India third largest economy by 2028: CEBR

[HariPrasad]

We are talking about real life scenarios.....

In Vajpayee rupee strengthen from 49 INR= 1USD to almost 43INR=1 USD. IN PPP 1 USD= 10 INR. So in real term our economy is around 5 TN USD equivalent at least. What we need is correct valuation of INR.

 

[UKBengali]

Centre for Economics and Business Research is pretty solid organization and is very influential among law makers, financial firms and MNCs.

As regarding UK printing money, the first indicator is CPI or Inflation. UK Inflation is just 2%A low inflation indicates low supply of sterling, hence printing of money can be discounted instantaneously. The second indicator is exchange rate. Pound is pretty strong currency. It is pretty stable and sometime actually has gained against USD in last two years. The third indicator is S&P rating. S&P has rated UK economy as triple-A rated, hence it economy is fundamentally strong. Currency is one of that fundamentals.

UK inflation is nearly 3% a year actually for a start.

What does the UK produce in comparison to Germany that has a massive industrial base? Not much apart from arms.

UK has a "housing-boom" that has been engineered by the Tories/Lib-Dems to try to win the next election. Without this the economy would not be growing at all.

It is hilarious to see any predictions an economy like UK will overtake an industrial powerhouse like Germany.

 

[xuxu1457]

As the world bank, in 2004,India GDP was 10th of the world with 69.19 billion$, and per capita is 134th of the world;
in 2012, India GDP was 10th of the world with 1.8 trillion$, and per capita is 146th of the world;
Higher increase was eaten by many things
And I only have 50% confidence that China can pass US, may same but hard to pass

 

[Fattyacids]

I dont think its possible for India.....
I have heard that if a country grows at 9% then its GDP gets doubled in 10 years.......
India's current GDP is 1.5 trillion dollars and if we assume that it reaches 2 trillion dollars by 2018 and then if it grows at 9% then it will be 4 trillion dollars by 2028.......
Japan ,Russia,Germany all will be more than 5 trillion dollars by that time so how India will be at 2nd position?
I think India will be at 6th or 5th position.....

Well above the average

Suppose It is 1USD=10 INR than?

Below average. and mildly delusional

 

[WAR-rior]

I dont think its possible for India.....
I have heard that if a country grows at 9% then its GDP gets doubled in 10 years.......
India's current GDP is 1.5 trillion dollars and if we assume that it reaches 2 trillion dollars by 2018 and then if it grows at 9% then it will be 4 trillion dollars by 2028.......
Japan ,Russia,Germany all will be more than 5 trillion dollars by that time so how India will be at 2nd position?
I think India will be at 6th or 5th position.....

Hope u understand real growth of 9% can lead to nominal growth of 15% if currency is conducive.

 

[Jade]

UK inflation is nearly 3% a year actually for a start.

What does the UK produce in comparison to Germany that has a massive industrial base? Not much apart from arms.

UK has a "housing-boom" that has been engineered by the Tories/Lib-Dems to try to win the next election. Without this the economy would not be growing at all.

It is hilarious to see any predictions an economy like UK will overtake an industrial powerhouse like Germany.

Inflation cannot be zero. Inflation is required for economic growth. At present UK inflation is 2.2% and not 3%. Germany is a industrial base, so is UK a financial hub. Do you know that $1 trillion dollars are raised and invested every year for The City alone, a one square KM space in midst of London. Imagine the transaction fee these investment companies generate.

And remember, this is a economic forecasting, not some kind of prediction. The reality can be quite different.

I guess the main reason for this kind of economic forecasting is 1)Younger demographics of UK as compared to Germany 2)Having its own currency gives UK a hard power to control its economy in harder time 3) With Germany being the centre of Euro Zone, it has to take along with it the Euro lags such as Portugal, Greece etc...in this Economic race. UK has no such obligation.

 

[Sunny009]

I dont think its possible for India.....
I have heard that if a country grows at 9% then its GDP gets doubled in 10 years.......
India's current GDP is 1.5 trillion dollars and if we assume that it reaches 2 trillion dollars by 2018 and then if it grows at 9% then it will be 4 trillion dollars by 2028.......
Japan ,Russia,Germany all will be more than 5 trillion dollars by that time so how India will be at 2nd position?
I think India will be at 6th or 5th position.....

Your confusing real GDP with nominal GDP.

 

[Janmejay]

Hope u understand real growth of 9% can lead to nominal growth of 15% if currency is conducive.

Well i dont know anything about economics,please explain.....

Your confusing real GDP with nominal GDP.

Please elaborate......

 

[Guynextdoor2]

Inflation cannot be zero. Inflation is required for economic growth. At present UK inflation is 2.2% and not 3%. Germany is a industrial base, so is UK a financial hub. Do you know that $1 trillion dollars are raised and invested every year for The City alone, a one square KM space in midst of London. Imagine the transaction fee these investment companies generate.

And remember, this is a economic forecasting, not some kind of prediction. The reality can be quite different.

I guess the main reason for this kind of economic forecasting is 1)Younger demographics of UK as compared to Germany 2)Having its own currency gives UK a hard power to control its economy in harder time 3) With Germany being the centre of Euro Zone, it has to take along with it the Euro lags such as Portugal, Greece etc...in this Economic race. UK has no such obligation.

Yeah but I think all that will shift out. Intellectual strength on banking and financial services are not limited to UK (& US) now. And as china grows and India grows, the need to reach out to a far out place for reliable serives will go down. Financial strength gets distributed and closer to growth countries.

 

[UKBengali]

Yeah but I think all that will shift out. Intellectual strength on banking and financial services are not limited to UK (& US) now. And as china grows and India grows, the need to reach out to a far out place for reliable serives will go down. Financial strength gets distributed and closer to growth countries.

Exactly.

Finance is not as hard to develop as manufacturing.

The UK's finance industry will die along with the US's status as superpower.

There is a reason the UK is a US puppet and it is not to do with "shared-values".

 

[Guynextdoor2]

Exactly.

Finance is not as hard to develop as manufacturing.

The UK's finance industry will die along with the US's status as superpower.

There is a reason the UK is a US puppet and it is not to do with "shared-values".

I think as long as the US has a latrge domestic economy, it's finance institutions will do well wedded with them, financing them. And the rest of the world, they have (US has) good presence in corporate as well as consumer finance, so I expect them to do better than the UK.

 

[liall]

What is Chinas expected economy to be around 2028?

 

[xuxu1457]

What is Chinas expected economy to be around 2028?

Of pound sterling

 

[Jade]

Yeah but I think all that will shift out. Intellectual strength on banking and financial services are not limited to UK (& US) now. And as china grows and India grows, the need to reach out to a far out place for reliable serives will go down. Financial strength gets distributed and closer to growth countries.

You are right, banking and financial services are not limited to UK or US any more. However, because of blurring of capital markets, proximity of finance to Industrial centres is important but not a necessity any more. It is as easy and sometime easier for an Indian company to raise money in US and UK than in India. Given that Capital markets in west are more liquid and more sophisticated than in India or China, and given that it would take many years for developing world to have such financial markets as in west, I don't see any imminent threat to finance world in London or New York in near future.

 

[liall]

Of pound sterling

That is a lot of pounds So per capita income increases from 5k $ to almost 20k $. Almost as good as a European nation like Portugal. I do not know when will India reach that point :/