India left "disappointed" as US goes ahead with F-16 sale to Pakistan.

[Piper]

That'd be disastrous not only for the Indian IT industry which gets 50 to 60% of its revenue from the US but also and probably much more disastrous on the US financial services, banking services, IT services industries. All sectors of the US will be affected significantly, not just these. Anyone who thinks ony call centers will be affected has turned off his/her brain 10 years ago. Call centers have moved and movable easily to Phillipines but not real IT. US and India are now inter-dependent.

It won't happen with a jerk. We will start transitioning by building capacity in say BD, Nepal, Srilanka, Pakistan, Vietnam, Philippines. First you would see some minor accounts shifting but later after a year or two the big accounts will start shifting.

US companies may incur some extra cost but the cost to Indian economy would be ruinous.

Now I am not being a jerk and saying we will do it out of pure spite! My comment was in response to another Poster threatening India with consequences.

In reality India - US have a thriving partnership which going to grow further as our strategic goals align.

 

[Humble Analyst]

Hue and cry ??
Our MEA summons US Ambassador and expressed our dissatisfaction .
We dont give a flying F about your concerns.We will always remember our experience .So next time if US company parked their companies for deals in India ,if situation demands we will kick out them in the name of some other reason .
8 F16 not gonna change anything .But we will show the US what do you mean by business?

Spoken like a true Indian.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Hey every Tom, Dick and Harry can threaten US. It's an altogether another matter if they can deliver.

I say let's take away all the H1B visas and see how India responds with their IT industry going down the crapper.

I think the H1B visa program needs to be regulated a lot better in general. When I was in college, the apartment complex I lived in for a couple of years was essentially turned into a colony of Indian H1B workers hired by TCS (Tata Consultancy Services). Most of them were pretty decent, hard working chaps and most had several years of experience. What really irked me though was the fact that they were paid on the low end of entry level US engineering/IT wages (despite their experience) and TCS leveraged their H1B status into 70/80 hour work weeks at base pay.

There have been other high profile instances in the media of Indian and American firms (Disney from the latter in one case) abusing the H1B visa system to lay off American citizens and permanent residents from high skilled jobs so that companies like TCS can essentially bring in 'slave labor' under the H1B visa program.

 

[Piper]

I think the H1B visa program needs to be regulated a lot better in general. When I was in college, the apartment complex I lived in for a couple of years was essentially turned into a colony of Indian H1B workers hired by TCS (Tata Consultancy Services). Most of them were pretty decent, hard working chaps and most had several years of experience. What really irked me though was the fact that they were paid on the low end of entry level US engineering/IT wages (despite their experience) and TCS leveraged their H1B status into 70/80 hour work weeks at base pay.

There have been other high profile instances in the media of Indian and American firms (Disney from the latter in one case) abusing the H1B visa system to lay off American citizens and permanent residents from high skilled jobs so that companies like TCS can essentially bring in 'slave labor' under the H1B visa program.

I am vehemently against US companies laying off Americans for cheap labor found over-seas be in India or elsewhere but the crux of the matter is for American companies to remain competitive they need to lower costs and hiring Indians is extremely cost-effective. If one company starts hiring Indians then others have to follow suit. It's like a Domino.

One option is to pass a regulation which prevents American corporates from hiring Indians at the lower spectrum of skill. High Skill jobs of which we have a shortage of like Doctors, PHDs, Professors, Management etc are fine by my book. The problem is that every corporate which opposes such a measure and since collectively they wield a lot of influence in Senate and Congress such a measure will never pass unless an executive order is given.

 

[Tiger Genie]

No one is irreplaceable - other nations and companies will step in, and there will be a minor blip for a year or so as the transition occurs.

such as?

software depth is not something you develop in one year or two years. Insiders know how deep this dependency is. The issue is not pure software technology. The real dependency is the extent of specific application and business process knowledge that has been outsourced in such massive numbers to the Indian 'majors' as they are called, that locals in the US simply do not hope to ever bring back.

Secondly to 'bring' that knowledge back there are only two strategies: 1) hire a lot of locals and have them trained over time. You can imaging what this would cost if a company is to replace software talent from India even at a 3:1 ratio. 2) Complete create new software systems using local talent - this actually may be the better long term option BUT it is a non-starter for one reason: good software engineers want to work in Silicon Valley for innovative product startups, NOT developing banking systems!

The only concern Indian IT business had was if China would somehow manage to teach English to its software millions. Over the past 15 years, China has tried real hard and failed. Meanwhile Indian companies have diversified into Europe where I understand now 30 to 40% revenues come from; plus some of these companies are buying up American companies with their cash.

Finally the concept of 'Indian IT' has changed. Would you consider IBM, Accenture, CSC et al to be part of American or Indian IT sector? Yet these companies all have more than half their staff in India. I mean in tens of thousands.

It won't happen with a jerk. We will start transitioning by building capacity in say BD, Nepal, Srilanka, Pakistan, Vietnam, Philippines. First you would see some minor accounts shifting but later after a year or two the big accounts will start shifting.

US companies may incur some extra cost but the cost to Indian economy would be ruinous.

Now I am not being a jerk and saying we will do it out of pure spite! My comment was in response to another Poster threatening India with consequences.

In reality India - US have a thriving partnership which going to grow further as our strategic goals align.

All these countries put together cannot come up with the scale of one Indian major in software. Secondly, Pakistan is not trusted; BD & Nepal do not have IBM AT'16s yet; Srilanka sends its best and brightest to South India colleges; Philippines has been and tried and failed in software, but have indeed developed excellent call centers (which India is happy to give up due to low value). That leaves Vietnam - completely unknown as yet (at least to me...and I happen to be aware of almost ALL major IT deals made in the US).

If India gets its act straight, they have a very real chance of true partnership with the US. The Americans, the Indians and the world deserve that. But it requires India to clean up its act and growing up fast.

I am vehemently against US companies laying off Americans for cheap labor found over-seas be in India or elsewhere but the crux of the matter is for American companies to remain competitive they need to lower costs and hiring Indians is extremely cost-effective. If one company starts hiring Indians then others have to follow suit. It's like a Domino.

One option is to pass a regulation which prevents American corporates from hiring Indians at the lower spectrum of skill. High Skill jobs of which we have a shortage of like Doctors, PHDs, Professors, Management etc are fine by my book. The problem is that every corporate which oppose such measure and since collectively they wield a lot of influence in Senate and Congress such a measure will never pass unless an executive order is given.

It is very difficult to find anyone that will say otherwise. Workers are workers and we all have to slog to make a living. So anytime anyone loses their job, it is impossible to justify that for any reason.

That said it always surprises me to see how many otherwise reasonable and truth-seeking (fellow) Americans fail to look at data before making such statements. If you have a cut in you toe will you put a bandaid there or treat your hair follicle?
America lost its manufacturing base - jobs, capital and intellectual property in massive numbers to China. That is where the malaise is. A good software engineer (not documentation specialiast, not QA tester, not requirements associate...) is HARD to find in the USA. They are all either working for startups for options or located in Israel, India and Russia. There are many many in China too but they have been corralled for cyber warfare by that country.

The place to start is to bring back manufacturing into the USA. Or atleast start diversifying out of China.

If you don't believe that just look at the state of demand and supply for goods from automobile, steel, paper goods, rubber industries in the US. If you see the ratio of demand vs source of supply for these goods (I am talking goods, not raw material) you will realize how many tens of millions of jobs have been lost. And you are worried about 65000 H1b visas! Do you realize H1B visa holders work IN The US and the government at least get taxes from them besides fees. Whereas in the industries I mentioned, the job loss is 100+ times that plus complete loss tax revenue PLUS flight of capital! Come on!

 

[Piper]

All these countries put together cannot come up with the scale of one Indian major in software. Secondly, Pakistan is not trusted; BD & Nepal do not have IBM AT'16s yet; Srilanka sends its best and brightest to South India colleges; Philippines has been and tried and failed in software, but have indeed developed excellent call centers (which India is happy to give up due to low value). That leaves Vietnam - completely unknown as yet (at least to me...and I happen to be aware of almost ALL major IT deals made in the US).

If India gets its act straight, they have a very real chance of true partnership with the US. The Americans, the Indians and the world deserve that. But it requires India to clean up its act and growing up fast.

I agree, India at present is a major software vendor which would be difficult to replace - Difficult but not impossible! IT sector in India is mostly about abundant low skill HR and there are others who are placed excellently to fill the gap.

The only thing required to keep the ball rolling is that India does not stir up the pot! As long there is mutual respect b/w India and US - our partnership would be defining partnership of 21st century as Obama said.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

I am vehemently against US companies laying off Americans for cheap labor found over-seas be in India or elsewhere but the crux of the matter is for American companies to remain competitive they need to lower costs and hiring Indians is extremely cost-effective. If one company starts hiring Indians then others have to follow suit. It's like a Domino.

One option is to pass a regulation which prevents American corporates from hiring Indians at the lower spectrum of skill. High Skill jobs of which we have a shortage of like Doctors, PHDs, Professors, Management etc are fine by my book. The problem is that every corporate which oppose such measure and since collectively they wield a lot of influence in Senate and Congress such a measure will never pass unless an executive order is given.

Well the issue with Engineering/IT services and the H1B program is a bit more complex. So what happens is that a company like Disney will outsource their IT work to TCS in the US. An American company is only supposed to utilize the H1B visa if they cannot find qualified American citizens/residents to fill those positions. In Disney's case, they laid off all the American citizens/residents and TCS brought in H1B Indian workers to the US to work at much lower wages. It wasn't 'of-shore outsourcing' - the work did not go to Indian workers resident in India. This is an 'end run' around laws and regulations being put in place that do not allow companies to take advantage of tax breaks if they 'outsource to other countries'.

Now I'm not entirely familiar with the legal recourse available to H1B workers, but given the example of the TCS workers I met while in college, what recourse do they have in the US to address unfair wages and extremely high hours per week without OT? Since the Indian company controls their H1B status, there is a lot of leverage (direct and indirect) they can exercise to keep the workers from complaining while in the US.

 

[Levina]

So you mean to say US are idiots and only Indians are intelligent in this whole world?. Stop trolling

That was my reply to a troll.
Like a said, a reaction was expected from us and we did react.
Even minutest of changes in our neighbourhood effects us and ergo the reaction.

 

[Piper]

Well the issue with Engineering/IT services and the H1B program is a bit more complex. So what happens is that a company like Disney will outsource their IT work to TCS in the US. An American company is only supposed to utilize the H1B visa if they cannot find qualified American citizens/residents to fill those positions. In Disney's case, they laid off all the American citizens/residents and TCS brought in H1B Indian workers to the US to work at much lower wages. It wasn't 'of-shore outsourcing' - the work did not go to Indian workers resident in India. This is an 'end run' around laws and regulations being put in place that do not allow companies to take advantage of tax breaks if they 'outsource to other countries'.

Now I'm not entirely familiar with the legal recourse available to H1B workers, but given the example of the TCS workers I met while in college, what recourse do they have in the US to address unfair wages and extremely high hours per week without OT? Since the Indian company controls their H1B status, there is a lot of leverage (direct and indirect) they can exercise to keep the workers from complaining while in the US.

If what you are saying in the first para is true then it is a criminally fraudulent practice and laid off Americans were right to sue Disney.

As for Indian workers and low wages - that is their appeal! and as far as I am aware they are mostly contractors not full time employees thus as long as they are paid anything above avg minimum wage @7.5 USD per hour it is legal.

 

[Tiger Genie]

I agree, India at present is a major software vendor which would be difficult to replace - Difficult but not impossible! IT sector in India is mostly about abundant low skill HR and there are others who are placed excellently to fill the gap.

The only thing required to keep the ball rolling is that India does not stir up the pot! As long there is mutual respect b/w India and US - our partnership would be defining partnership of 21st century as Obama said.

What I am trying to convince you about is not to make the mistake of considering it only 'low skill' HR. Indians have very smartly and with foresight leveraged the initial 'low skill' cheap labor to now much higher skill complex engineering and data analytics. Today there are more Indians teaching big data, marketing analytics and data science than any other. They wen from Cobol to C++ to Java to Oracle to Hadoop to Analytics.

But I agree with your statement about mutual respect. India must also cure their corruption problem at a war footing if they are to be fully trusted for the next level of partnership.

And besides all that, there is also the question of whether free market capitalism is subject to artificial limits. For example if capital can flow freely, if raw materials can flow freely, if management and knowledge can flow freely, why shouldn't labor flow freely as well?

If I can borrow capital from wherever the cheapest cost of capital is, if I can buy raw materials from wherever the cheapest source is, why should I not hire workers from wherever the cheapest source is? As long as I am complying with the laws, what is the objection? what is the difference?

If laws of demand and supply are to work, we cannot artificially thwart the laws of comparative advantages and specialization.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

If what you are saying in the first para is true then it is a criminally fraudulent practice and laid off Americans were right to sue Disney.

This issue needs to be publicized a lot more so other workers impacted negatively in similar situations can pressure the legislature to put controls in place to prevent abuse.

As for Indian workers and low wages - that is their appeal! and as far as I am aware they are mostly contractors not full time employees thus as long as they are paid anything above avg minimum wage @7.5 USD per hour it is legal.

And that is the problem - what controls are in place to ensure that companies like TCS that are operating in the US consider US citizens and residents for these jobs before bringing in H1B workers at extremely low wages and harsh work conditions (in the US)?

Extrapolate away from IT/Engineering services for a second - almost every sector of the US economy could be 'internally outsourced' to Indian/Mexican/Chinese subsidiaries operating in the US who would then bring in 'H1B contract workers' from their respective countries to work at Walmart wage levels. The concept that allowed Disney and TCS (and other American companies) to do what they did is a recipe for disaster in the long run.

There's a simple solution - if a company like Disney has an IT department with a workforce that is 80% American Citizen/Resident prior to outsourcing, then the incoming Indian subsidiary in the US (that Disney outsourced its IT work to) should be required to ensure that 80% of its workforce resident in the US is also comprised of US Citizens/Residents.

And besides all that, there is also the question of whether free market capitalism is subject to artificial limits. For example if capital can flow freely, if raw materials can flow freely, if management and knowledge can flow freely, why shouldn't labor flow freely as well?

Pure free market capitalism is best applicable in an environment where the underlying factors are relatively the same. The cost of living in the US is much higher - a college education costs a lot more, housing costs more, so how exactly in this 'pure free market capitalism' is American labor supposed to compete with labor from developing and under-developed and over populated countries?

 

[Piper]

This issue needs to be publicized a lot more so other workers impacted negatively in similar situations can pressure the legislature to put controls in place to prevent abuse.

And that is the problem - what controls are in place to ensure that companies like TCS that are operating in the US consider US citizens and residents for these jobs before bringing in H1B workers at extremely low wages and harsh work conditions (in the US)?

Extrapolate away from IT/Engineering services for a second - almost every sector of the US economy could be 'internally outsourced' to Indian/Mexican/Chinese subsidiaries operating in the US who would then bring in 'H1B contract workers' from their respective countries to work at Walmart wage levels. The concept that allowed Disney and TCS (and other American companies) to do what they did is a recipe for disaster in the long run.

There's a simple solution - if a company like Disney has an IT department with a workforce that is 80% American Citizen/Resident prior to outsourcing, then the incoming Indian subsidiary in the US (that Disney outsourced its IT work to) should be required to ensure that 80% of its workforce resident in the US is also comprised of US Citizens/Residents.

This is issue is a political hot potato stateside. The problem is that it serves corporate interest and in US corporate lobbying is responsible for most of the laws and their enforcement. All the election bluster now will disappear once the Presidents settles down in Oval Office and has to fight a hostile congress and senate paid for by corporates for each and every legislation. Why else do you think not a single Wall Street Executive barring one poor patsy has been jailed for defrauding American Public during the crash

 

[SrNair]

You've confused India's international standing and status with that of the US in making this absurd quasi-threat ...


So here's the thing - the US approves X dollars of aid and/or CSF reimbursements for Pakistan annually. Any 'US funding for military purchases from the US' will be taken out of the X funds allocated to Pakistan. The only thing that will happen if the US legislature asks Pakistan to 'pay for the military purchases herself' is that the money has to travel to Pakistan first, before being sent back to the US.

Basically the point is that without a significant cut in the budgeted US aid and/or CSF reimbursements to Pakistan, the funds available to Pakistan for the F-16 purchase will remain intact.

US values their exports and money more than anything else .
We have already seen their painful reactions after we kicked them out from MMRCA .
US Ambassador at that time was forced to left his seat in India .
We hope they can react like that in future also

 

[Humble Analyst]

The game is not over. Now the deal goes to the Congress, there was almost no scope of pressuring the Administration of stopping this deal (unless the Indian government had actively sought it) and in the Congress there is greater opposition to this deal:
India left "disappointed" as US goes ahead with F-16 sale to Pakistan. | Page 20

It might go through but it won't be plain sailing.


And the nature of the product (yesterday's F-16s or F-22s) is rather irrelevent. If you aren't looking to oppose every single deal then what is the point in the MEA at all? Is it in India's interests that Pakistan gets any offensive equipment? No. So all will be opposed where India is able to.

Wise people in India will want Pakistan to have a balance in conventional weapons. Wise people will not push Pakistan in the corner. But where are the wise people?

 

[Donatello]

ZEROOOOOHHH.
Don't be disappointed.

There are so many of them, so even if 1 million expired, who would be able to actually notice?