India Pakistan-Confronting Realities: Opinion

[blueoval79]

This is an interesting Article I read in "Jang.com.pk" online edition, and I believe its worth a read and discussion.




Confronting reality

With a $1.4 trillion GNP, India ranks as the world's 10th largest economy. The Indian leadership has been working along the lines of a well conceived plan to transform India into a military and strategic power. They plan to spend $100 billion during the next ten years on acquisitions to modernise the structure of their forces and the arms buildup will continue until they feel confident of having achieved a level of conventional and strategic parity with China.

Delhi's competitive nature of its relationship with China fits remarkably well with the US' designs and grand strategy in the region. For Pakistan to expect that India would restrain its regional or global aspirations to reduce Pakistan's insecurities would be unrealistic. This development has to be viewed in the context of the India-China-US triangle. The other converging factor between the US and India is the fight against the Islamic radical elements.

There is no doubt that the Mumbai incident (26/11) has left a huge imprint on the Indian psyche. This fact is not well understood in Pakistan and understandably so because terrorist acts are a common occurrence here. Indians of course argue that militants that are now hurting Pakistan are its own creation and that it has failed to stop these organisations from operating freely.

The responsibility on the leadership of both sides is to ensure that the militant organisations do not become so strong as to put at risk the lives of millions of people. And any disaster of this nature can only be averted through dialogue and mature conduct as nuclear powers. There is also a need to educate the public of the consequences of a nuclear catastrophe.

It is an irony of fate that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is among the last generation of Indian leaders who genuinely desire peace with Pakistan. He indicated even during his first term in the office that he was serious in bringing about a rapprochement with Pakistan. But he was then heading a minority government and was too preoccupied with the Indo-US nuclear deal. With great difficulty he overcame the opposition of the coalition partners to the deal and at one occasion he had to put at stake the future of his government.

In his second term, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh heads a government in which Congress is in clear majority. Despite the serious setback in Indo-Pak relations and strong opposition from within his party, Manmohan Singh is supposedly still interested in working out an Indo-Pakistan deal. The problem is that he is not sufficiently strong to overcome the opposition from within the party and the establishment to take the leap forward for finding a solution to Kashmir and other problems that have bedeviled the relationship between the two countries.

The PPP and all other major political parties on our side are willing to extend the hand of friendship and the government has repeatedly expressed its desire to engage in a structured dialogue with India. But with the low credibility of our top leadership and their weak grip over major policy issues, India would prefer to stall. Also, our military's attitude towards jihadi groups and our relations with India also seems to be unclear. Last year our economy grew at two per cent as compared to India's which was 7.5 per cent and may move to 9-10 per cent in the coming years. With militancy still not under control, our economy will remain under great distress. We must confront the reality of how will we sustain a growing defence budget with a feeble economy and lackluster governance.

Confronting reality

 

[IceCold]

We are well aware of the problems that we are facing and also its adverse effects on our economy, however whats mostly hurting our economy is bad management by the GOP. They still havent sorted out the power crisis and its one of the huge factors for our economy to constantly decline. Other is ofcourse the WOT. But even with all of this stuff going we have managed to retain a minimum credible deterrence against a much bigger oppenent and will continue to do so.
Also i strongly disagree with the authors notion that Manmohan Singh is serious in establishing peace with Pakistan, the only thing that he does seem to be serious in is his attempts to isolate Pakistan and perhaps even declare it a terrorist state and a constant threat of surgical strikes.Certainly these factors dont add up to the equation of peace here contrary to the authors believe..

 

[blueoval79]

Mismanagement by GOP is an internal issue for Pakistan and there is hardly anything India can do .... Remember Pakistan was fairing better than India till about 1970's and Slightly better than India till about 1990's....and then things changed drastically....it became better for India ...and bad for Pakistan.....mostly because Pakistan's choice of siding US in the Cold War.....and then letting Americans almost control the country by playing power games inside Pakistan.....it was military on the one side and Democratic system on the other side....and most of the time military won...because it suited US.

So now its a choice Pakistan has to make.....and Some educated and talented Pakistanis would have to lead the way from the front....and what I have read from Newspapers is that most Pakistanis tend to move abroad after a good education...so good talent gets hijacked.


AS for Indian threats of so called surgical strikes...I don't remember the last time this kind of statement was made officially....though there have been some defense equipments like missiles ...that have been inducted ...and then people mentioned that they equipment has surgical strike capabilities......may be people across the border are reading too much in between the lines.....

About India efforts to declare Pakistan as a terrorist nation.....just think....last diplomatic offensive from India was focussed at making sure that Pakistan takes action against the so called non state actors that conduct attacks inside India now and then....and tell me ...is India doing anything wrong with that.

 

[third eye]

An opinion close to reality.

MMS is genuinely keen to mend fences as I feel Mush too was rather belatedly in the last stages of his stay .

Over the 60 + years, attitudes have hardened to a point that neither side can ever get a solution as desired by them individually. Now, with the pre eminence of hardliners who are center stage in Pak & have nuisance value in India things get murkier.

Whichever you look at it accepting realities on the ground & converting the LC to IB is the only option. If not, then the current bad situation shall prevail.

 

[Spring Onion]

And the real irony of fate is that If PMs, Presidents of India and Pakistan could have the right to decide for peace or war then it would have been done long ago.

Indeed they are not the only ones so keep your fingers crossed and pray sense prevails in the long run.

 

[Avatar]

We are well aware of the problems that we are facing and also its adverse effects on our economy, however whats mostly hurting our economy is bad management by the GOP. They still havent sorted out the power crisis and its one of the huge factors for our economy to constantly decline. Other is ofcourse the WOT. But even with all of this stuff going we have managed to retain a minimum credible deterrence against a much bigger oppenent and will continue to do so.
Also i strongly disagree with the authors notion that Manmohan Singh is serious in establishing peace with Pakistan, the only thing that he does seem to be serious in is his attempts to isolate Pakistan and perhaps even declare it a terrorist state and a constant threat of surgical strikes.Certainly these factors dont add up to the equation of peace here contrary to the authors believe..

Wow, when was the last time India threatened surgical strikes ? After 26/11, the media declared that surgical strikes were just an option. They also emphasized putting political pressure on Pakistan to dismantle the camps. However, Pakistan denied any involvement and within a year took a U-Turn accepting that ALL terrorists were Pakistani's, to the dismay of it's citizens. During the Mumbai operations were going on the sheer amount of propaganda going on **** forums was mind dazzling. Everyone knew the truth yet were making hysterically lame statements such as "This is false flag RAW operation", "That terrorist is talking in Hindi" etc. You should appreciate India for acting sensibly rather than emotionally. A surgical strike could have escalated into a nuclear war, and you and I might not be discussing here right now.

Also, your country regularly sends Jehadi's supported by your army. We have video footage and thermal video footage to prove the same. I wonder how Pakistan would react if India was involved in a terrorist attack of such magnitude in Paksitan. India only threatened surgical strikes but I'm sure your leaders would make promises to nuke India.

Truth is, another 26/11 is imminent, and India might get emotional this time.

 

[IMADreamer]

1.I think we should also talks separatly with "pakistan army and ISI" as those guys are real power in pakistaan.


2.We need to develop our covert-operational capability too(As it has been done very limited by last 3 Indian PM ) so that we can give signal to pakistaan army that if you guys are thinking that if you can harm indian in covert operation than we can harm you more so better talk seriously .

3.We should expand our operational military capability till that level that pakistani establishment can't even think to match because untill they will think they can fight they will fight.(not at the same palestine/israil level but something like that and it will be in future as we are shifting our focus from pakistan to china).

4.We should develop better relationship which all three country(Saudi arabia/USA/China).as thease are the counties which have greater influence in pakistaan.

 

[ek_indian]

1.I think we should also talks separatly with "pakistan army and ISI" as those guys are real power in pakistaan.

India can not for several reason ranging from ideological to political ro protocal issues.

2.We should expand our operational military capability till that level that pakistani establishment can't even think to match because untill they will think they can fight they will fight.(not at the same palestine/israil level but something like that and it will be in future as we are shifting our focus from pakistan to china).

This is one hell of immature response.

3.We should develop better relationship which all three country(Saudi arabia/USA/China).as thease are the counties which have greater influence in pakistaan.

Again what makeds you think we are not doing it. And why these three nations only?

@topic:
I only wish Mussaraf had been in power for some more time. Situation could be different otherwise.
Also I do not believe in "MMS is last man who wants peace" thing, there are many more. I agree there are critics and opposition to this as well. However govt tries to take a well calculated steps to normalize relations. Even one of the biggest confidence building exercise was eexecuted in BJP era.

 

[Avatar]

1.I think we should also talks separatly with "pakistan army and ISI" as those guys are real power in pakistaan.

2.We should expand our operational military capability till that level that pakistani establishment can't even think to match because untill they will think they can fight they will fight.(not at the same palestine/israil level but something like that and it will be in future as we are shifting our focus from pakistan to china).

3.We should develop better relationship which all three country(Saudi arabia/USA/China).as thease are the counties which have greater influence in pakistaan.

Absolutely right.

When Hillary Clinton went to US she spent half hour meeting with the government heads and 3 hours meeting with ISI and Army Chiefs. The Americans know whom to talk to.

2) I think even if we achieve that, Pakistan will still try to compete even at the cost of growth/stability. However, their stance will change and if a war does break out there will be a high probability of them going nuclear. I don't know whether they pretend to or actually believe that India is going to be the aggressor in the next war. Hence most ****'s claim they have enough to defend themselves. However I as most Indian citizens know that India would never go to war with any other country, inferior or superior to them, unless they have a damn good reason. (Another 26/11 or something worse)

3) Agree, although that might not help much.

Additional notes:
As the balance of power seems to bending in India's favor, some people to satisfy their own insecurities believe that China will interfere and defeat India and Pak can have Kashmir while China takes AP. To further strengthen their claims they refer to IA Chief's statement that India is prepared IN CASE there is a two front war. Every military in the world makes strategic plans even though they might NEVER be used. I know that despite reading this nothing is going to change but I thought common sense deserves a chance.

 

[IMADreamer]

India can not for several reason ranging from ideological to political ro protocal issues.

i fully agree but in my opinion we have to talk from those guys who can deliver otherwise what is a purpose if they can't deliver.
(we should learn from american they knows who are a real power in pakistan so they just side line the "Jardari" and talking separately(with a umbrella of a democratic goverment) on various occasions from military establishment.)

This is one hell of immature response.

it looks immature response but actully it is not.
read top level military strategiest of pakistaan they have a fear that if kashmir issue will not solve early than indian will gain so much power(both military and economically) and both counties gap will be so huge that kashmir issue will never be solve in future then.

(And this was the main reason among lots of other reasons that why mushraf start genuine talks from india and we were so close on kasmir issue.)

Again what makes you think we are not doing it. And why these three nations only?

no i am not saying that we should only talk with these 3(we are already doing) but the level of co-operation should be deep-larger and strong.

i have named these 3 counties because these 3 counties are a 3 pillor (back-bone )of a Pakistani foreign policy.

the more we hit the pillor the more struture will be week and force to compromise.
look recent MMS visit in saudi arebia and watch pakistani media.
then you will realize how much they have frustrated and disappointment from this visit.

@topic:
I only wish Mussaraf had been in power for some more time. Situation could be different otherwise.

that's why i said india is little-bit unlucky..
1.when Kashmir issue was almost going to solve(Unfortunately Musharraf lost his credibility)

2.when zardari came into a power and give statement that india is not our enemy and we have not first use nuclear policy again india and we want peace and greater co-operation from india(Unfortunately 26/11 happen)

3.when india economy got 9% pace(then recession came,yahh we fight and win but we loses 2-3 yrs to overcome this prob.)

 

[IMADreamer]

Also I do not believe in "MMS is last man who wants peace" thing, there are many more. I agree there are critics and opposition to this as well. However govt tries to take a well calculated steps to normalize relations. Even one of the biggest confidence building exercise was eexecuted in BJP era.

Fully agreed

Even one of the biggest confidence building exercise was executed in BJP era.

just think why this was possible because these were the two parties who had an exemist view about these issue .
When two real parties will agreed to talk then defenatly something will come and vice -versa.

 

[ek_indian]

When Hillary Clinton went to US she spent half hour meeting with the government heads and 3 hours meeting with ISI and Army Chiefs. The Americans know whom to talk to.

Again partially incorrect. Pakistan has no boundary related issue with USA nor they are neighbours as in case of India. USA has its interests where army/intelligence plays a far bigger role comparatively. Therefore they talked.
It might be as there is some secret channel between Indian and Pakistani intelligence as well. (I know far fetched but not impossible though). However India can not admit to talk to any army.

2) I think even if we achieve that, Pakistan will still try to compete even at the cost of growth/stability. However, their stance will change and if a war does break out there will be a high probability of them going nuclear. I don't know whether they pretend to or actually believe that India is going to be the aggressor in the next war. Hence most ****'s claim they have enough to defend themselves. However I as most Indian citizens know that India would never go to war with any other country, inferior or superior to them, unless they have a damn good reason. (Another 26/11 or something worse)

How Pakistan is governed, this is none of India's business. Only thing we need to care about our interest (trade, security etc.) and we are done. IMO India is doing a good job as such. All institutions are getting strength.

As the balance of power seems to bending in India's favor, some people to satisfy their own insecurities believe that China will interfere and defeat India and Pak can have Kashmir while China takes AP. To further strengthen their claims they refer to IA Chief's statement that India is prepared IN CASE there is a two front war. Every military in the world makes strategic plans even though they might NEVER be used. I know that despite reading this nothing is going to change but I thought common sense deserves a chance.

I agree with the part that it is highly unlikely that anyone else would interfere overtly between India and Pakistan. Everyone has some interest with India.

 

[ek_indian]

i fully agree but in my opinion we have talk from those guys who can deliver otherwise what is a purpose if they can't deliver.
(we should learn from american they knows who are a real power in pakistan so they just side line the "Jardari" and talking separately(with a umbrella of a democratic goverment) on various occasions from military establishment.)

If you ask me, USA has to learn diplomacy from us. USA is a powerful but hated. It tries to force the things. The ones who agreed even, remains suspicious to its intention.

it looks immature response but actully it is not.
read top level military strategiest of pakistaan they have a fear that if kashmir issue will not solve early than indian will gain so much power(both military and economically) and both counties gap will be so huge that kashmir issue will never be solve in future then.

(And this was the main reason among lots of the reasons that why mushraf start genuine talks from india and we were so close on kasmir issue.)

Apart from Kashmir, there are other internal issues for noth India and Pakistan. The thread is not about Kashmir.

no i am not saying that we should only talk with these 3(we are already doing) but the level of co-operation should be deep-larger and strong.


i have named these 3 counties because these 3 counties are a 3 pillor (back-bone )of a Pakistani foreign policy.

USA has far more interest with India. Whether it is recently developed defense ties or trump card economic issues.

 

[IceCold]

Wow, when was the last time India threatened surgical strikes ? After 26/11, the media declared that surgical strikes were just an option. They also emphasized putting political pressure on Pakistan to dismantle the camps. However, Pakistan denied any involvement and within a year took a U-Turn accepting that ALL terrorists were Pakistani's, to the dismay of it's citizens. During the Mumbai operations were going on the sheer amount of propaganda going on **** forums was mind dazzling. Everyone knew the truth yet were making hysterically lame statements such as "This is false flag RAW operation", "That terrorist is talking in Hindi" etc. You should appreciate India for acting sensibly rather than emotionally. A surgical strike could have escalated into a nuclear war, and you and I might not be discussing here right now.

Also, your country regularly sends Jehadi's supported by your army. We have video footage and thermal video footage to prove the same. I wonder how Pakistan would react if India was involved in a terrorist attack of such magnitude in Paksitan. India only threatened surgical strikes but I'm sure your leaders would make promises to nuke India.

Blah blah blah....................................anything else?? seriously you wana debate how about keep the indian nonsense aside for a moment.
Last time we checked it was India that is threatning both China and Pakistan with war and not the other way round so dont get me started on that.
I dont know which planet you are living on but time for you to come back to earth.

Truth is, another 26/11 is imminent, and India might get emotional this time.

Does not impress me, we have heard this rhetotic before as well.

 

[IceCold]

Mismanagement by GOP is an internal issue for Pakistan and there is hardly anything India can do .... Remember Pakistan was fairing better than India till about 1970's and Slightly better than India till about 1990's....and then things changed drastically....it became better for India ...and bad for Pakistan.....mostly because Pakistan's choice of siding US in the Cold War.....and then letting Americans almost control the country by playing power games inside Pakistan.....it was military on the one side and Democratic system on the other side....and most of the time military won...because it suited US.

So now its a choice Pakistan has to make.....and Some educated and talented Pakistanis would have to lead the way from the front....and what I have read from Newspapers is that most Pakistanis tend to move abroad after a good education...so good talent gets hijacked.


AS for Indian threats of so called surgical strikes...I don't remember the last time this kind of statement was made officially....though there have been some defense equipments like missiles ...that have been inducted ...and then people mentioned that they equipment has surgical strike capabilities......may be people across the border are reading too much in between the lines.....

About India efforts to declare Pakistan as a terrorist nation.....just think....last diplomatic offensive from India was focussed at making sure that Pakistan takes action against the so called non state actors that conduct attacks inside India now and then....and tell me ...is India doing anything wrong with that.

Ok let me get this straight, are you denying the fact that India on numerous occasions threaten Pakistan with surgical strikes, even violated our airspace? Do you also deny that your country recently threaten war not just against Pakistan but also China?
And for the last part, India made every diplomatic move that it could to declare Pakistan a terrorist state, why do you think India went to the UN in the first place, just to declare JUD a terrorist organisation? That would be an understatement.