Indian Brahmos missle crashes in Mian Channo

[El Sidd]

Indian BrahMos cruise missile which accidentally penetrated into Pakistan was fired from Ambala and not Sirsa as Pak had claimed, thus proving Pak failed to track the missile: Bloomberg News.

Is Bloomberg also joining the joint probe?

 

[DrWatson775]

Indian BrahMos cruise missile which accidentally penetrated into Pakistan was fired from Ambala and not Sirsa as Pak had claimed, thus proving Pak failed to track the missile: Bloomberg News.

Leave it to an Indian to turn this around as a failure of Pakistan...... A nuclear capable hypersonic cruise missile "misfired" and then went on to land in another country.... but in all this there is a failure of Pakistan according to this guy....

Whatever makes you happy; keep on underestimating us.

 

[serenity]

Leave it to an Indian to turn this around as a failure of Pakistan...... A nuclear capable hypersonic cruise missile "misfired" and then went on to land in another country.... but in all this there is a failure of Pakistan according to this guy....

Whatever makes you happy; keep on underestimating us.

Brahmos is supersonic not hypersonic. It doesn't even scratch mach 4 and barely sustains mach 3 in lower altitude flight.

 

[DrWatson775]

I believe india is planning a cold start attack
Facts we have determined

1. The Brahmose land missile system is a version of the anti ship Russian cruise missile

1. As it flys at high altitude to take advantage of its ram jet motor it is very detectable at longer ranges and can be shot down by most Pakistani air Defense systems in service today.the missile was tracked 300 kms (180km in India + Pakistani radar located 200 kms from the border). What this means is Pakistan is able to at least see 400-500 kms inside India!

1. The missile is not very maneuverable as it losses significant fuel/ range with even basic maneuvers are established like a right turn into Pakistan as it “crashed” after 234 kms of flight with NO warhead meaning the system was 200 kg lighter

1. India does not have full control over the missile beyond a certain range and has to rely on pre fed coordinates for attack a lot like most naval weapons. If this were nit the case they would have activated self destruct for the weapon
2. 
   
3. It is clear from this action that Brahmose does not use cameras or satellite communication as is focused much more on pre fed coordinates or glasnos coordinates

1. Brahmose in the Indian service is not nuclear capable and is not governed by Indian strategic command
2. 
   
3. Pakistan defiantly has the ability to shoot this missiles down as the same ly-80 and hq-9p systems are placed on Pakistani and Chinese ships to provide air cover against incoming supersonic cruise missiles like brahmose

1. Pakistani SOPs against a thread are solid. See what most people don’t realize is
   1. In a war India could fire a first salvo to see what systems we use to intercept the missiles and then launch a second strike to take those systems out! Then launch massive air strikes on Pakistani forward bases. To counter this one would guess that Pakistan would attempt to put as many aircraft up as possible as part of the first wave of defenders, prepare a second wave of air defense as they have another 6-8 minutes before the detection of the second strike and thirdly begin preparing long rang strike packages to take out Indian forward air bases this would need to be launched within 1 hour of the strike coordinated with Pakistani Babur cruise missile strikes to weaken Indian air defenses. Babaur has a 800 km range, flies very low and has a nuclear capable payload of 600 kg. Since it uses a turbofan engine it is extremely maneuverable
2. We know india is conducting massive exercises with its best elements of quick strike force.
3. The Indian navy tried to infiltrate a submarine in Pakistani waters
4. Indians were conducting near live attack tests with cruise missiles with targets in Pakistan
5. Indian airborne forces conducted training jumps recently
6. India canceled its large air exercises to Reserve parts
7. India knows that past April the monsoon season will start I,e May , June and July which will make it very difficult for tanks and armored formations to maneuver
8. Pakistani acquisition of major systems like jf-17 block 3 , j-10c , hq-9p hq-16 hq 9b , multiple naval systems inclusive of ships, submarines , new tanks , sh-15 sp artillery and longer ranged rocket artillery are new and require at least a year of familiarization
9. India war time supplies are dwindling as Russia is focused on resupplying its own army first and all the spare factories in Ukraine an alternate source for Russian weapons is no longer available. I estimate the supply of parts for a major operation will be consumed by peace time operations in 3-6 months. Indian has a large military.
10. Modi sees that the next election maybe hard for him unless he can give an actual victory for his people. Inflation numbers and economical factors are not in his favor and as America is embroiled in Europe and may be willing to cut deals with the Chinese in return for favors against resupplying Russia . This would lead to the possibility of allowing China to arm its ally and attack a weak india is too great.
11. Pakistani goverment is distracted due to political issues
12. Insurgent operations via TTP and BLA have increased significantly tieing up Pakistani forces in the north west

What I believed happened
I believe india is conducting a short and quick insertion plan for a short and tactical war against Pakistan. In this regard significant training is being conducted of fast deployment units. To punish Pakistan and take a smaller area of Pakistan To stay within the nuclear threshold but gain concessions. In this process of realistic exercises one missile was launched due to incompetence of the army units in-charge of this . The Indians immediately informed the US which then passed the message to Pakistan and China so no retaliation takes place.

Pakistans response for to follow its SOPs as I would assume they expected a first salvo followed by a second salvo to take out our forward airbases.

I believe india is planning a cold start attack

What I think Pakistan needs to do

1. use the international forums to continually raise the stink on india with allied countries
2. India will not attack Pakistan while the OIC Confrence is in effect. The attack will be either be on or earlier than 23 March or after the 25 of March all the way till end of April.
3. Immediate attention should be put on war preparedness
4. Air Defences should be put on battle alert at the same level as when Rajiv Gandhi threatened war with Pakistan in the late 80s
5. We should conduct our own drills and mobilizations, maybe a large exercise like zarb e momin
6. Close the airspace to all Indian civilian and military traffic and order all AD units to shoot down any incoming threat from India. This will reduce the risk of Pakistan engaging any civilian threats from India.

Your opinion is welcome

K

Spring of 2024 will likely be the time of highest tensions and possibly something happening before Indian elections in May '24.
People have a short memory; any 'victory' now (fake for PR consumption or real) will not have an affect as much as one near the elections.

Add to that the current political troubles and you may well have a more pliable central govt in Pakistan by spring 2024.

And one of the reasons the current no confidence vote and upping the ante is the opposition may want a say in or just want to completely decide the next chief after Bajwa who they firmly believe (right or wrong) will have a say in the next elections. I am not saying this is the endgame but you can see how opportunists waiting for the right moment to harm Pakistan will take advantage of the situation in the spring of '24. Hope I am wrong.

 

[Chak Bamu]

Well the blue eyed boy was not in favor pf releasing Abhinandan so early, it was the army who pushed him to.

I've heard this, but I do not know whether this reflects actual reality or was just political messaging for local consumption. In any case IK-Bajwa combo failed to deter India as can be seen by subsequent events. This was a net loss for Pakistan because we did not push our advantage. When PAF had declared that we will do something at the time & place of our own choice, then anything was fair game, including all of Indian assets & positions - whether in air or on the ground.

I think the major shortcoming was in relation to the Prisoner release. It was unnecessary, is India going to start a Conventional war over it? Unlikely. However, what was on the forefront of decision makers minds was the ability of Pakistan to wage a war in their current position. Unfortunately the Pakistani economy was such that Pakistan would not fare well had a war broken out. With that in mind a decision was made in the face of India shifting its launchers and putting itself on a war footing to instead de-escalate immediately, thus loosing our bargaining chip.

But again, i am not privy to all information nor the contents of those meetings which made the final decision so there could be many more factors at play as well

Pakistan's economy would never be in a position to sustain war with India. This is why opportunities that India hands us in a golden plate are not to be wasted - think nuclear tests in 1998. Pakistan was ready & despite everything Pakistan did become a declared nuclear power. Economy was in shambles even at that time but we (politicians & army) made the right call.

A leader must know when to care for economy and when to prioritize long term strategic objectives. Quality of leadership matters very much.

 

[Chak Bamu]

There were ample data available about Yankhot from Ukraine , and if Pak have to rely on this, then there is serious problem with intelligence in Pak.

And with almost 100% confidence I can , the flight profile the Pakistan showing is not true.

And it is not launched from Sirsa, there is no secret base in Sirsa. Actually it was far beyond from that.

On MKI, I think it is far better for us if Pak establishment believe this.
They really were expecting furball.

Talk is cheap my friend. Brahmos may have been launched from as far away as Andaman Islands for all your claims, but Pakistan was able to track it.

Pakistan probably has good intelligence on all Indian weapon systems. You know how shortcomings of SU-30 MKI came to be known in public sphere? Pakistan leaked it & I have a very solid reference for this. So do not assume too much. Right at this moment, arrogance does not suit Indians; they have just admitted to a major mistake & failure regarding their premiere weapon system.

Hard to play furball when the other cat is running away at top speed. Do you even read what you write?

 

[Sayfullah]

This is a quality post, though I wish formatting was better. I suggest that you use edit function.

There are two ways to look at the scenario:
1. The launch was a bungled affair that spilled beans before even the appetizer. So, in that India's failure is to Pakistan's advantage.
2. The launch was a calculated move to judge Pakistan's reaction for later reference. The missile was fired to deliberately not hit any target as such.

Any analysis would follow either of these options.

In the first case, we are forewarned & Indians would have a harder time executing their plans. The element of surprise is gone to a good extent as far as Brahmos is concerned. Pakistan has gotten data for reference & an idea to update SOPs accordingly.

In the second case, I hope we gave nothing away - no SIGINT, no reaction time, no actual AD assets' deployment, etc... I am glad that we lobbed nothing over the fence either, which would tell them our retaliation plans or even an idea/confirmation of our missiles' performance. Lack of a reaction was the best reaction in this case. Any further adventurism would certainly not be met with a lack of response. India will have to do something else to provoke a response and I think planners on this side must have already gamed alternatives for maximum effectiveness if & when an emergent situation demands.

In both the above cases we seem to have done well. In the bargain we have a stick to beat India with, diplomatically speaking. Any further action from India would be looked at unfavorably by the whole world.

The idea of timing that you have presented is a bit off. There are pre-monsoon rains sometimes in June. These can not be taken as an obstacle whatsoever. Proper Monsoon establishes itself in mid-July. So the window is a bit large here as far as weather is concerned & even the weather may not be a decisive factor.

I also agree with your point about the situation of Russian spare parts. An idea of how Indian weapons procurement works does not inspire confidence in Indian ability for on-time procurement, unless they have good deal of reserves built up. Any conflict that prolongs would be disastrous since it would draw in other powers & would spread to India's disadvantage in more ways than one.

Lastly, we know that Modi's go-to strategy to regain popularity is to target Pakistan to rally his base & get broad support. In cases he tries something like drama of Surgical Strikes, or Balakot Crow affair, Pakistan's response should be disproportionate. Do note that our responses to both of the above did not produce results that proved to have deterred Modi. He sold 26 Feb & 27 Feb as accomplishments despite them being duds. I agree with @MastanKhan when he said that PAF should not have let any SU-30 MKI leave the arena without a missile on its tail. Had we targeted them effectively, Modi could not have hid his failure and therefore would have paid the price - no matter how dim / dumb his supporters are.

I hope PAF stays vigilant & PA stays alert to deal with any misadventure from the East.

I've heard this, but I do not know whether this reflects actual reality or was just political messaging for local consumption. In any case IK-Bajwa combo failed to deter India as can be seen by subsequent events. This was a net loss for Pakistan because we did not push our advantage. When PAF had declared that we will do something at the time & place of our own choice, then anything was fair game, including all of Indian assets & positions - whether in air or on the ground.


Pakistan's economy would never be in a position to sustain war with India. This is why opportunities that India hands us in a golden plate are not to be wasted - think nuclear tests in 1998. Pakistan was ready & despite everything Pakistan did become a declared nuclear power. Economy was in shambles even at that time but we (politicians & army) made the right call.

A leader must know when to care for economy and when to prioritize long term strategic objectives. Quality of leadership matters very much.

Zaid Hamid, everyone criticizes him (and some criticism for the right reasons) but he a lot of times turns out true. He said we should have went full out on loc on 27 Feb and he said Indians were in a though position then.
Now people are saying the same thing he said on the night of 26 Feb.
He said first Brahmos landed in Pakistan and that it was deliberate. People said it after him.

Pakistan always misses perfect opportunities whether it’s 47, 65, 99 or 2019.

 

[Farhan Bohra]

Talk is cheap my friend. Brahmos may have been launched from as far away as Andaman Islands for all your claims, but Pakistan was able to track it.

Pakistan probably has good intelligence on all Indian weapon systems. You know how shortcomings of SU-30 MKI came to be known in public sphere? Pakistan leaked it & I have a very solid reference for this. So do not assume too much. Right at this moment, arrogance does not suit Indians; they have just admitted to a major mistake & failure regarding their premiere weapon system.

Hard to play furball when the other cat is running away at top speed. Do you even read what you write?

Amazing because MKIs never emitted anything or turned on there radars. Because as we know Tarang RWR is not deeply integrated with Bars, and you have to turn off radar for using RWR.

That’s is the shortcoming PAF realised in 2019? That is written in CAG report. They must start reading these literature.

And yes, IAF was expecting furball. That is other thing that there assessment was wrong, and were overestimating PAF’s intentions.

As for BrahMos, I know for sure, even IAF shocked that BrahMos capable of such massive manoeuvre at mach 2.

Thanks to Pakistan, IAF now know new capabilities of BrahMos.

 

[Chak Bamu]

Amazing because MKIs never emitted anything or turned on there radars. Because as we know Tarang RWR is not deeply integrated with Bars, and you have to turn off radar for using RWR.

That’s is the shortcoming PAF realised in 2019? That is written in CAG report. They must start reading these literature.

And yes, IAF was expecting furball. That is other thing that there assessment was wrong, and were overestimating PAF’s intentions.

As for BrahMos, I know for sure, even IAF shocked that BrahMos capable of such massive manoeuvre at mach 2.

Thanks to Pakistan, IAF now know new capabilities of BrahMos.

IAF should shoot Brahmos to the moon. May be they would be surprised by its performance even more

You said this in your earlier post: "And with almost 100% confidence I can , the flight profile the Pakistan showing is not true."

Now you are saying this: "As for BrahMos, I know for sure, even IAF shocked that BrahMos capable of such massive manoeuvre at mach 2." AND "Thanks to Pakistan, IAF now know new capabilities of BrahMos."

So, are you going to feed me pretzel logic to demonstrate how both of the above are correct?

About the fur-ball: How sad for IAF that PAF ignored their expectations for a fur-ball. It must have hurt to have your expectations dashed so badly. Abhi-none-done came in to ask "WHY NO FURBALL?", but got splattered in the face. That was twice as bad, I suppose. May be IAF should send more people with that same question? There will come a point when PAF would not be able to ignore them & shall have to accept invitation to a Fur-Ball. But does IAF know how to dance?

Oh, you are wrong when you say that MKIs never emitted anything. I think MKIs did emit lots of gas & called themselves dodgers or something.

Thanks for the laughs....

 

[Farhan Bohra]

IAF should shoot Brahmos to the moon. May be they would be surprised by its performance even more

You said this in your earlier post: "And with almost 100% confidence I can , the flight profile the Pakistan showing is not true."

Now you are saying this: "As for BrahMos, I know for sure, even IAF shocked that BrahMos capable of such massive manoeuvre at mach 2." AND "Thanks to Pakistan, IAF now know new capabilities of BrahMos."

So, are you going to feed me pretzel logic to demonstrate how both of the above are correct?

Yeah you are right.

About the fur-ball: How sad for IAF that PAF ignored their expectations for a fur-ball. It must have hurt to have your expectations dashed so badly. Abhi-none-done came in to ask "WHY NO FURBALL?", but got splattered in the face. That was twice as bad, I suppose. May be IAF should send more people with that same question? There will come a point when PAF would not be able to ignore them & shall have to accept invitation to a Fur-Ball. But does IAF know how to dance?

Thanks for the laughs....

Indeed, I am pretty sure they updated warplanes after that. They weren’t just expecting that PAF only target LoC but actually Sri Nagar. But they were indeed wrong.

Expect BARCAPs inside Pak territory next time.

 

[Chak Bamu]

Yeah you are right.


Indeed, I am pretty sure they updated warplanes after that. Expect BARCAPs inside Pak territory next time.

As they say in Punjabi "Aa teray Jinn Kaddaan"

 

[Vapnope]

As for BrahMos, I know for sure, even IAF shocked that BrahMos capable of such massive manoeuvre at mach 2.

Indeed because they were so shell shocked that for 24 hours they didn't even speak. Pakistan had to tell them that their missile has landed in Pakistan.

 

[Windjammer]

Amazing because MKIs never emitted anything or turned on there radars. Because as we know Tarang RWR is not deeply integrated with Bars, and you have to turn off radar for using RWR.

That’s is the shortcoming PAF realised in 2019? That is written in CAG report. They must start reading these literature.

And yes, IAF was expecting furball. That is other thing that there assessment was wrong, and were overestimating PAF’s intentions.

As for BrahMos, I know for sure, even IAF shocked that BrahMos capable of such massive manoeuvre at mach 2.

Thanks to Pakistan, IAF now know new capabilities of BrahMos.

Lol, Running with Rabbits, Hunting with Hounds has always been the Indian forte.
Earlier in one of the Indra Danush exercises, when the Typhoon made mincemeat of the MKI, you creatures were putting up same excuses but later after IAF couldn't stop gloating on National TV, the RAF ridiculed your cricket score circus.
And after dozens of tests, if it takes Pakistan to to tell you about your missiles capabilities, then i suggest you keep chewing on these new findings until you choke after another surprise.

 

[TsAr]

I've heard this, but I do not know whether this reflects actual reality or was just political messaging for local consumption. In any case IK-Bajwa combo failed to deter India as can be seen by subsequent events. This was a net loss for Pakistan because we did not push our advantage. When PAF had declared that we will do something at the time & place of our own choice, then anything was fair game, including all of Indian assets & positions - whether in air or on the ground.


Pakistan's economy would never be in a position to sustain war with India. This is why opportunities that India hands us in a golden plate are not to be wasted - think nuclear tests in 1998. Pakistan was ready & despite everything Pakistan did become a declared nuclear power. Economy was in shambles even at that time but we (politicians & army) made the right call.

A leader must know when to care for economy and when to prioritize long term strategic objectives. Quality of leadership matters very much.

I think the decision made at that time was done keeping in view the on ground situation and as per advise from Friendly countries. There were 2 ways to go about it either take out more IAF planes or show restrain, both had pros and cons. Its easier now to talk about what was wrong was right but at that time the decision makers made a choice.

 

[GumNaam]

This is why the PAF waited to shoot the missile down...

Dozens of commercial flights narrowly escaped missile fired by India into Pakistan

ISLAMABAD – A missile accidentally fired from India into Pakistan last week posed serious risk to dozens of commercial flights that passed through its

en.dailypakistan.com.pk