Impacts on Ukraine war on Pakistan

[Khan vilatey]

Hi,

I wanted to get peoples opinion. We buy a lot of military equipment from Ukraine like:

• alkhalid engines and transmissions
• Upgrades to our t-80 UD fleet
• Anti tank missiles for our tanks
• upgrades to the PAF air refuelers/ tanker fleet

So there are three real questions
1) the poll question, do you think Russia will invade Ukraine and will they take over all of Ukraine? Will they make it part of Russia or install the original democratically elected governor that was over thrown by the west?

2) what will happen to our defence equipment/ projects in Ukraine

3) what will be Pakistan’s stance and in your opinion what should be Pakistan’s stance , will we keep quiet and not antagonize the Russians, will we support Russia and win some support or will we stand with Ukraine ?

please give reasons as I want to learn from your opinion

k

 

[Khan vilatey]

Hi,

I wanted to get peoples opinion. We buy a lot of military equipment from Ukraine like:

• alkhalid engines and transmissions
• Upgrades to our t-80 UD fleet
• Anti tank missiles for our tanks
• upgrades to the PAF air refuelers/ tanker fleet

So there are three real questions
1) the poll question, do you think Russia will invade Ukraine and will they take over all of Ukraine? Will they make it part of Russia or install the original democratically elected governor that was over thrown by the west?

2) what will happen to our defence equipment/ projects in Ukraine

3) what will be Pakistan’s stance and in your opinion what should be Pakistan’s stance , will we keep quiet and not antagonize the Russians, will we support Russia and win some support or will we stand with Ukraine ?

please give reasons as I want to learn from your opinion

k

My reply, I believe that Russia will invade Ukraine and go all the way to the niper river. They will then stop and concentrate on Kiev. The plan would be to reinstall a Russian friendly government in Ukraine, where the new government will give Russia base and give self rule to the dunbass region and accept the reunification of crimea with Russia.

the wests sanctions will not really work as it will be crying over spilt mike and since in the dead of winter Europe will not be willing to sacrifice its heating oil and gas supply.

the Pakistani government will give a non answer like both sides to negotiate and ceasefire and nothing else.

if we are smart and we unofficially agree with the Russians on our support our equipments Saftey and continuation of more advanced equipment via Ukraine will continue. What do you think?

k

 

[Shehryar Ashraf]

understand one thing.
a Russian invasion of ukraine, (if it happens) will likely coincide with a Chinese invasion of Taiwan island. triggering world war 3.
the US is stretched itself thin, forced to fight on multiple fronts. and that never ends well.

what Pakistan does, depends, you could see India using this moment to go to war with China, which would drag us into the war on the Russian/Chinese side.

 

[AZ1]

war not going to happen

 

[Khan vilatey]

war not going to happen

Why do you feel so?

k

 

[AZ1]

Why do you feel so?

k

Because that will cause this world(climate, food etc) not just one country. Weapons are not same as back in 1940's. If it's happens then that would be the last war for all of us.

 

[Khan vilatey]

Because that will cause this world(climate, food etc) not just one country. Weapons are not same as back in 1940's. If it's happens then that would be the last war for all of us.

understand one thing.
a Russian invasion of ukraine, (if it happens) will likely coincide with a Chinese invasion of Taiwan island. triggering world war 3.
the US is stretched itself thin, forced to fight on multiple fronts. and that never ends well.

what Pakistan does, depends, you could see India using this moment to go to war with China, which would drag us into the war on the Russian/Chinese side.

I am not certain that’s true, I believe the Chinese will sit this one out and have popcorn and learn lessons from the conflict on how effective are western javelins against Russian armor etc. China will not attack Taiwan for atleast another 10 years they would want their new 80-100 aircraft capable catapult capable aircraft Carriers to dominate Taiwan.

k

 

[SQ8]

The Russians were testing the waters for a Crimea 2.0 but this time the response was a little more than expected. This won’t really impact the relationship Pakistan has with Ukraine as the official Pakistani line has been “Everyone just get along” while the unofficial line “No idea what is about and not bothered to learn”

 

[Khan vilatey]

The Russians were testing the waters for a Crimea 2.0 but this time the response was a little more than expected. This won’t really impact the relationship Pakistan has with Ukraine as the official Pakistani line has been “Everyone just get along” while the unofficial line “No idea what is about and not bothered to learn”

Thank you, I enjoyed your response as always. I would like to unpack this a Bit more. My understanding from reading Various opinions on Washington post global and mail and watching analysis from DW, France 24 , RT and Global times Of the positions is as follows

Russia does not want NATO and EU presence on its border I.e Ukraine. If this balance as per the US agreement with Gorbachov is challenged, Russia is willing to go to war to readjust this balance. Russia also knows that Europe is dependent on its energy supply so the Europeans my not be very forthcoming in sanctioning Russia outside of token issues

the American position is quiet clear

there are no military options on the table. NATO does not want a nuclear exchange to defend Ukraine.

the Americans threaten Russia with sanctions but these are overused and will not achieve much in the Russian context as there is not enough trade between the countries. The downside of sanctioning Russia may result in extreme gas prices in the US due to shortages on the world stage and creating significant political instability for european leaders if inflation, high gas prices and Covid restraints affect their citizens In the dead of winter without enough energy supplies.

what is your opinion on war would Russia care ?

 

[Shehryar Ashraf]

I am not certain that’s true, I believe the Chinese will sit this one out and have popcorn and learn lessons from the conflict on how effective are western javelins against Russian armor etc. China will not attack Taiwan for atleast another 10 years they would want their new 80-100 aircraft capable catapult capable aircraft Carriers to dominate Taiwan.

k

you dont need carriers to dominate Taiwan. when you can bomb it from Mainland China and drop paratroopers.
perfect time to do that is when the US is busy elsewhere. preferably when it is occupied with Russia.

 

[SQ8]

Thank you, I enjoyed your response as always. I would like to unpack this a Bit more. My understanding from reading Various opinions on Washington post global and mail and watching analysis from DW, France 24 , RT and Global times Of the positions is as follows

Russia does not want NATO and EU presence on its border I.e Ukraine. If this balance as per the US agreement with Gorbachov is challenged, Russia is willing to go to war to readjust this balance. Russia also knows that Europe is dependent on its energy supply so the Europeans my not be very forthcoming in sanctioning Russia outside of token issues

the American position is quiet clear

there are no military options on the table. NATO does not want a nuclear exchange to defend Ukraine.

the Americans threaten Russia with sanctions but these are overused and will not achieve much in the Russian context as there is not enough trade between the countries. The downside of sanctioning Russia may result in extreme gas prices in the US due to shortages on the world stage and creating significant political instability for european leaders if inflation, high gas prices and Covid restraints affect their citizens In the dead of winter without enough energy supplies.

what is your opinion on war would Russia care ?

It all depends on backchannels at this point but wrapping up a 120k+ personnel exercise is a cost in terms of morale and cohesion as well.
American sanctions may no longer have the impact as much as European ones - at this time the relationship with other OPEC members is key in terms of them promising to offset Russian suppliers in case a conflict goes warm with a UAV or arty skirmish.
The Russians would prefer not to have a hostile Ukraine so they will do whatever they can to get that concession at the least. Most likely outcome is that Russia withdraws but so does the US and European military training and influence on Ukraine. A status quo of sorts is resumed and Russia gets a small recession in return.

 

[Khan vilatey]

you dont need carriers to dominate Taiwan. when you can bomb it from Mainland China and drop paratroopers.
perfect time to do that is when the US is busy elsewhere. preferably when it is occupied with Russia.

The carriers are for the US and Japan and missiles can only provide so much damage at the end CAS will be needed when engaging a motivated, fairly equipped Taiwan army in the mountains, that’s when drones and CAS will be crucial. I appreciate your insight but respectfully This is off topic and we should start a dedicated thread on this

k

 

[SuvarnaTeja]

Why do you feel so?

k

Russia is not strong enough to wage a war against Ukraine.

 

[Khan vilatey]

Russia is not strong enough to wage a war against Ukraine.

Why do you say this ?
K

 

[MultaniGuy]

Even if Russia invades Ukraine.

China is already a reliable alternative to Russia, Europe, and USA for defence contracts.

China has already much of the Soviet and Russian technologies.