India Today Mood of the Nation poll: PM Modi's political invincibility continues

[jaunty]

Err... no, it does. Ask any investor in core sectors. BSE/NSE is at all time high. Most Large caps are growing creating quality jobs and strengthening the base of the economy. Indicators from Forbes, WSJ, Nomura all say that by 2018, India would be at the threshold of quantum leap in terms of paradigm shift in economic indicators. After decades, inflation is well under control. Read S&P's forecast for 2017-22 for India available at Moneycontrol

Regarding job creation, its not as if Modi will start a company from scratch and give employment to all unemployed youth. YoY, India's core sectors of Energy, Aviation, Mining, Steel, Electronics (except IT which has shown -ve growth) all have created more jobs. Agreed the pace with which it should have been is nowhere near. But with Make in india and FDI infusion in last few years, by 2018/19 the same will bear fruit (refer the S&P report).

Stock market is one of the many indicators. Stock market fluctuates based on global liquidity too. Heck Pakistan has one of the best performing stock markets in Asia. But when you go down to the real indicators, like core sector growth, job growth, production growth, export growth etc it's not really doing 7.2% level good. In 2015 when they changed the base year, GDP for 2013-14 jumped from earlier 4.7% to 6.9% overnight. You can draw your own conclusions from that. I'm not saying the current GDP numbers are wrong, I have no expertise to make that comment but on the ground level things are not that pretty.

what you and ashok321 of the world do not realize the fire is directed at the opposition

lol that guys is probably a false flag, don't equate me with that guy thanks

 

[ito]

what you and ashok321 of the world do not realize the fire is directed at the opposition

ashok321 is a false flagger while jaunty is not.

 

[Tridibans]

ashok321 is a false flagger while jaunty is not.

Jaunty has been on PDF since years and is one of the very few quality posters from India. While Ashok321 is a nutcase from across the border who initially tried to convince all that he is an AAP member, then became a Congress supporter and now since India - China hostilities, failed to conceal his love and cheerleading for his true masters

The guy wants China to invade India and break us into separate states only to prove Modi is coward! I mean WTF

 

[wiseone2]

ashok321 is a false flagger while jaunty is not.

sorry for grouping them

 

[Tridibans]

Stock market is one of the many indicators. Stock market fluctuates based on global liquidity too. Heck Pakistan has one of the best performing stock markets in Asia. But when you go down to the real indicators, like core sector growth, job growth, production growth, export growth etc it's not really doing 7.2% level good. In 2015 when they changed the base year, GDP for 2013-14 jumped from earlier 4.7% to 6.9% overnight. You can draw your own conclusions from that. I'm not saying the current GDP numbers are wrong, I have no expertise to make that comment but on the ground level things are not that pretty.



lol that guys is probably a false flag, don't equate me with that guy thanks

Well its not only about GDP growth. Look at Repo rates and lending rates. I work for a bank and I can tell you that the loans are going to be even cheaper than it is now. Few years back, 8% Home Loan was unheard of.

Similarly, look at FDI figures and the sectors of its infusion. Unlike 2010-11, most FDI is into making mfg units employing Indian staff. Eg VW unit in Pune, Foxconn in AP, Aviation investments by SIA group in Vistara, TATA-Air Asia foray, etc, etc.

 

[lastofthepatriots]

I'm surprised Modi has not created a Pakistani false flag attack. I'm guessing it will come towards the end of his tenure. @DESERT FIGHTER @Rafi

 

[jaunty]

Well its not only about GDP growth. Look at Repo rates and lending rates. I work for a bank and I can tell you that the loans are going to be even cheaper than it is now. Few years back, 8% Home Loan was unheard of.

Similarly, look at FDI figures and the sectors of its infusion. Unlike 2010-11, most FDI is into making mfg units employing Indian staff. Eg VW unit in Pune, Foxconn in AP, Aviation investments by SIA group in Vistara, TATA-Air Asia foray, etc, etc.

Hardly substantive,

 

[Tridibans]

Hardly substantive,

I think you have not been able to comprehend the graph properly.

Let me help you, the co-ordinates in the graph are monthly data, for a full year (for 12 months), India's all time high FDI figures were in 2016-17 at 60 billion USD

http://www.hindustantimes.com/busin...-in-2016-17/story-7a8pt2u7e8IJttptDQcwhO.html

https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/Data_Overseas_Investment.aspx

Refer to this and click to compare month (2017 v 2016 v 2015 etc) and get a complete view. The valleys in your graph were larger in 2010-12 as the FDI figures fluctuated within months. Now it has more or less stabilised. If you even compare FII figures, the data is more contrasting.

Not only that, today (like never before under Congress), India is amongst the top 5 favourable destinations for FDI and overall rank is 9.

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/78...h-position-on-FDI-inflow-list-US-retains.html

I'm surprised Modi has not created a Pakistani false flag attack. I'm guessing it will come towards the end of his tenure. @DESERT FIGHTER @Rafi

Please don't destroy this thread. You guys can hope as much as you want, there won't be any war between India and China/Pak in next 50 years.

 

[jaunty]

I think you have not been able to comprehend the graph properly.

Let me help you, the co-ordinates in the graph are monthly data, for a full year (for 12 months), India's all time high FDI figures were in 2016-17 at 60 billion USD

http://www.hindustantimes.com/busin...-in-2016-17/story-7a8pt2u7e8IJttptDQcwhO.html

https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/Data_Overseas_Investment.aspx

Refer to this and click to compare month (2017 v 2016 v 2015 etc) and get a complete view. The valleys in your graph were larger in 2010-12 as the FDI figures fluctuated within months. Now it has more or less stabilised. If you even compare FII figures, the data is more contrasting.

Not only that, today (like never before under Congress), India is amongst the top 5 favourable destinations for FDI and overall rank is 9.

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/78...h-position-on-FDI-inflow-list-US-retains.html



Please don't destroy this thread. You guys can hope as much as you want, there won't be any war between India and China/Pak in next 50 years.

I'm fully aware that it's monthly data. But if you consider the fact that post 2008 there was a massive global recession, and all the major western economies in the world took several years to stabilize, it's not a significant change. The global economy is doing better now compared to a few years ago, so naturally FDI would increase slightly as a result. But yes, I'd say that FDI trend is at least positive.

To illustrate my earlier point, how Modi's pet media is on a mission to distract the public from govt's failures, this is the template of debates in India. This is what India is debating every single day.

 

[Tridibans]

I'm fully aware that it's monthly data. But if you consider the fact that post 2008 there was a massive global recession, and all the major western economies in the world took several years to stabilize, it's not a significant change. The global economy is doing better now compared to a few years ago, so naturally FDI would increase slightly as a result. But yes, I'd say that FDI trend is at least positive.

To illustrate my earlier point, how Modi's pet media is on a mission to distract the public from govt's failures, this is the template of debates in India. This is what India is debating every single day.

China was growing at 10 % all those years and India was stuck at 6%. Now realise that even China is facing issues. So is most Euro countries (UK with brexit, Turkey with Instability, etc.). Look at Brasil and Russia. Among the BRICS, only India is standing and somewhat China.

During UPA-2, there were talks that India will be out of the league. Now, India is well ahead of the pack. Brazil and Russia even had recession.

 

[jaunty]

China was growing at 10 % all those years and India was stuck at 6%. Now realise that even China is facing issues. So is most Euro countries (UK with brexit, Turkey with Instability, etc.). Look at Brasil and Russia. Among the BRICS, only India is standing and somewhat China.

During UPA-2, there were talks that India will be out of the league. Now, India is well ahead of the pack. Brazil and Russia even had recession.

Have you seen China's volume? It's not just about the percentage point. China can't keep on growing at 10% forever, they had to slow down a bit at some point but in terms of pure volume they're still way ahead. Brazil and Russia's recession is not a positive thing on India, is it? They have their own issues. If you look at Western economies, there has been a considerable increase in FDI in the last couple of years in most of the major countries. The UK for example is doing extraordinarily well. So this slight increase in FDI is not highly significant. It's merely following the global trend. A highly significant increase was UPA I, and it was performing at a historically high level till the recession in 2008.

In any case, as someone who works at a Bank, do you think the following credit growth trend is healthy and indicative of an economy growing at over 7%? Admittedly this data doesn't include non-banking debt market but even then this trend is actually quite worrisome.

 

[Tridibans]

Have you seen China's volume? It's not just about the percentage point. China can't keep on growing at 10% forever, they had to slow down a bit at some point but in terms of pure volume they're still way ahead. Brazil and Russia's recession is not a positive thing on India, is it? They have their own issues. If you look at Western economies, there has been a considerable increase in FDI in the last couple of years in most of the major countries. The UK for example is doing extraordinarily well. So this slight increase in FDI is not highly significant. It's merely following the global trend. A highly significant increase was UPA I, and it was performing at a historically high level till the recession in 2008.

In any case, as someone who works at a Bank, do you think the following credit growth trend is healthy and indicative of an economy growing at over 7%? Admittedly this data doesn't include non-banking debt market but even then this trend is actually quite worrisome.

So swap China with India. India should have grown by 10 % in 2004-14. Not only our volume was low, so was the key growth indicators. Corruption, red tape, apathy made us crawl at about 6-7%.

After demonitisation, most including you said India will slow down to 3-4%. Look where it is today. Inflaton is below 5% since two years unlike in UPA2. CAD is umder control (though much needs to be done). All these when rest of the world is struggling.

 

[jaunty]

After demonitisation, most including you said India will slow down to 3-4%

Where did I make such a prediction? Demonetization was a worthless exercise which yielded hardly anything for the disruption and pain it caused. I stand by that statement. Don't put words or in this case numbers in my mouth.

Funny how you conveniently ignored all the negatives I raised, no comment on the historically low credit growth?

So swap China with India. India should have grown by 10 % in 2004-14. Not only our volume was low, so was the key growth indicators. Corruption, red tape, apathy made us crawl at about 6-7%.

Even as a critic, you'd agree that India was doing quite well till 2008-09, almost all the numbers prove it. But yes UPA 2 was bad, they made bad policies like retroactive taxation and they were duly punished for that. But in my humble opinion we aren't doing any better than UPA 2 now. If you calculate the GDP numbers using the old series, it would most likely come down to UPA 2 level. I mean we have direct proof of that. 2013-14 jumped from 4.7 to 6.9 just because of the change of the base year. It won't be much different now.

CAD is umder control

Does it have anything to do with low oil prices?

 

[Acknowledge]

After 3 years of Modi govt, I consider Modi to be one of the worst things that has happened to India. Despite all the corruptions, one positive thing about UPA II was that perhaps for the first time since independence a govt was held accountable for its misdeeds. The media was constantly on their case, there was huge public outcry, there was a working RTI system, and they were reduced to 44 seats in the following elections as a result. Now we have lost all of those in hero worshiping. Let's be honest, Modi's 3 years have been nothing but a huge disappointment in terms of governance. Economy is stagnant, job-growth is negligible to negative, industrial production is in shambles, export has actually decreased, national security has worsened, Kashmir militancy has gone up, and even diplomatically we aren't better off than we were before despite Modi's numerous paid vacations abroad. Heck we don't even have a full-time defense minister now. And to distract the masses from his failures, we now have Modi's pet dogs in the media feeding the masses with his propaganda. He will surely win the 2019 elections with absolute majority but when we look back at Modi's tenure 20 years from now, we'd realize what a massive clusterfuck it actually was.

I disagree on the economy part.

Most people donot realize that Congress left the economy in much worse condition that appeared on the outside. Not only was the treasury practically empty, it also left a declining sectoral economy.

Modi is not a magician (despite his claims and many supporters feeling so). He is doing all the right things that could be done. He cannot magically revive the economy, he can fix the fundamentals so that all the right conditions are there for growth to happen organically.

The three things that needed to be done to fix the economy:
1. Auction natural resources instead of allocating them - done
2. Enhance Ease of Doing Business - each year Govt is making it easier to open companies and close them.
3. Bankruptcy act - done
4. Aadhar act - needed to ensure stoppage in leaks of welfare
5. GST - needed to power the next growth phase of our economy by reducing economic barriers between states - done


All the economic binging of the corporates in the last decade made them unsustainably debt heavy. They cant recover easily without bailouts - that this govt is unwilling to provide.
The Banks are neck deep with NPA's. That cannot be resolved by wishing them away, it takes time. For example, the new bankruptcy act has been notified, now it is going to be stress tested against the system and courts. It will take atleast a couple of more years for it to become smooth and predictable.

And NPAs will take atleast 2-3 years to get resolved, that is how long the corporates will also take to recover.

Modi has done all the right things wrt the economy, now it will take time for these things to take root and show results. There is no escaping this. India(Indian economy) is paying for its past sins. What is being and has been done by Modi will take time to show fruits.

Sadly, a majority of people will not get this - everybody wants instant results - yes 3 years is also an instant when it comes to bringing a country and structurally overhauling its economic bedrock which had been damaged by Congress.

There are some things that Modi has not done which is needed by economy - due to political costs of doing it but they are as critical as GST or Bankruptcy Act were:

1. Labor reforms - there is no escaping it. We have possibly the worlds worst labour laws which ensure that small factories donot expand to become bigger factories, small businesses stay small and not hire more people to expand.

All in the name of our fake 'socialism'. We need to dump all our labor laws to be able to grow in employement.

2. Land Reforms - not just acquisition, but the whole hog of land leasing reforms.

3. CA reforms - we need an independent regulator that debars CA's when the companies file wrong returns. Currently this entire profession is geared to help people do illegal acts. We have self regulation in this industry right now. Its like asking real estate companies to become their own regulators or mutual fund industry to become the financial regulator.

@jaunty , I edited my post. Kindly go through it again.

 

[jaunty]

I disagree on the economy part.

Most people donot realize that Congress left the economy in much worse condition that appeared on the outside. Not only was the treasury practically empty, it also left a declining sectoral economy.

Modi is not a magician (despite his claims and many supporters feeling so). He is doing all the right things that could be done. He cannot magically revive the economy, he can fix the fundamentals so that all the right conditions are there for growth to happen organically.

The three things that needed to be done to fix the economy:
1. Auction natural resources instead of allocating them - done
2. Enhance Ease of Doing Business - each year Govt is making it easier to open companies and close them.
3. Bankruptcy act - done
4. Aadhar act - needed to ensure stoppage in leaks of welfare
5. GST - needed to power the next growth phase of our economy by reducing economic barriers between states - done


All the economic binging of the corporates in the last decade made them unsustainably debt heavy. They cant recover easily without bailouts - that this govt is unwilling to provide.
The Banks are neck deep with NPA's. That cannot be resolved by wishing them away, it takes time. For example, the new bankruptcy act has been notified, now it is going to be stress tested against the system and courts. It will take atleast a couple of more years for it to become smooth and predictable.

And NPAs will take atleast 2-3 years to get resolved, that is how long the corporates will also take to recover.

Modi has done all the right things wrt the economy, now it will take time for these things to take root and show results. There is no escaping this. India(Indian economy) is paying for its past sins. What is being and has been done by Modi will take time to show fruits.

Sadly, a majority of people will not get this - everybody wants instant results - yes 3 years is also an instant when it comes to bringing a country and structurally overhauling its economic bedrock which had been damaged by Congress.

Good post and I admire your optimism and hope that you're right. I'm not so optimistic myself. I find it hard to trust anything that comes out of this govt. I have never seen a govt that try to distract people like this govt has done. Even Modi himself tried to misled people with unsubstantiated numbers in his 15th Aug speech. IMO Modi govt scores high on hype and publicity and low on substance. But they will be here for at least 10 years so for the nation's sake I hope that my apprehensions are unfounded. And no I wasn't expecting any magic, in fact I am quite positive that after his election I asked the members here not to expect any magic. But overall, I am not yet convinced that we're going in the right direction. But let's see.

@Acknowledge How do you trust a govt that peddles such BS every single day? Everyday they claim such blatant lies and make sure it reached out to millions through whatsapp. Of course, majority of the media are busy discussing pressing issues like, Hindu, Muslim, Cow, triple talaq, nationalism, secularism every single day. As a rule of thumb, anything that comes out of this govt needs to be vetted and verified a few times before accepting it as a fact. I don't think we have had this problem before. Just a few mins ago,