India third largest economy by 2028: CEBR

[Beidou2020]

By 2028 I guarantee you that India will still be around the 8th or 9th largest economy. Indian growth story is falling apart as high inflation evaporates all the wealth and the structural flaws only gets worse.

 

[waz]

Some very bold estimates and assertions being made. The UK outlook is not logical. The demographics trend is being driven by high birth rates amongst poorly skilled immigrants who offer nothing but a cheap disposable workforce, and will most certainly not increase productivity or innovation. Two things which the UK lags behind Germany. The UK does have some high tech industries in the form of IT, telecoms, defence, aerospace etc, but the government certainly does not give the much needed incentives and finance needed for them to bridge the gap in manufacturing loss the UK has suffered in the last 30 years. That's why we have seen a negative BOP deficit since the late 90's. The UK also faces a very serious Scottish referendum.

Other issues such as UK falling standards in education (see falling PISA scores) will only impede such predictions mentioned in the article.

 

[Jade]

Some very bold estimates and assertions being made. The UK outlook is not logical. The demographics trend is being driven by high birth rates amongst poorly skilled immigrants who offer nothing but a cheap disposable workforce, and will most certainly not increase productivity or innovation. Two things which the UK lags behind Germany. The UK does have some high tech industries in the form of IT, telecoms, defence, aerospace etc, but the government certainly does not give the much needed incentives and finance needed for them to bridge the gap in manufacturing loss the UK has suffered in the last 30 years. That's why we have seen a negative BOP deficit since the late 90's. The UK also faces a very serious Scottish referendum.

Other issues such as UK falling standards in education (see falling PISA scores) will only impede such predictions mentioned in the article.

UK has robust telecoms and defence Industry. The demographics calculation are based on immigration fuelled by UK's world class education institutions. And PISA is useless exams and tell nothing. Anybody can tamper PISA score just as China does.

 

[waz]

UK has robust telecoms and defence Industry. The demographics calculation are based on immigration fuelled by UK's world class education institutions. And PISA is useless exams and tell nothing. Anybody can tamper PISA score just as China does.

Agreed with the first part. The percentage of folks who stay on, after studying at the UK's prestigious HE institutes do not constitute the demographic "advantage" they talk of. These are mainly low skilled workers from the eastern end of the EU and other states.

Do you also have evidence for the major PISA tapering by the Chinese? Apart from using Shanghai as the Chinese representative.
As for the tests are useless, according to whom? Looking at the ranking trend with each nation, and their corresponding HDI scores, economic growth figures and other measures of prosperity there are strong correlations between success at PISA and a successful country.

 

[Fattyacids]

UK has robust telecoms and defence Industry. The demographics calculation are based on immigration fuelled by UK's world class education institutions. And PISA is useless exams and tell nothing. Anybody can tamper PISA score just as China does.

ALL OECD countries take PISA. Are these countries useless? India chicken out after coming in 2nd last, so Indians think PISA is useless. But is India better than any of these countries in social, economics and development indicators?

How did China tamper PISA?? Because Shanghai represented China??
When India last participated in PISA, it sent the two states with highest GER enrollment, Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh. Why didn't india send poorer states like Bihar? Why didn't the US send backwater states like Alaska or Alabama? How exactly is China doing anything different from other big countries?

 

[Speeder 2]

Let alone getting close to Germany, UK's position in relation to German economy would be far weaker in 15 years time.

And India? Don't make me laugh. One thing is almost certain that India would still have half of its population stunted due to hunger, with the other half earning not much more than 2 bucks a day in 2028.

If India vs China today is like Mexico vs USA, then in 2028 India vs China would be like Sub Sahara Africa Vs USA.

 

[UKBengali]

You're forgetting that the conditions in which UK flourished are vanishing. India and China had nationalized banks 20 yers ago- both have allowed domestic private banks to be setup and many-like HDFC, ICICI etc. are doing extremely well. Once that happens, it is cheaper to raise funds here than elsewhere.

UK major industry was financial services and that is not going to be deliver the goods in the future.

Only other industry is pharmaceuticals but I can see both China and India making great strides on these areas over the next 1-2 decades.

 

[Speeder 2]

Agreed with the first part. The percentage of folks who stay on, after studying at the UK's prestigious HE institutes do not constitute the demographic "advantage" they talk of. These are mainly low skilled workers from the eastern end of the EU and other states.

Do you also have evidence for the major PISA tapering by the Chinese? Apart from using Shanghai as the Chinese representative.
As for the tests are useless, according to whom? Looking at the ranking trend with each nation, and their corresponding HDI scores, economic growth figures and other measures of prosperity there are strong correlations between success at PISA and a successful country.

Dude, don't get too serious with indians.

2 out of top powerhoue States of India scored #73 out of 74 major countries of the world in 2009. It chickened out last year - doesn't even have balls to take it any more, so Indians are full of sour grapes and inferior complex right now.

 

[Jade]

Agreed with the first part. The percentage of folks who stay on, after studying at the UK's prestigious HE institutes do not constitute the demographic "advantage" they talk of. These are mainly low skilled workers from the eastern end of the EU and other states.

Do you also have evidence for the major PISA tapering by the Chinese? Apart from using Shanghai as the Chinese representative.
As for the tests are useless, according to whom? Looking at the ranking trend with each nation, and their corresponding HDI scores, economic growth figures and other measures of prosperity there are strong correlations between success at PISA and a successful country.

There is migration from eastern EU, but here in this case the forecast was based on UK being a talent magnet. I guess apart from US, the next best destination is UK for high talent. Also English gives UK a natural advantage over Germany in attracting top talent across the world.

As regarding PISA, you cannot pick a small sample and extrapolate that to whole country, because those samples are unscientific and biased. You can Google on PISA for more information or go through some of the post made by @INDIC or @JayAtl

UK major industry was financial services and that is not going to be deliver the goods in the future.

Only other industry is pharmaceuticals but I can see both China and India making great strides on these areas over the next 1-2 decades.

It has great telecommunication and petrochemical industry too.

 

[Speeder 2]

UK major industry was financial services and that is not going to be deliver the goods in the future.

Only other industry is pharmaceuticals but I can see both China and India making great strides on these areas over the next 1-2 decades.

India? forget it.

The very existence of modern pharmaceuticals in India is purely due to that fact that India is so backward and cheap that it doesn't recognise ANY int'l drug company patents. India has close ZERO pharmaceuticals R&D investment , what great stride it will make? - the same as Sub Sahara Africa. Seriously, India is the largest cheap vaccine receipient in the world currently, more than Sub Sahara Africa putting togetehr. Ask Bill Gates.

 

[waz]

Dude, don't get too serious with indians.

2 out of top powerhoue States of India scored #73 out of 74 major countries of the world in 2009. It chickened out last year - doesn't even have balls to take it any more, so Indians are full of sour grapes and inferior complex right now.

Thank you for the information. I'll take a look a the 2009 rankings. I was just flabbergasted at the PISA being called useless.....I put the rankings above and now if you look at the following link;

OECD Better Life Index

You'll notice the nations that rank highest in the quality of life measures also do very well in the PISA exams.

 

[Jade]

ALL OECD countries take PISA. Are these countries useless? India chicken out after coming in 2nd last, so Indians think PISA is useless. But is India better than any of these countries in social, economics and development indicators?

How did China tamper PISA?? Because Shanghai represented China??
When India last participated in PISA, it sent the two states with highest GER enrollment, Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh. Why didn't india send poorer states like Bihar? Why didn't the US send backwater states like Alaska or Alabama? How exactly is China doing anything different from other big countries?

India didn't chickened out, India felt the test was useless hence withdrew.

Now China has a history of tampering with statistics. Everybody take statistics coming out China with a bag of salt.

 

[UKBengali]

India? forget it.

The very existence of modern pharmaceuticals in India is purely due to that fact that India is so backward and cheap that it doesn't recognise ANY int'l drug company patents. India has close ZERO pharmaceuticals R&D investment , what great stride it will make? - the same as Sub Sahara Africa. Seriously, India is the largest cheap vaccine receipient in the world currently, more than Sub Sahara Africa putting togetehr. Ask Bill Gates.

I think you are being a little harsh on India and this coming from someone who regularly argues with Indians.

India's pharmaceutical exports are now at near 15 billion dollars a year and has been growing at 24% a year for the last 4 years.

By 2030, India should be an established player in the world-wide pharmaceutical industry.

 

[Fattyacids]

India didn't chickened out, India felt the test was useless hence withdrew.

Now China has a history of tampering with statistics. Everybody take statistics coming out China with a bag of salt.

Your statement would sound more palatable if India came in top, but not when India came in 2nd last despite sending the two strongest states. India doesn't just fail in PISA which measures general education standard, you failed at tertiary level too. None of India's university break into world's top 200.

PISA is administered by OECD, not China. Have a brain!!!
If you want to take about tampering statistics, India beat China in scams and corruption index.

 

[Speeder 2]

There is migration from eastern EU, but here in this case the forecast was based on UK being a talent magnet. I guess apart from US, the next best destination is UK for high talent. Also English gives UK a natural advantage over Germany in attracting top talent across the world.

Bullsh!t. So-called migration from teh east block is by and large low end min. wage earners, many depending on govt doll.

With Indians from India being the single largest immigrant group currently in the UK, UK's national average IQ will be considerablely lower in 2028, guaranteed! Germany? UK would be lucky to beat Italy in 2028. By the way, by and large italy is still full of Italians, who has higher avg IQ than even Today's UK.

As regarding PISA, you cannot pick a small sample and extrapolate that to whole country, because those samples are unscientific and biased. You can Google on PISA for more information or go through some of the post made by @INDIC or @JayAtl

Pure rubbish! This PISA ranking , like any other standardised test such as SAT or TIMSS, is highly correlated to national IQ. OECD sample designers are highly professional statiscians. Theranking wouldn't be like this if those samples were baised.