India can outgrow China: Bill Clinton

[mrwarrior006]

@speeder[What's the use of growth rate? It means nothing but a percentage!

In 2008, Buhdan grew at 21.4% ; Angola grew at 13.2%; Ethiopia grew at 11.6 %!

SO ? who cares?

The absolute volumn of growth is the only thing that makes real sense.



China's GDP minimum is more than 3.5 times that of India.

Assuming (highly unlikely) China will grow 7.7%, and India will grow 10% in 2010,

then in absolute term, India needs to grow at > 27% ( =7.7%*3.5), in order to

just break even with China's growth in absolute volumn.

In other words: if China and India roughly grow at the same rate,

China in fact is growing 3.5 times that of India in real volumn.

--------- the gap is indeed widening at rate of 350% !


Try to grow at 27% growth at one year?

Then Let us know to show that India finally breaks even with China in that year.



And don't forget to grow 27% the year after too, ans year after that...

Good luck with it !]


so wat china is also three times bigger in size to india so for indian geographicall size compared to china tat growth is good and its gonna grow with the time

 

[rajeev]

What's the use of growth rate? It means nothing but a percentage!

In 2008, Buhdan grew at 21.4% ; Angola grew at 13.2%; Ethiopia grew at 11.6 %!

SO ? who cares?

The absolute volumn of growth is the only thing that makes real sense.



China's GDP minimum is more than 3.5 times that of India.

Assuming China will grow 7.7%, and India will grow 8% in 2010 (highly unlikely),

then in absolute term, India needs to grow at > 27% ( =7.7%*3.5), in order to

just break even with China's growth in absolute volumn.

In other words: if China and India roughly grow at the same rate,

China in fact is growing 3.5 times that of India in real volumn.

--------- the gap is indeed widening at rate of 350% !


Try to grow at 27% growth at one year?

Then Let us know to show that India finally breaks even with China in that year.



And don't forget to grow 27% the year after too, ans year after that...

Good luck with it !

I thought you talked about being an economist student.

Teaching exercise for the student:
(a) Do the math and compare to US how much growth will be required to have same GDP as US in next 10 years?
(b) Do the math to match your nearest neighbours - Japan, Taiwan and S. Korea on GDP/capita and how much growth will be needed to match that?

Once you complete that exercise, you move to next grade!

 

[ant80]

I thought you talked about being an economist student.

Why? I'll say he's doing pretty good for a 5th grader.

Growth in absolute terms means absolutely nothing.

A more relevant statistic is ratio of Chinese GDP to Indian GDP. That ratio is increasing because Chinese GDP is growing at a faster pace than Indian GDP. Ratio of Indian to American is also increasing because Indian growth rate is higher. Ratio of American to Chinese GDP is DECREASING because Chinese are growing faster.

In reality, Chinese GDP is larger than what is claimed because of undervalued Chinese Dollar. If China lets their currency appreciate by 50%, that is a 50% growth in GDP right there. India's got ways to go.

 

[rajeev]

Why? I'll say he's doing pretty good for a 5th grader.

Growth in absolute terms means absolutely nothing.

A more relevant statistic is ratio of Chinese GDP to Indian GDP. That ratio is increasing because Chinese GDP is growing at a faster pace than Indian GDP. Ratio of Indian to American is also increasing because Indian growth rate is higher. Ratio of American to Chinese GDP is DECREASING because Chinese are growing faster.

In reality, Chinese GDP is larger than what is claimed because of undervalued Chinese Dollar. If China lets their currency appreciate by 50%, that is a 50% growth in GDP right there. India's got ways to go.

yes, I concede your first paragraph. If you read my comments for some time, I am in not disagreement of the fact.

Now, regarding your statement that undervalued Chinese dollar is the reason. That is not really true. Chinese currency which pegged to US dollar some year back is now pegged to a basket of currencies including Euro and Yen. And during the current recession, it had been deflating i.e. the value was increasing.

Chinese currency is not even partly-convertable like Indian currency. But it is no way undervalued 50%, that is too much extreme. The reason the pegging will not be removed because it would hurt Chinese export model which is based on a being a low-cost provider.

If China will increase the value of a sudden or start moving towards currency conversion trading, then it would appreciate and this could make the business to move to Vietnam and India. It is widely held view that China will keep maintaining the peg for some more time until most countries are out of recession completely namely, US and Europe.

China has a difficultly maintaining its two trillion dollar basket and basket filling up increasing every year. Besides having surplus in trade, Chinese government owns many large firms and profits from these firms are also adding up. Right now, there is a speculation that China is planning to add gold to its reserves instead of buying its money buying US CMBS. They are also adding oil reserves to get the maximum value.

Future holds lot of uncertainity. In my analysis, I dont think that US government even though talks about maintaining strong dollar would be successful in doing so. It is widely expected to have 1.8 trillion budget deficit this year, and 1 trillion budget deficit next year. This would mean a huge hole and increasing mounting debt on the US govt. It also appears the US govt will be passing the healthcare bill which is another big black hole. Medicare is going to run deficit as early as 2017.

I do trust Fed in its not to print more money. But once the recession completely and all unwinding of debt, US may risk increasing the velocity of money, which in turn would make high inflation imminent.

In this sceanrio, the most likely response of the government to increase direct and indirect taxes which would hurt consumers. China's largest partner US is going to have a "flu" and I dont know how can China escape that when in its entire growth model is based on export. China is required to open up its domestic market and its own people inturn become consumers to the products it is making otherwise the current growth is unsustainable.

UK has already started choking up because of the increased debt levels. Iceland, Ireland and Greece appears to have taken down through a windy path. Rest of the Europe is doing ok.

 

[Speeder]

I thought you talked about being an economist student.

Teaching exercise for the student:
(a) Do the math and compare to US how much growth will be required to have same GDP as US in next 10 years?
(b) Do the math to match your nearest neighbours - Japan, Taiwan and S. Korea on GDP/capita and how much growth will be needed to match that?

Once you complete that exercise, you move to next grade!

What r u talking about, "economist" ? Try to shift the topic to China vs US, and GDP/cap now?

Either way, India is at the end of the line. I need to got paid to teach you basic math, apart from economics.

 

[Speeder]

Why? I'll say he's doing pretty good for a 5th grader.

Growth in absolute terms means absolutely nothing.

......

Typical Indian style of illiterate ranting.

Buhtan, followed by Angola, would be the most powerful country in the world

in your eyes, right?

In terms of %, it grows the most in recent years: > 20% annually, relatively

much stronger than China and the US combined.

Do you go to school? Are you X% grader ? ?


Your boss can since now give you a salary cheque of 80%, Happy?

-- 80% of what? Of anything, or everyhitng he likes, since
"absolute terms means absolutely nothing", and you don't care.
Only precentage and relative ones are everything meaningful to you.

So 80% of 20 cents then.


BTW, how about learn how to count your 10% fingers first: 1%, 2%, till 10%?