Indian fighting fantasy series (i.e. BS) regarding Balakot air duals.
- Thread starter Reichsmarschall
- Start date
ajpirzada
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Mar 4, 2008
- Messages
- 6,011
- Reaction score
- 11
- Country
- Location
couldnt get better...
Thorough Pro
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Aug 23, 2008
- Messages
- 13,232
- Reaction score
- -21
- Country
- Location
Every time she gets inseminated she thinks another indian has exploded or else how come his brahmin body parts ended up her "brain"
Its good for us that she is their defence minister
She further said that if none of the US-manufactured fighter jets of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) were missing then how come the part of AM-RAAM missile, which is used in F-16 was found in India.
Baseless, source-based': Defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman brushes off US magazine report on F-16
India
Updated Apr 07, 2019 | 08:02 IST | Times Now Digital
She said that if none of the US-manufactured fighter jets of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) were missing then how come the part of AM-RAAM missile, which is used in F-16 was found in India.
Nirmala Sitharaman rejects US magazine report on F-16 | Photo Credit: ANI
New Delhi: Defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman has rejected as “baseless” the US magazine report that claimed that none of Pakistan’s F-16s were missing and said that the article was “source-based”.
She further said that if none of the US-manufactured fighter jets of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) were missing then how come the part of AM-RAAM missile, which is used in F-16 was found in India.
Washington-based magazine Foreign Police reported on Thursday that the US defence personnel recently conducted a physical count of Pakistan’s F-16s and found all intact and none missing. The article also quoted unidentified defence officials as saying that America has not found any planes, supplied to Pakistan, missing from the inventory.
However, the US defence department, reportedly said that it was not aware that an investigation was conducted to find out whether Pakistan’s F-16 was shot down by Indian Air Force’s (IAF) fighter jet in February.
“The IAF gave proof on it with the electronic signature of F-16. Whoever has written it, it's baseless and source based. The part of AM-RAAM missile, which is used only with F-16, how was it found in India?,” Sitharaman was quoted as saying by news agency ANI.
India maintains that Pakistan’s F-16 was shot down by Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, who was flying a MiG 21 Bison of the Indian Air Force (IAF) in a dogfight on February 27.
Reacting to the Foreign Policy report, Pakistan's Prime Minister said that Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) attempt to win elections through whipping up war hysteria and false claims of downing a Pakistan F 16 has backfired.
"The truth always prevails and is always the best policy. BJP's attempt to win elections through whipping up war hysteria and false claims of downing a Pak F 16 has backfired with US Defence officials also confirming that no F16 was missing from Pakistan's fleet," he had said in a tweet on Saturday
Its good for us that she is their defence minister
She further said that if none of the US-manufactured fighter jets of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) were missing then how come the part of AM-RAAM missile, which is used in F-16 was found in India.
Baseless, source-based': Defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman brushes off US magazine report on F-16
India
Updated Apr 07, 2019 | 08:02 IST | Times Now Digital
She said that if none of the US-manufactured fighter jets of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) were missing then how come the part of AM-RAAM missile, which is used in F-16 was found in India.
Nirmala Sitharaman rejects US magazine report on F-16 | Photo Credit: ANI
New Delhi: Defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman has rejected as “baseless” the US magazine report that claimed that none of Pakistan’s F-16s were missing and said that the article was “source-based”.
She further said that if none of the US-manufactured fighter jets of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) were missing then how come the part of AM-RAAM missile, which is used in F-16 was found in India.
Washington-based magazine Foreign Police reported on Thursday that the US defence personnel recently conducted a physical count of Pakistan’s F-16s and found all intact and none missing. The article also quoted unidentified defence officials as saying that America has not found any planes, supplied to Pakistan, missing from the inventory.
However, the US defence department, reportedly said that it was not aware that an investigation was conducted to find out whether Pakistan’s F-16 was shot down by Indian Air Force’s (IAF) fighter jet in February.
“The IAF gave proof on it with the electronic signature of F-16. Whoever has written it, it's baseless and source based. The part of AM-RAAM missile, which is used only with F-16, how was it found in India?,” Sitharaman was quoted as saying by news agency ANI.
India maintains that Pakistan’s F-16 was shot down by Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, who was flying a MiG 21 Bison of the Indian Air Force (IAF) in a dogfight on February 27.
Reacting to the Foreign Policy report, Pakistan's Prime Minister said that Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) attempt to win elections through whipping up war hysteria and false claims of downing a Pakistan F 16 has backfired.
"The truth always prevails and is always the best policy. BJP's attempt to win elections through whipping up war hysteria and false claims of downing a Pak F 16 has backfired with US Defence officials also confirming that no F16 was missing from Pakistan's fleet," he had said in a tweet on Saturday
Mangus Ortus Novem
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Jun 7, 2008
- Messages
- 2,984
- Reaction score
- 186
- Country
- Location
Thorough Pro
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Aug 23, 2008
- Messages
- 13,232
- Reaction score
- -21
- Country
- Location
PurAzamBaHadaf
FULL MEMBER
- Joined
- Mar 2, 2019
- Messages
- 376
- Reaction score
- 0
- Country
- Location
No we wouldn't because the US and Israel know the ramifications of such things. Instead, I believe Pakistan made a deal and this we might never know about. However, Israel is a threat to Pakistan and the one evidence we had is of the missiles used in Balakot strikes which were manufactured by Israel.
Oh no, just wait. India will manage to conjure a story which will be even better.
alee92nawaz
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Sep 14, 2015
- Messages
- 2,067
- Reaction score
- -3
- Country
- Location
We used South African bombs for pur strikes so RSA is enemy of india? Sir pese de kay ap bhe lelo. JDAM SOW wagera
This still doesn't means they will send their pilots for bombing Pak
Sir in baton k ilawa koi credobcr fact wagera hy?
airmarshal
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Jul 28, 2010
- Messages
- 9,361
- Reaction score
- 11
- Country
- Location
Why is Pakistan not making public it shot down Su-30MKI?
PAF has released official March 23 patch with profile of Su-30 by why is not being made an official news?
PAF has released official March 23 patch with profile of Su-30 by why is not being made an official news?
Khafee
BANNED
- Joined
- Oct 9, 2015
- Messages
- 7,681
- Reaction score
- 63
- Country
- Location
God has seen it fit to punish you, and this is his instrument.God, this is just not fair, why do we have such neighbours?
Entertainment purpose?
You will need something stronger than bleach for this one.
Vortex
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Apr 17, 2008
- Messages
- 3,671
- Reaction score
- 3
It means you don’t know how they work.
I don’t know if you are aware of where they went to eliminate hamas or hezbolla officials in Dubhai the man was electrocuted while opening the door of his own room in hotel (Mossad team was caught on hotel’s cameras), how they tried to eliminate a low level official of hamas or hezbolla in Jordan by introducing in his ear a toxin which sent him coma but were caught by Jordan police patrolling. Without forgetting what I have heard myself from Israeli radio news broadcasted in french during the first days of first Gulf war were a former Mossad officer tell “Saray ham” what they did to start the war between Shia and Sunni in Lebanon in the 70’s.
Di you remember what they did in Irak ? when they bombed their nuclear center ? I remember having seen myself on french TV a program about it in which they explained how they selected the pilots tasked for this mission : not married, no parents alive, no one which could have requested their bodies in case they had been shotdown....
If you had witnessed yourself those programs/news broadcasted by themselves, you would understand that it is very possible they could have sent some of their pilots. At least in the co-pilots seat if not in the pilot one.
Unfortunately I had never the opportunity to record those valuable informations.
DESERT FIGHTER
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Jan 1, 2010
- Messages
- 46,973
- Reaction score
- 95
- Country
- Location
So these bastards allegedly know the call sign? But couldnt detect PAF jets bombing their arsehole and shoot down their jets?
Fuktards.
Fuktards.
Rahil khan
FULL MEMBER
- Joined
- Dec 3, 2011
- Messages
- 1,783
- Reaction score
- 0
- Country
- Location
That fire proof, impact proof part of missile was made specially for Indian by Uncle Sam with indestructible materials so that one day a bunch of mentally lost, nervous, and uncertain IAF officials shall lift it to the entire audience. Any sane mind could have easily comprehend the body language of IAF officials....his spokesperson's body language was vague, uncertain and shocked....as if such press conference was forced upon him. Indians have the habit of altering history to their own likes and dislikes. This time they failed miserably.
monitor
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Apr 24, 2007
- Messages
- 8,570
- Reaction score
- 7
- Country
- Location
In PAF lies & subterfuge, an F-16 tail number & a PAF pilot — both hidden to serve a myth
ISPR is leading Pakistan’s hybrid war of denial since the day PAF lost its most advanced platform to a gritty IAF counterattack. But the evidence is right in front of us to sift, writes former IAF Mirage pilot and air warfare writer Sameer Joshi.
SAMEER JOSHIUpdated: 7 April, 2019 6:56 pm IST
A PAF F-16 at Nellis AFB during Ex Red Flag in 2016 | Medium
Text Size:
How the Pakistani state has managed to clamp down on eyewitness accounts, online videos of the crash and initial ISPR flip flops — to obscure the fact that a PAF F-16 jet was shot down by an Indian Air Force MiG-21 Bison on 27 February 2019. Interestingly, after over a month post the aerial clash the narrative is being twisted significantly — with a distinguished foreign media house jumping in the fray and claiming that no F-16 was shot down by the IAF that day. Nothing could give more succour to the dirty tricks department at ISPR, led by the infamous Major General Asif Ghafoor of the Pakistan Army, who has been at the forefront of Pakistan’s hybrid war campaign to deny any manner of worthwhile information scrutiny on the matter since the day the PAF lost one of its most advanced platform to a bold and gritty IAF counterattack. While the evidence is right in front of us to sift through its worth; the first indication of a massive coverup by the Pakistani state on this intriguing subject was provided by none other than Major General Ghafoor himself — who it seems, was overwhelmed by the ‘truth of it’ all in those initial few hours post the aerial clash.
Tragically for the Pakistani nation, there is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact and somewhere in between this blatant game of lies and deception — is a F-16 tail number and a dedicated PAF pilot — both of whom having served Pakistan to the best of their ability; now have had their records unceremoniously wiped out from the face of the earth to serve a wider subterfuge of upholding the morale and image of the Pāk Fizāʾiyah, the pantheon of past glory and Pakistan’s best shot at hitting back at India in these times of turmoil.
IAF’s shoots down a PAF F-16
Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, an Indian Air Force MiG-21 Bison pilot made history around 10 AM on 27 February 2019, when he targeted a formation of Pakistan Air Force F-16s who were engaging IAF Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighters with their AIM-120 AMRAAM beyond visual range missiles; closing in undetected and shooting down one of them with a Vympel R-73 heat seeking air to air missile over the Lam valley in Nowshera sub sector of south western Jammu and Kashmir. Abhinandan became the first MiG-21 pilot in the world to shoot down a F-16 jet.
A MiG-21 Bison of the Indian Air Force/ Photo — Angad Singh
Unfortunately Abhinandan’s MiG-21 was also hit by an AMRAAM missile fired by another F-16 as he was heading back towards India, having crossed the LOC in pursuit of the F-16 only tens of seconds earlier. He ejected from the stricken aircraft and parachuted to safety, landing 4 km away from the LOC near Horan Kotla village in Azad Kashmir. He was brutally attacked by civilians, before being dramatically handed over to the Pakistan Army.
His ordeal made him a focal point of the developing crisis, when in gross violation of the Geneva convention, the footage of his battered face was intentionally released on Pakistani television and social media by Pakistan Army affiliates minutes later.
What was clear was that the Pakistan Armed Forces had activated the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) to get the narrative under control.
ISPR — Goebblism personified
The Inter-Services Public Relations, is the media wing of the Pakistan Armed Forces which broadcasts and coordinates military news and information to the country’s civilian media and the civic society. Under this innocuous looking mandate hides the the real mandate of the ISPR — where the Pakistan Army uses the ISPR as the misinformation medium to escalate and de- escalate a rapidly building information threat to suit its tactical and strategic aim. ISPR is at the tip of Pakistan’s hybrid war effort, embedded well with the complexities of military manoeuvres, political power play and deft disinformation, with sempiternal loyalty only to the Pakistan Army — and the nation it serves be damned!
While the ISPR is known for its notoriety in manipulating the ‘everything of anything’, history has proved on umpteen occasions that even for the smoothest of them operators — there is many a proverbial slip between the cup and the lip.
The ISPR narrative and the Flip Flops
Two interesting events took place post Abhinandan’s ejection on 27 February.
First the Indian Air Force reported through the ANI’s Twitter handle that they had shot down a F-16 over Laam valley. It also acknowledged the loss of one of its MiG-21.
Secondly, Major General Asif Ghafoor — the Director-General of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) and chief spokesperson of Pakistan Armed Forces tweeted on the ISPR handle that two Indian jets had been shot down by the PAF in Azad Kashmir, with one pilot arrested by the Pak army and two still in the area. Even as facts were being ascertained and the before IAF could give any info, Pakistani handles on social media started talking about the shooting down of two IAF jets and the arrest of the Indian pilots.
While addressing a press conference at noon, a good hour after his first significant tweet, Maj Gen Ghafoor said that — another pilot has been arrested. “Our ground forces arrested two pilots; one of them was injured and has been shifted to CMH (Combined Military Hospital) and, God-willing, he will be taken care of,” said the army official and reiterated that “The other one is with us.” Maj Gen Ghafoor also assured all that no F-16 of the PAF had been shot down,since the F-16s were ‘not’ used in combat in that sector at all. Interestingly, the Pak PM Imran Khan also confirmed that Pakistan had two Indian pilots in custody.
Post that press conference, the ISPR chief informed all that the pilot in their custody in the military hospital had died.
At 6:19 PM in the evening, the last tweet on the subject from Maj Gen Ghafoor clarified that the Pak Army had just ‘one’ IAF pilot in its custody. He was Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman.
In the time between his first and last tweet, the social media, particularly on Twitter, spiked up with a virtual war between the Indian and Pakistani sympathisers posting a barrage of messages, videos and photos to bolster their claims. This was nudged by the ISPR’s dedicated campaign to showcase the travails of Abhinandan Varthaman as their POW, increasing in intensity as the day progressed — in a clear effort to shift the focus of attention away from the shooting down of the PAF F-16 and the fate of the other downed pilot.
But Why?
1# Because the loss of a top of the line F-16 aircraft would be counter productive to the morale and standing of the Pakistan Air Force, especially at the hands of an Indian MiG-21 Bison — considered by most experts to be a generation older than the F-16. It was already reeling under ignominy from the day before’s surgical strike by IAF Mirage 2000s on the Balakot JeM camp. Hence the PAF’s psyche would go to any length, including lying — to keep this information a closely guarded secret.
2# Because in an evil twist of fate — Pakistani civilians in the Sabzkot area of Azad Kashmir had assaulted an injured PAF pilot, who had ejected out of his F-16 — mistaking him for an Indian pilot. The pilot subsequently died at the CMH, probably due to the wounds received in this manhandling or post ejection. The ISPR lied at the end of the day that it had only one pilot to keep this tragedy under wrap.
3# Because Pakistan’s duplicity on the subject of covering up and not accepting its losses is well known. More than 1000 killed in actions (KIA) of the Pak Army were never officially acknowledged by Pakistan after the Kargil war with India in 1999. Since its partition from India, Pakistan continues to experience a security deficit vis-à-vis India, hence would go all out to hide losses suffered to maintain the so called martial dominance over the Indian military.
4# Because the PAF did not want to reveal to the world that an American made F-16 had been used as part of an offensive operation against India on 27 February, voilating end use agreement on many counts, including use of the AIM-120 C-5 AMRAAM air to air missile — which ostensibly had been given to Pakistan to be used against its war on terror. So Maj Gen Ghafoor resorted to lies, that no F-16s were used that day.
5# Because Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor’s trigger happy tweets and the presser in the first six hours post the aerial clash clearly points us towards the ‘truth’ in the information received by him — Who would believe that in today’s digital age with the Pak Army’s superbly networked communications, the head of ISPR would be battling the fog of war while collating reports about IAF POWs from various Pak formations in the Bhimber region of Azad Kashmir — one reported by a Mujahid Battalion near Horan Kotla and the second by a Northern Light Infantry (NLI) Battalion near Sabzkot.
The DG ISPR was lying all through the day — unfortunately himself becoming a victim of a half backed truth.
By the time the shenanigans at the ISPR realised their goof up and said they had only one IAF pilot in their custody, the cat was out of the bag — giving the first tangible lead to the Indian Air Force on the possible sequence of events post downing of the F-16 and the MiG-21.
Analysing the evidence available on the F-16 shooting
Lets take a look at the OSINT info and the evidence that the Indian Air Force has officially revealed on the shooting down of the PAF F-16.
That F-16s engaged with the IAF near Poonch — Naoshera sub sector on 27 February has been proven beyond doubt by the electronic signatures, as well as various video and visual sightings from both sides of the Line ofd Control.
Electromagnetic Evidence on the Air Situation
The IAF’s Phalcon AWACS, which while not on station and not controlling the IAF vs PAF air situation — had adequate radar pick up on the aerial engagement unfolding via its powerful airborne AESA radar. The Phalcon was able to map the large force engagement (LFE) from 10,000 to 40,000 feet, distinguishing and identifying the various PAF fighters taking part through their electromagnetic emissions (radars, navigational equipment and othet active sensors) — duly picked up, processed and analysed by the its powerful Electronic Intelligence (Elint) systems. It identified F-16, JF-17 and Mirage IIIs as part of the PAF package, spread out from north to south J&K on three main axes near the Line of Control in the Azad Kashmir.
The fused radar and Elint signatures accurately depicts the presence in time and space of the F-16’s APG-68 V9 radar signature over Lam valley, along with 4 different blips between 10–15,000 feet.
The data proves beyond doubt — that F-16s were operating against India that day — exposing the lies and contradictions of the DG ISPR, Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor — exposed further by the remains of the AMRAAMmissile found in Naoshera sector by the Indian military. AMRAAM missiles can only be fired by F-16s in the PAF inventory.
The IAF’s PRO and his team displaying part of an AMRAAM missile fired by the PAF F-16s against IAF Su-30MKIs
The IAF’s Integrated Air Command & Control System (IACCS) had initially missed tracking the ingress of these 4 F-16s towards the LOC since they maintained below the radar horizon of the IAF’s ground based radars, picking them only once they approached north of Poonch; where they lay in wait to ambush IAF Su-30MKIs who were being ‘pushed’ towards them by another formation of 4 F-16s north west of Poonch at 40,000 feet. This formation had fired 4–5 AMRAAM missiles at IAF Su-30 MKIs as they approached south of Rajouri.
Having spotted the lower formation of F-16s and seeing that the Su-30MKIs were effectively being checked by the higher formation of F-16s — the IACCS vectored two MiG-21 Bisons to prevent these 4 F-16s from breaking through towards Srinagar — Awantipore. Abhinandan was the lead in this 2 aircraft MiG-21 pair. The approach of the 2 MiG-21s was missed by the F-16s who were busy scanning for the Su-30MKIs, but a Saab 2000 ERIEYE Airborne Early Warning & Control (AEW&C) operating in depth near Islamabad, spotted the MiG-21s over Naoshera, warning the F-16s. The IAF’s gound controller saw the defensive maneuvering of the F-16s, warning the MiGs in turn. While his No 2, who was lagging behind, turned ‘cold’ or away from the F-16s which were going ‘hot’ or facing the MiGs — –Abhinandan chose to ignore this threat and continued towards the F-16s.
Both the IACCS & The Phalcon AWACS registered the radar signature of one MiG-21 piloted by Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman cross the Line of Control and engage a F-16 with a R-73 missile. His call on R/T of a missile launch was monitored by the AWACS. Abhinandan was 8–10 km away from the F-16, which was turning towards him — aiming for a frontal aspect launch with high closing speed between the missile and the incoming F-16. The R-73 is a heat seeking air to air missile with a sensitive, dual band cryogenic cooled seeker with a substantial off-boresight capability. The seeker can see targets up to 40° off the missile’s centreline. Minimum engagement range is about 300 meters, with maximum aerodynamic range of nearly 30 km at altitude.
Abhinandan fired his R-73 well within the range and tracking capabilities of the R-73 missile, with a high closing speed of more than 3500 kmph between the missile and the F-16, which was at 15,000 feet. At those ranges, the missile would have closed into the target in less than 20 seconds, its proximity fuse activating the 7.4 kg warhead to explode and engulf the F-16 in frontal quarters with flame and high velocity shrapnel — in all probability grievously injuring the pilot. The ‘splashed’ F-16 fell towards the earth post that, with the pilot ejecting out of the stricken aircraft as reported by eyewitnesses.
The F-16 ‘kill’ was noticed by the Phalcon’s radar — with the said blip vanishing from the radar scope in the radar picture processed — 8 seconds after the previous one, which had shown the blip in place.
This is the first hard evidence on the F-16 kill based on a concrete electronic signature recordings.
The same is corroborated by a Thales GS-100 Low Level Targeting Radar (LLTR) deployed in that area and integrated into the IACCS, The GS-100 is an AESA radar with low-altitude search capability that can track targets up to 180 km range with high accuracy. The post event milking out of radar data from the GS-100 clearly has shown the MiG-21 closing into the F-16s, which were higher between 15–25,00 feet.
The overlapping time and place of the missile launch and the subsequent ‘splash’ with the blip vanishing is registered very accurately, matching with the Phalcon data. This is the second hard evidence on the F-16 kill.
The same LLTR had clearly registered a PAF F-16 maneuvering towards Abhinandan’s MiG-21, as he turned northwards post his missile launch. Guided by the Saab ERIEYE, it was a classic Type III converting into a Type IV interception by the F-16 — which fired and an AMRAAM to shoot down the IAF MiG-21. The LLTR noticed the MiG-21 blip vanishing after nearly a minute post the F-16 kill, matching with the account from Abhinandan’s debrief post his repatriation back to India.
Visual Sighting and Plotting by Indian Army
The air battle was visible in great details, on both sides of the Line of control, thanks to the contrails formed at the altitudes where the jets were operating on most occasions.
The ensuing air combat as viewed from the Pakistani side of line of control
As the F-16 fell to the ground after being hit by the MiG-21, its downward trajectory with parachutes in proximity, was recorded by at least 2 different geographically apart Indian Army posts, which accurately estimated that the wreckage would have fallen 7–8 km in Azad Kashmir close to Sabzkot in Bhimber.
About 40–50 seconds later, the same army posts noticed and tracked Abhinandan’s MiG-21 going down and his ejection in general area Tandar 6–7 km in Azad Kashmir, which through OSINT is close to the village of Horan Kotla where the wreckage was seen vividly on social media.
The sightings and the time of the aircraft (and parachutes), match up with the electronic signatures from both the AWACS and the LLTR.
This is irrefutable proof of the F-16 being shot down by the MiG-21.
Post this, radio transmission picked up by the Indian military around 1145H shows Pakistan soldiers from Northern Light Infantry talking about two ‘parinda‘ (aircraft) and two ‘parinde wale‘ (pilots), having bagged one in their custody.
While the first parachute was seen in General Area Sabzkot, the second parachute was spotted in General Area Tandar. The distance between the two locations of the F-16 and MiG-21 wreckage is about 6–7 kms.
In a damning intercept at 1242H, a soldier of 7 Northern Light Infantry battalion, Tandar area, blatantly talks about soldiers from 658 Mujahid battalion having picked up a second pilot — which was Abhinandan as seen with the Mujahid soldiers in the various social media grabs. The NLI soldiers already had one pilot in custody at the time. At 1520 hours, another intercept says that while one pilot is in custody, another has been sent to the military hospital.
This clearly shows that a second pilot was also in the Pak Army custody as also being mentioned in the parralel narrative by the ISPR chief.
So if one was Abhinandan with the Mujahids, who was the second pilot with the NLI battalion — who can be none other than the F-16 pilot!
Besides the initial video of locals who said two pilots were caught, the sighting by the Indian army and videos showing two parachutes coming down — all indicate that a Pakistan jet was shot down.
A case of two wreckages and three parachutes: OSINT data analysis
After sifting through a large volume of social media videos, images and posts — some very interesting OSINT data emerges. With over 10 different videos of the aerial engagement and the subsequent aircraft crashing into the ground accessed, there are at least two videos which show two different aircraft falling towards the ground. These can be distinguished by their rapidly falling trajectories towards the ground and the vapour trails created in the skies.
Clearly two different aircraft have crashed in the Bhimber region, Azad Kashmir on the 27th of February.
There were at least 2 different aircraft spotted crashing to the ground in Azad Kashmir on 27 February
A detailed analysis of Abhinandan’s crash site by geospatial experts and eyewitness accounts places it near the village of Horan Kotla in Tandar area. Working backwards from the location of the MiG-21 wreckage, one can plot the approximate area where the F-16 wreckage might have fallen.
After the tirade of videos on the MiG-21 wreckage surfacing on the social media, there was an initial rush to brand the Mig-21’s R-25 engine, as seen in the wreckage — as the F-16’s General Electric Engine. However, it petered down when experts stepped in to debunk these theories.
A part of the R-25 engine at the MiG-21 crash site. Note the Mujahid battalion troops at the location
What is however noteworthy — is the hurry that the Pak Army showed in its attempt to transport and shift pieces of the MiG-21 wreckage from the crash site. This initiative took place around 1500H that and a Twitter video on same reveals a very vital clue.
While loading up the mangled parts at one of the location, Nothern Light Infantry (NLI) soldiers apprear with — what has been identified as a smooth finish panel. The IAF has confirmed that this panel is ‘not’ part of the MiG-21.
The IAF has confirmed that this is NOT a part of a MiG 21
Referring back to the radio intercepts and the photos on social media, the presence of the NLI troops in loading this panel, as compared to the Mujahid troops at the MiG-21 crash site, confirms that, first it was a different location from the Abhinandan’s crash site; and second, the chances of this smooth finish panel being a part of the F-16 are very high.
Another photo was accessed the very same day through social media in the Bhimber region of Azad Kashmir, with the picture clearly showing what appears to be a part of a panel of a F-16 jet.
The grey/ light gray camouflage panel can only be a part of a PAF F-16 aircraft
The grey/ light gray camouflage panel can only be a part of a PAF F-16 aircraft
These two photographs, which somehow escaped the Pak Army’s information clampdown on the F-16 wreckage site — provide ample proof that the PAF F-16 had disintegrated after the R-73 hit and its wreckage was strewn and scattered around the area in the same manner as that of the MiG-21.
Now lets examine the various versions of the videos floating around on the social media of eyewitnesses around the crash sites. Some of these witnesses interviewed — claim to have seen at least three different parachutes. This matches to the sightings by the Indian troops, who saw different parachutes from both the crashes, at different locations in the area. The following key aspects emerge from the comments of the various eyewitness. Lets analyse them for their worth-
1# There were more than one parachute in the sky — Cleary seen in the various video grabs, this adequately indicates that more than one pilot ejected.
2# Pak civilians had apprehended Abhinandan, who tried to escape, but was caught and handed over to the Pak Army — This is documented well with a flurry of ISPR and Pak media videos and images on the social media.
3# Ostensibly, one of the witness claimed that they had apprehended an IAF sikh pilot of the IAF — In all probability, the witness has confused Abhinandan, who was wearing a skull cap under his helmet, which resembles a sikh patka at times. His burly moustache with the patka would have given the impression of him being a Sikh to the eyewitnesses on ground.
4# Many witnesses claim to have seen a parachute with colours of the Indian flag — A very significant detail, which emerged in many videos on the social media. On closer analysis, a startling fact emerges — the colour of the C-9 parachute on the PAF F-16’s ACES ejection seat has four colours — white, orange, jungle green and sandy brown — eaily anyone taking a look at the same will assume it to be an Indian parachute due its uncanny resemblence to the Indian flag.
In all probability, just like they tried to lynch Abhinandan when he landed — the Azad Kashmir civilians have clearly mistaken the F-16 parachute to be an Indian and lynched the possibly injured PAF pilot. Due to extreme injuries, the PAF pillot would have been taken to the Pak Army CMH as briefed by the Maj Gen Ghafoor to all, where he would have passed away die to the wounds sustained. Eyewitness accounts from Azad Kashmir civilians also confirm that the second pilot was taken to a Pak army hospital.
A quick run of an image and size interpolation software comparing the reference C-9 image from above and the image taken from a Pakistani video grab of a parachute landing in the area throws up some interesting results — confirming the view that a F-16 parachute did land near the same time that Abhinandan ejected .
Image interpolation of the reference C-9 image with the screengrab image of a parachute landing suspected to be post the F-16 shoot down
Image interpolation of the reference C-9 image with the screengrab image of a parachute landing suspected to be post the F-16 shoot down
So why didn’t the Pakistanis recognise their own pilot before lynching him?
For this we need to go back in air — at the exact moment when Abhinandan fired his R-73 against the PAF F-16. As per Abhinandan’s debrief after his return, the R-73 missile was fired when the PAF aircraft was turning towards the IAF MiG-21, about to roll out towards him in its frontal quarter. This means when the R-73 missile, based on the massive closing speed of over 3500 kmph, would have reached the calculated range for its proximity fuse to explode the warhead — the PAF jet would be still travelling be towards the explosion.
Let’s try to understand how the R-73 warhead would have exploded — The R-73 has a continuous rod warhead weighing 7.4 kg — which is activated by a proximity fuse when it senses an aircraft in close quarters. When detonated, the high explosive imparts momentum to the rods, thrusting them outward in an expanding circle. The pressure wave from the explosive acts evenly on the rods over their length. The rods are sufficiently soft to allow the expansion without breaking the rods or the welded joints, and the detonation velocity is limited to close to 1000 m/s, allowing the rods to bend at these locations instead. At some intermediate point the ring will have a zig-zag (alternating direction) appearance within a cylindrical envelope — Upon ultimate expansion the ring is circular and contained within a plane.
This rapidly expanding ring, when hitting the aircraft, is more effective than an equivalent fragmentation warhead — for the science inclined, the ring’s effectiveness decreasing as 1/R, rather than 1/R2 for fragments.
Portions of the aircraft intercepted by the expanding ring of the continuous rod warhead — will receive a continuous cut through the skin, light structure, underlying cables, hydraulic lines, and other plumbing if present — This may cause a structural failure, or, if not, can be sufficient for defeating the redundancy of aircraft systems. The effect is only pronounced as long as the ring is unbroken, so multiple layers of rods are employed in practical weapons to increase the effective radius.
Expansion of a continuous rod warhead explained
Now when the R-73’s warhead would have exploded and expanded ‘outwards’ ‘towards’ the front at over 1000 m/s, the closing speed of over 3500 kmph would have ensured that the F-16 itself would be coming towards the explosion at 972 m/s.
So if we assume that the proximity fuse would have initiated the explosion in frontal quarters at around 300m — there would hardly be any time between the effect of the explosion taking shape, expanding the flame and shrapnel effect at high velocity outwards; and the closing in F-16 to absorb the explosion effectively. What that means is that most of the frontal section of the F-16 would have flown in through the expanding shockwave, with damage mostly limited due to shrapnel, rather than the explosive effect.
Effect of the R-73 warhead on the incoming F-16
Hence it is clear that the pilot would have survived the heat and flameeffects of the explosion, but would have in all probability been effected by the shrapnel effect of the explosion — grievously injuring his upper body — with the flying helmet preventing fatal injuries, but not able to prevent rampant injuries to the face, neck and chest level.
In contrast, the AMRAAM hit on Abhinandan’s MiG-21 was from right 7 ‘o’ clock position, mostly damaging the rear portion of the MiG-21, as is visible during the post crash analysis of the wreckage.
An example of the effect of a missile hitting from rear quarters, like in the case of the MiG-21
Abhinandan’s aircraft displays signs of a classic missile hit in the rear quarters
So when the PAF F-16 pilot would have ejected, he would in all probability have been injured in the upper torso and facial region. He may or may not have been concious due to his injuries. After his landing in Sabzkot — the Azad Kashmir civilians would not have found the classic traces of PAF flight overalls and livery/ patches, which would have in all probability been ripped off due the high velocity shrapnel — crucially may not have displayed any name indicating he was a Pakistani. They would not have recognised him as a PAF pilot and assesing from the Indian coloured parachute — would have have mobbed him like Abhinandan, before being handed over to the NLI Regiment soldiers, injured and battered.
Though circumstantial, this relevant evidence proves that a Pakistani pilot was apprehended and injured by a mob after landing and would later have been taken to a Military hospital, where he may have died due his injuries as claimed by the ISPR.
Who was the PAF pilot shot down by the IAF?
Interestingly, post the aerial melee over South Western J&K on 27 February, the Pakistani Foreign Minister on 6 March spoke in the parliament about — two PAF pilotswho had shot down IAF aircraft. These pilots were Squadron Leader Hassan Siddiqui and Wing Commander Nauman Ali Khan.
His statement needs to be analysed objectively for the message it conveys — The FM said when interacting with the other members, “One clarification — Bilawal paid tribute to Hassan Siddiqui as he’s absolutely a national hero, But I would like to clarify that two Indian planes were shot down. The other one was shot down by Wg Cdr Nauman Ali Khan,” he added, asking that the second pilot also begiven due credit.”
Why did Bilal Bhutto and other parliamentarians praise the younger Sqn Ldr Hassan Siddiqui? Why was his heroism more significant that Nauman Ali Khan?
Why in the first week of March 2019, did the PAF chiefurgently visit all PAF bases, particularly those housing the F-16 squadrons?
While Wing Commander Nauman Ali Khan was seen being congratulated by the PAF chief, Air Marshal Mujhaid Anwar Khan in a recent PAF propoganda video — why has there been no photo or video released of Sqn Ldr Hassan Siddiqui post the aerial engagement? Why is a fake video being circulated by ISPR affiliates on social media as that of Sqn Ldr Hassan Siddiqui after his return post shooting an IAF aircraft — the person being shown is not Hassan Siddiqui.
PAF chief personally congartulating Wg Cdr Nauman Ali Khan for shooting down an IAF MiG-21
It is my suspicion that Squadron Leader Hassan Siddiqui may be the pilot who was shot down by Wing Commander Abhinandan on 27 February. The fact that his heroism is widely recognised by the Pak parliament and ISPR is covering his presence with fake information, strengthens my theory.
Even if I am wrong, the fact of the matter is that a nameless PAF F-16 fighter pilot has sacrificed his life for Pakistan.
Tragically for the Pakistani nation, with the Pak Army adept at hushing up the deaths of hundreds of its soldiers without as much as batting an eyelid — there is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact — and somewhere in between this blatant game of lies and deception by the ISPR — is a F-16 tail number and a dedicated PAF pilot — both of whom having served Pakistan to the best of their ability; now have had their records unceremoniously wiped out from the face of the earth to serve a wider subterfuge of upholding the morale and image of the Pāk Fizāʾiyah, the pantheon of past glory and Pakistan’s best shot at hitting back at India in these times of turmoil.
The show goes on….
Since the initial flip flops on the day of the F-16 shoot down, the ISPR and the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) have invested a good amount of effort on creating alternative evidence around the MiG-21 wreckage, as well as reaching out to its foreign affiliates and sleepers — to influence foreign publications in questioning the IAF claim of a F-16 shot down at an international level — much in line with its effort to embarrass the IAF’s Balakot strike by the recruiting geospatial domain specialists across the word in its deception.
While any independent viewpoint on the subject is a worth a discussion — The IAF will need to watch out for articles based on false claims and twisted data, such as the recent Foreign Policy media piece by Lara Seligman. Ms Seligman claimed in her post that two US government sources has confirmed to her that ‘no’ F-16s had been lost by the PAF. This was based on a head count of all Pakistani F-16s by the USG as part of the end user compiances post 27 February.
The FP piece created a furore in the Indian media circles due the damning information it contained. While the IAF countered this by showing crystal clear proof in the form of the electronic signatures and call intercepts in its possession on the subject — Indian agencies were clearly seeing the hand of ISPR in this unwarranted spin to the Mig-21 vs F-16 saga.
This was proven to be a lie — as the US Government categorically denied any such F-16 count having taken place at all.
And, lesser the said of Ms Seligman’s downward spiralling credibility post this, the better!
However Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor went ballistic on the subject, claiming that the ISPR and PAF’s denials had been vindicated. It was clear that the narrative besides influencing certain quarters of global information cells, was clearly aimed at placating a domestic audience — which had discreetly started to question the reality on the aerial engagement.
And things are not going well for the ISPR at all — with the DG ISPR having been forced to accept that the PAF had used F-16s in the aerial engagement on 27 February — another of his lies busted in earnest!
Bellowing his last hurrah on the subject — Maj Gen Ghafoor unrolled another tweet insinuating that — no missile was fired by the MiG-21 — with all being recovered at the site of the wreckage.
A closer inspection of the photograph has revealed that the extreme right R-73 missile has been fired — it being the remains of the R-73 used to shoot down the PAF F-16.
Bravo! Another lie exposed!!!
A very thoughtful tweet on the above does full justice to the ISPR’s protracted effort to keep up the disinformation campaign against India –
Lies will take the ISPR only as far; as mentioned earlier — the occassionalslip between the cup and the lip, can cost a lot!
There is more than ample evidence that Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman piloting a MiG-21 jet — has shot down a PAF F-16.
The onus is on Pakistan to prove that they have not lost any aircraft.
As the well known Aviation historian Jagan Pillariseti states — ‘Pak Once Disproved Indian Kill Claims By Flaunting All Its Mirages, Why Not Now With F-16s?’
Let’s wait for the next move by ISPR on the subject……!!!
The author is an former fighter pilot with extensive experience on the Mirage 2000 and MiG 21 aircraft of the IAF. He has seen combat in the 1999 Indo Pak Kargil conflict. He writes on military subjects and his article on the Air War in Syria, won the best military aviation submission at the 2017 Paris Airshow.
This article was originally published on Medium. Read the original article here.
Check out My543, our comprehensive report card of all Lok Sabha MPs.
39 COMMENTS SHARE YOUR VIEWS
NEXT STORY
Home Defence
New Delhi: The DRDO has ruled out future anti-satellite (A-SAT) missile tests in the lower earth orbit, but hinted at keeping the options open for possible experiments in higher orbits.
At a press conference Saturday, the Defence Research and Development Organisation also said any decision on weaponisation of space would be taken by the government.
The DRDO said the interceptor used for the 27 March successful A-SAT missile test had the capability to hit targets 1,000 km away, but they had intentionally chosen the target at an altitude of 283 km to prevent creation of space debris.
“The Indian interceptor had the capability to target a satellite at a height of 1,000 km but a low earth satellite was
1 COMMENT SHARE YOUR VIEWS
NEXT STORY
Home Defence
NIA arrests another ‘Jaish operative’ for
New Delhi: The National Investigation Agency Saturday arrested another alleged Jaish-e-Mohammed operative in connection with the terror attack on a CRPF camp in Lethpora, south Kashmir, on 30 December 2017, in which five personnel were killed.
Syed Hilal Andrabi (35), who belongs to Jammu and Kashmir’s Pulwama district, has been sent to police custody for five days after being produced before a special court.
The NIA has now asked the court for Andrabi’s custody to “unearth the larger conspiracy behind this attack”.
“Arrested accused Syed Hilal Andrabi is an active OGW (over-ground worker) of proscribed terrorist organisation Jaish-e-Mohammad (sic). He is a key conspirator who provided logistic support in the form of sheltering the terrorists and conducting reconnaissance of the CRPF group centre, Lethpora, before the
Copyright © 2019 Printline Media Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved.
ISPR is leading Pakistan’s hybrid war of denial since the day PAF lost its most advanced platform to a gritty IAF counterattack. But the evidence is right in front of us to sift, writes former IAF Mirage pilot and air warfare writer Sameer Joshi.
SAMEER JOSHIUpdated: 7 April, 2019 6:56 pm IST
A PAF F-16 at Nellis AFB during Ex Red Flag in 2016 | Medium
Text Size:
How the Pakistani state has managed to clamp down on eyewitness accounts, online videos of the crash and initial ISPR flip flops — to obscure the fact that a PAF F-16 jet was shot down by an Indian Air Force MiG-21 Bison on 27 February 2019. Interestingly, after over a month post the aerial clash the narrative is being twisted significantly — with a distinguished foreign media house jumping in the fray and claiming that no F-16 was shot down by the IAF that day. Nothing could give more succour to the dirty tricks department at ISPR, led by the infamous Major General Asif Ghafoor of the Pakistan Army, who has been at the forefront of Pakistan’s hybrid war campaign to deny any manner of worthwhile information scrutiny on the matter since the day the PAF lost one of its most advanced platform to a bold and gritty IAF counterattack. While the evidence is right in front of us to sift through its worth; the first indication of a massive coverup by the Pakistani state on this intriguing subject was provided by none other than Major General Ghafoor himself — who it seems, was overwhelmed by the ‘truth of it’ all in those initial few hours post the aerial clash.
Tragically for the Pakistani nation, there is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact and somewhere in between this blatant game of lies and deception — is a F-16 tail number and a dedicated PAF pilot — both of whom having served Pakistan to the best of their ability; now have had their records unceremoniously wiped out from the face of the earth to serve a wider subterfuge of upholding the morale and image of the Pāk Fizāʾiyah, the pantheon of past glory and Pakistan’s best shot at hitting back at India in these times of turmoil.
IAF’s shoots down a PAF F-16
Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, an Indian Air Force MiG-21 Bison pilot made history around 10 AM on 27 February 2019, when he targeted a formation of Pakistan Air Force F-16s who were engaging IAF Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighters with their AIM-120 AMRAAM beyond visual range missiles; closing in undetected and shooting down one of them with a Vympel R-73 heat seeking air to air missile over the Lam valley in Nowshera sub sector of south western Jammu and Kashmir. Abhinandan became the first MiG-21 pilot in the world to shoot down a F-16 jet.
A MiG-21 Bison of the Indian Air Force/ Photo — Angad Singh
Unfortunately Abhinandan’s MiG-21 was also hit by an AMRAAM missile fired by another F-16 as he was heading back towards India, having crossed the LOC in pursuit of the F-16 only tens of seconds earlier. He ejected from the stricken aircraft and parachuted to safety, landing 4 km away from the LOC near Horan Kotla village in Azad Kashmir. He was brutally attacked by civilians, before being dramatically handed over to the Pakistan Army.
His ordeal made him a focal point of the developing crisis, when in gross violation of the Geneva convention, the footage of his battered face was intentionally released on Pakistani television and social media by Pakistan Army affiliates minutes later.
What was clear was that the Pakistan Armed Forces had activated the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) to get the narrative under control.
ISPR — Goebblism personified
The Inter-Services Public Relations, is the media wing of the Pakistan Armed Forces which broadcasts and coordinates military news and information to the country’s civilian media and the civic society. Under this innocuous looking mandate hides the the real mandate of the ISPR — where the Pakistan Army uses the ISPR as the misinformation medium to escalate and de- escalate a rapidly building information threat to suit its tactical and strategic aim. ISPR is at the tip of Pakistan’s hybrid war effort, embedded well with the complexities of military manoeuvres, political power play and deft disinformation, with sempiternal loyalty only to the Pakistan Army — and the nation it serves be damned!
While the ISPR is known for its notoriety in manipulating the ‘everything of anything’, history has proved on umpteen occasions that even for the smoothest of them operators — there is many a proverbial slip between the cup and the lip.
The ISPR narrative and the Flip Flops
Two interesting events took place post Abhinandan’s ejection on 27 February.
First the Indian Air Force reported through the ANI’s Twitter handle that they had shot down a F-16 over Laam valley. It also acknowledged the loss of one of its MiG-21.
Secondly, Major General Asif Ghafoor — the Director-General of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) and chief spokesperson of Pakistan Armed Forces tweeted on the ISPR handle that two Indian jets had been shot down by the PAF in Azad Kashmir, with one pilot arrested by the Pak army and two still in the area. Even as facts were being ascertained and the before IAF could give any info, Pakistani handles on social media started talking about the shooting down of two IAF jets and the arrest of the Indian pilots.
While addressing a press conference at noon, a good hour after his first significant tweet, Maj Gen Ghafoor said that — another pilot has been arrested. “Our ground forces arrested two pilots; one of them was injured and has been shifted to CMH (Combined Military Hospital) and, God-willing, he will be taken care of,” said the army official and reiterated that “The other one is with us.” Maj Gen Ghafoor also assured all that no F-16 of the PAF had been shot down,since the F-16s were ‘not’ used in combat in that sector at all. Interestingly, the Pak PM Imran Khan also confirmed that Pakistan had two Indian pilots in custody.
Post that press conference, the ISPR chief informed all that the pilot in their custody in the military hospital had died.
At 6:19 PM in the evening, the last tweet on the subject from Maj Gen Ghafoor clarified that the Pak Army had just ‘one’ IAF pilot in its custody. He was Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman.
In the time between his first and last tweet, the social media, particularly on Twitter, spiked up with a virtual war between the Indian and Pakistani sympathisers posting a barrage of messages, videos and photos to bolster their claims. This was nudged by the ISPR’s dedicated campaign to showcase the travails of Abhinandan Varthaman as their POW, increasing in intensity as the day progressed — in a clear effort to shift the focus of attention away from the shooting down of the PAF F-16 and the fate of the other downed pilot.
But Why?
1# Because the loss of a top of the line F-16 aircraft would be counter productive to the morale and standing of the Pakistan Air Force, especially at the hands of an Indian MiG-21 Bison — considered by most experts to be a generation older than the F-16. It was already reeling under ignominy from the day before’s surgical strike by IAF Mirage 2000s on the Balakot JeM camp. Hence the PAF’s psyche would go to any length, including lying — to keep this information a closely guarded secret.
2# Because in an evil twist of fate — Pakistani civilians in the Sabzkot area of Azad Kashmir had assaulted an injured PAF pilot, who had ejected out of his F-16 — mistaking him for an Indian pilot. The pilot subsequently died at the CMH, probably due to the wounds received in this manhandling or post ejection. The ISPR lied at the end of the day that it had only one pilot to keep this tragedy under wrap.
3# Because Pakistan’s duplicity on the subject of covering up and not accepting its losses is well known. More than 1000 killed in actions (KIA) of the Pak Army were never officially acknowledged by Pakistan after the Kargil war with India in 1999. Since its partition from India, Pakistan continues to experience a security deficit vis-à-vis India, hence would go all out to hide losses suffered to maintain the so called martial dominance over the Indian military.
4# Because the PAF did not want to reveal to the world that an American made F-16 had been used as part of an offensive operation against India on 27 February, voilating end use agreement on many counts, including use of the AIM-120 C-5 AMRAAM air to air missile — which ostensibly had been given to Pakistan to be used against its war on terror. So Maj Gen Ghafoor resorted to lies, that no F-16s were used that day.
5# Because Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor’s trigger happy tweets and the presser in the first six hours post the aerial clash clearly points us towards the ‘truth’ in the information received by him — Who would believe that in today’s digital age with the Pak Army’s superbly networked communications, the head of ISPR would be battling the fog of war while collating reports about IAF POWs from various Pak formations in the Bhimber region of Azad Kashmir — one reported by a Mujahid Battalion near Horan Kotla and the second by a Northern Light Infantry (NLI) Battalion near Sabzkot.
The DG ISPR was lying all through the day — unfortunately himself becoming a victim of a half backed truth.
By the time the shenanigans at the ISPR realised their goof up and said they had only one IAF pilot in their custody, the cat was out of the bag — giving the first tangible lead to the Indian Air Force on the possible sequence of events post downing of the F-16 and the MiG-21.
Analysing the evidence available on the F-16 shooting
Lets take a look at the OSINT info and the evidence that the Indian Air Force has officially revealed on the shooting down of the PAF F-16.
That F-16s engaged with the IAF near Poonch — Naoshera sub sector on 27 February has been proven beyond doubt by the electronic signatures, as well as various video and visual sightings from both sides of the Line ofd Control.
Electromagnetic Evidence on the Air Situation
The IAF’s Phalcon AWACS, which while not on station and not controlling the IAF vs PAF air situation — had adequate radar pick up on the aerial engagement unfolding via its powerful airborne AESA radar. The Phalcon was able to map the large force engagement (LFE) from 10,000 to 40,000 feet, distinguishing and identifying the various PAF fighters taking part through their electromagnetic emissions (radars, navigational equipment and othet active sensors) — duly picked up, processed and analysed by the its powerful Electronic Intelligence (Elint) systems. It identified F-16, JF-17 and Mirage IIIs as part of the PAF package, spread out from north to south J&K on three main axes near the Line of Control in the Azad Kashmir.
The fused radar and Elint signatures accurately depicts the presence in time and space of the F-16’s APG-68 V9 radar signature over Lam valley, along with 4 different blips between 10–15,000 feet.
The data proves beyond doubt — that F-16s were operating against India that day — exposing the lies and contradictions of the DG ISPR, Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor — exposed further by the remains of the AMRAAMmissile found in Naoshera sector by the Indian military. AMRAAM missiles can only be fired by F-16s in the PAF inventory.
The IAF’s PRO and his team displaying part of an AMRAAM missile fired by the PAF F-16s against IAF Su-30MKIs
The IAF’s Integrated Air Command & Control System (IACCS) had initially missed tracking the ingress of these 4 F-16s towards the LOC since they maintained below the radar horizon of the IAF’s ground based radars, picking them only once they approached north of Poonch; where they lay in wait to ambush IAF Su-30MKIs who were being ‘pushed’ towards them by another formation of 4 F-16s north west of Poonch at 40,000 feet. This formation had fired 4–5 AMRAAM missiles at IAF Su-30 MKIs as they approached south of Rajouri.
Having spotted the lower formation of F-16s and seeing that the Su-30MKIs were effectively being checked by the higher formation of F-16s — the IACCS vectored two MiG-21 Bisons to prevent these 4 F-16s from breaking through towards Srinagar — Awantipore. Abhinandan was the lead in this 2 aircraft MiG-21 pair. The approach of the 2 MiG-21s was missed by the F-16s who were busy scanning for the Su-30MKIs, but a Saab 2000 ERIEYE Airborne Early Warning & Control (AEW&C) operating in depth near Islamabad, spotted the MiG-21s over Naoshera, warning the F-16s. The IAF’s gound controller saw the defensive maneuvering of the F-16s, warning the MiGs in turn. While his No 2, who was lagging behind, turned ‘cold’ or away from the F-16s which were going ‘hot’ or facing the MiGs — –Abhinandan chose to ignore this threat and continued towards the F-16s.
Both the IACCS & The Phalcon AWACS registered the radar signature of one MiG-21 piloted by Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman cross the Line of Control and engage a F-16 with a R-73 missile. His call on R/T of a missile launch was monitored by the AWACS. Abhinandan was 8–10 km away from the F-16, which was turning towards him — aiming for a frontal aspect launch with high closing speed between the missile and the incoming F-16. The R-73 is a heat seeking air to air missile with a sensitive, dual band cryogenic cooled seeker with a substantial off-boresight capability. The seeker can see targets up to 40° off the missile’s centreline. Minimum engagement range is about 300 meters, with maximum aerodynamic range of nearly 30 km at altitude.
Abhinandan fired his R-73 well within the range and tracking capabilities of the R-73 missile, with a high closing speed of more than 3500 kmph between the missile and the F-16, which was at 15,000 feet. At those ranges, the missile would have closed into the target in less than 20 seconds, its proximity fuse activating the 7.4 kg warhead to explode and engulf the F-16 in frontal quarters with flame and high velocity shrapnel — in all probability grievously injuring the pilot. The ‘splashed’ F-16 fell towards the earth post that, with the pilot ejecting out of the stricken aircraft as reported by eyewitnesses.
The F-16 ‘kill’ was noticed by the Phalcon’s radar — with the said blip vanishing from the radar scope in the radar picture processed — 8 seconds after the previous one, which had shown the blip in place.
This is the first hard evidence on the F-16 kill based on a concrete electronic signature recordings.
The same is corroborated by a Thales GS-100 Low Level Targeting Radar (LLTR) deployed in that area and integrated into the IACCS, The GS-100 is an AESA radar with low-altitude search capability that can track targets up to 180 km range with high accuracy. The post event milking out of radar data from the GS-100 clearly has shown the MiG-21 closing into the F-16s, which were higher between 15–25,00 feet.
The overlapping time and place of the missile launch and the subsequent ‘splash’ with the blip vanishing is registered very accurately, matching with the Phalcon data. This is the second hard evidence on the F-16 kill.
The same LLTR had clearly registered a PAF F-16 maneuvering towards Abhinandan’s MiG-21, as he turned northwards post his missile launch. Guided by the Saab ERIEYE, it was a classic Type III converting into a Type IV interception by the F-16 — which fired and an AMRAAM to shoot down the IAF MiG-21. The LLTR noticed the MiG-21 blip vanishing after nearly a minute post the F-16 kill, matching with the account from Abhinandan’s debrief post his repatriation back to India.
Visual Sighting and Plotting by Indian Army
The air battle was visible in great details, on both sides of the Line of control, thanks to the contrails formed at the altitudes where the jets were operating on most occasions.
The ensuing air combat as viewed from the Pakistani side of line of control
As the F-16 fell to the ground after being hit by the MiG-21, its downward trajectory with parachutes in proximity, was recorded by at least 2 different geographically apart Indian Army posts, which accurately estimated that the wreckage would have fallen 7–8 km in Azad Kashmir close to Sabzkot in Bhimber.
About 40–50 seconds later, the same army posts noticed and tracked Abhinandan’s MiG-21 going down and his ejection in general area Tandar 6–7 km in Azad Kashmir, which through OSINT is close to the village of Horan Kotla where the wreckage was seen vividly on social media.
The sightings and the time of the aircraft (and parachutes), match up with the electronic signatures from both the AWACS and the LLTR.
This is irrefutable proof of the F-16 being shot down by the MiG-21.
Post this, radio transmission picked up by the Indian military around 1145H shows Pakistan soldiers from Northern Light Infantry talking about two ‘parinda‘ (aircraft) and two ‘parinde wale‘ (pilots), having bagged one in their custody.
While the first parachute was seen in General Area Sabzkot, the second parachute was spotted in General Area Tandar. The distance between the two locations of the F-16 and MiG-21 wreckage is about 6–7 kms.
In a damning intercept at 1242H, a soldier of 7 Northern Light Infantry battalion, Tandar area, blatantly talks about soldiers from 658 Mujahid battalion having picked up a second pilot — which was Abhinandan as seen with the Mujahid soldiers in the various social media grabs. The NLI soldiers already had one pilot in custody at the time. At 1520 hours, another intercept says that while one pilot is in custody, another has been sent to the military hospital.
This clearly shows that a second pilot was also in the Pak Army custody as also being mentioned in the parralel narrative by the ISPR chief.
So if one was Abhinandan with the Mujahids, who was the second pilot with the NLI battalion — who can be none other than the F-16 pilot!
Besides the initial video of locals who said two pilots were caught, the sighting by the Indian army and videos showing two parachutes coming down — all indicate that a Pakistan jet was shot down.
A case of two wreckages and three parachutes: OSINT data analysis
After sifting through a large volume of social media videos, images and posts — some very interesting OSINT data emerges. With over 10 different videos of the aerial engagement and the subsequent aircraft crashing into the ground accessed, there are at least two videos which show two different aircraft falling towards the ground. These can be distinguished by their rapidly falling trajectories towards the ground and the vapour trails created in the skies.
Clearly two different aircraft have crashed in the Bhimber region, Azad Kashmir on the 27th of February.
There were at least 2 different aircraft spotted crashing to the ground in Azad Kashmir on 27 February
A detailed analysis of Abhinandan’s crash site by geospatial experts and eyewitness accounts places it near the village of Horan Kotla in Tandar area. Working backwards from the location of the MiG-21 wreckage, one can plot the approximate area where the F-16 wreckage might have fallen.
After the tirade of videos on the MiG-21 wreckage surfacing on the social media, there was an initial rush to brand the Mig-21’s R-25 engine, as seen in the wreckage — as the F-16’s General Electric Engine. However, it petered down when experts stepped in to debunk these theories.
A part of the R-25 engine at the MiG-21 crash site. Note the Mujahid battalion troops at the location
What is however noteworthy — is the hurry that the Pak Army showed in its attempt to transport and shift pieces of the MiG-21 wreckage from the crash site. This initiative took place around 1500H that and a Twitter video on same reveals a very vital clue.
While loading up the mangled parts at one of the location, Nothern Light Infantry (NLI) soldiers apprear with — what has been identified as a smooth finish panel. The IAF has confirmed that this panel is ‘not’ part of the MiG-21.
The IAF has confirmed that this is NOT a part of a MiG 21
Referring back to the radio intercepts and the photos on social media, the presence of the NLI troops in loading this panel, as compared to the Mujahid troops at the MiG-21 crash site, confirms that, first it was a different location from the Abhinandan’s crash site; and second, the chances of this smooth finish panel being a part of the F-16 are very high.
Another photo was accessed the very same day through social media in the Bhimber region of Azad Kashmir, with the picture clearly showing what appears to be a part of a panel of a F-16 jet.
The grey/ light gray camouflage panel can only be a part of a PAF F-16 aircraft
The grey/ light gray camouflage panel can only be a part of a PAF F-16 aircraft
These two photographs, which somehow escaped the Pak Army’s information clampdown on the F-16 wreckage site — provide ample proof that the PAF F-16 had disintegrated after the R-73 hit and its wreckage was strewn and scattered around the area in the same manner as that of the MiG-21.
Now lets examine the various versions of the videos floating around on the social media of eyewitnesses around the crash sites. Some of these witnesses interviewed — claim to have seen at least three different parachutes. This matches to the sightings by the Indian troops, who saw different parachutes from both the crashes, at different locations in the area. The following key aspects emerge from the comments of the various eyewitness. Lets analyse them for their worth-
1# There were more than one parachute in the sky — Cleary seen in the various video grabs, this adequately indicates that more than one pilot ejected.
2# Pak civilians had apprehended Abhinandan, who tried to escape, but was caught and handed over to the Pak Army — This is documented well with a flurry of ISPR and Pak media videos and images on the social media.
3# Ostensibly, one of the witness claimed that they had apprehended an IAF sikh pilot of the IAF — In all probability, the witness has confused Abhinandan, who was wearing a skull cap under his helmet, which resembles a sikh patka at times. His burly moustache with the patka would have given the impression of him being a Sikh to the eyewitnesses on ground.
4# Many witnesses claim to have seen a parachute with colours of the Indian flag — A very significant detail, which emerged in many videos on the social media. On closer analysis, a startling fact emerges — the colour of the C-9 parachute on the PAF F-16’s ACES ejection seat has four colours — white, orange, jungle green and sandy brown — eaily anyone taking a look at the same will assume it to be an Indian parachute due its uncanny resemblence to the Indian flag.
In all probability, just like they tried to lynch Abhinandan when he landed — the Azad Kashmir civilians have clearly mistaken the F-16 parachute to be an Indian and lynched the possibly injured PAF pilot. Due to extreme injuries, the PAF pillot would have been taken to the Pak Army CMH as briefed by the Maj Gen Ghafoor to all, where he would have passed away die to the wounds sustained. Eyewitness accounts from Azad Kashmir civilians also confirm that the second pilot was taken to a Pak army hospital.
A quick run of an image and size interpolation software comparing the reference C-9 image from above and the image taken from a Pakistani video grab of a parachute landing in the area throws up some interesting results — confirming the view that a F-16 parachute did land near the same time that Abhinandan ejected .
Image interpolation of the reference C-9 image with the screengrab image of a parachute landing suspected to be post the F-16 shoot down
Image interpolation of the reference C-9 image with the screengrab image of a parachute landing suspected to be post the F-16 shoot down
So why didn’t the Pakistanis recognise their own pilot before lynching him?
For this we need to go back in air — at the exact moment when Abhinandan fired his R-73 against the PAF F-16. As per Abhinandan’s debrief after his return, the R-73 missile was fired when the PAF aircraft was turning towards the IAF MiG-21, about to roll out towards him in its frontal quarter. This means when the R-73 missile, based on the massive closing speed of over 3500 kmph, would have reached the calculated range for its proximity fuse to explode the warhead — the PAF jet would be still travelling be towards the explosion.
Let’s try to understand how the R-73 warhead would have exploded — The R-73 has a continuous rod warhead weighing 7.4 kg — which is activated by a proximity fuse when it senses an aircraft in close quarters. When detonated, the high explosive imparts momentum to the rods, thrusting them outward in an expanding circle. The pressure wave from the explosive acts evenly on the rods over their length. The rods are sufficiently soft to allow the expansion without breaking the rods or the welded joints, and the detonation velocity is limited to close to 1000 m/s, allowing the rods to bend at these locations instead. At some intermediate point the ring will have a zig-zag (alternating direction) appearance within a cylindrical envelope — Upon ultimate expansion the ring is circular and contained within a plane.
This rapidly expanding ring, when hitting the aircraft, is more effective than an equivalent fragmentation warhead — for the science inclined, the ring’s effectiveness decreasing as 1/R, rather than 1/R2 for fragments.
Portions of the aircraft intercepted by the expanding ring of the continuous rod warhead — will receive a continuous cut through the skin, light structure, underlying cables, hydraulic lines, and other plumbing if present — This may cause a structural failure, or, if not, can be sufficient for defeating the redundancy of aircraft systems. The effect is only pronounced as long as the ring is unbroken, so multiple layers of rods are employed in practical weapons to increase the effective radius.
Expansion of a continuous rod warhead explained
Now when the R-73’s warhead would have exploded and expanded ‘outwards’ ‘towards’ the front at over 1000 m/s, the closing speed of over 3500 kmph would have ensured that the F-16 itself would be coming towards the explosion at 972 m/s.
So if we assume that the proximity fuse would have initiated the explosion in frontal quarters at around 300m — there would hardly be any time between the effect of the explosion taking shape, expanding the flame and shrapnel effect at high velocity outwards; and the closing in F-16 to absorb the explosion effectively. What that means is that most of the frontal section of the F-16 would have flown in through the expanding shockwave, with damage mostly limited due to shrapnel, rather than the explosive effect.
Effect of the R-73 warhead on the incoming F-16
Hence it is clear that the pilot would have survived the heat and flameeffects of the explosion, but would have in all probability been effected by the shrapnel effect of the explosion — grievously injuring his upper body — with the flying helmet preventing fatal injuries, but not able to prevent rampant injuries to the face, neck and chest level.
In contrast, the AMRAAM hit on Abhinandan’s MiG-21 was from right 7 ‘o’ clock position, mostly damaging the rear portion of the MiG-21, as is visible during the post crash analysis of the wreckage.
An example of the effect of a missile hitting from rear quarters, like in the case of the MiG-21
Abhinandan’s aircraft displays signs of a classic missile hit in the rear quarters
So when the PAF F-16 pilot would have ejected, he would in all probability have been injured in the upper torso and facial region. He may or may not have been concious due to his injuries. After his landing in Sabzkot — the Azad Kashmir civilians would not have found the classic traces of PAF flight overalls and livery/ patches, which would have in all probability been ripped off due the high velocity shrapnel — crucially may not have displayed any name indicating he was a Pakistani. They would not have recognised him as a PAF pilot and assesing from the Indian coloured parachute — would have have mobbed him like Abhinandan, before being handed over to the NLI Regiment soldiers, injured and battered.
Though circumstantial, this relevant evidence proves that a Pakistani pilot was apprehended and injured by a mob after landing and would later have been taken to a Military hospital, where he may have died due his injuries as claimed by the ISPR.
Who was the PAF pilot shot down by the IAF?
Interestingly, post the aerial melee over South Western J&K on 27 February, the Pakistani Foreign Minister on 6 March spoke in the parliament about — two PAF pilotswho had shot down IAF aircraft. These pilots were Squadron Leader Hassan Siddiqui and Wing Commander Nauman Ali Khan.
His statement needs to be analysed objectively for the message it conveys — The FM said when interacting with the other members, “One clarification — Bilawal paid tribute to Hassan Siddiqui as he’s absolutely a national hero, But I would like to clarify that two Indian planes were shot down. The other one was shot down by Wg Cdr Nauman Ali Khan,” he added, asking that the second pilot also begiven due credit.”
Why did Bilal Bhutto and other parliamentarians praise the younger Sqn Ldr Hassan Siddiqui? Why was his heroism more significant that Nauman Ali Khan?
Why in the first week of March 2019, did the PAF chiefurgently visit all PAF bases, particularly those housing the F-16 squadrons?
While Wing Commander Nauman Ali Khan was seen being congratulated by the PAF chief, Air Marshal Mujhaid Anwar Khan in a recent PAF propoganda video — why has there been no photo or video released of Sqn Ldr Hassan Siddiqui post the aerial engagement? Why is a fake video being circulated by ISPR affiliates on social media as that of Sqn Ldr Hassan Siddiqui after his return post shooting an IAF aircraft — the person being shown is not Hassan Siddiqui.
PAF chief personally congartulating Wg Cdr Nauman Ali Khan for shooting down an IAF MiG-21
It is my suspicion that Squadron Leader Hassan Siddiqui may be the pilot who was shot down by Wing Commander Abhinandan on 27 February. The fact that his heroism is widely recognised by the Pak parliament and ISPR is covering his presence with fake information, strengthens my theory.
Even if I am wrong, the fact of the matter is that a nameless PAF F-16 fighter pilot has sacrificed his life for Pakistan.
Tragically for the Pakistani nation, with the Pak Army adept at hushing up the deaths of hundreds of its soldiers without as much as batting an eyelid — there is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact — and somewhere in between this blatant game of lies and deception by the ISPR — is a F-16 tail number and a dedicated PAF pilot — both of whom having served Pakistan to the best of their ability; now have had their records unceremoniously wiped out from the face of the earth to serve a wider subterfuge of upholding the morale and image of the Pāk Fizāʾiyah, the pantheon of past glory and Pakistan’s best shot at hitting back at India in these times of turmoil.
The show goes on….
Since the initial flip flops on the day of the F-16 shoot down, the ISPR and the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) have invested a good amount of effort on creating alternative evidence around the MiG-21 wreckage, as well as reaching out to its foreign affiliates and sleepers — to influence foreign publications in questioning the IAF claim of a F-16 shot down at an international level — much in line with its effort to embarrass the IAF’s Balakot strike by the recruiting geospatial domain specialists across the word in its deception.
While any independent viewpoint on the subject is a worth a discussion — The IAF will need to watch out for articles based on false claims and twisted data, such as the recent Foreign Policy media piece by Lara Seligman. Ms Seligman claimed in her post that two US government sources has confirmed to her that ‘no’ F-16s had been lost by the PAF. This was based on a head count of all Pakistani F-16s by the USG as part of the end user compiances post 27 February.
The FP piece created a furore in the Indian media circles due the damning information it contained. While the IAF countered this by showing crystal clear proof in the form of the electronic signatures and call intercepts in its possession on the subject — Indian agencies were clearly seeing the hand of ISPR in this unwarranted spin to the Mig-21 vs F-16 saga.
This was proven to be a lie — as the US Government categorically denied any such F-16 count having taken place at all.
And, lesser the said of Ms Seligman’s downward spiralling credibility post this, the better!
However Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor went ballistic on the subject, claiming that the ISPR and PAF’s denials had been vindicated. It was clear that the narrative besides influencing certain quarters of global information cells, was clearly aimed at placating a domestic audience — which had discreetly started to question the reality on the aerial engagement.
And things are not going well for the ISPR at all — with the DG ISPR having been forced to accept that the PAF had used F-16s in the aerial engagement on 27 February — another of his lies busted in earnest!
Bellowing his last hurrah on the subject — Maj Gen Ghafoor unrolled another tweet insinuating that — no missile was fired by the MiG-21 — with all being recovered at the site of the wreckage.
A closer inspection of the photograph has revealed that the extreme right R-73 missile has been fired — it being the remains of the R-73 used to shoot down the PAF F-16.
Bravo! Another lie exposed!!!
A very thoughtful tweet on the above does full justice to the ISPR’s protracted effort to keep up the disinformation campaign against India –
Lies will take the ISPR only as far; as mentioned earlier — the occassionalslip between the cup and the lip, can cost a lot!
There is more than ample evidence that Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman piloting a MiG-21 jet — has shot down a PAF F-16.
The onus is on Pakistan to prove that they have not lost any aircraft.
As the well known Aviation historian Jagan Pillariseti states — ‘Pak Once Disproved Indian Kill Claims By Flaunting All Its Mirages, Why Not Now With F-16s?’
Let’s wait for the next move by ISPR on the subject……!!!
The author is an former fighter pilot with extensive experience on the Mirage 2000 and MiG 21 aircraft of the IAF. He has seen combat in the 1999 Indo Pak Kargil conflict. He writes on military subjects and his article on the Air War in Syria, won the best military aviation submission at the 2017 Paris Airshow.
This article was originally published on Medium. Read the original article here.
Check out My543, our comprehensive report card of all Lok Sabha MPs.
- 502
Shares
39 COMMENTS SHARE YOUR VIEWS
NEXT STORY
Home Defence
New Delhi: The DRDO has ruled out future anti-satellite (A-SAT) missile tests in the lower earth orbit, but hinted at keeping the options open for possible experiments in higher orbits.
At a press conference Saturday, the Defence Research and Development Organisation also said any decision on weaponisation of space would be taken by the government.
The DRDO said the interceptor used for the 27 March successful A-SAT missile test had the capability to hit targets 1,000 km away, but they had intentionally chosen the target at an altitude of 283 km to prevent creation of space debris.
“The Indian interceptor had the capability to target a satellite at a height of 1,000 km but a low earth satellite was
1 COMMENT SHARE YOUR VIEWS
NEXT STORY
Home Defence
NIA arrests another ‘Jaish operative’ for
New Delhi: The National Investigation Agency Saturday arrested another alleged Jaish-e-Mohammed operative in connection with the terror attack on a CRPF camp in Lethpora, south Kashmir, on 30 December 2017, in which five personnel were killed.
Syed Hilal Andrabi (35), who belongs to Jammu and Kashmir’s Pulwama district, has been sent to police custody for five days after being produced before a special court.
The NIA has now asked the court for Andrabi’s custody to “unearth the larger conspiracy behind this attack”.
“Arrested accused Syed Hilal Andrabi is an active OGW (over-ground worker) of proscribed terrorist organisation Jaish-e-Mohammad (sic). He is a key conspirator who provided logistic support in the form of sheltering the terrorists and conducting reconnaissance of the CRPF group centre, Lethpora, before the
Copyright © 2019 Printline Media Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved.
