This typically means, the local bureaucrats or local police can be over-ruled by the EC. For e.g Para-military or police can be moved from another state to manage the elections. This results in reduced ability of the local chaps to force stuff and rig things.
Also, the EC can order unsavoury elements to be taken into preventive custody before the elections. People can also be asked to deposit their guns at the nearest police station, if required. The locations also receive wide video surveillance. If there is any remote evidence of rigging, the election can be declared void for that constituency.
Three polls, one message: No alternative to Modi for BJP
Three opinion polls this week on the national political mood have three simple messages embedded in them – two for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and another for the Congress.
The polls – one by AC Nielsen for ABP News, another by C-Voter for Headlines Today, and a third by GFK for CNN-IBN – clearly indicate that the Congress is slipping, and slipping badly, in urban India, and possibly all over the country too. It is likely to crash to one of its worst defeats in history. The message: it is best to soldier on till 2014, since early elections means crushing defeat.
But the more important messaging is for the BJP, which thinks it will reap the growing anti-incumbency vote and ride to power in 2014. Far from it. For the party’s warring non-entities – and that means the entire central leadership – the message is this: despite the Congress’ best efforts to lose, the BJP won’t be able to form the next government. Only Narendra Modi can deliver them within striking distance of power in Delhi.
AP
Modi’s semi-polarising nature tends to have two kinds of impact: one helps the BJP, and another helps its strongest local rival – due to tactical voting by Muslims. AP
After much huffing and puffing, the NDA (without projecting Modi) may reach 206, says ABP News, assuming polls were held in May this year. C-Voter gives the NDA even less – 179 seats, and the BJP’s own tally is a measly 137, despite a dramatic fall in the Congress’ seat count by nearly 90 from 206 in 2009 to 116.
This is a clear slap in the face for the BJP’s central leadership, which has been fighting an internecine battle and doing its best to show a disunited face to the electorate. The C-Voter poll suggests that the people are unimpressed by the BJP despite disenchantment with the Congress. If the BJP thinks it can win by riding the anti-Congress vote, it has another thought coming: the anti-incumbency vote is heading towards the regional parties.
C-Voter says that between them, the Congress and the BJP will win less than half the seats – just 253 – and this it is a non-Congress, non-BJP front that will form the government. But given the internal antipathies of this motley crowd – where SP goes, Mayawati won’t, where TMC goes, the Left Front won’t – this regional front may need outside Congress support to survive even for a year or two.
However, the most important part of all the polls is the Narendra Modi factor. Every one of the surveys clearly indicates that Modi is a winner for the BJP – and the party would be making a big mistake by either not projecting anyone or projecting the wrong leader in 2014.
While the CNN-IBN poll shows the urban voter as clearly in favour of Modi as the Prime Ministerial candidate, with 38 percent preferring him over 13 percent and 14 percent for Manmohan Singh and Rahul Gandhi, LK Advani figures with a low backing of 5 percent. The man who built the BJP in the 1980s and 1990s is clearly not the man the people will back this time. Some 60 percent favoured Modi as the BJP’s best hope, while 10 percent backed Advani. Advani’s time is over.
The ABP News-AC Nielsen poll has something similar to report in urban areas. Modi turns out to be a clear favourite with 36 percent backing him versus 13 percent for Rahul Gandhi, and 12 percent for Manmohan Singh. Once again the message is the urban voter will not be amused if the BJP squanders its chances by encouraging its factions to play their games and damage the party’s chances in 2014.
But it is the C-Voter poll that is the most interesting: it actually tries to calculate the difference between what the BJP-led NDA would achieve if Modi were projected as the PM candidate and if he were not.
Without Modi, the NDA – with Nitish Kumar in tow – gets all of 179, and the BJP 137. With Modi, the BJP-led NDA takes a giant leap both in vote share and seat count. While NDA’s vote share rises from 31 percent to 36 percent – so 5 percent is the Modi vote share effect – the seat count goes up to 220, just 52 short of majority. This means a 41-seat advantage due to Modi.
The big question is: are these numbers believable? Skeptics will also point out that Modi did not make much of a difference in Karnataka, where the BJP was routed.
The answer to the skeptics is simple: Karnataka was an election run wholly on local factors, and Modi did not stake his reputation on the campaign. A national election with a clear leader is a completely different proposition – and here Modi counts.
The figures look credible because the Modi effect not only benefits the BJP, but also Congress and Samajwadi Party. The losers are the other regional parties, due to tactical voting by the minorities.
How? The C-Voter survey, which is based on a long-term tracking system and covers both urban and rural constituencies, asked voters whether they would vote for BJP if Modi was its leader and if they would still do so if he were not its leader.
Modi’s semi-polarising nature tends to have two kinds of impact: one helps the BJP, and another helps its strongest local rival – due to tactical voting by Muslims.
The big impact is in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where the Modi bandwagon raises the BJP seat share from 10 in 2009 to 29 even while whittling down the BSP and Congress. The Samajwadi Party, which expects a consolidation of the Muslim vote, also gains, with its seats rising from 23 in 2009 to 30.
Bihar is the biggest surprise: given Nitish Kumar’s known antipathy to Modi, any projection of Modi could result in Kumar breaking away from the NDA, but this actually benefits the BJP. Thanks to a reverse consolidation of upper caste and some lower OBC votes, the BJP’s seats go up from 12 in 2009 to 18, while Nitish Kumar actually loses seats – from 20 to nine. Lalu Prasad also gains, from four to seven, but nothing to write home about.
The message for Nitish Kumar is clear: there is no gain in continuing with Modi-bashing.
It is now very clear that the BJP has no hope of making it without Modi. He is Gulliver in BJP’s Lilliput.
It is time the BJP bit the bullet and decided on him as their clear Prime Ministerial candidate if they want to win in 2014 – or even later this year.
If the Grand Old Man of BJP wants to do his last great act of political wisdom, LK Advani should facilitate Modi’s elevation and ensure that the rest of the central leadership’s middling leaders pipe down and work to ensure the party’s victory.
This is the best thing Advani can do for the party. To Modi there is no alternative.
Three opinion polls this week on the national political mood have three simple messages embedded in them – two for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and another for the Congress.
The polls – one by AC Nielsen for ABP News, another by C-Voter for Headlines Today, and a third by GFK for CNN-IBN – clearly indicate that the Congress is slipping, and slipping badly, in urban India, and possibly all over the country too. It is likely to crash to one of its worst defeats in history. The message: it is best to soldier on till 2014, since early elections means crushing defeat.
But the more important messaging is for the BJP, which thinks it will reap the growing anti-incumbency vote and ride to power in 2014. Far from it. For the party’s warring non-entities – and that means the entire central leadership – the message is this: despite the Congress’ best efforts to lose, the BJP won’t be able to form the next government. Only Narendra Modi can deliver them within striking distance of power in Delhi.
AP
Modi’s semi-polarising nature tends to have two kinds of impact: one helps the BJP, and another helps its strongest local rival – due to tactical voting by Muslims. AP
After much huffing and puffing, the NDA (without projecting Modi) may reach 206, says ABP News, assuming polls were held in May this year. C-Voter gives the NDA even less – 179 seats, and the BJP’s own tally is a measly 137, despite a dramatic fall in the Congress’ seat count by nearly 90 from 206 in 2009 to 116.
This is a clear slap in the face for the BJP’s central leadership, which has been fighting an internecine battle and doing its best to show a disunited face to the electorate. The C-Voter poll suggests that the people are unimpressed by the BJP despite disenchantment with the Congress. If the BJP thinks it can win by riding the anti-Congress vote, it has another thought coming: the anti-incumbency vote is heading towards the regional parties.
C-Voter says that between them, the Congress and the BJP will win less than half the seats – just 253 – and this it is a non-Congress, non-BJP front that will form the government. But given the internal antipathies of this motley crowd – where SP goes, Mayawati won’t, where TMC goes, the Left Front won’t – this regional front may need outside Congress support to survive even for a year or two.
However, the most important part of all the polls is the Narendra Modi factor. Every one of the surveys clearly indicates that Modi is a winner for the BJP – and the party would be making a big mistake by either not projecting anyone or projecting the wrong leader in 2014.
While the CNN-IBN poll shows the urban voter as clearly in favour of Modi as the Prime Ministerial candidate, with 38 percent preferring him over 13 percent and 14 percent for Manmohan Singh and Rahul Gandhi, LK Advani figures with a low backing of 5 percent. The man who built the BJP in the 1980s and 1990s is clearly not the man the people will back this time. Some 60 percent favoured Modi as the BJP’s best hope, while 10 percent backed Advani. Advani’s time is over.
The ABP News-AC Nielsen poll has something similar to report in urban areas. Modi turns out to be a clear favourite with 36 percent backing him versus 13 percent for Rahul Gandhi, and 12 percent for Manmohan Singh. Once again the message is the urban voter will not be amused if the BJP squanders its chances by encouraging its factions to play their games and damage the party’s chances in 2014.
But it is the C-Voter poll that is the most interesting: it actually tries to calculate the difference between what the BJP-led NDA would achieve if Modi were projected as the PM candidate and if he were not.
Without Modi, the NDA – with Nitish Kumar in tow – gets all of 179, and the BJP 137. With Modi, the BJP-led NDA takes a giant leap both in vote share and seat count. While NDA’s vote share rises from 31 percent to 36 percent – so 5 percent is the Modi vote share effect – the seat count goes up to 220, just 52 short of majority. This means a 41-seat advantage due to Modi.
The big question is: are these numbers believable? Skeptics will also point out that Modi did not make much of a difference in Karnataka, where the BJP was routed.
The answer to the skeptics is simple: Karnataka was an election run wholly on local factors, and Modi did not stake his reputation on the campaign. A national election with a clear leader is a completely different proposition – and here Modi counts.
The figures look credible because the Modi effect not only benefits the BJP, but also Congress and Samajwadi Party. The losers are the other regional parties, due to tactical voting by the minorities.
How? The C-Voter survey, which is based on a long-term tracking system and covers both urban and rural constituencies, asked voters whether they would vote for BJP if Modi was its leader and if they would still do so if he were not its leader.
Modi’s semi-polarising nature tends to have two kinds of impact: one helps the BJP, and another helps its strongest local rival – due to tactical voting by Muslims.
The big impact is in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where the Modi bandwagon raises the BJP seat share from 10 in 2009 to 29 even while whittling down the BSP and Congress. The Samajwadi Party, which expects a consolidation of the Muslim vote, also gains, with its seats rising from 23 in 2009 to 30.
Bihar is the biggest surprise: given Nitish Kumar’s known antipathy to Modi, any projection of Modi could result in Kumar breaking away from the NDA, but this actually benefits the BJP. Thanks to a reverse consolidation of upper caste and some lower OBC votes, the BJP’s seats go up from 12 in 2009 to 18, while Nitish Kumar actually loses seats – from 20 to nine. Lalu Prasad also gains, from four to seven, but nothing to write home about.
The message for Nitish Kumar is clear: there is no gain in continuing with Modi-bashing.
It is now very clear that the BJP has no hope of making it without Modi. He is Gulliver in BJP’s Lilliput.
It is time the BJP bit the bullet and decided on him as their clear Prime Ministerial candidate if they want to win in 2014 – or even later this year.
If the Grand Old Man of BJP wants to do his last great act of political wisdom, LK Advani should facilitate Modi’s elevation and ensure that the rest of the central leadership’s middling leaders pipe down and work to ensure the party’s victory.
This is the best thing Advani can do for the party. To Modi there is no alternative.
It is very much clear that if BJP is not projecting Modi as a canidate, Congress will gain majority again. Although Cong is shown low at this point of time, but they will definitely announce some kind of policy and populist measures that will bring them to upward trajectories again...For example people like who was big fan of BJP, really do not see any other leader except Modi as any impact on public....So in the same way, people will think that rather than voting regional forces, they will vote for Congress again..
arp2041
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BJP's FIRST rally in Kashmir...............
bjp first big rally in kashmir -
@seiko @MST @kurup @Dillinger @ExtraOdinary @JanjaWeed
bjp first big rally in kashmir -
@seiko @MST @kurup @Dillinger @ExtraOdinary @JanjaWeed
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kurup
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What !!This is unbelievable
" इन लोगों ने सिर्फ भाजपा के हित में नारे लगाए, बल्कि नरेन्द्र मोदी को प्रधानमंत्री भी बनाए जाने की वकालत की। " ......
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arp2041
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What !!This is unbelievable
" इन लोगों ने सिर्फ भाजपा के हित में नारे लगाए, बल्कि नरेन्द्र मोदी को प्रधानमंत्री भी बनाए जाने की वकालत की। " ......
You can read Hindi?? I thought that was a Problem for you
BTW, did you notice, no other media source COVERED this story.
kurup
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You can read Hindi?? I thought that was a Problem for you
I can read , write and understand hindi but there are difficulties .
Nothing surprising .
ExtraOdinary
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