I agree
but Kashmir is "disputed" as you say ... so you shall have really no justification especially when world opinion will be on Indian side ...
Didn't matter during kargil and won't matter now. It will be perceived as an escalation that might lead to war and therefore the pressure will be on India to not act militarily, and on Pakistan to act immediately against whatever groups may have committed such acts.
in addition ...... (although this thing - the Indian strike, wont happen IMO) ...any Pakistani retaliation will cause Pakistan to be at the receiving end .... of a whole loads of nation who may be scared of you launching nukes at them (Israel for one) ....... a scary prospect at best
That's rather flawed reasoning - anything that destabilizes Pakistan has the potential of compromising the nukes and/or nuclear material, which is what the West fears the most, and not 'Pakistani retaliation'.
Then you have the entire prospect of the WoT in Afghanistan falling apart because the West acted tangibly against Pakistan in response to a Pakistani retaliation (no initiation) to aggression by India.
The West was more scared before Pakistan tested, and to an extent we suffered sanctions (and we knew we would suffer sanctions) but we went ahead anyway.
The West will not do anything except to apply pressure on India to not act, and on Pakistan to act against any alleged perpetrators.
In fact, if the GoP were not to retaliate, it risks becoming 'de-legitemized' in the eyes of Pakistanis, and that creates a vacuum that could be exploited by extremist groups in gaining power and control by painting the GoP as weak, ineffective and in the pocket of 'Amreeka and India'.
It goes without saying that no retaliation to military aggression by India will be political suicide for whichever party is in charge at the time.
but rest assured neither side has the politicians with the cojones to do anything
like that
The benefits are minimal to none, and the potential losses are catastrophic if escalation from either side followed such adventurism by India.
Any sane person would not need 'cojones' to realize the dangers of tempting full fledged war with such acts.