Pakistanis have been going gaga since the Feb 27th incident. It was not a war, just a confrontation like what happens almost everyday at the border. In a confrontation today you can have an a kill, tomorrow we can have an advantage of destroying a bunker or the kill. You can’t call this a victory. Yes downing the MIG 21 & getting the pilot as POW is a moral victory. But if you look at how you reacted even after capturing our pilot in spite of having an upper hand, will tell who was scared & in panic of fighting & escalating.
Even after his capture the Indian Gov.t had a tough stand threatening & dictating Pak Gov.t & establishment to release him immediately or face consequences & you obliged. Releasing the pilot & so quick showed the fear Pakistan was in & that’s our moral victory. Loss of MIG 21 is not a big deal because it is anyway going to be phased out. We lost a Helicopter due to the confrontation. I can accept that as a loss even though you didn’t shoot it down, it’s due to the confrontation. So that’s an economic loss.
The facts is Abhinandan or our MIG 21 crossing over changed the course & the fate of Pakistan. Whether he got over excited to venture into the enemy territory or it was our communication flaws is another debate. But it happened on that day, so luck was on your side on that day. Had he not crossed the LOC on that day, the outcome & losses for Pakistan would have been far far greater. It was our bad luck.
If we had a confrontation with full fleet with exchange of missiles & dog fights between our jets & if you downed our jets - Yes you can call it a victory partially. A full victory is when the enemy surrenders or when your purpose of war is met.. But here we didn’t send even one squadron across, so it was the error of the pilot, where it’s bound to happen. What would happen to a Pakistani jet if it crossed into LOC when you are waiting with your full force other side. It’s a suicide. It’s just Pakistanis trying to pacify each other claiming this a victory, which they have never tasted ever & never will.
In any confrontation where there is ceasefire & no decisive victory, what you look at is the impact of the confrontation. What’s the outcome.
Has India panicked after the war? No. If we have got scared then we will be defensive in our statements & speeches. Has it happened. Will India fear to invade or attack Pakistan again. Do you think it won’t happen again?
Pakistan started all previous wars. Does Pakistan today have the will & guts to start a war with India. No – So your posture now will always be we don’t want war, we are peace lovers, because your Gov.t & establishment knows they cannot win any war with India anymore.
All the previous wars it was Pakistan who was bullying India & imposing casualties & fear, but now it’s India who will impose the same. Pakistan has no choice but to be defensive, because before you used to bully India, volley threats, promote terror or start a war at will as you had a choice run to the international community for ceasefire when you near defeat. India was scared of western isolation & sanctions along with the Chinese threat before, but now India doesn’t fear the west, international community or Chinese.
The biggest victory for India was Pakistani establishment announcing on media, India crossed the international boundary & went back without any response or confrontation. But after the announcement they had to prove to their people they are not cowards, so they brought a full fleet & dropped a bomb in open field just across the LOC. But to Pakistan’s surprise India responded to their attempt to cross LOC immediately. Abhinandan crossed the LOC with an outdated jet. That was your luck
Now coming to the result of this confrontation for Pakistan
Last time the surgical strikes was in LOC, so you could get away by rejecting we didn’t enter the territory. But this time we crossed international boundary, just to prove a point to see if you can reject it. If you don’t announce it, you are putting yourself to risk for future similar incursions freely by India. You had to no choice but to announce it immediately. So this “Indians are cowards” manjan won’t sell anymore with your public. Victory for India.
Pakistan was scared to escalate to a full fledged war. Victory for India
After this bold move, Pakistan in future will be scared to do any Mumbai kind of cowardly attack. India has no more worry or fear for such attacks. Our radars, coast guards, BSF & intelligence was always in extreme pressure to be vigilant, not to miss out on any ploy plotted from across the border. So now it’s an advantage for India, if Pakistan does any such kind of attack, we have the reason & license to invade & attack Pakistan.
So the Mullah’s like Hafeez Saeed, Mullah Omar, Syed Salahuddin will become irrelevant. They won’t be able to plan or execute any terror attack in future. We have given an extra head ache for your Govt & establishment to monitor your own terrorists they don’t plot any attack on India as we will be waiting for such a mistake to be committed by Pakistan. The fear has reversed now for Pakistani people & establishment. Victory for India.
Pakistan is talking claiming there can be another attack before election. This thread itself for eg; is the result of the fear. We have put you on back foot & continuous vigil & agony. This fear will continue even after election. Victory for India
We are making you spend on troop deployment, arms & equipment draining your reserves, which is what India wants. India can afford escalation not Pakistan. As long as cost of Military expenditure, LOC clashes increase, it will keep eating into your developmental funds, pushing your economy lower & lower. Victory for India
We are pushing you more & more into Chinese dependence, as a full fledged war means elimination of Pakistan. You would need China for counter weapons, intelligence & satellite data, for which they will ask you to give access to your territory & other economic benefits. You will slowly lose all your voice, freedom to take decisions & most importantly the power with China. You won’t be able to enforce your laws & decisions on your own land. There will be a day soon where your Gov.t & Military will take full orders making you a bonded labor & thorough slave of China. Victory for India.
As long as these above atmosphere prevails, there will be no development & businesses taken over by China one by one. Local businesses are further going to perish gravely affecting cost of living, increasing unemployment, trade deficit & debts. This is the perfect ingredient for instability, collapse of government & political turmoil. This will increase your crime rate, political, regional & ethnic clashes eventually leading to economic collapse & breakup of the country.
You can see it in your increase in costs for necessities, Rupee struggling to even hold at one level, forget strengthening. Except for loans you have not got any investments so far. Everything is big talks & claims, nothing in reality. So as debts & deficits start putting pressure, your Rupee is further going to tumble leading to hyperinflation & increase in further cost of basic necessities.
Such threads & discussions will give you short term happiness & verbal victory. Your real victory will only be after you decide to surrender to India & accept all its terms. You will able to grow like BD. If not distance will grow not only with India but with Afghanistan, Iran, Israel & others.
And my common sense says, there won’t be any attack or incursions before election or near future at least for a year or two. But yes our soldiers at the border are starving, scared & cowards, so the LOC will remain hot with sniping, shelling & violations continuously as Indians are scared of dying.