Walton is not going to be exactly an export success now since it still needs to consolidate in the home market. Remember fridge sales were 1.4 million units last year and forecast to grow to 1.7 million units this year.
FMCG is largely a captive protected market given BD has perceived it to be worthy of protecting with high tarrifs and NTB's. Fair enough since the growth is at early stage. But that means exports are long way off to becoming competitive even after there is better supply chain.
Where such protection is not afforded (given lack of own know how and supply chain), BD simply is not getting any foothold...its not going to change much either.
As regards cycles, don't worry too much about that as Walton has the most experience in consumer durables like fridges and TVs and will need some time to develop it's technology to a level where it can make more headroom in the BD domestic market for motorcycles.
Has to actually happen in some small scale first. This is where RnD and patents illustrate something even developing to take on in future. Next to none of it happening. What little Walton has acquired is basically what others developed already and its not competing so well because of it. Fridges and TV's come easy because the captive market model is justified on small base and semiconductors and PCB's are largely ready made already in East Asia and simply imported for final assembly with whatever parallel requirements you can more readily make. But how to tell its captive domestic market only? Just need to look how much is exported (in arena of full open competition). Near 0. Indian electronic and FMCG sector is not much different in this phenomenon to BD, but larger per capita (in total and value added) since it started earlier. But the real difference is Indian vehicle sector as far as manufacturing is concerned....because of full OEM bargaining based on demand profile set up in the 80s and early 90s (with largely Japanese and South Korean investment and know how). BD has none of that leverage and wont have it for long time...and it has to also compete against the headwinds of existing suppliers when it does.
Thus actual vehicle OEM manufacture is much more difficult, you need MSME base that can massively produce high-fatigue resistant components and supply at competitive price....this needs to be organically grown by demand being massive so you get that tech base in place and refine (none of which can be done overnight like what ppl here were projecting for BD so many times)....that further providers utilise down the road. It is why BD only assembles some SKD and CKD so far....and largely imports (used japanese and ASEAN cars) for most of the 20k car per year requirement....this needs to be well past 100,000 mark to get some OEM deal.
BD government is making a massive effort to set up EPZs in order to diversify the economy. In the past the lack of interest fom foeign investors was due to poor infrastructure and constant strikes. With the extra billions that China is pumping into BD infrastructure(yes currently China is building a near 2 billion US dollar coal fired 1GW+ power plant in BD and already approved funding for another one) more companies will be attracted and set up shop in one of these EPZs.
Ok but this is no guarantee of anything. Need EPZs operating for 5 - 10 years with a dedicated trend and data to make any comment on the success. Things are still so early and will it be enough to hedge against pressure from LDC quota ending for textiles? i.e how will the realised mid-cap investment windows shape up (which are very reliant on momentum, quality labour supply and bureaucratic reform process)....and esp competing with more countries in the mix compared to before (when 1st asian tigers did the model in cold war, learning from japan). Have to see.
Sorry your hope of crash and burn for the BD economy is not going to come true.
Seeing you are from BD, of course you must say it and also believe it. Also I am not predicting some big doomsday scenario either....its just that the growth will be more drawn out and stay reliant on being a basic follower economy for much longer than most ppl here seem to think. GDP nominal growth is just a small factor in this to begin with given the applicability of such an estimate too to the base economy (only some of which is formal).
when will be LDC quota come to an end?
My estimate is 2021 at this point given BD I think is on track to start graduating process from LDC group in next scheduled meeting in 2018 (which takes 3 years after initiation to prove no reversal etc).
Remember exports to China are going up by an average of 30% a year since 2010 when the Chinese opened their markets to BD products. If we extrapolate that growth to say 2021 then BD will be exporting nearly 3 billion dollars to China in 2021.
Again have to see how it actually materialises. China for example is still exporting 3 -figure billions in RMG + textiles still (past what they internally consume)...they will look to be keeping as much as they can employment wise in the sector too given the redundancies faced elsewhere. I dont think its guaranteed smooth sailing for BD at all....it may be more of "here is some more access/quota we give you in order to help finance and account for the much larger amounts you import/loan from us". Not really a sound sustainable model for BD to grow long term (since its just financing/expansion of a CAD with much larger country)...your own base capability has to qualitatively improve and compete across the board internationally (doing that means it will immediately have multiplier effect domestically too).
I mean last time I looked at the net capital goods import of BD from China for textiles, the figures did not impress at all if the earlier claim of "capital transfer" to BD from China is to be believed (and BD taking a bigger slice of China RMG export).
Here's a reality check: no one cares. The fact you let an online forum dictate your real life response tells everyone enough about you (and several other BD members) to begin with....arrogant and sensitive....bad combination.
