What's new

India seeks transit from Pakistan to supply wheat to Afghanistan

Precisely. All this Chahbar port/railways/highways is 10-15 years into the future, if you ever get there. The problem with central asia is that you need to go through Afghanistan which is unstable, or through narrow strip of Afghan land (Wakhan Corridor) from Pakistan to Tajikistan and then beyond. You can do sea trade with Iran but then you still have to travel up north in to Afghanistan/Turkmenistan
Pakistan is definitely more cost effective when it comes to trading with Afghanistan, but for the rest of Central Asia, Iran is more cost effective.

Transporting goods over road over long distances is very cost - inefficient. You need sea and rail to mitigate costs.

Iran and other Central Asian states are building quite a vast rail network which is to be connected to Chabahar. Iran is planning to position itself as the trading hub of the entire Central Asian region.

Though as you rightly said, it would take around 10 - 15 years for all the plans to get implemented. It will take 5+ years for Chabahar itself to get constructed fully.

Though 10 years is nothing when it comes to mega investment plans such as these.
 
.
Precisely. All this Chahbar port/railways/highways is 10-15 years into the future, if you ever get there. The problem with central asia is that you need to go through Afghanistan which is unstable, or through narrow strip of Afghan land (Wakhan Corridor) from Pakistan to Tajikistan and then beyond. You can do sea trade with Iran but then you still have to travel up north in to Afghanistan/Turkmenistan
If there's no more pressure from amreika then chahbar port would at most be operational in 5-6yrs of time atmost ,with complete funding and no more restriction into the future,roads and highway i guess would go hand in hand,Iran part would be easy bt afghanistan side would be a little tough wid looney toons jumping around with guns.

You can do sea
trade with Iran but then you still have to travel up north in to Afghanistan/
Turkmenistan
Its already a pain in rear to trade with Afghanistan and you are taking about Turkmenistan -,- have some mercy man.But seriously with an Economy growing at 12% YoY ,this is the perfect time to do business with them and Iran and Afghanistan could provide a transit route to it,but still china rules their market.
 
.
If there's no more pressure from amreika then chahbar port would at most be operational in 5-6yrs of time atmost ,with complete funding and no more restriction into the future,roads and highway i guess would go hand in hand,Iran part would be easy bt afghanistan side would be a little tough wid looney toons jumping around with guns.


Its already a pain in rear to trade with Afghanistan and you are taking about Turkmenistan -,- have some mercy man.But seriously with an Economy growing at 12% YoY ,this is the perfect time to do business with them and Iran and Afghanistan could provide a transit route to it,but still china rules their market.

Wait till US leaves Afghanistan, it's gonna collapse. They have no fundamentals what so ever. the 12% YoY figures are misleading because the billions in aid was counted as GDP growth. Since the GDP is hardly a few billions USD worth, even if you add 1 billion USD per year, it's a big growth. Once the aid dries out, it's gone. So if India is going there for market, it's gravely mistaken. You'll find a market at least 10 times that size in Pakistan.

Pakistan is definitely more cost effective when it comes to trading with Afghanistan, but for the rest of Central Asia, Iran is more cost effective.

Transporting goods over road over long distances is very cost - inefficient. You need sea and rail to mitigate costs.

Iran and other Central Asian states are building quite a vast rail network which is to be connected to Chabahar. Iran is planning to position itself as the trading hub of the entire Central Asian region.

Though as you rightly said, it would take around 10 - 15 years for all the plans to get implemented. It will take 5+ years for Chabahar itself to get constructed fully.

Though 10 years is nothing when it comes to mega investment plans such as these.

Look at the economic growth, problems etc in Central Asia. Then tell me what do you think?

Where are they going to get money from to build these roads and railways? You build infrastructure to get your money's worth out of it. Russia can no longer prop them up.
 
.
Where are they going to get money from to build these roads and railways? You build infrastructure to get your money's worth out of it. Russia can no longer prop them up.
Russia alone does not need to. China, US Aid, WB among a hundred other such are sponsoring such inter-regional connectivity program in Central Asia.
Turkey is more than pulling its own weight. Turkey and Iran are getting connected in a big way.

The entire region is in a massive push to join a transportation grid.

And trade to Central Asia via Iran is far cheaper than using the routes from Pakistan. Iran is putting its money where its mouth is, the construction of their new railway lines is in full swing.

Pakistans cost advantage in trade is limited to one country - Afghanistan.
 
.
But seriously, it could be advantage Pakistan as they could earn a lot from transit fees. What's holding them up? Their flour milling industry? So they're scared of the competition? It would be advantageous for the ordinary Pakistani too, as competition will lower prices. Pakistan needs to end the stranglehold of vested interests.
Divert the transit fees as subsidy to Pakistan wheat exporters as well and make them competitive to Indian prices. If Pakistan wheat quality is better without any disease as claimed in the article, market will decide the fate of Indian wheat by itself.
 
.
India has sought permission from Pakistan to export over a million tonnes of wheat through its territory to Afghanistan, a move opposed by the local milling industry which fears losing vast Afghan market due to cheap Indian supplies.

The Indians have sought permission to export over a million tonnes of wheat to Afghanistan through Pakistan's land route but the flour milling industry here is exerting pressure on the government to deny the permission, the Dawn reported.

The local industry has threatened to launch protests if the PML-N government grants the permsisison to India, it said.

"The industry thinks that subsidised Indian wheat would drive it out of the Afghan market, which it takes more of an extension of its business for two reasons: proximity and high profits," said the paper.

It is not only the general subsidy on farm inputs that makes the Indian wheat cheaper as compared to Pakistan, but the Indian government, if the Pakistani industry is to be believed, has also offered a US $50 per tonne additional subsidy to exporters, thus driving the price further down, the paper said.

Indian wheat would cost Pakistani Rupees 2,900 per tonne in Afghanistan, against Pakistani price of Rs 3,400 per tonne.

This difference of Rs 500 per tonne is bound to tilt the competitive edge in favour of the Indian wheat and Pakistan would lose its traditional market that consumes over half a million tonne of flour from Pakistan, the Dawn said.

Transit trade facility for India, for business with Afghanistan, has a strategic dimension to it, rather than being purely a commercial activity. That is precisely the point where Pakistan needs to clarify its position.

Cheaper Indian exports would hit the entire Pakistani milling industry business cycle and the previous payments of flour to the Afghan market supplied on credit would get stuck. The possible permission has also revived old fears of farmers.

The Indian wheat carries Karnal Brunt (a kind of disease), that they think would spread in Pakistan if wheat is allowed to be traded through the country.

Given the porous nature of Afghan transit trade and borders, they fear that the disease-carrying Indian wheat may be diverted to Pakistan and destroy its wheat base.

Historically, the farmers have never objected to the export of flour to Afghanistan, but they have always been apprehensive about allowing Indian wheat through Pakistan.

The industry has successfully rekindled their fears and enlisted required support to put pressure on the government, the paper added.

India seeks transit from Pakistan to supply wheat to Afghanistan | Latest News & Updates at Daily News & Analysis
if nawaz allows this the there will not be a bigge baygharat on earth then him.
 
.
Russia alone does not need to. China, US Aid, WB among a hundred other such are sponsoring such inter-regional connectivity program in Central Asia.
Turkey is more than pulling its own weight. Turkey and Iran are getting connected in a big way.

The entire region is in a massive push to join a transportation grid.

And trade to Central Asia via Iran is far cheaper than using the routes from Pakistan. Iran is putting its money where its mouth is, the construction of their new railway lines is in full swing.

Pakistans cost advantage in trade is limited to one country - Afghanistan.

A typical one day journey on a truck from Lahore border to Peshawar.....or sea journey and then more days on land....which will be cheaper? It's not really that hard to figure out. In absence of Pakistani routes, Iran is good, but not when Pakistan comes into Picture.

USA/NATO tried, and realized, Pakistan is the cheapest and easiest route into Afghanistan. (despite having airbases/port berthing rights in Central Asia)
 
.
It possibly could harm Pak markets if subsidized goods are transported on a regular basis.
I guess they have all the right to increase the transit fees or the like.

Iran has good railway links from other ports as well, sure transit cost will be higher but your govt. can cover up by further subsidizing.

Sure - Chahbhar will be game changer but still will be expensive routes for agriculture exports as compared to land route via Pakistan. That will be good for Pakistan as it will compensate Indian subsidies hence will give us little bit level playing field.

Actually in developing countries transportation by land is costlier than transportation by sea, though cheaper than transportation by air. Merchant shipping is the heart of global economy, carrying bulk of the international trade. I guess Chahbahar remains the only alternative.
 
.
A typical one day journey on a truck from Lahore border to Peshawar.....or sea journey and then more days on land....which will be cheaper? It's not really that hard to figure out. In absence of Pakistani routes, Iran is good, but not when Pakistan comes into Picture.

USA/NATO tried, and realized, Pakistan is the cheapest and easiest route into Afghanistan. (despite having airbases/port berthing rights in Central Asia)
I have repeatedly said that for tapping Afghanistan, there is no better way than Pakistan.
Let me put it again - Pakistan is the cheapest route into Afghanistan.

However as you rightly said, in the absence of Pakistani route, the Iran route is finally going to be a boon for Afghanistan. It will be more expensive than Pakistan for sure but it provides Afghanistan a second option. And for evacuating goods - like minerals - from Afghanistan, it will be a god send for India.

However, I am talking about Central Asia. For Central Asian States, Iran is the cheapest route. And considering Iran and other Central Asian states including Turkey are massively investing in inter-region rail connectivity, Iran will be a far better option.
 
. .
NS is a sensible person and I am sure he will not put a spanner in this humanitarian cause.
 
.
I have repeatedly said that for tapping Afghanistan, there is no better way than Pakistan.
Let me put it again - Pakistan is the cheapest route into Afghanistan.

However as you rightly said, in the absence of Pakistani route, the Iran route is finally going to be a boon for Afghanistan. It will be more expensive than Pakistan for sure but it provides Afghanistan a second option. And for evacuating goods - like minerals - from Afghanistan, it will be a god send for India.

However, I am talking about Central Asia. For Central Asian States, Iran is the cheapest route. And considering Iran and other Central Asian states including Turkey are massively investing in inter-region rail connectivity, Iran will be a far better option.

Central Asia is 10 years in the future. You need serious infrastructure development there. And what makes you think China isn't already there?
 
.
Central Asia is 10 years in the future. You need serious infrastructure development there.
It is already happening. The infrastructure is being developed by these States, this started a few years back. The results will bear fruit in a decade.
And what makes you think China isn't already there?
Who do you think is pushing the Central Asian States into doing this in the first place?
Its China, they are not only the ones who are pushing them, they have also financed some of it and they are making money building the infrastructure as well! Not to mention providing consultancy where they are not building it themselves!

However how is China being there relevant to India?
The idea was that till now Central Asia was a relatively difficult market due to inter-national logistical difficulties for.

You had to use one or the other states there as a springboard, now however the Central Asian states will come under direct economic line of non-regional countries - .

Indian and Chinese companies are competitors globally - from US to Africa to India itself. Neither the Chinese nor the Indian companies are expecting a captive market. We know we will have to compete, but you can be assured Chinese and Indian companies will push out the others.

Not to mention it will make evacuation of resources like minerals and ores from Central Asia ten times simpler.
 
.
Don't be stupid, there is the M2-M1 motorway, from Lahore to Peshawar, safer than any highway in India.

@Donatello

Seriously , you are comparing Pakistan to India , lol
 
.
KINGS CARD - WE HOLD
images.jpg
 
.

Pakistan Defence Latest Posts

Pakistan Affairs Latest Posts

Back
Top Bottom