LankaWeb – India: the New American Disposable Paper?
India: the New American Disposable Paper?
Posted on May 31st, 2015
Use them and dump them is the doctrine used by the global policeman towards its non-European allies. It can be seen right throughout the history it has teamed up with a nation or a group, particularly after 1945.
Interestingly, one of its first captives was Sri Lanka (Ceylon) which signed the Anglo-Ceylon Defence Partnership Agreement in 1947. Making use of this, the west forced Ceylon to sign and promote the San Francisco Peace Treaty (1951) against China. By this treaty, China permanently lost some of its territory grabbed by the Japanese Imperial army since 1895. The right thing would have been to return Chinese territory back to China which was denied by the SFPT. Current tension in East China Sea over Senkuku/Diaoyu, etc. islands is the result of the SFPT to which Ceylon was a party to. Pakistan was the other independent Asian country that supported it. After making use of Ceylon, the west dumped it soon thereafter leaving it without protection. In 1987 facing an Indian invasion JR Jayawardane made a frantic attempt to revive the 1947 agreement but to no avail. Used, then dumped.
Afghan rebel groups were used by the US against the Soviet invasion but soon dumped them when the invaders retreated. It created a global terror epidemic which is now sweeping westward from Iraq. At the same time Pakistan was used to coordinate weapons transfers to the rebels. Part of these weapons leaked to radical elements within Pakistan which made it ungovernable. Having achieved its objectives, USA left Pakistan high and dry. It is the same story in Afghanistan (part 2), Iraq, Libya, Egypt, Ukraine, Bosnia, Turkey, South Vietnam, Yemen, etc. Even Israel has been deserted by the US over Iran recently as Iran’s help is sought by Washington to fight off IS rebels. Interestingly, USA deserted its closest ally, the UK over its war with the IRA. USA refused to take sides and even allowed help to flow to the IRA. Groups and nations fooled by western gimmicks committed themselves to a disastrous plan only to find the west deserting them when things turn difficult.
Never ending sufferings of Libyan, Syrian, Egyptian, Ukrainian, Iraqi, Pakistani, etc. people must be a stark warning to India which is USA’s latest use and dump toilet paper. Unfortunately for India, its ultra nationalist rulers don’t see what is in stock for it by playing its role assigned by USA. In its latest blunder, India has joined USA and Vietnam in disrupting China in the South China Sea. The timing couldn’t have been more perfect. Since the past four weeks, USA made several military advances in South China Sea. It spied on newly constructed Chinese islets, decided to place its nuclear warhead carrying planes in northern Australia against China (an extremely dangerous and irresponsible move), agitated ASEAN countries to take on China and entered into weapons transfer agreements with them. India jumped in and responded immediately by entering into a strategic defence agreement with Vietnam against China. India has already sent a destroyer and three accompanying vessels to South China Sea to further antagonise China.
This follows India’s retaliatory response to China supposedly building a ‘string of pearls’ around India. The absurd ‘string of pearls’ concept is a US made concept to demonise China’s commercial infrastructure in South Asia and pit India into confrontation against China. In fact, there is no Chinese attempt to encircle India. Most Chinese trade and vital oil imports pass through the Indian Ocean and defending these trade routes is of paramount importance. On the other hand, the South China Sea has no relevance to Indian trade. However, if India tries to enter into the South China Sea dispute as it already has done so, China will be left with no option but to respond in like manner.
The odds are against India for several strategic reasons. Firstly the sheer size of the Indian navy is incomparably smaller than that of China; and outdated. India’s technology mentor Russia is severely lagging behind naval technology and indigenous technology is extremely poor and unreliable. Indian air force is also plagued by outdated Soviet era technology, very poor local products and the absence of an upgrade for the past 20 years. Most Indian planes are dubbed ‘flying coffins’ by pilots and as a result there is a severe shortage of pilots. Chinese economy is making larger strands than India further widening the gap.
Secondly, India is a landlocked country with hostile neighbours thanks to its own making. In case of war disrupting Chinese and Indian shipping, India will collapse as its oil and other imports cannot reach it and its exports cannot leave its ports. China on the other hand has land routes out of China to Europe and out into the Pacific. China also has oil pipelines through land and within the next three years will have most of its petroleum needs coming via land routes. Therefore a sea battle of hostilities will have only one definite loser – India.
Thirdly, there is the Pakistan factor. Pakistan is already a nuclear power which can match India’s nuclear capabilities. In retaliation to India teaming up with Vietnam, China will arm Pakistan even more. This will place India in a grind as two nuclear armed neighbours aim their missiles at India. Its coastal nuclear power plants and economic nerve centres will also come under severe threat of 2008 type of small attacks which will ruin the Indian economy.
Fourthly, as India cosies up with USA, it is fast losing its all weather friend – Russia. Already Russia is hedging its dependence on India with Pakistan and China. As India sinks further into the US lap, Russia will distance itself from India. This is the perfect situation the US is looking for. It will further galvanise India into the US plan as it has no other partner to turn to. As a result India will lose its weapons flow (currently India is world’s largest importer of weapons) and technology donations. Western weapons are far more expensive and the west doesn’t share military technology. The Indian economy will go red trying to buy these expensive weapons.
Fifthly, India is a very unstable country with ethnic boundaries running crisscross. Most Indian states (including Tamil Nadu) have active yet suppressed separatist movements to gain independence. The fragility of this ethnic enclave model was seen from the collapse of the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia. Faced with the Indian threat, China and Pakistan will help these state movements and break up India. On the other hand, a confrontation will only galvanise China together.
When things go bad, India will be unable to locate US help let alone receive them. The fate of the pro-US Ukrainian government will befall India. However, Indian decision makers are oblivious to these facts and are happy to play the US game against China. India’s embrace of death and destruction will have no different end results from that of other countries that have already gone through it
