Indian Economy-News & Updates

[arp2041]

tereko kaha na har roj medicine lia kar

Saley aaj ki FIELD REPORT kaha hai

 

[kaykay]

What you just stated doesn't make any mathematical or statistical sense. It is not possible.



You need to read up on the 'doubling rate'.

If you managed to double your GDP in 7 years growing at 4-5%, are you telling me you will double your GDP in 3-4 years at 8%? It is not possible. What could be possible is that there was a large shadow/black/informal economy, which existed, but was not recorded by governmental official figures.

I am not saying that we didn't grew beyond 5-6% at all in that 7 years(in fact in 2010 we almost touches 10%) but certainly average was certainly not 8% for that 7 year period. It was more like 6.5%.

 

[Donatello]

I dont know.But 7 years was enough for 1 to 2 trillion journey.In that case if we can maintain a 5% to 6% growth
for next 7 years ,in 2021 we will see a 4trillion growth.
But due to the recovery of global economy a 7% above consistent growth would be possible.Then within 7 years we can see a 5trillion growth.

What you are saying is not possible. Like i said, there must be already existent economy which was previously not recorded by official estimates.

In Pakistan we have the same issue. Economy is expanding at bare 4% but the consumption is expanding much higher. Automobiles, imported goods, food, retail, construction etc. Where is the money coming from? Yes, black/informal money. But since a lot of businesses/individuals under report revenue/income, it is not possible for government to know the exact economy size. For India is a large country of 1.2 billion people which varying levels of corruption and red tape and what not. So it is possible that the black money 10 years somehow turned white. That extortion money, buying shares on the stock exchange. etc.

I am not saying that we didn't grew beyond 5-6% at all in that 7 years(in fact in 2010 we almost touches 10%) but certainly average was certainly not 8% for that 7 year period. It was more like 6.5%.

8% growth per year for FULL 9 years, doubles the economy

So it better be something like this:
8,8,9,7,9,7,10,6,8 so average for 9 years is 8 per year.

I suggest you read up doubling rate. If you've done high school maths, it's not that hard.

I am not saying that we didn't grew beyond 5-6% at all in that 7 years(in fact in 2010 we almost touches 10%) but certainly average was certainly not 8% for that 7 year period. It was more like 6.5%.

Which is why i brought in the topic of Shadow economy.

If Pakistan were to record it's Shadow economy (which by state bank of Pakistan estimates) is 80 % of real recorded GDP, then Pakistan would grow (officially) 80% in a span of that one month or two.

Listen, i have nothing against Indian growth or what. All i am saying is facts. You can read it up. Economics is very interesting in this day and age. But the laws and mathematics don't change, just because India posted 6% growth or 10% growth.

 

[BDforever]

Saley aaj ki FIELD REPORT kaha hai

medicine mein hein... ja kha le

 

[temp1994]

What you just stated doesn't make any mathematical or statistical sense. It is not possible.

That makes a perfect statistical sense. What is lacking here is understanding of economics on your part.

Nominal growth rate of economy = Real growth rate + Inflation rate + % appreciation in currency - % depriciation in currency +/- monetary easing by central bank ( only applicable for reserve currencies ).

Economy could easily double it's value if it is inflating in dollar term ( not in local currency ), even if it has zero growth.

India's real growth rate in past 7 years was close to 6%, but it's inflation rate was close to 9%. It's cumulative growth rate was 14-15% pa. There was some depreciation of Rupee in dollar term for last 1 1/2 years due to depriciating currency, else India would have become $2Tn economy in 2012.

You need to read up on the 'doubling rate'.

If you managed to double your GDP in 7 years growing at 4-5%, are you telling me you will double your GDP in 3-4 years at 8%? It is not possible.

See above.

What could be possible is that there was a large shadow/black/informal economy, which existed, but was not recorded by governmental official figures.

Black/Informal economy is called black economy because it is not counted in official figures.

 

[liall]

Yea inflation helps a lot in increasing the number although people can barely buy more than last year

 

[SrNair]

What you are saying is not possible. Like i said, there must be already existent economy which was previously not recorded by official estimates.

In Pakistan we have the same issue. Economy is expanding at bare 4% but the consumption is expanding much higher. Automobiles, imported goods, food, retail, construction etc. Where is the money coming from? Yes, black/informal money. But since a lot of businesses/individuals under report revenue/income, it is not possible for government to know the exact economy size. For India is a large country of 1.2 billion people which varying levels of corruption and red tape and what not. So it is possible that the black money 10 years somehow turned white. That extortion money, buying shares on the stock exchange. etc.



8% growth per year for FULL 9 years, doubles the economy

So it better be something like this:
8,8,9,7,9,7,10,6,8 so average for 9 years is 8 per year.

I suggest you read up doubling rate. If you've done high school maths, it's not that hard.



Which is why i brought in the topic of Shadow economy.

If Pakistan were to record it's Shadow economy (which by state bank of Pakistan estimates) is 80 % of real recorded GDP, then Pakistan would grow (officially) 80% in a span of that one month or two.

Listen, i have nothing against Indian growth or what. All i am saying is facts. You can read it up. Economics is very interesting in this day and age. But the laws and mathematics don't change, just because India posted 6% growth or 10% growth.

So you are saying this 2 trillion $ amount was already existed corrupt money.I dont think so.If that was the case then why India couldnt maintain this much growth before the 1991.And if that was the case all the nations in this world can release a GDP data by saying they have a larger shadow economy.
Yes we have a shadow economy but that cant challenge our combined economic might.To maintain such a larger black money you should have organised corruption.
AFAIK corruption level is much high in low level govt office
but that corruption cant create a base a larger shadow economy like you mentioned.
And you can check our past few years of GDP data.Our low level growth severly hit our auto mobile sector and also mining.
That means our industrial growth is directly proportional to GDP rate.If we have a Shadow economy like you mentioned tben we could have been a positive growth in industry and consumption even if our GDP reduced.But that is not the case.Only issue now we are facing is counterfeit note that can cause artificial inflation in market and real estate.But that is also now strictly observing by GoI agencies.
Pakistan is entirely different than India.Their main problem is the absence of powrr infrastructure .You cant only blame Shadow economy for that.There is also a thread in here that explaining theft of powrr in Pakistan.

We saw some organised corruption case like 2G.But parties involved in it was almost fried out by SC .And SC also is in process of confirming this.

than

 

[temp1994]

So you are saying this 2 trillion $ amount was already existed corrupt money.I dont think so.If that was the case then why India couldnt maintain this much growth before the 1991.And if that was the case all the nations in this world can release a GDP data by saying they have a larger shadow economy.
Yes we have a shadow economy but that cant challenge our combined economic might.To maintain such a larger black money you should have organised corruption.
AFAIK corruption level is much high in low level govt office
but that corruption cant create a base a larger shadow economy like you mentioned.
And you can check our past few years of GDP data.Our low level growth severly hit our auto mobile sector and also mining.
That means our industrial growth is directly proportional to GDP rate.If we have a Shadow economy like you mentioned tben we could have been a positive growth in industry and consumption even if our GDP reduced.But that is not the case.Only issue now we are facing is counterfeit note that can cause artificial inflation in market and real estate.But that is also now strictly observing by GoI agencies.
Pakistan is entirely different than India.Their main problem is the absence of powrr infrastructure .You cant only blame Shadow economy for that.There is also a thread in here that explaining theft of powrr in Pakistan.

We saw some organised corruption case like 2G.But parties involved in it was almost fried out by SC .And SC also is in process of confirming this.

than

Dude,

It has nothing to do with black money. Black money is not taken into account in these calculations.

He simply didn't knew how growth rate is calculated.

 

[protest]

What you are saying is not possible. Like i said, there must be already existent economy which was previously not recorded by official estimates.

In Pakistan we have the same issue. Economy is expanding at bare 4% but the consumption is expanding much higher. Automobiles, imported goods, food, retail, construction etc. Where is the money coming from? Yes, black/informal money. But since a lot of businesses/individuals under report revenue/income, it is not possible for government to know the exact economy size. For India is a large country of 1.2 billion people which varying levels of corruption and red tape and what not. So it is possible that the black money 10 years somehow turned white. That extortion money, buying shares on the stock exchange. etc.



8% growth per year for FULL 9 years, doubles the economy

So it better be something like this:
8,8,9,7,9,7,10,6,8 so average for 9 years is 8 per year.

I suggest you read up doubling rate. If you've done high school maths, it's not that hard.



Which is why i brought in the topic of Shadow economy.

If Pakistan were to record it's Shadow economy (which by state bank of Pakistan estimates) is 80 % of real recorded GDP, then Pakistan would grow (officially) 80% in a span of that one month or two.

Listen, i have nothing against Indian growth or what. All i am saying is facts. You can read it up. Economics is very interesting in this day and age. But the laws and mathematics don't change, just because India posted 6% growth or 10% growth.

What you quoting is real GDP growth rate but actual GDP growth is calculated by adding Inflation to this.

So nominal GDP growth is real GDP growth plus Inflation.

If India is growing at 8% and inflation is 6% then Indian GDP is growing by 14% year on year

Much better explanation was given by temp1994 above

 

[SrNair]

Dude,

It has nothing to do with black money. Black money is not taken into account in these calculations.

He simply didn't knew how growth rate is calculated.

I know that.And our black money real value is just an exaggeration by our medias.It cant challenge our economy.
But he was rightabout the Pakistan.Due to smaller economy and zero reforms.Pakistan have a huge amount of black money .Most of it is flowing outsideof the nation.Since business environment is pathetic .They dont have any choice.
Their black money and its ownrrs can manipulate anything Pakistan and majority of rich dont pay their tax.But he dont know that is case in India is much different.

 

[Nova2]

At last

We took just 7 years for doubling our GDP and half of it with 4.5 to 5% GDP.
Considering the millions of workforce adding in our economy .We dont have any other choice .GoI is aiming for maximum growth.In one way or another they will keep it higher than7% .period.

Just mat bol yar. we should hv taken a max of 5yrs for doubling the economy, In 2012&13 economy, technically remaind stagnant. In 2011 it ws at $1.880trill fr next 2yrs '12 & '13 it remained around 1.856 &1.876 respectively cos of various resasons ,it is estimated to touch $3trill mark by 2019 by IMF,is bar koi bachodi na ho. Waise our PM once said he wants it to toch $4trill mark by 2020 unke much main ghee aur sakar

 

[The_Sidewinder]

@Donatello
I agree with you, most optimistically we can reach 4 trillion economy by 2025-26, assuming that growth rate continues at 7 to 8% till that period.
Only way to achieve beyond that, through mass export of weapons thus massively increasing forex reserve. But in that regard, India is hopeless atleast in the near future.

 

[Indos]

[quote="anant_s, post: 6263446, member: 141975
But the future predictions are quite bright. Hope we celebrate next milestones soon.
View attachment 118373[/quote]

Old prediction, Indonesia is already been ahead of England in term of GDP (PPP), based on 2013 data

 

[temp1994]

@Donatello
I agree with you, most optimistically we can reach 4 trillion economy by 2025-26, assuming that growth rate continues at 7 to 8% till that period.
Only way to achieve beyond that, through mass export of weapons thus massively increasing forex reserve. But in that regard, India is hopeless atleast in the near future.

Dude,

You are making same mistake in your calculation as dontello was making. ( frankly Economics education as high school level need to improve on both side of the border).

Iff India's real GDP growth rate is 8% ( stated by you ) and India's Inflation rate is 6% ( considered optimum by RBI ) than India's nominal growth rate would be 14%, Given there is no appreciation/depriciation in currency.

In This case India would have close to $8.5 trillion GDP by 2025-26.

At last


Just mat bol yar. we should hv taken a max of 5yrs for doubling the economy, In 2012&13 economy, technically remaind stagnant. In 2011 it ws at $1.880trill fr next 2yrs '12 & '13 it remained around 1.856 &1.876 respectively cos of various resasons ,it is estimated to touch $3trill mark by 2019 by IMF,is bar koi bachodi na ho. Waise our PM once said he wants it to toch $4trill mark by 2020 unke much main ghee aur sakar

Dude,

That was due to depriciation of rupee.

 

[anant_s]

Old prediction, Indonesia is already been ahead of England in term of GDP (PPP), based on 2013 data

Good thing predictions are coming true that fast.