India Next Door, China Over the Horizon: The View from South Asia

[Chinese-Dragon]

Actually, China has a lower dependency ratio than India does, and this is likely to continue for a very long time.

China and India, 2025 | RAND Report

After 2030 dependency ration is increasing for China.

Yes, so this much acclaimed "demographic advantage" that Indians love to talk about, doesn't actually exist.

 

[CardSharp]

No, your figures are wrong. India growth rate is 8.1%

India's growth to slow at 8.1% in '11: Unctad

Anyway, you like it or not India growth rate is going to surpass that of China by 2020....pure economics

You realize if your growth rate is going pass China's in 2020, that there is still a decade of the gap between China and India widening right?


Aren't you some sort of business major?

 

[IndoCarib]

Yes, so this much acclaimed "demographic advantage" that Indians love to talk about, doesn't actually exist.

Or it does exist !

 

[CardSharp]

First of all, the figure clearly showing that India has younger populations

It's a graph of the dependency ratio, how do you get age from that graph?

 

[Splurgenxs]

It's a graph of the dependency ratio, how do you get age from that graph?

Well u don't ...but considering India is a younger country(so young are more in number than old) ...the young are most probable to be contributing on the dependency rates.

Where as in china its lower already as more are working to those dependent on them (comparatively).

 

[muse]

And for Pakistan, the only way it can change viewing India's economic and military rise, is to focus on it's own economic rise - this and not any confession based policy, is key to ensuring that the Pakistan state can honor the legacy and rationale of it's founding and existence, even as it affords lives of dignity to her population, and can satisfy the populations ASPIRATIONS and EXPECTATIONS.

Failure to liberalize the economy and getting the state out of the business of being in business, as the state protects private and public property and investment, will be instrumental in ensuring that the present form of government in Pakistan will continue to be seen as model deserving preservation.

 

[SyrianChristianPatriot]

And for Pakistan, the only way it can change viewing India's economic and military rise, is to focus on it's own economic rise - this and not any confession based policy, is key to ensuring that the Pakistan state can honor the legacy and rationale of it's founding and existence, even as it affords lives of dignity to her population, and can satisfy the populations ASPIRATIONS and EXPECTATIONS.

Failure to liberalize the economy and getting the state out of the business of being in business, as the state protects private and public property and investment, will be instrumental in ensuring that the present form of government in Pakistan will continue to be seen as model deserving preservation.

Why not just let China Annex Pakistan ?

 

[Jade]

You realize if your growth rate is going pass China's in 2020, that there is still a decade of the gap between China and India widening right?


Aren't you some sort of business major?

Yes, there is. Am I denying it?

 

[Jade]

It's a graph of the dependency ratio, how do you get age from that graph?

Yes you can get the relative proportion of younger and older population from the graph. Dependency could be of two types. One, if the relative populations is younger than 21 and second, if the relative populations is older than 60. Because of large sections of ‘younger than 21’ in India, India has higher dependency ratio now. By 2030 because of large sections of ‘older than 60’ in China, China will have higher dependency by 2030

 

[Jade]

Yes, so this much acclaimed "demographic advantage" that Indians love to talk about, doesn't actually exist.

The rand report and the graph clearly doesn’t dispute the fact that India has huge advantage over China because of democratic dividend, it in fact supports it. If you observe the graph, China is enjoying the lowest dependency ratio now (2010). No wonder the gap between India and Chinese growth rate is higher. From now on India is clearly closing the gap with China’s dependency ratio increasing while India’s decreasing

The reason why India’s growth will surpass China’s much before 2030 because a younger one is better educated, his/her output will be higher, and he/she will be able to learn faster new things than a older one.

China will fizzle out before it can peak

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

The rand report and the graph clearly doesn?t dispute the fact that India has huge advantage over China because of democratic dividend, it in fact supports it. The reason why India?s growth will surpass China?s much before 2030 because a younger one is better educated, his/her output will be higher, and he/she will be able to learn faster new things than a older one.

China will fizzle out before it can peak

Did you even read the Rand report? They said that China would continue to grow faster than India for several more decades.

And even IF you somehow managed to match our percentage growth rate... 10% of 6 trillion, is a LOT more than 10% of 1.5 trillion.

China will fizzle out before it can peak

We've already had three decades of double digit growth.

Whereas India hasn't even been able to sustain double-digit growth in the first place!

In fact, your economy is slowing down right now, to 7%. The game is over before it had even started.

 

[danger007]

LOL...what a joke.

---------- Post added at 07:46 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:44 AM ----------



LOL...what a joke.

by the way, economic numbers in India is faked too. Politicians tell the Statistics to fabricate the number, not a thing in India.

here it comes troller again..officer on duty.

 

[muse]

Why not just let China Annex Pakistan ?

Why would China want to do that? If you look at Pakistan from the perspective of it's politicians,both civilians and otherwise, things hunky dory -the getting is good and there is more than enough for everybody- meanwhile if the "Awaam" want to be Arabs in order to be Muslims, sure why not, after all, the voice of the people is the voice of god --- and that's mostly because Pakistan is like a black hole, it's just not connected to the world in the sense that you may be familiar with, in the sense that the ideas of universal values or progress and competition and making or being successful in life, are for the most part, alien ideas - people are used to having their expectations disregarded, they are used to losing --- because they are planning to win in the afterlife - follow?

Why would China or anyone else want a piece of that action? In China, "It is glorious to be rich", in Pakistan "It's worthless to be alive in Pakistan, unless you are connected in some way"

 

[Jade]

Did you even read the Rand report? They said that China would continue to grow faster than India for several more decades.

And even IF you somehow managed to match our percentage growth rate... 10% of 6 trillion, is a LOT more than 10% of 1.5 trillion.



We've already had three decades of double digit growth.

Whereas India hasn't even been able to sustain double-digit growth in the first place!

In fact, your economy is slowing down right now, to 7%. The game is over before it had even started.

Yes I did read the rand report, but China growing faster than India for several more decades is highly doubtful, neither does the report suggest. I suggest you read the recently released Citi bank report where they are predicting India growth rates to surpass China by 2016 or2017. As I said it is pure economics.

Yes 10% of 6 trillion is a LOT more than 10% of 1.5 trillion, but I am talking about growth rates. Anyway 6 trillion or 1.5 trillion does not matter much in future, growth rates matter. I don’t have to explain the magic of growth rates to Chinese. They have experienced first hand

Even if India were to grow by 7%, the figure which I highly doubt. It would not concern me much. This would be a one of event. As I said China will fizzle out before it can peak

 

[below_freezing]

Yes I did read the rand report, but China growing faster than India for several more decades is highly doubtful, neither does the report suggest. I suggest you read the recently released Citi bank report where they are predicting India growth rates to surpass China by 2016 or2017. As I said it is pure economics.

Yes 10% of 6 trillion is a LOT more than 10% of 1.5 trillion, but I am talking about growth rates. Anyway 6 trillion or 1.5 trillion does not matter much in future, growth rates matter. I don’t have to explain the magic of growth rates to Chinese. They have experienced first hand

Even if India were to grow by 7%, the figure which I highly doubt. It would not concern me much. This would be a one of event. As I said China will fizzle out before it can peak

China only needs 10 years for our growth to become solid like a rock. In general once a country passes the 10,000 USD/capita threshhold it never goes back down.