India pulls financial trigger On Russia, puts PAK-FA in slow mode

[Perpendicular]

Contrary to this old article development of PAKFA is progressing smoothly. With ongoing trials of guided missiles and weapons bay. What we paid for the development of the fighter apart from the actual cost of the plane will actually help us in some way with AMCA definitely, Regardless of whatever Indian input has been in the project.
PAKFA will be India’s first 5th gen fighter which will be beneficiary to AMCA development.

 

[randomradio]

Pak-FA is massively underfunded and if it's going to cost 2 or even 3 times more than a Su-35 don't think it's going to be successful.

The FGFA is set to cost $225M flyaway versus Su-35's $45M price tag. It will cost 5 times more.

IAF plans to buy 154 as first tranche. Overall plan is to buy well over 300 jets.

if Russia is having a hard time developing a 5th gen fighter do you honestly think India will fair better with it's own?

India is known to underfund ambitious programs.

No.

AMCA is at least a $20 billion dollar R&D project

No. You can't compare India's costs to America's costs.

The total PAK FA/FGFA R&D program is bigger than the F-22 and the F-35 combined. That's why even with 400 jets planned + another 600 for export, the flyaway cost is almost twice that of the F-22's.

 

[C130]

The FGFA is set to cost $225M flyaway versus Su-35's $45M price tag. It will cost 5 times more.

IAF plans to buy 154 as first tranche. Overall plan is to buy well over 300 jets.



No.



No. You can't compare India's costs to America's costs.

The total PAK FA/FGFA R&D program is bigger than the F-22 and the F-35 combined. That's why even with 400 jets planned + another 600 for export, the flyaway cost is almost twice that of the F-22's.

$225 million flyaway pretty sure India is planning to aquire less than 154 for the first tranche more like less than 50 as of right now. which going buy your $225 million figure and the 36 Rafale would be around $15 to $20 billion for 50 Su-50 when I think the Super Su-30 is just as good for 1/5th the cost


just look at India previous programs all underfunded and including it's engine development in Kaveri


F-22 R&D was $28 billion and F-35 is $55 billion, so $83 billion just to develop them. are you saying the Pak-FA has received more than $83 billion dollars to develop?? It's more like $20 billion which is why I say it would cost India around the same much for AMCA, but it could be cheaper if AMCA uses most of the systems of the Pak-FA , and not having to develop a 5th gen engine for it will save $ billions as well..

alternate scenerio India buying 200 F-35A by 2025 would the easiest cheapest route than potentially wasting money on Pak-FA and AMCA IMO

buy more Super Su-30 instead of funding Pak-FA
buy 200 F-35A for fifth gen instead of AMCA

 

[Stephen Cohen]

There were several news items of Rafale cancelled

But it was done finally

This will also happen

 

[Penguin]

http://theaviationist.com/2015/04/07/t-50-pak-fa-new-problems/

Russian Deputy Minister of Defence Yuri Borisov, has recently announced that the PAK-FA programme may be halted or adjusted, due to the dire conditions of Russia’s economy, affected by the Ukrainian crisis and the subsequent (proxy war and) EU sanctions.

Initially, the Russian Air Force was expected to procure more than 150 PAK-FA next generation stealth fighter jets, with the first examples to be delivered to the active squadrons in 2016. In December 2014, the RuAF plans was to receive the first 55 fighters by 2020.

However, as announced by Russia’s MoD last month, the production will be slowed down and the initial order cut to 12 jets, out of which only 2-3 units will be given to India

meanwhile in India , another story unfolds

Considering the PAK-FA project now will make only 12 planes out of which india will get may be 1-2 planes , they decided they will not invest cash with Russia

Shocking development since , India has never sided so bluntly against Russian interest before

It won't be surprising if Russia goes by itself to complete the PAK-FA project or may be involve China in its Manufacturing

(How) Is THIS related to THAT other story ( https://defence.pk/threads/russia-s...for-the-net-generation-transport-plane.426888 /) ???

 

[Abingdonboy]

I agree it will be tough for India. A lot of "soft" work is done on AMCA already (basic design and project feasibility). Engine will be either GE-F414-IN6 or enhanced EJ which takes huge pressure off our shoulders.(new airframe will be coupled with reliable engine) But real work has not been started yet and this time the lead integrator will be the ADA instead of our state led co - HAL. more private sector participation is there and the plane is not in the heavy catogory. This time we also have many aerospace labs already established (which was not the case with the LCA , most infra needed to be made from scratch.)

We are basically banking on the following
LCA experience (biggest plus)
ToT in Rafael deal(mostly production tech but IDK what exactly India will get.)
Ability to buy hard to develop tech from western/Israeli/Russian Firms.
Better MIC due to mandatory sourcing requirement of Indian Govt.
@Abingdonboy can you list more reasons why AMCA will sail smoother?

Well you've already covered them brother and like you have said the expereince from the LCA will be most critical for the success of the AMCA- there has already been a vast investment made in setting up of certain infrastrucutre and ecosytems that will be leveraged for the AMCA and will not require starting from scratch- the Rafale ToT/MII effort will further act as a catalyst for this. The trouble with the LCA was that at every stage the ADA/HAL were having to create the know how first and then apply it- even the most basic of areas such as lightening test facilities.

Furthermore, the purchasing power of India is far greater today and India is in a postion to throw money at a problem rahter than extending timelines because of a paucity of funds.

 

[vostok]

T-50 R&D is $8.2 billion (without FGFA R&D).

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

What are chance of China - Russia finishing this project as a team?

China has the necessary funding and I think it would make sense

 

[xyxmt]

This India country i keep hearing about, must be a very rich and powerful country, where is it located?

 

[AugenBlick]

$225 million flyaway pretty sure India is planning to aquire less than 154 for the first tranche more like less than 50 as of right now. which going buy your $225 million figure and the 36 Rafale would be around $15 to $20 billion for 50 Su-50 when I think the Super Su-30 is just as good for 1/5th the cost


just look at India previous programs all underfunded and including it's engine development in Kaveri


F-22 R&D was $28 billion and F-35 is $55 billion, so $83 billion just to develop them. are you saying the Pak-FA has received more than $83 billion dollars to develop?? It's more like $20 billion which is why I say it would cost India around the same much for AMCA, but it could be cheaper if AMCA uses most of the systems of the Pak-FA , and not having to develop a 5th gen engine for it will save $ billions as well..

alternate scenerio India buying 200 F-35A by 2025 would the easiest cheapest route than potentially wasting money on Pak-FA and AMCA IMO

buy more Super Su-30 instead of funding Pak-FA
buy 200 F-35A for fifth gen instead of AMCA

F 35 does not suite our needs. Now...If F22 was on sale ...

 

[randomradio]

$225 million flyaway pretty sure India is planning to aquire less than 154 for the first tranche more like less than 50 as of right now. which going buy your $225 million figure and the 36 Rafale would be around $15 to $20 billion for 50 Su-50 when I think the Super Su-30 is just as good for 1/5th the cost

No. The FGFA is at a whole different level compared to all existing aircraft today, including the F-22/F-35. The FGFA will carry VC engines plus avionics that are not planned even on the F-35 today.

The draft agreement has 154 aircraft. The less than 50 aircraft contract, actually 60 aircraft, is for the Russian version of PAK FA Stage 2. The govt is contemplating whether to go for it or not.

The earlier plans were as follows
1. 60 PAK FAs.
2. 154 FGFAs.
3. 154 FGFAs + 60 PAK FAs.

Since a few months ago, plan 1 was scrapped, plan 2 was approved and plan 3 is under consideration.

Rafale deal for 36 is $8.8B. Eventually, 90 more will be made in India, numbers may go up to 180.

just look at India previous programs all underfunded and including it's engine development in Kaveri

Kaveri development has been completed successfully. Even though the main engine won't be used because the LCA has become overweight, derivative versions will be used in other aircraft, ships, tanks and trains.

F-22 R&D was $28 billion and F-35 is $55 billion, so $83 billion just to develop them. are you saying the Pak-FA has received more than $83 billion dollars to develop?? It's more like $20 billion which is why I say it would cost India around the same much for AMCA, but it could be cheaper if AMCA uses most of the systems of the Pak-FA , and not having to develop a 5th gen engine for it will save $ billions as well..

Weirdly enough, you've hit the nail on the head. That is the figure that India and Russia plan to put into the PAK FA program, but it is a lot more complicated to explain it because it doesn't work dollar for dollar compared to the US. The PAK FA program is much bigger than you believe, if not the Russians would have gone alone. Anyway, the F-35's development program has a STOVL and navy version. The PAK FA's navy version will be separate from the current development plan.

AMCA is being developed in an entirely different ecosystem and it will be developed simultaneously with LCA and IUSAV. So AMCA will benefit from the other two programs.

Anyway, the initial plan for the first phase of the AMCA is $4.5B. AMCA is also set to cost $200M flyaway.

alternate scenerio India buying 200 F-35A by 2025 would the easiest cheapest route than potentially wasting money on Pak-FA and AMCA IMO

The F-35 is obsolete and is not a type of aircraft India is interested in. India wants air superiority aircraft. And the F-35 won't achieve FOC until 2024, so IAF won't be interested in waiting for the F-35 until then. The post-2024 F-35 will be outclassed by the post-2021 Rafale completely.

AMCA is about the same size and weight as the F-15, with similar levels of thrust. It's being made for high altitude combat. I actually believe the Israelis may opt for AMCA to replace their F-15s as their upper end with the F-35s replacing the F-16s as their lower end.

buy more Super Su-30 instead of funding Pak-FA

Super Sukhoi is obsolete compared to PAK FA.

 

[Nattmara]

The F-35 is obsolete

Whatever you say, bud. Whatever you say.

Behold obsolescence!

Funny story; if the F-35 didn't meet our overly complex and unrealistic expectations, we were prepared to purchase the Gripen NG instead.

Would you like to guess which we picked?

@gambit @500 Does you hate it when you buy an "obsolete" aircraft?

 

[randomradio]

Whatever you say, bud. Whatever you say.

Behold obsolescence!

Funny story; if the F-35 didn't meet our overly complex and unrealistic expectations, we were prepared to purchase the Gripen NG instead.

Would you like to guess which we picked?

@gambit @500 Does you hate it when you buy an "obsolete" aircraft?

The US doesn't buy foreign aircraft even if it's better. Like the Airbus Boeing tanker competition. Airbus won it fair and square, the USAF decided to cancel the tender and award the contract to Boeing.

Look at the plans for 6th gen today, the USAF wants to either modify the F-22 or F-35 instead of starting a new design. They basically want another PAK FA. The peers are catching up and if something's not done quickly, they will overtake.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/usaf-wants-on-time-f-x-not-more-f-22s-422950/

“Because we want to do it faster and don’t want to do another 20-year development programme for a whole host of reasons, we’ll try and go with technology that are at a high readiness level now with manufacturing capabilities that are at a high readiness level now,” Lt Gen James Holmes tells a Senate Armed Services subcommittee panel in response to questions about restarting F-22 production.

“I think it’s completely possible as we get the requirements that there may be competitors that bid on modification of an existing technology or platform like the F-22 and the F-35.”

You don't want to give the Russians a 10-15 years head start in fielding the better aircraft, do you?

The only reason why the F-35 survives today, as told by various US officials, 'it's too big to be canceled'. What does that tell you?

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

Whatever you say, bud. Whatever you say.

Behold obsolescence!

Funny story; if the F-35 didn't meet our overly complex and unrealistic expectations, we were prepared to purchase the Gripen NG instead.

Would you like to guess which we picked?

@gambit @500 Does you hate it when you buy an "obsolete" aircraft?

Everyone knows that the main driver between the F-35 selection in Norway was the desire to sell
the JSM Joint Strike Missile to the U.S. which clearly would not happen, if the Gripen NG was selected.
So the Norwegians had to invent operating cost for the Gripen, which had no relation with real world figures.
In the end calculation, the Gripen NG would be more expensive in the long run, even if the Gripen NG
had been delivered free of charge,

 

[Spectre]

I believe the NSM was the main driver, from which the JSM was derived. It's being purchased by the US Navy for use on the Littoral Combat Ships:

The Navy's Littoral Combat Ships | Page 3 | The American Military Forum

Cost was a concern, despite SAAB's insistence our calculations were inaccurate, but the more problematic issue with exploring the Gripen NG was that the US was refusing to sell Sweden AESA radars until Norway purchased the F-35. Some strong arming by the US, as the Gripen variants are dependent on US equipment.

But that still doesn't solve the issue of the F-18, upgraded F-16, Typhoon or Rafale, especially when the F-35's industrial benefits haven't panned out as expected for Norwegian companies - because we're a low-level Tier 3 partner in the JSF program.

To date the only tangible benefit was the JSM.

So if the industrial benefits aren't there, the cost of the airframe still too high and F-35 is obsolete, as Randomradio says without supporting that notion, what's the reason for continuing our participation in the program when alternatives offer better terms?



Yup and here's where SAAB threw a major b*tchfest, likely because the calculations were inaccurately derived.

Goodwill from USA, overall defence relationship including security partnership, diplomatic and political strong arming, clout of LM, lure of procuring the only stealth aircraft available for acquisition.