If Vietnam can beat China, so can India. This is not 1962.

[HuangHe]

Control airspace is one of the important things in modern war, agree but not all.
This battle is one example when the US controlled all things in the sky but the US must abandon a major combat base because of enemy pressure. Of course, You accept the heavy damage than the enemy. It also depends on the Indian-Chinese border terrain.

I don't consider Vietnam War is modern war. Technology advancement in weaponry since then is so great to make it looks like ancient war. US learnt a lot for that war and almost rebuilt its military force. Today, US can achieve any military goal without “abandon” anything. Politic is another story. China studied this technical advancement very thoroughly and follows US very closely.

 

[sinait]

No, historically that waterfall didnot belong to Vietnam wholefully!
According to Qing - France Border Treaty, more than half of that waterfall belonged to China. After the Vietnam - China Border Treaty 1999, the current status quo of the area is that each country controls half of the “waterfall area”, with the main waterfall belongs to Vietnam. There are also several agreements between both countries to exploit the area in term of tourism.
Vietnamese source
http://vnexpress.net/tin-tuc/the-gi...-ban-gioc-duoc-phan-chia-the-nao-3134512.html

Thanks for the link, interesting read.
So you are saying China just took what are rightfully theirs and nothing more.
Shows how China is fair to their neighbors and that's why China is able to conclude border agreements with all 14 land neighbors except for imperialistic and land grabbing bully India.
India forcefully annexed many princely states since independence 1947.
China and Vietnam should do more such cooperation for the benefit of both countries.
Despite some historic differences with China, Vietnam is better off to be neighbor of China instead of India.
.

 

[Jlaw]

[

let few baboons here jump up and down grunting for to be killed for a few more days, a slow death of the preys without the knowing of when and from where the predators are coming is an entertainment.

If they want 2.5 war, they will get 2.5 war.
View attachment 414158

A recent article by a PLA general staff has summed up pretty well about China's position and strategy.
莫迪先生，无条件退兵是你们印度的最佳选择

军事专家罗富强

莫迪先生：

您好！你们印度的军队越界阻挠中方修路，中印两军在洞朗地区对峙已经一个多月了。印军越界阻挠中方修路，中方外交和国防部已经多次表态要求你方撤军，但你们至今拒不回撤，事态似乎向着战争方向发展，这是很糟糕的现实问题。

作为一名好几年前就退休了的解放军军官，我两次经历战争。第一次就不必说了，但第二次值得说说：那是2006夏天在黎巴嫩与你们国家的军队一起经历的：以色列与黎巴嫩真主党的全面战争，也是一场非对称作战的现代化战争，我们中国军队与你们印度军队是友军。那一场战争以后，联合国驻黎巴嫩临时部队里的中印两国部队之间建立起了深厚的友谊。

遗憾的是——今天事情发展到两国有可能再次开战的地步，这是您的错误决策导致的。

今天我要对您说的总的一句话是：莫迪先生，该退兵了！无条件自动退兵是你们的最佳选择。我之所以不用“撤军”一词，是因为你们那些不是太多的军人采用的是非作战方式进入中国境内不远的距离。

但是，因为你们越界军人明显属于有组织、有计划的小规模军事行动，并且是长期的军事行动，这也可以视为入侵行为。我要对您说四句话：

第一句：无条件自动退兵，是你们的最佳选择。

请您以及你们的将军们一定要正确判断情况，不要再用五年以前的思维模式判断中国和解放军。今日的中国和解放军不仅比1962年强大无数倍，今天的解放军与五年前的解放军同样大不相同，这是因为今天的中央军委与五年前的中央军委大有不同。中国之所以至今没有立即采取行动驱逐你们的军人，绝不是中国软弱的表现，而是中国人一向坚持以理服人，中国热爱和平，维护世界和平；但如果通过和平手段无法维护国家根本利益的时候，面对欺人太甚的情况，中国不会以牺牲国家荣誉、牺牲民族利益换取和平的，忍耐都是有限度的。

中国有句古话叫做“先礼后兵”就是这个道理，含义很深。

莫迪先生，我知道也许您是为了与中国争雄亚洲，遏制中国发展，处于本国安全担忧，出于访问美国期间迎合美国胃口的政治和外交需要，拉拢美国和日本抗衡中国“一带一路”的发展倡议和战略，甚至还是国内政治需要才做出的决定。

也许您和你们的军队现在是骑虎难下：撤退吧，会感觉丢人，会被国内反对党抓住把柄批评和攻击，甚至还会损失未来的选票。不撤退吧，对峙下去实际意义不大，有可能引发大规模战争，甚至可能导致战败，会导致你们党派是去执政地位，甚至还有更加严重的后果。

权衡一下：主动撤退，代价相对很小，不撤退的代价很大。

自己从老虎背上下来稳当多了，大不了别人笑话一下。但如果打肿脸充胖子，从老虎背上摔下来，那就很惨了，后果很严重，甚至性命不保。

第二句话：如果中国采取有限军事手段驱逐你们的越界军人，你们会吃大亏的，中印双方的伤亡比例至少是1:20。

不要轻信你们那些将军的话，他们的作战方案肯定斗不过解放军的！

也许他们有的人很想打仗，很想挽回1962年印度战败的面子，所以总是怂恿您和中国打仗。但不排除，主张与中国打仗的将军们一部分人是这样想的，一部分不是这样想的，不这样想的那一部分将军们是为了提升和巩固自己的政治地位，拿国家的前途命运冒风险。

也许他们告诉您了，印度在边境地区的军事力量是中国的十几倍以上，拥有绝对的力量优势，解放军如果采取小规模作战行动，毫无胜算可能，而你们胜算在握。

我要告诉您的是：中国一旦采取有限规模的军事手段，不仅可以成功驱逐你们的越界军人，并且在可控的有限战争范围内，你们的损失起码是中国的20倍以上。

解放军的指挥官们肯定不会按照你们军方判断和希望的那样去做——采用地面部队小规模作战行动驱逐你们的越界军人。

面对你们经营了几十年的防御阵地建设，已经在洞朗山口至乃堆拉山口一线和纵深构筑了“营地+阵地”的防御模式；面对你们在乃堆拉方向多于解放军十几倍甚至更多的兵力，面对你们完善的后方保障体系，采取小规模的地面进攻作战方式，等于自投罗网。历来有勇有谋的解放军不会这样去打仗的，你们那些将军们的想法太机械，非常一厢情愿。

卫星图片显示的印方营地、掩体等。

如果中方军官看了这些卫星照片，试想一下，面对你们印度军队如此完善的防御体系，哪一个蠢蛋会采取小规模军事手段就在你们眼皮底下从下至上地武力驱逐你们的越界军人？但是，这并不等于没有办法驱赶你们的越界军人。法国的“马其诺防线”不过是浪费人力物力财力的摆设而已，你们的这些防御工事，也将是一样的结局。

如果是我做主，我会采取可控的军事手段——“炮击驱逐”你们越界的军人，结果是中国大赢、你们印度大输。

如果中国军方采用“由远至近、逐渐延伸”的炮兵作战手段，一点一点地向你们越界军人占领的地方射击，请问：他们撤还是不撤？恐怕你的官兵没那么勇敢吧？

中国军队是在自己的领土上炮击，火炮并没有射入你方领土，并且是在你们越境一个多月以后才采取的手段，这在国际法理上没有什么大问题。可以赢得中立的理性国家理解和支持。

那么问题来了！你们的军队敢不敢向中国境内实施炮火反击？如果采取，那么就是你方就由越界变为典型的军事侵略战争了，变成发动战争了。

如果你们的军队真的敢于炮火反击，打击中国境内的目标，好了！解放军比你们先进得多的各类火炮、火箭炮也可以向你方境内军事目标实施大规模覆盖打击了，你们的悲剧就开始了……

莫迪先生，先请你看看这些照片吧！

印军部队在乃堆拉方向部署情况的卫星照片。

虽然您贵为印军三军统帅，但具体的一些情况也许还不如我了解。请看看你们部队在乃堆拉方向部署情况的卫星照片吧：你们部署在乃堆拉山口一线和南侧山体纵深内的部队，兵力非常充足，是中国的几十倍，但由于山高坡陡，部队只能部署在山坳里或者山体上有限和难得的平缓地带，包括“阵地+营地”的体系在内，正好是解放军各类火炮、火箭炮实现集中覆盖、集中杀伤的最佳目标。

看了你们的兵力部署情况，莫迪先生，请您再对比一下这些方面：

1、对比一下双方的军事目标数量：中方在亚东县境内的军事目标数量只有你们5%左右，如果炮战打起来，谁的损失大？

2、对比一下双方的火炮射程：解放军的火箭炮世界一流，其他火炮性能也比你们优越。解放军的各类火炮、火箭炮射程相互弥补，从400千米到300米的都有。解放军的火炮、火箭炮阵地可以在你们印度军队的射程之外实施射击，让你们的炮兵成为“短手”。如果炮战打起来，谁吃亏？

3、对比一下双方的地形：中国亚东县城以北地区有很多开阔地形，路况也很好，火炮射击完后马上可以转移阵地。而你们则不行，山高坡陡，道路很少路况很差，兵力又很密集，根本没地方转移炮阵地，发射完了以后就只能拜托解放军的火炮打不准。打起来谁吃亏？

4、对比一下平民数量：你们位于火炮射程内的居民地远比中国要多，起码是中方的100倍，如果你们敢于射击居民区，且不说现代社会里那是反人类的犯罪行为，如果中国忍无可忍以牙还牙，残杀民众又是谁吃亏？如果疏散平民，谁的代价更大？

第三句话：如果印度决心与中国大决战，就是印度灭亡的开始。

也许您的将军们还告诉您了，中国为了目前的发展，优先解决台湾问题和南海问题，对于印度的行动不会采用军事手段，不敢打仗，尤其不敢打大规模的战争，最终只会忍气吞声默认事实。

如果印度真如你们国防部长说的要打“2.5线战争”，那么等着印度的就是国家的解体甚至灭亡。

莫迪先生，先请您看看这张可怕的作战态势图：

印度可能存在的“2.5线战争”态势图。

莫迪先生，看了过后是不是感到后背发凉、内心恐惧？这仅仅是我一个已经退休多年的、在军队时也从未进入过高层核心决策圈的局外人的作战构思，并且仅仅是一个相当于贵国准将军衔的军官自己考虑的方案。而解放军是一支高手云集的军队，具有很多的军事专家，掌握很多的情报信息，解放军核心决策圈内指定的计划，恐怕还要比我这个厉害得多。

莫迪先生，请您一定要注意：如果中印之间大战，有四种情况和结局对印度而言简直就是毁灭性的：

第一，中国的决心可能会超乎您的想象。解放军不会仅仅是反击，也绝不可能还像1962年那样得胜之后立马主动停战，班师回朝,让你们又一次逐步推进占领大片地区；这一次，一定会同步收复中国的藏南地区（你们占领并称为的“阿鲁纳恰尔邦”）。

特别需要强调的是：中国对于台湾，主要原因是不忍心动武，因为那是内战；但如果，是你们印度挑起大规模战争，这就不是内战，而是对外捍卫国家主权和领土完整的战争。一旦打败你们印度，台湾看到了解放军的战斗力，台独势力将会基本死心，和平统一解决台湾问题就是水到渠成的事情了。

第二，巴基斯坦不会袖手旁观。且不说如果你们决议开战，中巴之间极有可能会联手作战，即便巴基斯坦不与中国联手，也极有可能会“乘火打劫”，乘机采取行动占领整个克什米尔地区吧。如果巴基斯坦联手与中国一道进攻新德里，你们的首都恐怕只有被迫搬迁一条路。

第三，中国还会解救邻国。

第四，中国也可能肢解印度。中国一定会掐断西里古里走廊，使你们的东北部成为孤岛。即使不用地面出兵占领，一样可以掐断西里古里走廊。在平均宽度超过10千米的布拉马普特拉河、平均宽度超过5千米的默哈嫩达河等等河流上，桥梁非常有限，解放军的精确制导炸弹与火箭炮都可以将其轻松炸毁。解放军还将通过炸毁江河纵横的这个孤岛上的桥梁，把孤岛切割成无数个孤立板块，彻底摧毁你们军队保障体系、作战意志和民众意志。

印度东北主要河流多、流速快，桥梁对交通运输非常重要。

你们也不要指望借道孟加拉国。不仅仅是孟加拉国不愿意把战火引入自己国家，那时候也有能力抗衡你们；即便是你们强行借道孟加拉恢复对东北部的交通也是不可能的，因为汇入了布拉马普特拉河（雅鲁藏布江下游）、提斯塔河、默哈嫩达河、恒河等等河流之后的贾木纳河平均宽度不低于15千米，流量世界第一，夏季洪水流量甚至超过50000m3/s。这种河道上仅有的一座桥梁一旦被毁，战争期间几乎无法恢复。

一旦大战打起来，你们东北六邦孤立无援，成为战争“孤岛”，必然陷入绝望，官员和民众更会因为对你们好战带来的不幸引发不满。这样一来，印度不仅不可能“改变安全现状”，不可能“一雪前耻”，还会走上更痛苦的失败之路。

综上所述，莫迪先生，再次奉劝您：无条件退兵，是您和印度的最佳选项。中国驻印度前外交官说过你们越界军人只有三种结果：主动撤军、被俘虏、被歼灭。我的看法略有不同：主动撤军最幸运、炮火驱逐最丢脸、大战一打印度灭。

第四句话：与中国为敌没有出路，和平共处联合发展才能共赢，不要妄想拉拢其他国家遏制中国。

1、印度的经济体量仅有中国的五分之一，持久战争能力远不如中国。

2、印度军队军事装备依靠进口的太多，品牌繁杂，保障困难并且受制于人。而中国的军事装备绝大多数都是国产，各类保障配的套性好，而且不受制于人，战争的组织能力、保障能力、动员能力都很强。

3、印度的制造业远比中国落后，中国是世界第一生产制造综合强国，支撑战争的大规模战争、持久战争的能力很强。

4、印度的政治体制不适合印度国情，中央政府的决策效益极低，权力很小；从现实角度看印度还不能算得上真正统一的国家，地方政府拥有很独立的权力，中央政府不能有效指挥和调动地方政府，甚至有的邦使用的官方语言都是外国的（孟加拉语），制定自己的税收法律等等。而中国的政治体制最适合中国国情，中国政府是当今世界上最高效的政府，中央的权力高度集中统一，国内政权是铁板一块，地方政府能够以最快的行动完成甚至超额完成中央政府下达的绝大多数任务，中国这种政治和经济体制对于支撑战争具有重大作用。

5、印度的历史和现状，使得国内很不稳定，谋求独立在一些邦内具有广泛的民意和官方意愿，大战期间这些邦极有可能在战事不利的情况下掀起独立运动。而中国独有的政治环境使分裂势力缺乏广泛支持，成不了气候，越是发生战争国内越会团结稳定。

6、印度的传统文化，包括宗教文化的高度盛行，使民众普遍缺乏战斗精神；特别是种姓制度，使印度社会永远缺乏基本的平等，并且是严重的不平等，军队中除了官阶等级之外还有“新老等级”“种姓等级”，这种文化和体制造就的是军队“超多层级”“超低效率”和“被动服从”三大弊端，部队缺乏主观能动性，广大官兵尤其是士兵普遍缺乏保家卫国的战斗精神，一旦开战，部队的战斗力比起战前就会突然下滑，在遇到危机时就会瞬间崩溃。这些问题是谁也解决不了的问题，是无论如何也改革不了的问题。因此，你们印度的军队是“静态很强，动态不强”。这是印度特有的历史、文化、政治体制之下的死结问题。

这个问题，莫迪先生您解决不了，100年以内谁也解决不了。

7、由于上述的先天因素，印度要想超越中国、战胜中国是不可能的。印度的最佳选择，是国内推行“渐进式改革”，国际上把中国视为第一合作对象，共建“一带一路”，共同谋取发展，实现合作共赢的目标。

8、中印之间的领土争端是历史问题，总有非分之想是错误的，现代社会只能通过现代文明的外交手段加以解决，尊重历史，相对公平合理地解决。如果印度树立了与中国为伴、共同发展的理念，那么中国在洞朗地区修路，就应该视为造福于两国人民的行为，应该支持才对。如果中方不是修通和改善了乃堆拉山口一侧中方境内的道路，印方朝圣的民众如何能够享受那么好的交通便利？如何发展两国边境贸易？

9、美国不可能帮助印度介入中印战争，日本更不可能。不要忘了，这两个国家原来就是死敌，美国不过是利用二战战败了的日本，牵制亚洲国家的发展强大，提升美国在亚洲的话语份量和自身利益。而日本不过是想借助美国撑腰，伺机再次称霸亚洲。对于这种狼狈为奸的国际角色，莫迪先生，你要是试图利用他们遏制中国，固然对于中国不利，但对于印度更加不利。

“远亲不如近邻”，这是千古哲理。

http://news.ifeng.com/a/20170726/51507444_0.shtml

最好笑咖哩味的人以為大陸會向東浪出 兵

 

[kursed]

I highly doubt the situation will escalate, India has played this to their advantage. And going by Chinese conciliatory tone post Doval meeting, they'd be announcing steps to step back from this. Not entirely sure if this will change the way China looks at India, but guessing that India won this round.

 

[LeGenD]

There is no guarantee that India can defeat China in a war because Vietnam managed to (in 1979). I would not subscribe to this kind of logic because every conflict have its set of dynamics and chances of victory rest upon an interplay of several factors such as level of preparation, disparity in military capability, training of troops, political will and strategy.

Conversely, India should not be underestimated as an adversary. Outcome of a confrontation may vary from region to region and Indians might be better prepared and/or more determined today then they were in 1962. However, China is likely to do its homework.

 

[Han Patriot]

I highly doubt the situation will escalate, India has played this to their advantage. And going by Chinese conciliatory tone post Doval meeting, they'd be announcing steps to step back from this. Not entirely sure if this will change the way China looks at India, but guessing that India won this round.

Please check Xinhua online. Don't read Indian websites alone, there is no mention of Doval at all. I can assure you China will not back down from India withdrawing first. So don't go so fast on saying India won this round, this is not a game at all.

 

[ito]

I guess there will no war and no peace between India and China, until Xi fate is decided by CCP for his next term.

 

[Tiqiu]

[

最好笑咖哩味的人以為大陸會向東浪出 兵

That's right. Having brains is what some of our neighbours are lacking of here.

And these having-balls guys are always making me LOL, everytime.

 

[terranMarine]

That's right. Having brains is what some of our neighbours are lacking of here.

And these having-balls guys are always making me LOL, everytime.

Holy SH!T no wonder the Hindus here claim they have balls. Now i'm really starting to panic if China has to deal with these mighty warriors. The US won't be a match for these hypa soldiers either, Yankees might even look like pussies after watching that video.

 

[Tiqiu]

And maybe this fellow is trying to prove he is the having-balls?

Back on topic as on China having balls or not, Let's see who is going to withdraw and whether the road is continued to be built or not. The new road links to the existing road work around nathula pass (all white lines on China's side), which makes our Indian neighbour unsettled.

 

[manlion]

China - No compromise

 

[sinait]

There is no guarantee that India can defeat China in a war because Vietnam managed to (in 1979). I would not subscribe to this kind of logic because every conflict have its set of dynamics and chances of victory rest upon an interplay of several factors such as level of preparation, disparity in military capability, training of troops, political will and strategy.

Conversely, India should not be underestimated as an adversary. Outcome of a confrontation may vary from region to region and Indians might be better prepared and/or more determined today then they were in 1962. However, China is likely to do its homework.

I don't understand why many people keep repeating this myth that Vietnam defeat China in 1979.
I contend that Vietnam acquit themselves very well but definitely did not defeat China.
Or else why they would allow China to scorch earth destroy their land and even ceded An Nam Gate and parts of Ban Gioc Waterfall to China after the war. Isn't it an illogical thing to do for a victorious Vietnam.
Do not keep repeating such nonsense, similar to how the Indians portray China as the aggressors in 1962 for many decades by the Western Powers controlled media propaganda.
Vietnamese are East Asians with Confucian values, so its laughable that the Indians want to compare themselves with the Vietnamese.

Below is link from Vietnam on aftermath of border war with China.
http://viettan.org/China-rift-opens-in-Vietnam.html
" To date, neither Hanoi nor Beijing has disclosed the exact details of the border agreement or a new official map. In a single interview with state media, a Vietnamese deputy foreign minister responsible for the negotiations downplayed Vietnam’s loss of major cultural landmarks, including the Ai Nam gate and the Ban Gioc waterfall.

He rejected accusations on blogs and overseas websites that his government ceded territory by arguing that the government managed to keep most of the Tuc Lam River bank - despite the fact that according to historical maps the entire area had once belonged to Vietnam.
"
.

 

[xiao qi]

I don't understand why many people keep repeating this myth that Vietnam defeat China in 1979.
I contend that Vietnam acquit themselves very well but definitely did not defeat China.
Or else why they would allow China to scorch earth destroy their land and even ceded An Nam Gate and parts of Ban Gioc Waterfall to China after the war. Isn't it an illogical thing to do for a victorious Vietnam.
Do not keep repeating such nonsense, similar to how the Indians portray China as the aggressors in 1962 for many decades by the Western Powers controlled media propaganda.
Vietnamese are East Asians with Confucian values, so its laughable that the Indians want to compare themselves with the Vietnamese.

Below is link from Vietnam on aftermath of border war with China.
http://viettan.org/China-rift-opens-in-Vietnam.html
" To date, neither Hanoi nor Beijing has disclosed the exact details of the border agreement or a new official map. In a single interview with state media, a Vietnamese deputy foreign minister responsible for the negotiations downplayed Vietnam’s loss of major cultural landmarks, including the Ai Nam gate and the Ban Gioc waterfall.

He rejected accusations on blogs and overseas websites that his government ceded territory by arguing that the government managed to keep most of the Tuc Lam River bank - despite the fact that according to historical maps the entire area had once belonged to Vietnam.
"
.

Sigh, If You are Vietnamese and give the link Viettan to mock Vietnamese government, so people will laugh at you because Viettan.org is an organization was backed up by CIA to against Vietnam government. Their information almost is not exact and fake. You better should learn and find the exact information because I'm a Vietnamese and I understand the issues more than a foreign like you. You can search for the Battle of Lao Son ( 1509 hill) to get more knowledge How Vietnamese react to Vietnamese territory was occupied by Chinese. If you don't know the incident you can ask one Chinese in PDF( His avatar was Chinese propaganda for this ) @Dungeness

 

[Han Patriot]

Sigh, If You are Vietnamese and give the link Viettan to mock Vietnamese government, so people will laugh at you because Viettan.org is an organization was backed up by CIA to against Vietnam government. Their information almost is not exact and fake. You better should learn and find the exact information because I'm a Vietnamese and I understand the issues more than a foreign like you. You can search for the Battle of Lao Son ( 1509 hill) to get more knowledge How Vietnamese react to Vietnamese territory was occupied by Chinese. If you don't know the incident you can ask one Chinese in PDF( His avatar was Chinese propaganda for this incident) @Dungeness

The Viets are good and persistent fighters but how exactly did Vietnam defeat China remains a mystery since we retreated before the main Viet army came back. The goal of the war was never about occupying Vietnam, it was to show Vietnam China could invade Vietnam easily, and they did exactly that. It was also to proof that Soviets will not help Vietnam. However, we lost the strategic goal of forcing Vietnam to wothdraw from Cambodia. We did however managed to capture Vietnamnese islands, etc. Overall, I would say it's a partial victory for China since our casualties were much lower than Vietnamnese casualties and the damage inflicted on Vietnam was severe, on the contrary, China did not suffer much damage on their side.

 

[Super Falcon]

Than neither it is 72 and when did Vietnam even think of beating China