Indian economy going to Hell in a handbasket as more Modi Magic appears

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

lunginomists

 

[Black Tornado]

Obviously we will have economic growth. Our autocratic government survives by delivering economic prosperity (which is visible and we can feel it). Unlike, india where parties win election by demonizing Muslims and doing everything possible to harm Muslims and win hindu votes. Lol...

“Unlike India”, consumption data is enough to puncture tall claims of prosperity. Else nobody is interested in demonising muslims, they win elections on promises they make and fulfill it.

BBS aren't saint but, they aren't as bad as ISS. You folks have changed your GDP calculation method to show economic growth. Lol.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-changes-gdp-calculation-method-1422622762?

We just changed the base year in 2015, something even Bangladesh did recently as well as Pakistan. Pretty normal thing to do so what is absurd here?

 

[SuvarnaTeja]

The best way to defeat poverty is to eliminate the poor.

Modi should seriously think about this option rather than delivering subsidized food, gas and electricity to the poor.

 

[Black Tornado]

India's economy is effed up for more than one reason, all attributable to this fast-talker Nazi populist idiot Modi. Note-bandi was just one in a series of massive eff-ups dreamt up by unqualified idiots like Nirmala-la-la.

Top-down growth doesn't suit 3rd world hovels like Bangladesh and India, but Modi and his great economic minds think they have a first world economy, so Top- down growth is what they focus on. Wrong!

Bangladesh continues to grow because they have an economy based on solid fundamentals of bottom-up growth where things forgotten in India like inclusivity (Dalit employment, anyone?), womens' education, basic health/hygiene and other HDI parameters are focused on. Got to have a strong foundation to build on. Otherwise - close, but no cigar.

You cannot have Shivaji airport next to Dharavi and call India a first world country. Can't have Antilla sitting next to slums and call it "Normal and acceptable".

Slums in Mumbai are being bulldozed into highrise apartments and townships which will house the dwellers in them and improve their lives, something asian tigers next door wouldn’t.


HDI parametres? India’s HDI is more than Bangladesh.

https://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdr2020.pdf

 

[Indos]

Tapering in a time of conflict: Trade and Development Report Update (March 2022)


View attachment 828531

Thanks for the data, I see the UN projection on Indonesia is not different with the Pinoy economist analyst which I have read his poor analyst, really poor analyst, even me as just bachelor in Business can see it.

Nevertheless, recent update on our budget performance in January-February has come up with around 38 % increase on state revenue compared to the same period last year. We can see as well on trade balance projection by Western economists compiled by Reuters in both January and February, Indonesian trade balance performance is always disappointing them on both months, in February for instant they project the trade surplus is only 1 billion USD while the fact that Indonesia can get almost 4 billion USD trade surplus in February AlhamduliLLAH. Very poor projection if we can see the real figure almost 4 times the projection, this is why when the real figure come up, Reuters doesnt put the news on their website ( too embarassed I guess )

I project Indonesia economic growth will likely to get 5.5-5.7 % in 2022 instead of 4.4 % projection by UN.

We can open the thread once the Q1 data is revealed around May 2022

 

[Black Tornado]

Data provided by ISS. Lol...

What’s ISS? Consumption data is available courtesy the brands selling their cars, electronics etc. rest we all know how many cars are sold in BD and India.

Every hindu is.

As you dream

Yep, they promise to harm Muslims...

their manifesto has no mention of your fantasies.

Lol, read the article or at least google about this topic. India changed GDP calculation method not just year rebase...

The rebasing led to a minor decrease of 2.3% in the GDP when the government changed the base year and updated the way it calculates the GDP, quite visible how it must’ve increased India’s GDP on paper to $1000 quadrillion

India's Change In GDP Calculation Method Seems Highly Sensible

There's a little bit of confusion over India's GDP growth statistics at present. The country recently changed the way that it calculates this number and while there are, obviously, the usual teething problems with changing the method by which such a complex number is arrived at the basic change...

www.forbes.com

 

[Destranator]

BBS aren't saint but, they aren't as bad as ISS. You folks have changed your GDP calculation method to show economic growth. Lol.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-changes-gdp-calculation-method-1422622762?

Bingo. I bash BBS day in, day out but that does not mean they are the only dodgy stats agency on the planet and others are better.

A few years ago, the Indians were trying to convince the world that their national poverty line is at RS 32/day. This alone tells you what kind of mindset their government agencies operate with.

 

[jamahir]

Lol..you got hit in the head when you were young? Why don't u have the b*lls to post the full UN GDP forecast post? They reduced the GDP growth forecast for the entire world from 3.6% to 2% due to Ukhraine war.

But isn't India a superpower since 2012 and also the Vishwaguru since January 2021 ( as per Dear Leader Modi's declaration to international leaders then ) ? Additionally, India is still the 6th largest economy in the world as per Capitalist calculations so why does India still have problems ranging from socio-economic hunger to socio-economic suicides to socio-economic human ill health etc ?

India's economy is effed up for more than one reason, all attributable to this fast-talker Nazi populist idiot Modi. Note-bandi was just one in a series of massive eff-ups dreamt up by unqualified idiots like Nirmala-la-la.

As of yesterday Nirmala believes that all Indians are as rich as Modi's friends Ambani and Adani :

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday dismissed the World Inequality Report that termed India as a "poor and very unequal" country. Disregarding the global report as “flawed”, she raised questions about its methodology.

Top-down growth doesn't suit 3rd world hovels like Bangladesh and India, but Modi and his great economic minds think they have a first world economy, so Top- down growth is what they focus on. Wrong!

Bhai, top-down growth economics doesn't work anywhere, whether USA or India. Remember that thread about the homeless in USA ? Unless USA becomes a Communist society those people will never be able to rise above their artificial poverty and never will be able to have regular food and water much less have the same access to any goods and services that USA's millionaires have access to, millionaires and billionaires like Donald Trump or Bill Gates or Larry Ellison or the owners of the casinos of Las Vegas. Similiarly in India.

Well we can agree to disagree, but I don't consider inclusivity fancy or optional. Women and the poor must be members of the workforce. This did work in China and of course the UK and US.

By inclusivity I mean that of education, opportunity and thereby wealth. For the poor, under-educated and of course women.

Value addition per capita is directly related to education. Educated people add more value per unit of time.

If you don't educate your poor than how will you have a well-educated workforce who will add higher quality labor and value for export?

A country cannot survive on low grade labor and price-leader value-addition forever. They will get priced out of the market as soon as salaries go up and become uncompetitive compared to surrounding countries in the same economic tier.

This is the very reason some countries in ASEAN have faced middle income trap.

@Homo Sapiens, @jamahir bhais and brother @Indos would you agree?

Agreed.

“Unlike India”, consumption data is enough to puncture tall claims of prosperity. Else nobody is interested in demonising muslims, they win elections on promises they make and fulfill it.

Promises they make indeed. Then tell Modi to give me my 15 lakhs that he promised in 2014 and tell him also to hurry up on the 100 Smart Cities program within the next six months, a program he promised also in 2014.

Slums in Mumbai are being bulldozed into highrise apartments and townships which will house the dwellers in them and improve their lives, something asian tigers next door wouldn’t.

Highrises are obsolete thinking, a thinking that the America-like cityscape represented modernity, but it is not as if most of India's urban millions who live in highrises currently have become sophisticated, humane and revolutionary. In fact they have become the opposite. To remedy this India should do a few steps including establish townships all over the country including around the big cities like Delhi, Bombay, Bangalore etc. India has enough land to do this. The idea is to combine agriculture, the rural populations, the urban populations and high-tech industries into each of these townships. In this post from last year I wrote how such townships should be arranged and I quote from it ( @DrJekyll, in another thread you wrote on a similar theme ) :

Yes, I have written of this before many times. What we need are satellite townships which are built scientifically and aesthetically, to enable harmonious living and to prevent crime and chaos, all this written into the townships' DNA. Nicely built neighborhoods which have 100x80 foot house plots which have a compulsory garden, a tree ( say lemon ), a comfortable cat shelter and the main house itself being max two storey with the main cat house on the terrace which should also have potted plants. Wide roads which can be places to stand in case of earthquake. Four house plots for every length of road. There should be multiple Vertical Farms in every neighborhood and each farm should have collectivized labor. One shop for groceries, vegetables and processed food items with most of the vegetables coming from the neighborhood's Vertical Farms. WiFi point on every road. A reasonably large clinic. One 3D Printing shop for every three neighborhoods. A nicely built shopping district with malls that include a cinema hall set. The people employed in these Vertical Farms and general Urban Farms, security, maintenance and other high-tech industry. The work places and the shopping and recreation buildings and areas built not in ugly modern glass-facade but in aesthetic and harmonious Greco-Roman, Ancient Egyptian and Islamic architecture. Fountains. Multiple general hospitals with specialized treatment too. Educational institutions which have cross-disciplinary teaching. And yes, the township shouldn't have dogs and in keeping with this thread's theme no privately-owned personal transport vehicles but instead have 30-passenger cyclorotor skybuses and six-passenger cyclorotor skytaxis. There should be cyclorotor-based ambulances which can carry at least three patients with reasonable health systems and cyclorotor-based police vehicles [ For what is a "cyclorotor" you must read the linked post's thread ].

Now we can further discuss what socio-economic and political system the new townships should have.

UNCTAD saw 2021 growth rate at 5% in March 2021.

UNCTAD sees India growth at 5% in 2021

UNCTAD said for the global economy, the overall cost of the crisis has been exorbitant with the brunt of the hit to the global economy being felt in developing countries with limited fiscal space, tightening balance of payments constraints and inadequate international support.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Now they assess the same at 8.3%.

Resident economists and lunginomists should calm their tits.

Lunginomists, is it ? I a Communist by myself am a better socio-economist than all the Hindutvadis put together.

 

[LakeHawk180]

Under the new PLI scheme, the government has identified focus industries and has promised to subsidise local production (for winners) supported by import tariffs. This push towards local production by force reminds me of license raj. Import tariffs may hurt other industries that depend on cheap imports for their production. I hope you can understand the rest.

Individual states cannot really promote industries that are outside the ones that Central government

License raj might be too strong an analogy.
Services industry is really seeming like it’s on autopilot these days. All I see i growth. So maybe it’s not such a bad idea to focus on manufacturing a bit.

When critics say we need to have an independent analysis of PLI, yeah, I agree with that. Decision making is sketchy as hell and I wonder if it’s as effective as intended.

A lot of family businesses and foreign MNCs have revised their investment strategy (positively) to leverage benefits under the scheme. But there’s just no visibility on how it might be affecting SMEs.

 

[Black Tornado]

License raj might be too strong an analogy.
Services industry is really seeming like it’s on autopilot these days. All I see i growth. So maybe it’s not such a bad idea to focus on manufacturing a bit.

When critics say we need to have an independent analysis of PLI, yeah, I agree with that. Decision making is sketchy as hell and I wonder if it’s as effective as intended.

A lot of family businesses and foreign MNCs have revised their investment strategy (positively) to leverage benefits under the scheme. But there’s just no visibility on how it might be affecting SMEs.

It is aimed at increasing localisation and manufacturing of items. Earlier in 5 years $520 bn of production was intended but the commitment received for PLI scheme is overwhelming, so it is going to be more higher than that.

What I’m interested will be in more PLI schemes in ship building and aviation sector in future as we’re among the top largest aviation markets. Recently Akasa Airlines ordered $9bn of aircrafts from Boeing and all of which will be built in USA, except aerospace structures which Boeing manufactures in India and exports it to the assembly lines in USA. Ship building is another potential area where we must boost production through incentives.

 

[LakeHawk180]

It is aimed at increasing localisation and manufacturing of items. Earlier in 5 years $520 bn of production was intended but the commitment received for PLI scheme is overwhelming, so it is going to be more higher than that.

What I’m interested will be in more PLI schemes in ship building and aviation sector in future as we’re among the top largest aviation markets. Recently Akasa Airlines ordered $9bn of aircrafts from Boeing and all of which will be built in USA, except aerospace structures which Boeing manufactures in India and exports it to the assembly lines in USA. Ship building is another potential area where we must boost production through incentives.

Yeah all this is fine. Already we’re looking at small caps becoming mid caps and mid caps becoming large caps. But outside of these, will we see growth of ancillary industries? Will we see growth in SME sector? Most importantly, will it create jobs in the scale we need?

A large segment of our population relies on MSMEs for sustenance. I do sincerely hope this shift in priority isn’t going to end up being a case study on shoving the poor under the carpet.

Personally and professionally, this works for me just as it probably works for most Indians here. But there are other stakeholders to consider.

 

[Arulmozhi Varman]

4.6% is too low and too early to make any estimate on 2022. Global inflation is driving prices crazy. But due to public procurement system and distribution, food inflation can be contained in India to a fair degree. We won't be able to control prices on Tomatoes or Onions or meat for example. But basically food necessities.

Fuel prices are already put on the consumer side. Even by inflation, Indian economy will definitely grow more than 4.5%. The problem is even 6. something won't be enough due to higher inflation.

 

[Black Tornado]

Yeah all this is fine. Already we’re looking at small caps becoming mid caps and mid caps becoming large caps. But outside of these, will we see growth of ancillary industries? Will we see growth in SME sector? Most importantly, will it create jobs in the scale we need?

A large segment of our population relies on MSMEs for sustenance. I do sincerely hope this shift in priority isn’t going to end up being a case study on shoving the poor under the carpet.

Personally and professionally, this works for me just as it probably works for most Indians here. But there are other stakeholders to consider.

It will create domestic supply chains and those will have SMEs and MSMEs as important players. A lot of localisation will directly help the SMEs as they’ll get contracts for supplying components of electronics, automobiles etc.

 

[LakeHawk180]

It will create domestic supply chains and those will have SMEs and MSMEs as important players. A lot of localisation will directly help the SMEs as they’ll get contracts for supplying components of electronics, automobiles etc.

In an ideal situation, yes. Here’s to hoping optimism prevails.

 

[jamahir]

Recently Akasa Airlines ordered $9bn of aircrafts from Boeing and all of which will be built in USA, except aerospace structures which Boeing manufactures in India and exports it to the assembly lines in USA.

What exactly are those "aerospace structures" manufactured in India ? Which isn't an entire aircraft manufactured in India in 2022 ?