India’s aircraft carrier ambitions take a dive

[KRAIT]

Apart from the usual and expected mismanagement and all that， has it occured to anyone that the whole programme might have run into a multitude of technical difficulties？Leaving aside delays in gear boxes and other sub-systems，the shipyard in question could be having serious problems with putting together the structure itself。India is not a shipbuilding power，a fact that is evident from a glance of its poorly-equipped yards。India will need big help from outside and mighty luck to pull this off before 2022， and for actual commision，2025 is the deadline one should work for。

Not close at all...i just agree with mismanagement and few technical difficulties.

 

[explorer9]

Let me give you an example from my real life experience...I was attending an international conference with my professor.

A person who leads the study of "Spread of dengue fever in Delhi" came to him and ask for something...You know what was it.....

God damn 5 to 7 mathematical equations. He had all the data, all the resources but didn't have a mathematical model so he came asked the one who was pioneer in this field. And let me tell you to make a robust and low error mathematical model is not a child's game.

Look at China...they have robst ship building industry, they have developed their own nuclear submarine and tanks for decades, still our arjun beat T-90 in weapon's trial....

Make Army accountable for Arjun MK-I and MK II, for contantly changing requirements, same for IAF in case of Tejas for asking 4.5 generation airplane to build from the scratch without no experience.

Tejas got delayed due to sanctions imposed post 1998.....US forbid Israel to sell us AESA radar.....we were at nascent stage of use of composite material...what would you have an incompetent aircraft in large number or wait of 5 to 10 years to launch a good platform by its own...filling the stop gap with foreign fighters until then.

Kaveri is not a failure. It just doesn't thrust. But look at the bright side, its more than sufficient to power UAVs which is future of Air force. Now we can focus on building multiple squadrons of UCAV since we have the most important part, the engine

We are a developing country, not developed. Its silly of us to not to expect delays and problems. Even russia don't have steam catapult, US is working on EMALS, China's ACC will come out with ours.....

Its the mentality of us Indians to start blaming as soon as something bad occurs.

No one said anything when we had succesful BMD demonstration or successful Moon mission. Ask any scientist and any researcher, they will tell you one thing.....Patience is the key not planning. How can you plan something which you haven't done yet.

We have to try to learn setbacks and take it as a challenge rather than pointing fingers. I was way happy when NAG had problems in extreme hot weathers and Both Army and DRDO instead of blaming, agreed to work together.

Blame game takes you no wheree, either keep wasting time on it or "Do Whats Necessary".

Only one thing Cochin shipyard did wrong was they made promise before taking everything in account. For that you can held them accountable for but not for their incompetence coz incompetence comes when you can't make a simple thing not when you can't make an Entire Aircraft Carrier. (These shipyards gave us or will give destroyers, submarines, frigates, corvettes). Have some faith and don't prosecute them just because we can't boast before posters of other nations and possible mocking by them.

Generally the mindset of our people is that, we have already became a super power with out knowing the ground realities. Their is a huge difference between ability to do something and the capability of of doing something. The ground reality is that, though we have progressed fair bit but not capable enough to carry out complex projects. May be because of initial focus on indigenous development. I read an article on IDR few days where the writer a retired senior officer for Indian Armed Forces compared the arms development programme of few developing countries including Turkey, south korea, Brazil & Pakistan. According to the research he concluded that the even Pakistani arms development proggrammes resulted better than ours.

 

[SubcontinentalTreatyOrgtn]

Here we can atleast pledge that we are going to vote for MODI in 2014.......
Because in the same page as this News is......There is an article titled "RAHUL to take a"bigger Role" God save India....

 

[GR!FF!N]

Naval Tejas gets much needed time to mature..we can even see Naval Tejas II if Tejas program goes as planned.thats a silver lining..and isn't Viraat going to serve upto 2018??

 

[Screambowl]

a year delay was expected but 3 years is too much. we need 2 AC operational soon because we are not doing any research on this ship. It will be made from already existing technologies. Well let's hope 2017 is the deadline.

 

[SubcontinentalTreatyOrgtn]

Yes it is Disheartening but there is no need to Panic.....
What we need to Fast forward is Nuke submarines...
China has never had an Aircraft Carrier before...they must be looking at it as if it is an alien spaceship...(Nooffense :-D)
India has an experience of 55 years of operation Carrier Battle Group.....Even INS Viraat is enough to blough and sink Varyag...
It will take atleast 30 years for China to master the technique of operating Aircraft carrier and that tooo when you have only one.
Even then for 2013-2017 India will have 2 CBGs......More than enough
Viraat is expected to retire/OR TO BE USED AS A TRAINER FOR NAVY PILOTS by 2020....Even then for 3 years India will have 3 CBGs...We should instead strive for speeding up SSBNs....
In a nutshell India will only be ready to take on the WOrld Powers (except China) only by 2020.

 

[KRAIT]

Generally the mindset of our people is that, we have already became a super power with out knowing the ground realities. Their is a huge difference between ability to do something and the capability of of doing something. The ground reality is that, though we have progressed fair bit but not capable enough to carry out complex projects. May be because of initial focus on indigenous development. I read an article on IDR few days where the writer a retired senior officer for Indian Armed Forces compared the arms development programme of few developing countries including Turkey, south korea, Brazil & Pakistan. According to the research he concluded that the even Pakistani arms development proggrammes resulted better than ours.

There lies the problem, we are so much occupied with other nations's development process than having faith in ours.

I am not saying it is perfect but its according to our needs.

Brazil, Pakistan, South Korea didn't develop Nuke sub, but we have to coz our requirement is to have considerably large influence on IOR

Brazil, Pakistan don't have ICBM required threats, first one has no outright enemy, second one has their enemy within their current missile range. India has to develop Agni V, SLBM, K series, because of same perceived threat, China....deep strike.

Pakistan don't have BMD program coz they don't follow "No first use policy". We need to have coz we do.

To become a Blue water navy, India has to develop robust shipping industry, which we are, to induct 49 ships, diesel submarine, and SSBNs too.....and it is a well known fact that IOR will be the main focus of this century.

Brazil, Pakistan, South Korea, don't have more advanced space program. We have to have it. Reason being, spy satellites to monitor intrusions on border, being surrounded by hostile(depends on how you perceive) neighbors. Agni V is also supposed to be a platform for ASAT coz China has shown its capability. Agni V will also be used for launching spy satellites on short notice if immediate need emerges.

Brazil and Pakistan don't have fifth generation aircraft program, China does and testing the prototypes, FGFA and AMCA is need of the hour.

Kaveri being used for UCAV, good choice, we didn't end up with nothing, its the future. China has significant lead in this department too. Even Pakistan may surprise us with it.

Akash missles are also or prime requirement. again same reason- see our own threat perception.

ALCM-Bhrahmos, NAG, Nirbhay, all needed.

With Arjun and LCA, in future we can produce our own tanks and acs in case of a war, rather than depending in other countries.

Rafale ToT will significantly affect Tejas MKII and AMCA.

You can't always rely on foreign weapons so you have to start somewhere. I already gave reasons why we need to emphasize on indigenous development. Look at China, churning out squadrons like rabbits. Same with their warships and ACCs (will develop way faster than us).


Entire scope of operation has to be taken into account. Don't go where Turkey, SK, Brazil and Pakistan is heading, rather go on path of China......and I think that's where we are headed, slowly, with more error and delays, but getting on owr own feet. Otherwise have to pay $2.3 billion for every ACC and with delays like Vikadi dependent on Russia, who has also increased cost of other weapons significantly.

Nothing can beat an efficient and advanced domestic defense industries. With requirements so much, cost over runs and delays are expected, common sense.

You read one article, read articles about why Germany was defeated in WW-2, how China became threat and counter force against USA. List goes on..................

Ponder your thoughts over it. Also not to dis-respect that officer, its IA and IAF that never made up their mind about Arjun and LCA. Even IA has allegedly sabotaged Arjun's weapon's trial for acquisition of more T-90s........

 

[Screambowl]

Yes it is Disheartening but there is no need to Panic.....
What we need to Fast forward is Nuke submarines...
China has never had an Aircraft Carrier before...they must be looking at it as if it is an alien spaceship...(Nooffense :-D)
India has an experience of 55 years of operation Carrier Battle Group.....Even INS Viraat is enough to blough and sink Varyag...
It will take atleast 30 years for China to master the technique of operating Aircraft carrier and that tooo when you have only one.
Even then for 2013-2017 India will have 2 CBGs......More than enough
Viraat is expected to retire/OR TO BE USED AS A TRAINER FOR NAVY PILOTS by 2020....Even then for 3 years India will have 3 CBGs...We should instead strive for speeding up SSBNs....
In a nutshell India will only be ready to take on the WOrld Powers (except China) only by 2020.

SLBM system for all our missiles is still not operational and will take 5 years to be ready. We do not know what's the progress. So by the time Arihant and scorpene joins the navy we would have developed the sea launch capability. So I hope submarines things doesnt get delayed.

Rest is Bhagwan Bharosey.

 

[Yogi]

If I'm not wrong it took 9+ years to build the 28,000 tonne HMS Hermes/INS VIRAAT and the 65,000 tonne Queen Elizabeth class aircraft carriers laid down in 2008/9 will only be ready in 2018/21 respectively. Of course this is not the same but what I'm trying to say is building and ACC is one of the hardest and most complex projects any navy can undertake and of course the 1st one is always going to be the hardest but the incredible amount of information and knowledge collected by Indian shipyards will not go to waste and will only see Indian warships construction in good steed in the future especially future indigenous ACCs. We can certainly expect IAC-2 and subsequent ACCs to be built faster and be more capable.

This doesn't justify our incompetence in management of project i say fire some d***heads an see everythings run fine but the problem is in govt jobs everybody knws whether u do the work or not u'll get pay cheque on time

This UPA will ruin this nation i m telling u first they don't allow private players in big projects second they don't take any actions against such incompetent people

If they can't make it in 7 years fine but do give me a date to rely on
i mean had it been one project i can understand two ok three ok but every single project no matter how small it is or how big it is

its good that pakistan is in such bad shape due to WOT n china is more busy with SCS region

This is high time to wake up n smell the coffee else future won't provide us any second chances...

 

[arp2041]

the only thing that can now save face for Cochin shipyard & IN is to have begin construction of IAC - 2 simultaneously with the IAC-1 & roll out both of them before 2019, when we can have 3 AC's operational, also a contingency plan is to consider buying an AC from some other country, like GB offering us the Elizabeth (maybe IN can make some changes to it as per needs), it will be made operational before 2019, so whatever GOI choose IN can have 3 operational AC's before the end of this decade. From now on pls include private shipyards also in the ship building effort, if they will not be given chance than there is no way these things are to go any time soon. We desperately need 3 carrier force + 5 nuke subs before the end of decade to claim the title of - true blue water navy.

+ from 2012 to 2014 to 2015 to 2017, is 2017 final?? or P-15B or P-17A will get complete earlier than IAC-1.

 

[KRAIT]

the only thing that can now save face for Cochin shipyard & IN is to have begin construction of IAC - 2 si......

Even if we do manage to build IAC-2 by then, we will only have two active CBG at a time....

 

[sangsharma]

Even if we do manage to build IAC-2 by then, we will only have two active CBG at a time....

I am critical of the fact that CSL, Navy and MOD drew up too ambitious timelines for the carrier. For example, just look at the timelines for similar/smaller ships:

INS Vikrant (HMS Hercules - R49) -19500 Tons - Laid down November 1943 - Construction suspended September 1945 - Started again January 1957 - Commissioned March 1961 - 6yrs in the making

INS Viraat (HMS Hermes - R12) - 28700 Tons - Laid down 21 June 1944 - Construction suspended 1945 - Started again 1952 - Commissioned November 1959 - 8 yrs in the making

HMS Invincible (UK) - 22000 Tons - Laid down April 1973- Commissioned July 1980 - 7 yrs in the making

Charles De Gaulle, Nuclear Powered (France) - 42000 Tons - Laid down April 1989 - Commissioned May 2001 - 12 yrs in the making

Only US has managed to complete various carriers in less than 6yrs of time.

 

[KRAIT]

^ Good info mate.....yeah they made some weird deadlines, but we are in 2012, technology has changed, what used to be the toughest tasks, become easier. Modular approach makes the work damn fast due to parallel construction. We are not developing nuclear powered, steam catapult one, just one with diesel engines and ski-jump.....If these setbacks didn't occur I still feel 2015 was achievable one...

 

[explorer9]

There lies the problem, we are so much occupied with other nations's development process than having faith in ours.

I am not saying it is perfect but its according to our needs.

Brazil, Pakistan, South Korea didn't develop Nuke sub, but we have to coz our requirement is to have considerably large influence on IOR

Brazil, Pakistan don't have ICBM required threats, first one has no outright enemy, second one has their enemy within their current missile range. India has to develop Agni V, SLBM, K series, because of same perceived threat, China....deep strike.

Pakistan don't have BMD program coz they don't follow "No first use policy". We need to have coz we do.

To become a Blue water navy, India has to develop robust shipping industry, which we are, to induct 49 ships, diesel submarine, and SSBNs too.....and it is a well known fact that IOR will be the main focus of this century.

Brazil, Pakistan, South Korea, don't have more advanced space program. We have to have it. Reason being, spy satellites to monitor intrusions on border, being surrounded by hostile(depends on how you perceive) neighbors. Agni V is also supposed to be a platform for ASAT coz China has shown its capability. Agni V will also be used for launching spy satellites on short notice if immediate need emerges.

Brazil and Pakistan don't have fifth generation aircraft program, China does and testing the prototypes, FGFA and AMCA is need of the hour.

Kaveri being used for UCAV, good choice, we didn't end up with nothing, its the future. China has significant lead in this department too. Even Pakistan may surprise us with it.

Akash missles are also or prime requirement. again same reason- see our own threat perception.

ALCM-Bhrahmos, NAG, Nirbhay, all needed.

With Arjun and LCA, in future we can produce our own tanks and acs in case of a war, rather than depending in other countries.

Rafale ToT will significantly affect Tejas MKII and AMCA.

You can't always rely on foreign weapons so you have to start somewhere. I already gave reasons why we need to emphasize on indigenous development. Look at China, churning out squadrons like rabbits. Same with their warships and ACCs (will develop way faster than us).


Entire scope of operation has to be taken into account. Don't go where Turkey, SK, Brazil and Pakistan is heading, rather go on path of China......and I think that's where we are headed, slowly, with more error and delays, but getting on owr own feet. Otherwise have to pay $2.3 billion for every ACC and with delays like Vikadi dependent on Russia, who has also increased cost of other weapons significantly.

Nothing can beat an efficient and advanced domestic defense industries. With requirements so much, cost over runs and delays are expected, common sense.

You read one article, read articles about why Germany was defeated in WW-2, how China became threat and counter force against USA. List goes on..................

Ponder your thoughts over it. Also not to dis-respect that officer, its IA and IAF that never made up their mind about Arjun and LCA. Even IA has allegedly sabotaged Arjun's weapon's trial for acquisition of more T-90s........

My intention was neither to disrespect the indigenous programmes nor to belittle the achievements we have had in the six+ decades after independence. You have rightly analyzed the requirements of Indian armed forces and the vast difference we have with other countries’ requirements. What you portrayed in detail is known fact, but I expect from you to touch the solution part of the setbacks. All the progrmmes which were commenced with foreign partnership completed in defined timeline. You gave the example or Arihant nuclear sub, CAG report says that its 10% indigenous only same with LCA apart from airframe nothing is Indian. It is better to go for Joint ventures rather than wasting decades in indigenousization. …..

 

[KRAIT]

My intention was neither to disrespect the indigenous programmes nor to belittle the achievements we have had in the six+ decades after independence. You have rightly analyzed the requirements of Indian armed forces and the vast difference we have with other countries’ requirements. What you portrayed in detail is known fact, but I expect from you to touch the solution part of the setbacks. All the progrmmes which were commenced with foreign partnership completed in defined timeline. You gave the example or Arihant nuclear sub, CAG report says that its 10% indigenous only same with LCA apart from airframe nothing is Indian. It is better to go for Joint ventures rather than wasting decades in indigenousization. …..

We are using modular approach which I already mentioned to build ACC. ToT from scorpene will result in fast construction. CSL already has its hands full.

Solution is, developing more shipyard and developing them like we are making naval stations, better requirement analysis, well coordinated effort, constant progress report put under scanner and avoid loss of know how if the current demands are met.

Do you know why Airbus 380 got delayed by 6 months, taking away the lead it had on Boeing Dreamliner. The part made in France and in Germany, didn't fit together coz different softwares were used. One of Airbus senior executive was fired for this, and Airbus had fear of bankruptcy due to delay in delivery to airlines, loosing customers to Boeing.

My point is, these things happen even at giant private companies like Booing, Airbus, one ofthe solution is private partners. I completely agree with joint ventures, but for limited time period. Or giving entire project to private players.