IAF strike into Pakistan - A simulation of sorts

[SQ8]

@Oscar :
I am no warfare expert but want to know if the below scenario can be simulated

10 MKIs intruding Pak air space just before the dawn and after Pak responce all Mig-29K from wiki making a sweep into Pak and try to complete the bombing objective and head to Land based and Viki returning back with carrier group.

Two fronts on two side attack will have element of surprise
Can this sim be run ???

Sure, Ill see what I can do.

You've used old numbers for MKI, so yes, you've underestimated IAF equipment. You've used numbers from the 1995-2000 period which were relevant up to 2012 or even 2013. 2014 onwards, the numbers are different. Dozens of new upgrades have been initiated and that includes a major radar upgrade.

So-
RadarAzimuthLimit=70 = wrong
RadarElevationLimit=60 = wrong
RadarSearchRange=210 = wrong
RadarSearchStrength=180 = wrong

You will have to consider the newly upgraded N-011M, not the old N-011M.

Why don't you check up on the news for the Russian Su-30SM? What they really say about the Bars.

https://defencerussia.wordpress.com...t-to-upgrade-radar-control-system-of-su-30sm/


Right now, with the first phase complete, NIIP is discussing with the IAF and obviously with the RuAF to take Bars up to the Irbis-E level.

So your radar search range and search angles figures are completely obsolete.

LOL.. ok.. So what does in terms of the game do the numbers mean if you believe they are wrong?
What does Radar search range=210 mean? Tell me.

 

[Sergi]

Sure, Ill see what I can do.

.

Thanks. But plz do one thing use MKIs just for distraction and to cover return of 29K to land mass and 29Ks to deliver the package
Thanks in advance.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

Is India going to be attacking from Pakistan's Western Borders? Does India posse the stealthy MH-60?

The bulk of Pakistan's Surveillance Equipment is pointed towards India, and there are multiple layers of radar coverage to combat Low and High Flying Indian Fast Movers. The chances of India carrying out a surprise attack against Pakistan are almost zero to none. The IAF will have to fight its way through every inch, and i am not even taking PA's HUMAINT into account.

let them bark like they did in 2010....they wont dare to do squat (but a part of me wishes they'd try)

 

[SQ8]

Thanks. But plz do one thing use MKIs just for distraction and to cover return of 29K to land mass and 29Ks to deliver the package
Thanks in advance.

Did that, NO other change to any settings (avionics, radar , pilot skill etc). In fact , I made it worse in terms of quantity ratio to almost 2.5:1 in favour of the IAF.


The results are pretty bad for the IAF.. really bad. Will upload and show.
But in a nutshell, I think the change of target ( Souther sector which is more defended, Terrain and sortie timing). I also think just MKI's as a distraction is a bad idea. You need the package with SEAD and stand off strikes instead of just a distraction or just a fighter sweep.

Still, as you'll see in a bit.. I was not expecting it to be bad at all for the IAF.. or this bad.

 

[WaLeEdK2]

Did that, NO other change to any settings (avionics, radar , pilot skill etc). In fact , I made it worse in terms of quantity ratio to almost 2.5:1 in favour of the IAF.


The results are pretty bad for the IAF.. really bad. Will upload and show.
But in a nutshell, I think the change of target ( Souther sector which is more defended, Terrain and sortie timing). I also think just MKI's as a distraction is a bad idea. You need the package with SEAD and stand off strikes instead of just a distraction or just a fighter sweep.

Still, as you'll see in a bit.. I was not expecting it to be bad at all for the IAF.. or this bad.

Sir, have you tried a more realistic approach to the simulation? I reckon that the PAF would not send in as few aircraft as was presented.

 

[SQ8]

Sir, have you tried a more realistic approach to the simulation? I reckon that the PAF would not send in as few aircraft as was presented.

I am constantly trying to improve it. This is the result of the user's request

The simulation only changes where what is placed, number and time. NOTHING is changed from the previous simulation in terms of avionics or pilot skill for both sides; IAF and PAF both have excellent pilot skills in this.

SCENARIO:

IAF/IN Strike package into PAF SOUTHCOM- MASROOR

IAF:
8 x Su-30MKI simulating a strike package but loaded with Air to Air. IAS Jamnagar
8 x Mig-29K ( Essentially the early Mig-29K 3d model but changed to match the current IN spec in terms of avionics). INS Vikramaditya
3 x Brahmos ground launchers linked with AFNET for coordinates to hit SAM sites ( did not play out as the HQ-9 battery kept using intermittent radar techniques to not allow a fix)

PAF
2 x F-16 Block-52 on CAP from Jacobabad
3 x JF-17 Scramble from Masroor
2 x Mirage III ROSE Masroor

ADGE Pakistan:
HQ-9 battery near Malir cantt.
Spada 2000 battery near Masroor

Result:
Total IAF loss, entire attack group fell prey to PAF defences. PAF lost 2 x F-16s and 1 Each of Mirage III & JF-17.

The initial problems came after the IAF's diversion as per user @Sergi 's request started being tracked by the HQ-9 battery after they took off. The Brahmos battery never got the right coordinates from the MKI due to them being too busy jamming at high power.

This alerted the F-16 Patrol who flew low near the Makli hills complex and avoided the MKI's trying to get a radar lock and intercept them. Once the MKI's got close enough, the F-16s launched a volley of AIM-120's. The result was 3 MKI's being lost before they regrouped to engage and terminate the F-16s.

The mig-29Ks were going to fly in low using a western approach to avoid coverage in that sector, but considering both PN and ZDK coverage in the south, they were detected and JF-17s scrambled.

All the while the MKI's have HQ-9 sams being launched at them. By the time they dealt with the F-16s, The masroor alert5 group of Jf-17s took off..
The Mig-29's were at this time evading early HQ-9 launches when they engaged the JF-17s, however.. being overwhelmed by both HQ-9 launches and JF-17 SD-10's.. they fell fast.
The PAF defenders returned pretty victorious.


Conclusion:

A limited strike plus diversion into a heavily defended area like Pakistan Southern Port city and defence complex is suicide. This demands a well coordinated strike package of at least 50 jets that includes SEAD, Escort, Top Cover and Stand off systems working in cohesion to achieve results.

Anything less will lead to this massacre.

 

[randomradio]

LOL.. ok.. So what does in terms of the game do the numbers mean if you believe they are wrong?

Increased probability of detection, increased targeting accuracy etc. Of course I'm not sure if the simulator takes into account other technologies like new software and the ES hardware.

A F-16C has no radar advantage versus the F-15C. The Bars is obviously better than what the non-AESA F-15C carried.

What does Radar search range=210 mean? Tell me.

It's range. But it's just a number without target RCS and probability of detection.

If it means the F-16 can be picked up from less than 210Km away, then that's an obsolete number. The MKI has demonstrated that range against a clean Mirage-2000-5 during exercises, let alone an armed F-16, with the old Bars of course.

Clue: You can say the Rafale's RBE-2AA (AESA) and Bars-R (upgraded Bars) more or less match in range with half the power radiated for the Bars.

 

[Sergi]

@Oscar : thanks for sim.
One question though. Why are you using lower number of jets ???

I means if PAF detects 8 inbound MKIs why only two 16s will be scambbled ??? After active engagement why not more bogies in air ??? I think PAF will and have to put more numbers in air than attacker.

Can I ask for another scenario ??? If you have time. Thanks

Did that, NO other change to any settings (avionics, radar , pilot skill etc). In fact , I made it worse in terms of quantity ratio to almost 2.5:1 in favour of the IAF.


The results are pretty bad for the IAF.. really bad. Will upload and show.
But in a nutshell, I think the change of target ( Souther sector which is more defended, Terrain and sortie timing). I also think just MKI's as a distraction is a bad idea. You need the package with SEAD and stand off strikes instead of just a distraction or just a fighter sweep.

Still, as you'll see in a bit.. I was not expecting it to be bad at all for the IAF.. or this bad.

As I said I am not an expert in air warfare strategy. My idea was 18 Mig-29K and 10 MKIs. Fast in fast out . Sim is pretty bad for this idea.

let them bark like they did in 2010....they wont dare to do squat (but a part of me wishes they'd try)

Nothing to add but reading your comment I remember one quote
" be careful what you wish for, you might actually get what you wish "

 

[Hell hound]

I am constantly trying to improve it. This is the result of the user's request

The simulation only changes where what is placed, number and time. NOTHING is changed from the previous simulation in terms of avionics or pilot skill for both sides; IAF and PAF both have excellent pilot skills in this.

SCENARIO:

IAF/IN Strike package into PAF SOUTHCOM- MASROOR

IAF:
8 x Su-30MKI simulating a strike package but loaded with Air to Air. IAS Jamnagar
8 x Mig-29K ( Essentially the early Mig-29K 3d model but changed to match the current IN spec in terms of avionics). INS Vikramaditya
3 x Brahmos ground launchers linked with AFNET for coordinates to hit SAM sites ( did not play out as the HQ-9 battery kept using intermittent radar techniques to not allow a fix)

PAF
2 x F-16 Block-52 on CAP from Jacobabad
3 x JF-17 Scramble from Masroor
2 x Mirage III ROSE Masroor

ADGE Pakistan:
HQ-9 battery near Malir cantt.
Spada 2000 battery near Masroor

Result:
Total IAF loss, entire attack group fell prey to PAF defences. PAF lost 2 x F-16s and 1 Each of Mirage III & JF-17.

The initial problems came after the IAF's diversion as per user @Sergi 's request started being tracked by the HQ-9 battery after they took off. The Brahmos battery never got the right coordinates from the MKI due to them being too busy jamming at high power.

This alerted the F-16 Patrol who flew low near the Makli hills complex and avoided the MKI's trying to get a radar lock and intercept them. Once the MKI's got close enough, the F-16s launched a volley of AIM-120's. The result was 3 MKI's being lost before they regrouped to engage and terminate the F-16s.

The mig-29Ks were going to fly in low using a western approach to avoid coverage in that sector, but considering both PN and ZDK coverage in the south, they were detected and JF-17s scrambled.

All the while the MKI's have HQ-9 sams being launched at them. By the time they dealt with the F-16s, The masroor alert5 group of Jf-17s took off..
The Mig-29's were at this time evading early HQ-9 launches when they engaged the JF-17s, however.. being overwhelmed by both HQ-9 launches and JF-17 SD-10's.. they fell fast.
The PAF defenders returned pretty victorious.


Conclusion:

A limited strike plus diversion into a heavily defended area like Pakistan Southern Port city and defence complex is suicide. This demands a well coordinated strike package of at least 50 jets that includes SEAD, Escort, Top Cover and Stand off systems working in cohesion to achieve results.

Anything less will lead to this massacre.

what was their objective or target.did they hit it and the missile that keep hitting the ground where they sam missiles or was the mig 29's strike package

@Oscar : thanks for sim.
One question though. Why are you using lower number of jets ???

I means if PAF detects 8 inbound MKIs why only two 16s will be scambbled ??? After active engagement why not more bogies in air ??? I think PAF will and have to put more numbers in air than attacker.

Can I ask for another scenario ??? If you have time. Thanks


As I said I am not an expert in air warfare strategy. My idea was 18 Mig-29K and 10 MKIs. Fast in fast out . Sim is pretty bad for this idea.


Nothing to add but reading your comment I remember one quote
" be careful what you wish for, you might actually get what you wish "

i think he was trying to show the numerical advantage you guys have.

 

[SQ8]

Increased probability of detection, increased targeting accuracy etc. Of course I'm not sure if the simulator takes into account other technologies like new software and the ES hardware.

A F-16C has no radar advantage versus the F-15C. The Bars is obviously better than what the non-AESA F-15C carried.



It's range. But it's just a number without target RCS and probability of detection.

If it means the F-16 can be picked up from less than 210Km away, then that's an obsolete number. The MKI has demonstrated that range against a clean Mirage-2000-5 during exercises, let alone an armed F-16, with the old Bars of course.

Clue: You can say the Rafale's RBE-2AA (AESA) and Bars-R (upgraded Bars) more or less match in range with half the power radiated for the Bars.

Lol, you are just a cry baby who cant stand losing even a little. That is 210M.
please stay out of my thread.

@Oscar : thanks for sim.
One question though. Why are you using lower number of jets ???

I means if PAF detects 8 inbound MKIs why only two 16s will be scambbled ??? After active engagement why not more bogies in air ??? I think PAF will and have to put more numbers in air than attacker.

Can I ask for another scenario ??? If you have time. Thanks


As I said I am not an expert in air warfare strategy. My idea was 18 Mig-29K and 10 MKIs. Fast in fast out . Sim is pretty bad for this idea.


Nothing to add but reading your comment I remember one quote
" be careful what you wish for, you might actually get what you wish "

Im not sure if the Vikramaditya could generate such a sortie rate.
Fast in , fast out isnt easy when you have a well defended Target area like the Southern sector. That area is better tackled by stand off weaponry as my next attempt will be.

I will change the scenario to the package I have recommended are reupload it.

 

[Sergi]

Lol, you are just a cry baby who cant stand losing even a little. That is 210M.
please stay out of my thread.



Im not sure if the Vikramaditya could generate such a sortie rate.
Fast in , fast out isnt easy when you have a well defended Target area like the Southern sector. That area is better tackled by stand off weaponry as my next attempt will be.

I will change the scenario to the package I have recommended are reupload it.

Viki can launch 5 birds in 10 mins. Don't ask how I come to know. But when on such missions it has to be more.
Anyways thanks.

And if it is possible try Viki air arm as distraction and package in your original senario as strick group. The way my request went I am sure this new req will cover all the losses and we will win

 

[Dr Gupta]

Is India going to be attacking from Pakistan's Western Borders? Does India posse the stealthy MH-60?

The bulk of Pakistan's Surveillance Equipment is pointed towards India, and there are multiple layers of radar coverage to combat Low and High Flying Indian Fast Movers. The chances of India carrying out a surprise attack against Pakistan are almost zero to none. The IAF will have to fight its way through every inch, and i am not even taking PA's HUMAINT into account.

That is on the basis of a conventional IAF attack but I think there is not going to be such a war in the future, and if there is the IAF will not be used first but it would be a wave of Brahmos missiles to neutralise Pakistan runways, SAM sites in the first instance.

 

[notorious_eagle]

That is on the basis of a conventional IAF attack but I think there is not going to be such a war in the future, and if there is the IAF will not be used first but it would be a wave of Brahmos missiles to neutralise Pakistan runways, SAM sites in the first instance.

That makes sense, using CM's.

Just one more point. It's not easy neutralizing Runways in just one salvo, because after salvo repairs start immediately.

 

[Indrajith]

Well done Oscar ... very good simulation and most of the parameters has been taken into account

And I think , in future in case of such happening India may do a two front attack - 1 through proxies or regulars in Afaganistan and later the ariel attack from the main land

 

[Dr Gupta]

That makes sense, using CM's.

Just one more point. It's not easy neutralizing Runways in just one salvo, because after salvo repairs start immediately.

No it will not be easy especially as they will be well guarded but if there was repair work being carried we could potentially launch another wave of Brahmos missiles which would hinder the repairing of runways. EMP bombs also could have some benefit in a initial attack.

The real advantage is eyes in the skies, spy sats in particular these monitor troop movements, missile activity and PAF aircraft being geared up. The next war (God forbid) will be net centric and information is key in such a battle not quantity.

Who wins the speed war will strike the first blow, India did learn a fair bit from US invasion of Iraq and the tactics adopted. AESA on IAF is also key, if the Tejas get's the Israeli one and Rafale comes into our airforce this linked with the AWACS will give India a advantage in the sky.. the reason is our AWACS can stay well within our borders and still monitor Pakistani airspace.