India loses fastest growing economy tag after sharp growth slowdown

[phancong]

At the time of demonetization, when some media predicted that India's growth rate shall slow down, Many chinese member had started celebration even before the GDP figures of 3rd quarter is out. They got disappointed subsequently. Few cheer leaders have started celebrating once again merely on the GDP figure of 4th quarter GDP data ignoring yearly figure of 7.1 which is still No 1.

Take away Indian H1B visa, India GDP will only grow at 4 percent

 

[MULUBJA]

Take away Indian H1B visa, India GDP will only grow at 4 percent

Your great sense of Indian economy and expertise of economics have astonished me. From where did you get this great knowledge of economy? May I know? I do not think that this great knowledge of economy can be achieved anywhere except CPC reeducation camps.

 

[That Guy]

And to have a lower poverty level than india which we have.

Not low enough. It's still in a relatively similar ball park as India. Until Pakistan's poverty rate goes below 5% of the population, it'll continue to be a dismal number.

 

[Nilgiri]

I made my comment with a higher expectation for India, and obviously with China as a gauge back in my mind.

India is much more heterogeneous than China. It is collection of many nations. Like say if EU existed as political entity in modern times before industrial revolution....have to go back to roman empire to get closest to that. So development as modern nation state is harder to set into motion sometimes, but it carries a long term inertia when it does.

We all know India has a great potential, but it would remain just a potential without much more profound social reforms, for which I am pessimistic.

Social reforms? The only social reform that matters is the setting up of an independent court system and structure for citizen based govt. Everything else expands from that, with the highways of education and rivers of wealth creation. It took the US nearly 200 years to rid itself of the vestige of slavery after being founded as a political entity. India is attempting a lot more a lot quicker....and proceeding at a much faster rate I would say. Of course it cannot be 1:1 comparison since they situations are different, but heterogeneous states have to proceed cautiously for overall social order. Fully govt dispensed social control is a slippery slope when there are multiple populations with multiple histories involved....it can only be used sparingly and as last resort for (the very real) fear of total tearing of the country all together. In fact that was experienced on the ground during the birth of the modern republic (partition) as you already know.

Under Modi administration, India is increasingly becoming a religious country, and IMO it is moving backwards in time.

A more religious country? I am not aware thats the case. Govt may be enforcing more authoritarian dictats based on majority sentiment to promote social cohesion for the long term.....thats hardly becoming "more religious". The earliest major thinker of the RSS movement was a staunch atheist. Religion itself has little to do with concept of populist social order....its basically one part of cultural fabric that you inherit and manage. Mao after all used the concept of communism+atheism, in quite a more extreme fashion in China (say during the cultural revolution) for that goal.

One can easily argue it was more of a religion to enforce quite a corrupted form of secularism, socialism and universal suffrage on a stark collection of undereducated and underdeveloped people.

With secularism especially, if the intent was to ignore the real sources of friction by not picking "a side" for everyone to integrate into the best they can.....but rather to pretend they dont exist and kick that can down the road as many times as possible while hoping it solves itself somehow.....well thats a foolish thing to do.

Just like you have to build up capitalist created wealth (a smart fellow once said it doesnt matter what colour a cat is, as long as it catches mice)....to be able to attempt to share it better socially later......you also need to maximise some minimum amount of social cohesion and integration before you can afford to dabble in secular experiments. Attempting to rid and purge the existing culture to the extreme (like what Mao went for) is not my cup of tea to achieve that....but neither is giving idealism the full benefit of the doubt in an heterogeneous country....nor yet another extreme where the govt enforces the differences all together like in Apartheid South Africa. This balance is what India experiments with and will let coalesce long term from the results of each perturbation. Its really no one elses business to be honest.

In 21st century in this great country, eating certain meat has become a crime?

Thats good propaganda you present it that way. The consumption of any meat is not banned in the constitution or any local statute. What we have is ban on certain slaughter of certain animals based on majority sentiment (that social order/cohesion thing I talked about). Plenty of other countries have similar. Try set up a dog or cat abattoir in the west to see what I mean (even if certain minorities within them are completely fine with eating them). I wont even go into what China consumes in larger amount than the rest of the world put together (they go oink) in certain other countries too....though in their case its not affinity with the animal, but rather the other extreme.

All in the end is human based, majority based emotional reason for not sourcing protein by extinguishing a certain form of lifeform. Where the balance exists for each society is left for it to decide long term. Offering outsider commentary on which one is superior or inferior is really not a productive conversation at all...you have to be from the country itself to know the many nuanced sides of this conversation. When Japan transitioned into the modern era from the Meiji era, it took them well more than 50 years to overcome their previous (emperor-enforced) beef taboo and they are still largely a seafood consuming country overall (And would have probably been a near zero beef country had the Meiji emperor not bitten the bullet to "force modernisation").....plus they are far more homogeneous than India ever can be.

I don't think this is what your founding fathers had in mind when they declared India's independence exactly 70 years ago.

Point is what they had in mind is irrelevant then as it is now. Their only real relevance is that they helped achieve that independence. Their commentary and vision for what India was, is and should be are drops in a very large ocean....because India's history, culture and ethos is exactly that....an ocean. I do not subscribe to holding anyone's view as automatically more worthy than anyone else's in a long established civilisation. They have to prove it or base it on excellent logic to differentiate themselves as allied to truth (and thus genuine progress). I am an Aristotelian rather than a Platonist, always have been, always will be.

 

[Vishvamitra]

Abusing?
Cool, why would your rich clients going bankrupt impact your business? Unless the deals were illegal?

please explain?

I am trying to come up with a logic how a business would go bankrupt by depositing it's existing cash and getting new cash. The logic eludes me, so, please explain.

They lost all of their money, we did not recovery any cash for our supplied goods.

 

[Nilgiri]

Well, Modi did not wait a full year to declare "the fastest growing major economy in the world" status.

What are you talking about? The rate of growth has been highest as accepted by the IMF and World Bank. When did Modi make this statement the first time anyway? I honestly have not been paying much attention to the timing of his statements.

 

[bhimram]

They lost all of their money, we did not recovery any cash for our supplied goods.

So, you were dealing with illegal businesses.
Enough said.

 

[Vishvamitra]

So, you were dealingparties illegal businesses.
Enough said.

Dumb retard....We sold the goods to cliantsc but did not recive any payment from 2 parties because both went bankrupt.

NRI dalit like you are still low IQ creatures...

 

[bhimram]

Dumb retard....We sold the goods to cliantsc but did not recive any payment from 2 parties because both went bankrupt.

NRI dalit like you are still low IQ creatures...

The insults keep coming.

If they were unable to pay you, that means they were using black money.
If they were to make payments to you using the black money, then, your business was receiving the black money in cash, for which you were not providing bills. This is important because any invoice you raise, means the govt would know your partners were using black money.

It was a very convenient arrangement between two corrupt parties. When one party get's screwed by another because the law caught up to it, you expect us to sympathize with you?
Guess what?

 

[Vishvamitra]

Dumb idiot.

 

[tw00tw00]

http://www.dailyo.in/business/gdp-g...monetisation-make-in-india/story/1/17629.html

Modi can improve India's GDP if he shifts focus from beef and Hindutva to reforms
Government data for the fourth quarter proves that it was premature to shrug off the impact of demonetisation.
When the GDP growth numbers for the third quarter of 2016-17 came in March this year, there was a huge surprise in store. While many had expected demonetisation to impact growth and drag it down by a minimum one per cent if not more, data showed growth had defied critics and stood at seven per cent.

There were at least a few who said then, the data may not have reflected the full impact of demonetisation, especially the pain in the informal sector, which comprises over 80 per cent of all employment.

Now, the government data for the fourth quarter (Q4), ended March, proves that it was premature to shrug off the impact of demonetisation, when it pegged the GSP growth to be at 6.1 per cent, compared to eight per cent a year ago, and lower than the consensus of economists that it would be in the range of 7.1 per cent.

The GVA (Gross Value Added or the measure of the value of goods and services produced in an area, industry or sector of the economy) in the fourth quarter came in at a lower-than-estimated 5.6 per cent, while the consensus was that it would be somewhere around 6.8 per cent.

The finance minister has been quick to play down the impact of demonetisation on the GDP numbers, saying a host of other factors, including slowing global growth, was responsible.

An analysis by HSBC Global Research shows GVA was hit by a contracting construction sector along with weaker growth in manufacturing, financial services and trade.

The finance minister has been quick to play down the impact of demonetisation on the GDP numbers.

Construction growth contracted for the first time in three years. The GDP slowdown, meanwhile, was a reflection of the negative investment growth and slowing private consumption. Overall, the GDP for the full year 2016-17 stood at 7.1 per cent compared to eight per cent a year ago.

According to CARE Ratings, the annual GDP growth in 2016-17 was dragged down primarily by mining, quarrying and construction, along with services. The economy was expected to outperform in the fiscal year, with favourable monsoon and wage increase post-implementation of the 7th Pay Commission, which was expected to spur consumption in the second half of the fiscal.

However, demonetisation had temporarily slowed down economic activities in the third quarter due to cash crunch, it said. The manufacturing sector, which has been in the limelight for some time now after the government’s high decibel "Make in India" campaign, had witnessed a drop in the growth, while the services like trade and transport were adversely affected.

Banking sector, however, benefitted from demonetisation with higher bank deposits and liquidity in the banking system. Another positive factor is that agriculture has been strong, led by good rains after a two year drought.

What’s in store for 2017-18?

HSBC expects GDP growth to be flat at 7.1 per cent this financial year too.

This seems increasing the possibility, given the fact that the private investment cycle does not show any sign of kickstarting any soon, and the slowdown in manufacturing, other than in passenger vehicles and FMCG, is expected to continue.

Even the NITI Aayog has said that for India’s GDP to grow at over eight per cent, manufacturing has to grow at 12-14 per cent, from as low as 7.9 per cent in 2016-17. The implementation of GST will also cause uncertainties in the initial months, and could become a drag on the economy.

Only a prudent mix of government spending (which, thankfully, is already on a higher trajectory) and a boost in business confidence to invest more, can take the GDP to levels beyond eight per cent as targeted by the government.

For that to happen, the government should discourage its current discourses around beef and Hindutva and focus on taking some of its proposed reforms such as cleaning up the banking sector to completion.

(Courtesy of Mail Today.)

Also read: Modi’s economics has hurt India's growth. Raghuram Rajan must be having the last laugh

 

[ashok321]

Indian banks reeling under potential defaults:

 

[bhimram]

Indian banks reeling under potential defaults:

View attachment 401817

And yet when rNDtv defaults on it's loans, while diverting the loan amount to personal accounts of Pranob Roy & his wife, you come here and cry.

Care to explain the logic?

 

[ashok321]

Aha!

• Adani urges Gujarat govt to bail out Mundra power plant

• Pay cut or layoff? A look at what India Inc thinks

 

[bhimram]

Aha!

What has those 2 articles you have provided got to do with Pranob Roy taking a huge loan on rNDtv name, diverting the funds to his personal accounts, spending it & declaring bankruptcy?

Care to explain or will you keep posting articles that make you look insane?