----------------------------------- The Rise of India as a Global Power -----------------------------------
¶10. (S) Delivering an intelligence assessment, Australian Office of National Assessment Director General Peter Varghese said India was undergoing a historic transition, especially in regards to economic policy. Politically, while the nation had some sense of its intentions vis-a-vis China and South Asia, it had yet to articulate a strategic worldview. Much of India,s future would be defined by its competitive relationship with China, which would shape its relations with the rest of East Asia. India would probably be less patient in its diplomatic relations than China, Varghese noted, but CANBERRA 00000004 003 OF 003 believed its ultimate interests lay with the forces of democracy and democratic change. India, Varghese concluded, viewed democracy as both a values-based and strategic asset.
¶11. (S) U/S Burns observed the U.S-India relationship was far more advanced in the private sector than government. India was not an ambivalent power, but one without a clear sense of global identity, with one foot still in the non-aligned camp and the other foot in the global actor camp. Burns agreed with Varghese,s conclusion that India was defined by its democratic system. U/S Burns also noted the U.S.-India relationship should not be defined through the prism of China. Predicting that India would be a priority for the new U.S. president in 2009, as it had been for President Bush, Burns listed a second green revolution, energy, military-to-military cooperation, and space as areas of potential cooperation. Accordingly, the TSD members should discuss areas of bilateral and multilateral cooperation.
¶12. (S) DFM Yabunaka noted he was very pleased with the evolving intelligence cooperation taking place in the TSD, said India served as an important counterbalance to China, and noted an Indian official had asked him: wasn,t it true that two nuclear powers in East Asia was better than one? On the other hand, DFM Yabunaka noted India was hampered by creaky infrastructure and a glacial bureaucratic decision-making process. The pace of change, development, and improvisation was far slower in India than in China, Yabunaka said, giving the Chinese a comparative advantage. ¶13. (U) This cable has been cleared by Under Secretary Burns.