'India needs to be part of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor'

[Donald Trump]

There's already a thread on this!

However, the title is wrong. There is no proposal as yet for India joining the CPEC. General Hafiz Saeed and his ilk who call the shots in Pakistan will never let that happen!

 

[anant_s]

your loss then

Depends on how you want to see this.
One part of analysis is in Long term, are India and China looking at creating a direct means of Road and Rail link between themselves (at this moment most trade is through sea)?

http://www.srjis.com/srjis_new/images/articles/Mar-Apr2015/40.%20Ms.%20Shailza%20Dutt.pdf
now this trade has been growing at a great click and therefore there are 2 facts to be considered here:
1. The port of Gwadar is definitely significant for Pakistan and China (as it would avoid a lot of circumnavigation by allowing freight to move through land). But its trade importance is little to India, more so with Ports at Kandla and Mumbai with Western Dedicated freight corridor allowing feeder routes to move freight in and away from hinterlands in India on West.
2. Unless the route (& not to mention agreements between governments coupled with security situation in Afghanistan), the lucrative aspect of entry to Central Asia and further towards Urals, Europe and Mediterranean sea, through a sea link looks difficult (agree?). Therefore India is perhaps doing right by concentrating on Chahbar.

Finally, if some one really cares for future, i suppose, a Direct land route from India to Iran passing through Pakistan would be a real game changer as it would not only allowing access from Central Asia but also to middle eastern region, where trade is expected to grow multi folds in next decade or two.
@Serpentine @Irfan Baloch

Cheers!

 

[WAJsal]

Depends on how you want to see this.

(I do not have much knowledge on this topic, if something is incorrect. Kindly correct it)
There is a loss, as you will have to spend more, will share details later.

2. Unless the route (& not to mention agreements between governments coupled with security situation in Afghanistan), the lucrative aspect of entry to Central Asia and further towards Urals, Europe and Mediterranean sea, through a sea link looks difficult (agree?). Therefore India is perhaps doing right by concentrating on Chahbar

That is a big concern, isn't it. Security situation in Afghanistan. The proposed route in Afghanistan, is that area in control of Afghan government. Sorry for the silly question.

I found this; as i said, 'spend more.' Your thoughts?

Moving on, there are recent news on China becoming a part of Chabahar, i can provide sources. What are your thoughts on it, Chinese influence growing. It was always incorrect to compare the two ports. On our part, we should connect Afghanistan, as it has shown willingness to it, and get access to Central Asia. Not that we are not connected to it, we have access to it through China, easier route will help.

 

[somebozo]

India which is moaning and groaning should be included in CPEC..what a joke..please open your eyes wide and read...CPEC = China Pakistan Economic Corridor..sorry but we dont cave in to India as a regional bhagwan..Even Nepal told you to stay in limits..

 

[SpArK]

India which is moaning and groaning should be included in CPEC..what a joke..please open your eyes wide and read...CPEC = China Pakistan Economic Corridor..sorry but we dont cave in to India as a regional bhagwan..Even Nepal told you to stay in limits..

Its an opinion came in ur daily not from across..

We have no wish to join , we have alternative plans and we are working on.

And we dont need any toll money too.

 

[AyanRay]

(I do not have much knowledge on this topic, if something is incorrect. Kindly correct it)
There is a loss, as you will have to spend more, will share details later.

That is a big concern, isn't it. Security situation in Afghanistan. The proposed route in Afghanistan, is that area in control of Afghan government. Sorry for the silly question.

I found this; as i said, 'spend more.' Your thoughts?

Moving on, there are recent news on China becoming a part of Chabahar, i can provide sources. What are your thoughts on it, Chinese influence growing. It was always incorrect to compare the two ports. On our part, we should connect Afghanistan, as it has shown willingness to it, and get access to Central Asia. Not that we are not connected to it, we have access to it through China, easier route will help.

Yes going to CAR through Chabahar port will cost more than going through Pakistan. But what are the options really? Pakistan does not allow Indian trucks to go to Afghanistan. Chabahar port seems to be the best option available right now.

And least we forget, India will be spending huge sums (almost 30 billion USD) is creating infrastructures in Chabahar and also for a mega Urea plant there as it will be much more cheaper. The Urea from that plant will come through Chabahar to India.

And also we will have a permanent friend in the form of Iran, like we have a friend in the form of Afghanistan.

 

[anant_s]

There is a loss, as you will have to spend more, will share details later

Well i don't deny that sir, simple rule of logistics would say shorter and faster you move the freight, lower are the costs of the product or service you provide. So whenever country (or countries) create such a capabilities, they bring in obvious gains to local industry in vicinity. I'm reluctant to use the word loss here, but yes if you aren't part of such a system, you are definitely not gaining. thats the classical theoretical part of economic corridors.
Coming to CPEC, we have to look at this setup from more than just economic consideration. The project has been conceived as a mark of growing economic co-operation between two countries and while there is little doubt that this will huge benefit China mainly (owing to volume of trade generating from China and movement into China), it is going to immensely contribute to Pakistan as well.
Now when it comes to Indian participation, first look would say why not? India already has a good road link over which quite a bit of trading takes place. Last year for example the trade was USD 2.5 Billion (given the potential i would say it is a disappointing figure). However chequered history tells that usually economics is left as last consideration (probably a reason why despite having a major chunk of human population living in this region, quality of life is still poor).
As i said in my post above, foreign policy won't allow Indian participation in THIS project. but does that mean the end?
probably not.
China is co-operating with both Pakistan and India in its own way and it goes without saying that the projects will benefit China (justifiably so as an investing party) more. Its about time both India and Pakistan start looking beyond their history and start building for future. Average population in both nations is low and with a period of low growth for an extended period setting in most of Europe, its a chance to take advantage and pull populations out of poverty.

During funding debates for Dedicated freight corridor in India, JICA (Japan international Co-operation Agency), remarked that this rail project is probably the best bet for accelerating growth and industrial base buildup. This is true for any industrial corridor built anywhere in world. it not only brings prosperity (by means of industry, skill development, education etc) but also peace by engaging people of society (especially the ones neglected historically) to earn living respectably.

Moving on, there are recent news on China becoming a part of Chabahar, i can provide sources. What are your thoughts on it, Chinese influence growing.

I'm not very familiar with diplomatic relations between Iran and China, but with the kind of economic might China has, i won't be surprised if Iran warms up to Chinese presence and actually welcomes it.

It was always incorrect to compare the two ports.

Well a lot of times the ports of Chahbar and Gwadar are seen in a very monochromatic way of some kind of diplomatic chess in region. guess someone should start looking at it from what economic gains they are providing to the participating regions. India is for quite some time now looking a road entry to Central Asia and Chahbar is probably the best bet. I'm not sure how much time is it going to take for normalcy to return to Afghanistan (else a direct road/rail route from India Pakistan Afghanistan to further North would've been the best bet), but for accessing mineral and energy wealth (especially Gas), the port city of Chahbar becomes very vital.

 

[JOEY TRIBIANI]

No need to do so . let them watch and cry.

 

[WAJsal]

I'm not very familiar with diplomatic relations between Iran and China, but with the kind of economic might China has, i won't be surprised if Iran warms up to Chinese presence and actually welcomes it.

Well put together.
It had to do something with Chinese joining the project. A google search will help. Many Indians were unnecessarily hyping it, that India will get a naval base and etc,etc...

I'm not sure how much time is it going to take for normalcy to return to Afghanistan (else a direct road/rail route from India Pakistan Afghanistan to further North would've been the best bet), but for accessing mineral and energy wealth (especially Gas), the port city of Chahbar becomes very vital.

Becomes vital, but not the best route. The proposed route through Gwadar to India is the best, cheapest. Building pipelines or etc, etc will become almost unfeasible, considering this. India will have to go through all the way, i don't see it working.

 

[anant_s]

It had to do something with Chinese joining the project. A google search will help. Many Indians were unnecessarily hyping it, that India will get a naval base and etc,etc...

Well unless warships and submarines from other countries start to flock these ports, there are no reasons to get alarmed. Honestly don't see it happening.

Becomes vital, but not the best route. The proposed route through Gwadar to India is the best, cheapest. Building pipelines or etc, etc will become almost unfeasible, considering this. India will have to go through all the way, i don't see it working.

had that Iran Pakistan India Gas pipeline project worked properly, there could've been some hopes. Alas.
I agree for engineering and cost point of view, its not the most optimal solution but in probably the best available option.
sometime back i recall a question a blogger putting up on the subject. It said, what in case there is a difference of opinion sometime from now and Iran has to face sanctions afresh (its unlikely but we know how things move in international diplomacy). How badly would then trade to India get affected?
I think only time can answer this!

 

[WAJsal]

What joke is this?

Don't you Pakistanis understand that you could not interfere with shipping beyond 12 Nm fron your coast?

You failed to read this, my friend. No need to get aggressive. Please do elaborate...
regards

(I do not have much knowledge on this topic, if something is incorrect. Kindly correct it)

 

[somebozo]

Yes going to CAR through Chabahar port will cost more than going through Pakistan. But what are the options really? Pakistan does not allow Indian trucks to go to Afghanistan. Chabahar port seems to be the best option available right now.

And least we forget, India will be spending huge sums (almost 30 billion USD) is creating infrastructures in Chabahar and also for a mega Urea plant there as it will be much more cheaper. The Urea from that plant will come through Chabahar to India.

And also we will have a permanent friend in the form of Iran, like we have a friend in the form of Afghanistan.

Chahbar will soon become also a chinese area of intrest...Pak has no problem with Indian transit trade..but it cannot allow Indian trucking services to protect jobs for its local truckers..

 

[CHN Bamboo]

welcome 2 south asia. one of the most idiotic,backward and poor region in the world....

So it's time to change thinking now.
※...What's wrong with ur avatar....It's so scary...

 

[anant_s]

but it cannot allow Indian trucking services to protect jobs for its local truckers..

Sir, i beg to differ here.
the whole point we are making here is that if such a free trade road or highway exists, it will bring in more business. For example, say a container has to move from say Tehran to New Delhi, today it would have to go through road or rail to nearest sea port. from there after custom checks unloading and loading cycle through a ship journey to Mumbai. Now same checks, handling at port and then on a train from JNPT (Mumbai) to Tughlakabad (near Delhi) and from there to New Delhi. Conservatively speaking it could be anything from 15-21 days. Now assume same through a direct road link, i would undergo 3 border checks and probably a journey time of 4-5 days and another 3-4 days (on an average 1 in each country), so a max 8-10 days.
This difference of transit time reduction will bring in more traffic from maritime to land based. the growth of traffic means transporters in each of participating nation getting more business and not to mention development of ancillary facilities on the roads.
So while there may be a differential sharing of revenues for different countries (based on proportion of trade they generate), we cannot deny that in long term there will be a higher business growth for everyone involved.
Putting all of what i've written above in simple language, it might actually translate into higher jobs for truckers in Pakistan.

 

[Albatross]

Well,


200Nm is Exclusive Economic Zone where you could exploit resources, exclusively. It has no other perk.
.

http://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf

Thats true but in those 200 Nm area Pakistan has exclusive rights to drill and make offshore platforms where it wants so anyother state wishing to have a underwater pipeline needs to get NOC from Pakistan that she has no intention of putting up any infrastructure along all the route of pipeline and I am sure wherever India requests to get some space Pakistan will deny on the pretext of her own plans.

Secondly most importantly getting any such pipeline out of strait of hormuz is very hard as that area comes directly in 12 Nm range of Pakistan on one side and Oman on other so learn geography to understand where India stands in term of any such plans.