India can outgrow China: Bill Clinton

[Merilion]

India has already ourgrowing China in GDP growth rate for this year.

Moody?s rank India ahead of China in growth; Asia Pac to have stable outlook

Also, it is expected by most economists that India will start growing faster than China from 2010/2012 on.

the self claimed economist cannot even tell the difference between GDP growth and telecom market growth?

 

[grey boy 2]

India has already ourgrowing China in GDP growth rate for this year.

Moody?s rank India ahead of China in growth; Asia Pac to have stable outlook

Also, it is expected by most economists that India will start growing faster than China from 2010/2012 on.

Yeah, you are right, India out grow China from 2010 !

The IMF forecast China and India will lead Asia's expansion in 2010, growing at rates of 9.0 and 6.4 percent, respectively.

IMF forecasts 2010 India GDP 6.4%

 

[jeypore]

It would help reduce the rush all these other countries are making to get nuclear weapons. It would indirectly play a major role in encouraging a reduction of tensions in the Middle East. And I think India and Pakistan together would outgrow China in the 21st Century.

How wrong Mr. Clinton is, how can Indian subcontient started Iranian nuclear program. Tensions in Middle East is also not directed by any Indian subcontient issues, and ofcourse how wrong is he in economically building between India and Pakistan.

Mr. Clinton has also been an air head in foreign policies and this clearly shows he has not learned much after his presidency. He mentions lots of other crap of perfect utopian Indian subcontient, but no mention of Islamic fundemetalist erridication policy for better future in the Indian subcontinent.

 

[Honor]

I do not see a need to pit against each other!

Why must we get so serious by American(Clinton) comments?

If India can outgrow China, i will congratulate them. China will then need to buck up and challenge India. Vice versa.

No one will lead forever!

We are just part of history. In 100 years later, we will all be gone. Will anyone claim that India will outgrow China? Vice versa if India by then are stronger?

 

[oceanx]

I do not see a need to pit against each other!

Why must we get so serious by American(Clinton) comments?

If India can outgrow China, i will congratulate them. China will then need to buck up and challenge India. Vice versa.

No one will lead forever!

We are just part of history. In 100 years later, we will all be gone. Will anyone claim that India will outgrow China? Vice versa if India by then are stronger?

Exactly - 高处不胜寒(lonely at the top).

If your people are content, then from a purely strategic point of view, the best place to be in the world is #3.

Let #1 and 2 go at each other.

 

[cat]

so what better than china, we are all lackeys of imperialism.

 

[gogbot]

What a damn liar you are !!

Global rating agency, Moody’s said that the innovative cost saving measures including infrastructure arrangements forged by Indian operators as well as the rapid growth of adding almost 10 million subscribers consistently for the last 18 months, has helped the Indian telecom market to outpace China in terms of growth.

Its all about the telecom market, and you trying to confuse others

its GDP. Shame on you !!


China's 2009 GDP growth revised up to 8.2%


English_Xinhua 2009-09-22 10:16:41 Print

BEIJING, Sept. 22 (Xinhua) -- The Asian Development Bank said Tuesday it had revised its forecast on China's year-on-year economic growth to 8.2 percent for 2009.

Can India match this ?

It's an open secret that China has doctored its economic and financial statistics since the time of Mao. But could it all go south now?

BY JORDAN CALINOFF | SEPTEMBER 3, 2009

In February, local Chinese Labor Ministry officials came to "help" with massive layoffs at an electronics factory in Guangdong province, China. The owner of the factory felt nervous having government officials there, but kept his mouth shut. Who was he to complain that the officials were breaking the law by interfering with the firings, he added. They were the law! And they ordered him to offer his workers what seemed like a pretty good deal: Accept the layoff and receive the legal severance package, or "resign" and get an even larger upfront payment.

"I would estimate around 70 percent of workers took the resignation deal. This is happening all over Guangdong," the factory owner said. "I help the Department of Labor, and they'll help me later on down the line."

Such open-secret programs, writ large, help China manipulate its unemployment rate, because workers who "resign" don't count toward that number. The government estimates that roughly 20 million migrant factory workers have lost their jobs since the downturn started. But, with "resignations" included, the number is likely closer to 40 million or 50 million, according to estimates made by Yiping Huang, chief Asia economist for Citigroup. That is the same size as Germany's entire work force. China similarly distorts everything from its GDP to retail sales figures to production activity. This sort of number-padding isn't just unethical, it's also dangerous: The push to develop rosy economic data could actually lead China's economy over the cliff.

Western media outlets often portray Chinese book-cooking as part and parcel of a monolithic central government and omnipotent Beijing bureaucrats. But the problem is manifold, a product of centralized government as well as decentralized officials.

Pressure to distort or fudge statistics likely comes from up high -- and it's intense. "China announces its annual objective of GDP growth rate each year. In Chinese culture, the government has to reach the objective; otherwise, they will 'lose face,'" said Gary Liu, deputy director of the China Europe International Business School's Lujiazui International Financial Research Center. "For instance, the government announced that it wanted to ensure a GDP growth rate of 8 percent in 2009, and it has become the priority for government officials to meet that objective."

But local and provincial governmental officials are the ones who actually fiddle with the numbers. They retain considerable autonomy and power, and have a self-interested reason to manipulate economic statistics. When they reach or exceed the central government's economic goals, they get rewarded with better jobs or more money. "The higher [their] GDP [figures], the higher the chance will be for local officials to get promoted," explained Liu.

Such statistical creativity is nothing new in China. In 1958, Chairman Mao proclaimed that China would surpass Britain in steel production within 15 years. He mobilized villages throughout China to establish backyard steel furnaces, where in a futile attempt to reach outrageous production goals, villagers could melt down pots and pans and even burn their own furniture for furnace fuel. This effort produced worthless pig iron and diverted enough labor away from agriculture to be a main driver in the devastating famine of the Great Leap Forward.

Last October, Vice Premier Li Keqiang said in a speech after inspecting China's Statistics Bureau, "China's foundation for statistics is still very weak, and the quality of statistics is to be further improved" -- a brutally harsh assessment coming from a top state official.

Indeed, China has predicated its very claim of being the healthiest large economy in the world on faulty statistics. The government insists that even though China's all-important export sector has been devastated -- contracting about 25 percent in the past year -- a massive uptick in domestic consumption has kept factories producing and growth churning along. A close examination of retail sales and GDP growth, however, tells a different story. China's domestic retail sales have risen about 15 percent year on year, but that does not really translate into Chinese consumers purchasing 15 percent more televisions and T-shirts. The country tabulates sales when a factory ships units to a retailer, meaning China includes unused or warehoused inventory in its consumption data. There is ample evidence that state-owned enterprises buy goods from one another, simply shifting products back and forth, and that those transactions count as retail sales in national statistics.

China's retail statistics seem implausible for other reasons, too. They would imply an increase in salaries among Chinese people, allowing them to purchase that extra 15 percent. To be sure, the Statistics Bureau reported salaries had increased 12.9 percent in the first half of 2009. But Chinese netizens complained such numbers were hard to believe -- as did the bureau's chief.

A look at GDP growth also raises serious questions. China's economy grew at an annualized 6.1 percent rate in the first quarter, and 7.9 percent in the second. Yet electricity usage, a key indicator in industrial growth and a harder metric to manipulate, declined 2.2 percent in the first six months of the year. How could an economy largely dependent on manufacturing grow while its industrial sector shrank?

It couldn't; the numbers don't add up. China announced a $600 billion stimulus package (equal to about 14 percent of GDP) last fall. At that point, local governments started counting the dedicated stimulus funds in GDP statistics -- before finding projects to use the funds, and therefore far before the trillions of yuan started trickling into the economy. Local governments keen to raise their growth and production numbers said they spent stimulus money while still deciding on what to spend it, one economist explained. Thus, China's provincial GDP tabulations add up to far more than the countrywide estimate.

Alternative macroeconomic metrics, such as the purchasing managers' index (PMI), which measures output, offer a no more accurate reflection. One private brokerage house, CLSA, compiles its own PMI, suggesting a sharp contraction in industrial output between December 2008 and March 2009. Beijing's PMI data, on the other hand, indicated that industrial output was expanding during that period.

Unfortunately, such obfuscation means China's real economic health is difficult to assess. Most indicators that would help an intrepid economist correct the government numbers -- progress on infrastructure projects, end-user purchases, and the number of "resigned" workers -- are not public.

Still, it is possible to infer the severity of the gap between economic reality and China-on-paper by looking closely at monetary policy. China's state-owned banks dramatically increased lending in the first half of 2009 -- by 34.5 percent year on year, to more than $1 trillion. This move seems intended to keep growth artificially high until exports bounce back. Most analysts agree that it is leading to large bubbles in the stock, real estate, and commodity markets. And the Chinese government recently announced plans to raise capital requirements -- an apparent sign it sees the need to reign in the expansion.

For the long term, China is banking on its main export markets -- in the United States, Europe, and Japan -- recovering and starting to consume again. The hope is that in the meantime, rosy economic figures will placate the masses and stop unrest. But, if the rest of the world does not rebound, China risks the bursting of asset bubbles in property and stocks, declining domestic consumption, and rising unemployment.

That's when the Wile E. Coyote moment could happen. Once Chinese citizens no longer believe that the economy is doing well, social unrest and more widespread worker riots -- already increasing in scope and severity -- are likely. That's something that China will have a harder time hiding. And then we'll know whether China's statistical manipulation was a smart move or a disastrous mistake.

How China Cooks Its Books | Foreign Policy

China News: How China Cooks Its Books | China Digital Times (CDT)

Lets be honest,
When you start muddling with figures on paper.

There isn't any bloody point doing a point to point paper comparison

In laymen's terms, China has gone and entered some cheat-codes to make it look better on the outside.

On the other hand Mother nature drew India a rough hand, with the less than expected monsoons.

Come on the recession has hit almost every country in the world, and there are people out there who have lost jobs and cant find new ones.

People have lost houses, business and some have lost everything.

The GoI

And CCP are hard at work trying to make sure these people can get back on their feet.

and you aren't helping by turning everything into a bloody dick measuring contest.
If you feel bored go bag DRDO or LCA or something, for crying out loud

 

[grey boy 2]

China News: How China Cooks Its Books | China Digital Times (CDT)

Lets be honest,
When you start muddling with figures on paper.

There isn't any bloody point doing a point to point paper comparison

In laymen's terms, China has gone and entered some cheat-codes to make it look better on the outside.

On the other hand Mother nature drew India a rough hand, with the less than expected monsoons.

Come on the recession has hit almost every country in the world, and there are people out there who have lost jobs and cant find new ones.

People have lost houses, business and some have lost everything.

The GoI

And CCP are hard at work trying to make sure these people can get back on their feet.

and you aren't helping by turning everything into a bloody dick measuring contest.
If you feel bored go bag DRDO or LCA or something, for crying out loud

Please keep your bull sh@t to yourself,

You are just trying to twist facts to satisfy your Indian ego !

Yeah, the whole world is wrong except your so call article source with

nothing to back up !

Anyway, my response was due to your fellow country man try to

fool others that India's GDP surpass China's by using a damn telecom

link.

What a whole bunch of lying loosers !!

Do feel free to continue your mental mast........tion with GDP !!

 

[rajeev]

Please keep your bull sh@t to yourself,

You are just trying to twist facts to satisfy your Indian ego !

Yeah, the whole world is wrong except your so call article source with

nothing to back up !

Anyway, my response was due to your fellow country man try to

fool others that India's GDP surpass China's by using a damn telecom

link.

What a whole bunch of lying loosers !!

Do feel free to continue your mental mast........tion with GDP !!

The following are the projected growth rates from Goldman in 2003. The newer projection models are not available for public which has faster growth rates projecting somewhere between 2010-2012 India will grow faster than China.

Projected Growth rates
Years China India
-----------------------------
2000-2005 8.0 5.3
2005-2010 7.2 6.1
2010-2015 5.9 5.9
2015-2020 5.0 5.7
2020-2025 4.6 5.7
2025-2030 4.1 5.9
2030-2035 3.9 6.1
2035-2040 3.9 6.0
2040-2045 3.5 5.6
2045-2050 2.9 5.2

Source: GS BRICs Model Projections.

Now regarding GDP size, I dont think any one disputes that China's GDP will larger than India for the foreseeable future. China is set to become world's largest economy and that is why is so many other countries are fighting against the gravity. US is the most afraid of losing its influence vis-a-vis to China.

Personally, I am happy that all of us have started talking about economic growth rather than arms race or cold-war.

 

[graphican]

and the reason for your grate and valuable addition to this thread is ??? ?

what are trying to achieve here other than proving your un-eligibility to have a good discourse on a thread ?

-------------------------

i think india must keep china is mind while dreamign fo development, because only by lookign up you can grow not by looking down.

and india is developing at majour pace. just read any newspaper . not at china's pace but they are coming.

Sounds like it hurt you somewhere that you had to be personal to reply my post.

What makes me post in this thread is exactly what is making you reply to me. You dont want to look at the bad section of your country and we are able to see India as a whole. Don't overlook the fact that I have added Cricket and Indian Film Making industry in the areas where India could do better. In Economy, Growth and Development, even America or any other country in the world is not able to meet their growth rates, let alone surpass. But If you think India is better than USA and can outgrow China then may be its good for a happy life. I wish you good luck with that

 

[Honor]

Any insitution/famous ppl can cooked up a forecast GDP growth figure! Lets not get too excited about it Be it Indian or China will have a better result

Let us focus on current issue now. It is a joke to argue over it!

For China, our target is to overtake Japan (most likely this yeat or next year) and US GDP as the ultimate prize

For India, you have to work even harder.

With this competition, there will be tremendous growth in Asia.

 

[rajeev]

the self claimed economist cannot even tell the difference between GDP growth and telecom market growth?

Wake up call!
At 8%, India to grow fastest in '10: World Bank- Indicators-Economy-News-The Economic Times

I agree with Honor that this dick measuring contest make no real sense and positive growth this part amid of severe recession is really astounding.

 

[oct605032048]

Any insitution/famous ppl can cooked up a forecast GDP growth figure! Lets not get too excited about it Be it Indian or China will have a better result

Let us focus on current issue now. It is a joke to argue over it!

For China, our target is to overtake Japan (most likely this yeat or next year) and US GDP as the ultimate prize

For India, you have to work even harder.

With this competition, there will be tremendous growth in Asia.

indians want outgrow china and it's ok, why wasting time on this issue and argued childishly?

 

[Speeder]

Wake up call!
At 8%, India to grow fastest in '10: World Bank- Indicators-Economy-News-The Economic Times

I agree with Honor that this dick measuring contest make no real sense and positive growth this part amid of severe recession is really astounding.

What's the use of growth rate? It means nothing but a percentage!

In 2008, Buhdan grew at 21.4% ; Angola grew at 13.2%; Ethiopia grew at 11.6 %!

SO ? who cares?

The absolute volumn of growth is the only thing that makes real sense.



China's GDP minimum is more than 3.5 times that of India.

Assuming China will grow 7.7%, and India will grow 8% in 2010 (highly unlikely),

then in absolute term, India needs to grow at > 27% ( =7.7%*3.5), in order to

just break even with China's growth in absolute volumn.

In other words: if China and India roughly grow at the same rate,

China in fact is growing 3.5 times that of India in real volumn.

--------- the gap is indeed widening at rate of 350% !


Try to grow at 27% growth at one year?

Then Let us know to show that India finally breaks even with China in that year.



And don't forget to grow 27% the year after too, ans year after that...

Good luck with it !

 

[mrwarrior006]

:india: :india: :india: