India Economy Survey 2021-22, GDP growth 9.2%, GDP $2.98 trillion, Debt to GDP 89.3%

[Indos]

We will know that for sure only after Q4 2021. Which will come only in April 2022. The estimate put out with the available data is Indian GDP will be 2.98-3.1T by end of 2021 financial year.

As I have estimated in middle of 2021 that Indian economy will not likely reach and surpasse 3 trillion mark in complete 2021 year.

The IMF latest estimate in late 2021 even shows Indian economy hasnt reach 3 trillion mark, despite its projection is 9.2 percent. This real data shows complete 2021 fiscal year will likely make the growth around 8 percent. I wonder why IMF has optimistic projection on India while pessimist projection in Indonesia ? The deviation is quite large

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

This FY it looks like 8.4% GDP growth instead of 9.2%. Next year estimate of 8.2% look optimistic, more like 6% maybe.

Last quarter growth in 2021 which is 5. 4 % is a benchmark for Indian future economic, the growth rate is not far from the trend data during Modi administration excluding abnormality figure in 2020-2021 period.

I predict Indian economy growth in whole 2022 period is about 5.5 %. It has potency to be lower than that if Russia-Ukraine war continue for at least another 5 months.

 

[Arulmozhi Varman]

As I have estimated in middle of 2021 that Indian economy will not likely reach and surpasse 3 trillion mark in complete 2021 year.

The IMF latest estimate in late 2021 even shows Indian economy hasnt reach 3 trillion mark, despite its projection is 9.2 percent. This real data shows complete 2021 fiscal year will likely make the growth around 8 percent. I wonder why IMF has optimistic projection on India while pessimist projection in Indonesia ? The deviation is quite large

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)



Last quarter growth in 2021 which is 5. 4 % is a benchmark for Indian future economic, the growth rate is not far from the trend data during Modi administration excluding abnormality figure in 2020-2021 period.

I predict Indian economy growth in whole 2022 period is about 5.5 %. It has potency to be lower than that if Russia-Ukraine war continue for at least another 5 months.

No. The Q4 is not out yet. It's Q3 is 5.4% due to lockdown and omnicron. As I have already said, IMF have their own calculation and GoI is having their own estimate. By their estimate, it looks.like our GDP will.be at 2.98-3.1T. If this Q4 is higher than expected, then we will meet those numbers. If not it will be 2.94-2.98T or 2.9T.

 

[Indos]

No. The Q4 is not out yet. It's Q3 is 5.4% due to lockdown and omnicron. As I have already said, IMF have their own calculation and GoI is having their own estimate. By their estimate, it looks.like our GDP will.be at 2.98-3.1T. If this Q4 is higher than expected, then we will meet those numbers. If not it will be 2.94-2.98T or 2.9T.

Q4 of Indian is Jan - March 2022

I am talking about whole 2021 year

Q3 of Indian is Oct- Desember 2021. There is no Omicron and Lock down at that time.

 

[Arulmozhi Varman]

Q4 of Indian is Jan - March 2022

I am talking about whole 2021 year

Q3 of Indian is Oct- Desember 2021. There is no Omicron and Lock down at that time.

Nope. I was travelling in November, and I remember omnicron was in November. There was lockdown that time.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

India's Nominal GDP figure seems to be hovering around $3 trillion for a good few years now.

 

[satyamev]

As I have estimated in middle of 2021 that Indian economy will not likely reach and surpasse 3 trillion mark in complete 2021 year.

The IMF latest estimate in late 2021 even shows Indian economy hasnt reach 3 trillion mark, despite its projection is 9.2 percent. This real data shows complete 2021 fiscal year will likely make the growth around 8 percent. I wonder why IMF has optimistic projection on India while pessimist projection in Indonesia ? The deviation is quite large

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)



Last quarter growth in 2021 which is 5. 4 % is a benchmark for Indian future economic, the growth rate is not far from the trend data during Modi administration excluding abnormality figure in 2020-2021 period.

I predict Indian economy growth in whole 2022 period is about 5.5 %. It has potency to be lower than that if Russia-Ukraine war continue for at least another 5 months.

how does 2.98 t or 3.0 t make a difference ?
India's financial year is from April to March. Not jan to dec.
As long as we get real growth of 5.5 to 6 % , India is on the right track.
At the moment, most of our industry is doing pretty well, the reason for the record boom in the stock markets.
Only issue is the internal debt , but it's still ok .
India has a few strengths -
is not export dependent
has a huge internal market

 

[Indos]

how does 2.98 t or 3.0 t make a difference ?
India's financial year is from April to March. Not jan to dec.
As long as we get real growth of 5.5 to 6 % , India is on the right track.
At the moment, most of our industry is doing pretty well, the reason for the record boom in the stock markets.
Only issue is the internal debt , but it's still ok .
India has a few strengths -
is not export dependent
has a huge internal market

The difference is more toward crossing the 3 trillion mark, the same like Indonesia is difficult to touch and passed 1 trillion USD nominal GDP since 2011 despite at that time our GDP is already almost 1 trillion USD, the fall of Rupiah prevents Indonesia economy to achieve it sooner, we pass it and become 1 trillion USD economy only after the year 2017 completed.

5.5 percent growth is likely the growth for India as it was the range happen during Modi rule (4-5.5 percent), this is why I am confused with projection like 7-8 percent in 2022-2023 fiscal year (April-March 2023) stated by your gov, your central bank, Moody, and also IMF.

The high growth rate between January-September is due to low base as India did strick lockdown in 2020, while October-December 2021 shows growth more like previous years under Moodi administration, excluding abnormal figure in 2020-2021 Jan-September.

Unlike India, Indonesia economic projection is based on the growth during our normal period since Jokowi take control in late 2014 at 5-5.5 %. But more growth could still happen IMO due to high commodity prices we are currently facing that also resulted in economic growth around 6-6.5 percent under SBY administration.

High oil and gas price and commodity prices are benefiting Indonesia despite we have become net oil importer since 2011, but around more than half oil demand can still be supplied by oil companies operating in Indonesia while for gas we are net exporter despite not much.

 

[satyamev]

The difference is more toward crossing the 3 trillion mark, the same like Indonesia is difficult to touch and passed 1 trillion USD nominal GDP since 2011 despite at that time our GDP is already almost 1 trillion USD, the fall of Rupiah prevents Indonesia economy to achieve it sooner, we pass it and become 1 trillion USD economy only after the year 2017 completed.

5.5 percent growth is likely the growth for India as it was the range happen during Modi rule (4-5.5 percent), this is why I am confused with projection like 7-8 percent in 2022-2023 fiscal year (April-March 2023) stated by your gov, your central bank, Moody, and also IMF.

The high growth rate between January-September is due to low base as India did strick lockdown last year, while October-December shows growth more like previous years under Moodi administration, excluding abnormal figure in 2020-2021 Jan-September.

Unlike India, Indonesia economic projection is based on the growth during our normal period since Jokowi take control in late 2014 at 5-5.5 %. But more growth could still happen IMO due to high commodity prices we are currently facing that also resulted in economic growth around 6-6.5 percent under SBY administration.

High oil and gas price and commodity prices are benefiting Indonesia despite we have become net oil importer since 2011, but around more than half oil demand can still be supplied by oil companies operating in Indonesia while for gas we are net exporter despite not much.

how is a round figure so important ? whether 1 or 3 trillion ? it's just a feel good factor.
Indian economy was effected by complete closure for nearly a year.
Example, the tourist trade contributes 7 % to our economy, this has become nearly zero.
Still international tourism is disallowed in India.
So expect a few drivers of growth once international flights can operate again.